Continued from part one, Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years.
If you haven't figured out by now, the Universe Draft (forgive the corny name) is a list of the top 30 young players currently at the big league level. By "young player," I mean someone who will contribute at their prime in five years.
In five years, most of today's young players will be around the ages 26-31. During that time period, most players reach a peak — whether the stay at that level depends on conditioning, injuries, and other factors (i.e. performance enhancers ... or lack thereof).
The first five picks were as follows:
1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
Four of the top five players chosen were pitchers. Much of that has to do with the great young pitching that dominates the game today, but it also has to do with the lack of great young position players. It seems that young position players are blossoming much later than today's young pitchers.
In the previous column, I had Bud Selig select ping pong balls to select the order of the picks. Though it was "random," I awarded the top five picks to those teams for a specific reason.
The Yankees and Red Sox deserve top picks because they are what keeps baseball interesting half the time. They create drama, they spend money, and did I mention they create drama? For example, the past few days were filled with Red Sox drama because the Sox didn't make a move! These two teams could literally make no transactions and still cause a stir.
The Cubs deserve a top pick because, well, you know ... the whole "96 years since a World Series win" thing.
Now you're probably wondering what makes the Devil Rays and Marlins so special. Well, I want to reward teams who have good scouting systems. Never mind a cheap owner, crappy fans, and a mediocre history. The Devil Rays are good at developing young talent. Just look in their outfield — they have Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes, and Carl Crawford. It's greatly difficult to get three guys who are that good and that young from the same farm system. But remember Josh Hamilton, their former firs-rounder? He's coming back from personal problems and he could add to their depth in their outfield, as well.
The Marlins, on the other hand, have had two fire sales in the past 10 years. And they can still boast a core of Dontrelle Willis, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Josh Willingham, and Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins' payroll this year is $14.3 million — and no, this isn't a typo. They have nearly a .500 record and are paying their 25 players less than the single salary of five New York Yankees. Now that's incredible.
The next five picks will be rewarded to five teams who I think have done a great job in running their organization in one aspect or another.
6. Oakland Athletics — Billy Beane and Moneyball have revolutionized the way we see the game. He gets his due at No. 6.
7. Atlanta Braves — It was a big blow losing future GM Dayton Moore to the Kansas City Royals, but nevertheless, a decade of winning should buy them a top-10 pick.
8. Detroit Tigers — They deserve credit for putting together that pitching staff they have right now. They stuck with a few young guns through rough times (Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson), developed an ace (Justin Verlander), and found a old vet to stabilize the youngsters (Kenny Rogers).
9. St. Louis Cardinals — The Cards found Albert Pujols. That, in itself, puts them in the top 10 in this columnist's mind.
10. Chicago White Sox — The defending champs are good all-around, but not great at anything. It might be what makes them good, but their pitching should get them through the next few years with exciting playoff runs.
So we'll continue the draft here with the A's on the clock. We all know what Billy Beane wants — cheap on-base percentage and underrated outs. In other words, someone who won't demand so much, but perform at a high level.
We'll discard the annoying ESPN announcers for the next 25 picks — for all our sakes. Plus, Harold Reynolds will show up to do a personal broadcast for us. If you haven't heard, Reynolds was fired from ESPN for sexual harassment. Now come to think of it, maybe we should leave him out. But then again, we did let womanizing GM Steve Phillips take center stage for a few picks...
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6. Athletics
"Here are our options boys: Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, and David Wright. There are tons of good young pitchers out there, but there aren't too many guys who get on base often," Beane says.
But with three solid hitters on the board, it becomes a matter of who has the best glove.
"Take Cabrera out of the mix, because Mauer and Wright are superb at their positions with the glove," Beane says. "And solid third basemen come along way more often than superstar catchers."
There have been five catchers who revolutionized the position — Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, Roy Campenella, and Yogi Berra. Mauer is the next in line.
The pick: Joe Mauer
7. Braves
We all know the Braves are known for their pitching. And everyone wants to get back to their glory days — or at least I do. I fantasize about returning to my little league team, striking out 21 batters in seven innings, then eating orange slices afterward ... yeah ... those were the days...
Enough of my fantasizing — it might get out of hand when Brooke Burke enters the fantasy. So we'll go on with the Braves pick.
The pitching available here is superb — Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, and Carlos Zambrano.
Braves GM John Schuerholz has always looked for guys with control — like Santana. And he's never liked players with volatile emotions, like Zambrano. But Verlander look far too much like John Smoltz to pass up. With a 100 mph heater and a great feel for the game, the pick here is Verlander.
The pick: Justin Verlander
8. Tigers
With their own player, Verlander, just taken off the board, that makes this pick easy. They haven't had a great offensive team in years, and with the genius of GM Dave Dombrowski (he doesn't get enough credit — he knows how to build a pitching staff), they won't have trouble getting enough pitching.
So the pick here is the next Brooks Robinson.
The pick: David Wright
9. Cardinals
This is where things get interesting. You have Santana, who could get hurt after he hits age 30 — and he's already 27. Then you have Cabrera, who is probably their best bet. But in a short series, there's nothing better than three front-line starters to get you through, so then we have Jered Weaver and Dontrelle Willis to consider.
What's amazing about Willis is that he's only 24. He's already done so much in the league, yet Willis still has a ways to go in becoming a great pitcher.
The Cards have never been gamblers, and Cabrera looks like a sure thing at 23-years-old and no injury problems.
The pick: Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox
Who is the most unhittable starting pitcher in the game right now? Many would say Liriano, but I'd take Santana over Liriano — for now. Santana has proven he can stay healthy, and at only 27-years-old, it looks like he can have the longevity needed to stay that way for five more years.
The White Sox know from their past that they can win without a great offense (look at last year), and Ozzie Guillen knows how to find ways to score. But you can't teach pitching, and these teams are getting scared that they're going to be ousted by a team with two great front-line pitchers.
The pick: Johan Santana
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There are still a handful of potential superstars left, including Carlos Zambrano (already the NL's best pitcher), Dontrelle Willis, and Jose Reyes.
There were a lot of doubters on the Red Sox pick of Felix Hernandez (who was later traded to the Yanks), but trust me, folks — Hernandez is for real. In a recent ESPN the Magazine, Eric Byrnes said he never wanted to face Hernandez again. Most hitters aren't too afraid of seeing young pitchers, but Hernandez's stuff is that filthy.
The next five picks will be as follows:
11. New York Mets — Props for developing Jose Reyes and David Wright. But they drop to 11 after trading away Scott Kazmir.
12. Cleveland Indians — They are finding a nice combination of players to fill their lineup, but these guys can't seem to win. It's like the movie Major League — except their owner gave them everything and the team did nothing. But still, they get this pick for finding their share of gold.
13. Minnesota Twins — They always find a way to win, and nowadays, they've got Santana and Liriano to pave the way. One more solid starter, and this team might be unbeatable in the playoffs. Plus, the Twinkies found both Liriano and Mauer — wow.
14. Toronto Blue Jays — J.P. Ricciardi was supposed to be the next Billy Beane. But instead, he goes out and spent money on guys who aren't exactly performing (A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan). But he's trying, and ownership is giving them support. For that, their in the top half of the draft — but barely. As long as he stops going after players with initials as their first name, I think he'll be fine.
15. Los Angeles Angels — Ever notice that the Angels have the third highest payroll in baseball? Me neither. They have a good team, but for $100 million, they should have a better team. But still, it's the middle of the pack for the Angels.
Stay tuned for five more picks next week, and check out pick Nos. 1-5 in the archives.
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