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August 31, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: New York Giants

Last Year

After starting seven games as a rookie, Eli Manning was handed the keys to the car in his second season. The Giants weren't sure what to expect, but they surrounded him with several offensive weapons that supported him and helped return an NFC East crown. The Giants have made improvements to their defense, but once again, all eyes are on the younger Manning to determine if he's getting closer to his big brother and if he is ready to carry the team.

What We Learned From Last Year

After posting a quarterback rating which was only 7.2 points higher than his completion percentage in his rookie season, expectations were much higher of Manning in his second season.

While he only completed 52.8% of his passes, he posted a respectable touchdown-to-interception ratio (24/17), but more importantly, flashed the unique intangibles that made him the first pick overall in the 2004 NFL Draft.

Although he flashed the inconsistencies of a relatively green starter, Manning saved his best for the fourth quarter in generating several comebacks.

Out of all the quarters, his completion percentage and QB rating were at its best in the fourth period.

He had a ton of support and no one was more vital than running back Tiki Barber.

At the age of 30, the over-the-hill age for running backs, some outsiders wondered if Barber would hit that invisible brick wall. But he did the exact opposite, setting career-highs in carries, rushing yards, and per-carry average.

Barber had always been one of the better receivers out of the backfield and continued to be a safety valve for Manning, reeling in 54 of his passes.

The Giants signed Plaxico Burress in the offseason to take over as the team's number one wideout and that he did. Although he was maligned for disappearing in the playoff game against Carolina, Burress was good for 76 receptions and developed a solid chemistry with his quarterback. Along with Amani Toomer and dynamic tight end Jeremy Shockey, the offense was not short of receivers.

The front five protecting Manning gelled and proved to be an up-and-coming unit. The interior with guards Chris Snee and David Diehl was solid, while right tackle Kareem McKenzie, who was signed away from the cross-town rival Jets, secured the right tackle position.

Even with an inexperienced signal caller running the offense, the Giants were forced to rely on outscoring their opponents simply because their defense was not up to par.

While the defensive line was outstanding, the linebackers and secondary was much maligned.

Up front, the trimmest tandem of ends in Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora combined for 26 of the 41 sacks. Many people were wondering if they had lost too much weight to last a full season, but Strahan stayed fit and Umenyiora burst onto the scene with a breakout year.

In the middle of the line, New York took a flier on Kendrick Clancy, who looked somewhat mediocre in his five prior seasons in Pittsburgh. But Clancy was a stout run-stuffer and formed a decent rotation with William Joseph and Fred Robbins.

At the second level, outsiders questioned the decision to ink Antonio Pierce to a pricey contract to become the starting middle linebacker, but he quelled those concerns, proving to be a valuable playmaker. He finished second on the team in tackles, while adding 2.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions in 13 games.

Although the linebackers struggled, particularly late in the season, more of that had to do with incessant injuries than underperforming.

The secondary, on the other hand, lacked talent.

Will Peterson was slated to be the team's top cornerback, but back problems limited him to only two games. Former first-round pick Will Allen continued to disappoint with his work, leaving the team fairly thin at the position. 2005 second-round pick Corey Webster performed reasonably at times, but was obviously still a freshman, while Curtis DeLoatch was abused often by opposing wide receivers and the New York media.

Second-year strong safety Gibril Wilson quietly put together another strong season — even though his rookie campaign was shortened due to injury — and isn't going to be a secret for much longer.

The Giants have revamped their secondary, while adding a couple of playmakers on defense to complement last year's third-ranked scoring offense, but they find themselves in the toughest division in football and face an uphill climb to retain their top spot in the NFC East.

This Year

By signing veterans LaVar Arrington, Sam Madison, and Will Demps in the offseason, the Giants have by no means had a quiet downtime, but their moves have been overshadowed by the more heralded acquisitions by division rivals Washington and Dallas.

While their potent offense returns all of its starters from last season, the defense was the sector of the team that required — and received — attention.

But the question persists: have they improved?

On paper, Arrington alone figures to secure the strong side linebacking position that wasn't up to par last season, but his contract only becomes lavish if he plays at a high level. It is incentive-based and there are concerns regarding his knee, which has undergone surgery twice in the last two years. It is worth watching as it may weaken as the season continues.

But supposing that it is fine, because along with Pierce, the Giants will have two outstanding playmakers in the middle of their defense. Carlos Emmons, who is coming off a down year, will battle Brandon Short for the last role.

With Strahan, Umenyiora, sure fire first-round pick Mathias Kiwanuka, and second-year project Justin Tuck, the Giants have the deepest rotation of defensive ends and will clearly wreak havoc in passing situations, but there are concerns that most opponents will rather focus on attacking on the ground.

There are serious concerns about the interior linemen.

The Giants thought they had a verbal agreement from free agent Kendrick Clancy to return, but the Arizona Cardinals ended up signing his services.

Fred Robbins, who came over from Minnesota in 2004, has been effective at times, but not consistently enough to be full-time, and 2003 first-round pick William Joseph, who is mediocre at best, are the remaining starters. And there isn't much serviceable depth.

The secondary has introduced Madison, R.W. McQuarters and Demps this year, but they may not be a whole lot better.

Demps is a decent safety, but considering his former team, the Baltimore Ravens, who know a thing or two about evaluating defensive talent, didn't hurry to re-sign him, it might raise a red flag.

Madison is past his prime and similar to Demps, his former team wanted little to do with him. He still has decent cover skills, but has slowed down significantly. The good news is that Corey Webster should continue to develop and be much more reliable this season. McQuarters and DeLoatch will battle for nickel duties.

Gibril Wilson is an excellent all-around safety and will have to be the cornerstone of the secondary. They should be a bit better in coverage this year, but they will have to rely on a steady pass rush for support.

The offense will be the bread and butter of this team and the growth of Eli Manning will determine whether they return to the playoffs.

The Giants have the toughest schedule among NFC East teams and although they have a well-rounded roster, the Cowboys and the Redskins are more seasoned and just a little bit better.

One position that could allow the Giants to leapfrog those two teams is at quarterback.

Eli Manning has a lot of potential because, of course, he is a Manning. If he can develop into a top-five quarterback, the Giants will have a clear advantage over the Cowboys and Redskins, and will rival them for the division.

That is a pretty lofty expectation, but keep in mind that big brother Peyton truly established himself as an elite NFL quarterback in his third season.

The offensive line returns the same five characters who allowed only 28 sacks last season. They have some depth with Bob Whitfield, Rich Seubert, and Greg Ruegamer and they might need it early on, as Chris Snee is battle a knee injury.

Manning's targets all return, but they are slated to be even better than last season. Plaxico Burress now has a season under his belt in this offense and Amani Toomer looks to be in tip-top shape, but they will have some company in the slot. Second-round pick Sinorice Moss figures to be a valuable addition — when he recovers from the bumps and bruises that have limited him early on — because he adds an element of breakaway speed that the receiving corps was missing. But the real surprise has been Tim Carter, who was expected to be that missing speed demon for a couple of seasons, but has been limited by injuries. With Jeremy Shockey around, these receivers cover the spectrum of speed, outlets, size, route-runners, and possession targets.

Tiki Barber is now 31-year-old and there has to be some trepidation about a possible drop in production. It's unlikely that he will have a Curtis Martin-like drop-off after a career year in this offense, but signs of age can surprise at any point in the NFL. Brandon Jacobs got a lot of hype prior to last season and has worked with Eddie George to improve his game, but there isn't a ton of confidence in him.

A lot of unexpected things fell in place for the Giants last season to make their run and with such an arduous schedule, they can't be expected to return to the playoffs.

Over/Under: 8.5

The Giants have the weakest defense in the NFC East and that will not bode well in a tough division. Much will bank on Eli Manning's development, but the Giants will have to consistently win in shootouts again this year. They are not balanced enough to win this division again. They play: IND, @PHI, @SEA, WAS, @ATL, @DAL, TB, HOU, CHI, @JAC, @TEN, DAL, @CAR, PHI, NO, and @WAS.

Fantasy Sleeper

Tiki Barber is 31-years-old and coming off a career-year, be careful drafting him. Curtis Martin did the same thing before hitting the wall last season, so be weary of spending a high pick on Barber. Expect second-year back Brandon Jacobs to see expanded time, especially in short yardage situations, which simultaneously increase his value and decrease Barber's fantasy use.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 8:30 PM | Comments (0)

Golf and Doping: A Real Possibility

Davis Love III was recently asked about former PGA Tour star Greg Norman's calls to Commissioner Tim Finchem to institute a drug testing policy for the sport. Love said he did not want to talk about anything Norman was saying and, basically, offered little opinion on the developing issue of doping in professional golf. Finchem has denied the need for testing, along with Love and others, saying that he personally feels he is aware of what is going on in the locker rooms of his Tour stops and that drug testing would just be unnecessary.

Around the same time, Tiger Woods was asked about the subject of drug testing in golf. He disagreed with the naysayers and basically said to bring it on — that the sport could benefit from testing and it would clear the name of the game before it could ever be besmirched by vicious rumors, like Major League Baseball (which turned out to be embarrassing fact, too) was.

Of course, if you have ever read my writing, you know who I'm going to side with here. Tiger Woods, Joey Sindelar, Greg Norman, and other advocates for drug testing are right. The key part here is that they are right on multiple levels to call for drug testing and Commissioner Finchem should start listening to their logic immediately.

Let's be realistic, unlike the Commish — drug use is pervasive in sports. It was, and may still be, rampant in professional baseball, cycling (where almost everyone dopes), and exists in the NFL, despite a pretty good drug policy. With BALCO, Floyd Landis, and Marion Jones potentially damaging their sports in perpetuity because of greedy attempts to get ahead, doping and performance enhancement rumors have crept into almost every sport, including golf.

It is unrealistic to believe that drug use has not crept into this great game. After all, with the dominance that Tiger Woods has personally exhibited in the last decade on the Tour, there are a lot of excuses to try to get ahead or even survive. Woods brought to the sport a concept of fitness and diet that quite frankly did not exist before he hit the scene. This caused veterans to remind themselves of what a weight room and stationary bike look like. Despite the best efforts of many players, they continue to struggle a decade later. Thus, the Tour veterans have a reason to rub on a little of the "clear."

Even the younger guns have motivation. While they largely came into their golfing own during the Tiger Era (which will span about 40 years), they still lag behind Woods in talent and physique apparently. No player under 30 has made a significant challenge to Woods on any stage other than Sergio Garcia — and even he chokes every time.

Desperate times create desperate measures. Look no further than the aforementioned Floyd Landis. The urine sample captured from Landis came right around the time of his dramatic comeback stage in the Tour de France that closed an eight-minute gap and nearly secured the title for the American. Who is to say, especially the Commissioner, that any player in any tournament would not consider doing the same thing if they believed it may help their chances?

If the Tiger-desperation argument does not do it for you, then here's something else to consider. The way professional golf is played has dramatically changed in the past 10 years and at an accelerated pace in the last five. Anyone with half of a brain can recognize that golf is now a power game, thanks to innovations in club and ball technology. Players that cannot keep up are generally left in the dust on typical Tour layouts that measure anywhere between 7,300 and 7,500 yards.

The statistical, physical, and psychological disadvantage that shorter hitters face off of the tee and from the fairway must be incredibly daunting. Corey Pavin managed to find a way to win, but on one of the easiest and shortest courses on the Tour roster. He is an exception to the short hitter's dilemma — not proof positive that every distance-challenged golfer is playing by the rules.

The bottom line in all of this is that golfers do not make guaranteed money on Tour. Their livelihood is entirely based upon their ability to play well and earn money in the tournaments they play. If they fail, they lose their card, have to play smaller tours, and are forced to have a much less lucrative lifestyle than they are accustomed to after being on the PGA Tour — where the 125th finisher on the money list in 2005 made a little over $625,000.

No one could seriously tell me that they would not be willing to experiment with performance-enhancing drugs when there is that much money out there to be won and there would be little to no chance of getting caught. Other than the potentially dangerous side effects of such a move, there really is little reason for a player to not give it a shot.

Perhaps the most compelling argument for this recent outcry for drug testing in golf is the prevalence of rumors that players are doping. Most rumors outside of Hollywood have some basis in reality and they only continue to remain active if someone knows or believes the rumors to be true. I am not indicting any Tour player to say that they are illegally trying to enhance their performance. But it is hard for me to believe that rumors of golf doping popped up out of nowhere, have no basis in fact at all, and can simply be denied out of the news.

The rumors and whispers will not go away until the issue is addressed in the open by Tour officials without blanket denials of a need to take responsibility or the potential for a serious problem.

The Tour may gladly choose to blame the USGA for the lack of effective equipment regulation and would have a legitimate argument for doing so. On the issue of devising and implementing a comprehensive drug-testing program, though, the Tour has no excuse.

With the rumors flying, the level of competition and money never higher, players have every incentive to consider taking illegal drugs to improve their play. It could mean the difference between an appearance in invitational events, the majors, or those free paydays called the World Golf Championships. As equipment regulations stall, any host of players could be further left to forage for scraps, while technology, age, and/or fitness issues make a cohort of golfers essentially irrelevant to the proceedings.

The answer is undeniable and simple: the PGA Tour must pilot a drug testing program in 2007 and create a full program for the 2008 season. It is the only way to guarantee to fans, the media, and other golfers that the sport we all enjoy and play with such passion is not being tarnished by a selfish few. Yes, these guys are good — but please guarantee they are naturally good.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 8:18 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 24

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth blew the competition away in Bristol, winning both the Busch series Food City 250 and the Nextel Cup Sharpie 500. He nearly overtook Jimmie Johnson for the Nextel points lead, but he now trails by only seven.

"If Jimmie Johnson were a planet," says Kenseth, "he would be Pluto. And like Pluto will soon be officially stripped of its planetary status, Jimmie will soon lose his status as points leader. Anyway, I plan to follow Tony Stewart's footsteps and be the next driver to win Cup crowns in both the old and new formats."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished 10th at Bristol and officially clinched a spot in the Chase, which begins September 17th in New Hampshire. However, Johnson's points lead is now only a scant seven points over Bristol winner Matt Kenseth.

"I've got Kenseth breathing down my neck," says Johnson. "While some people, like Kurt Busch's wife, may find a NASCAR driver's hot breath appealing, I find it appalling. So my goal in the next two races is to put a little distance between myself and Matt's breath."

3. Kevin Harvick — About midway through Saturday night's Sharpie 500, Harvick felt the right front air pressure suddenly go down on his No. 29 Chevrolet. Luckily, the wall was in a forgiving mood, and the damage to the car was workable. A few timely cautions and quick work by Harvick's crew, and a potentially disastrous event was turned into a near-top-10 finish.

"Usually, car meeting wall spells doom," explains Harvick. "Not this time. In real world terms, it's like the car was chocolate and the wall was peanut butter. Slam those together and you get a delicious combination, much like a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch made the biggest forward jump in the points, advancing three spots to fourth, thanks to a second-place finish at Bristol. Kyle's rise was inversely proportionate to the fall of brother Kurt, who started on the pole, but blew a transmission and finished 37th.

"I've been telling Kurt since I could speak, which happened to be after I could drive," says Busch, "that I was the better racer. Maybe now he'll believe me. Hey Kurt, see you in the Chase. Uh, maybe not."

5. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led 41 laps on his way to a fifth-place finish in the Sharpie 500 at Bristol. Late in the race, Gordon tangled with the No. 10 car of Scott Riggs, and the two had a somewhat serious discussion after the race.

"I just told Scott that we were acting," says Gordon, "and he was playing the role of Matt Kenseth, or he was going to get shoved. If he refused, I was going to smack that silly soul patch off his chin."

6. Denny Hamlin — The rookie recorded his sixth-straight top 10 finish, taking sixth at Bristol and improving his points position from eighth to sixth. He now trails Jimmie Johnson by 429 points, and while he hasn't officially clinched a spot in the Chase, it would take disasters in the two upcoming races for him to fall out of the top 10.

"It's really quite an honor to drive for Joe Gibbs," says Hamlin. "And I think he's glad to have me as a driver. Judging by the looks of the Washington Redskins this preseason, it looks like Joe's best chance for a championship is in racing."

7. Jeff Burton — Burton led 263 of the first 381 laps, but his car unceremoniously lost its handling thereafter, and he slid steadily down the leaderboard, eventually finishing ninth. Still, he gained two places in the points, and he now sits in seventh, 435 out of first.

"The handling went south on my car pretty quickly," says Burton. "I felt as helpless chasing the leaders as Roscoe P. Coltrane chasing the General Lee. My pit crew had no solution for the problem ... maybe Cooter could have figured it out."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt was the biggest gainer from qualifying position to finish, coming from 40th to finish third, which boosted his Chase aspirations considerably. He moves up one spot to ninth, 448 points out of first.

"It's good to be out of the ten spot," says Earnhardt. "It's no fun being the 'Bubble Boy.' I'll gladly leave that to Mark Martin anyday."

9. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished two laps down on his way to a disappointing 22nd at Bristol, and he fell three places in the points to eighth. Stewart is 443 points behind points leader Jimmie Johnson, and 97 ahead of Kasey Kahne in 11th.

"At this stage in the season," says Stewart, "it is disappointing to have a finish that jeopardizes our Chase hopes. But it's downright embarrassing to finish behind Michael Waltrip. For that matter, behind Ken Schrader, Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil, and Kevin Lepage.

10. Mark Martin — Bristol was cruel to Martin, and his 28th-place finish greatly damaged his position in the points. He fell all the way from fourth to tenth, but is a solid 90 points ahead of Kasey Kahne in eleventh place.

"First, I get penalized for pitting out of my box," says Martin, "then I get wrecked on a lap 210 restart. Then, I find out that Jeff Gordon pitted out of his box, just like me, and was not penalized. What should I expect? I'm a rapper in Tennessee. I should expect unfair treatment."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:07 PM | Comments (0)

August 30, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: New Orleans Saints

Last Year

Disaster struck the city of New Orleans hard last season and the displaced Saints were not left untouched. Not that their aspirations were high to begin with, but the burden of 16 straight road games and the long-term loss of home-field advantage and star running back Deuce McAllister crippled the team. Sean Payton inherits a team who is in shambles and will have to work with a three-year plan.

What We Learned From Last Year

The Saints offense had been constructed out of many inconsistent parts.

Quarterback Aaron Brooks was hot and cold, wide receiver Donte Stallworth was in and out, while the offensive line was shaky.

That's why losing Deuce McAllister, who has been the model of consistency by averaging 4.3 yards per carry over his career, was additionally agonizing.

The Saints had won two of their first four games with him, but they lost 11 of their remaining 12 without him.

The Saints were still somewhat effective on the ground with Aaron Stecker and Antowain Smith, but Brooks' play at quarterback never really gave them a chance to win.

He posted his worst season in his seven-year NFL career, setting a new personal low for quarterback rating (70.0).

Brooks started 13 games last season and only had two interception-free outings in comparison to five touchdown-free contests.

Some people and/or pundits looked at the final Saints statistics, noticed that Joe Horn only tallied 49 receptions and one touchdown and made the conjecture that his skills were deteriorating.

That may be true, but only partially. Horn was hampered a hamstring injury throughout the whole season.

Stallworth took over the reigns as the top target, raking in 70 receptions and 945 yards. It was his best season as a pro, but he doesn't look to have the consistency of a top-flight wideout.

The front five was solid across the board, starting with LeCharles Bentley, who was the best center in the league. Rookie right tackle Jamaal Brown started from the get-go and had an excellent season, while veteran Wayne Gandy was steady on the left side. The guard play left much more to be desired, though.

The Saints had a very unique defense last season. Their roster entailed very skilled players at the extremities, such as defensive end, cornerback, and safety, but had very little talent in the guts, such as the tackles and linebackers.

Although Charles Grant had a rough year, the rotation at defensive end with Darren Howard and Will Smith was one of the best in the league. For a third consecutive season, though, Howard was not healthy enough to participate in the full 16 games.

In the middle of the line, the Saints really had no penetration and no space-eaters. The defense accumulated a measly 25 sacks, good for second-lowest in the NFL, and zero came from defensive tackles. Former first-rounder Jonathan Sullivan continued to be a major bust, while the only serviceable tackle on the roster was Brian Young, who is better suited as the third man in the rotation.

As porous as the tackles were, the linebackers were much worse. Colby Bockwoldt and veteran Ronald McKinnon were steady tacklers, but have very limited speed and range. The duo of Sedrick Hodge and Courtney Watson only contributed 88 tackles.

Even with the lost of stalwart safety Jay Bellamy, the secondary was decent. They weren't as good as their third-overall ranking in pass defense might indicate, but the trio of Fakhir Brown, Mike McKenzie, and Fred Thomas were solid corners. Rookie safety Josh Bullocks looks like a stud, while cornerback turned safety Dwight Smith was the team's most valuable player among defensive backs.

New coach Sean Payton inherits an offensive with some tantalizing constituents, but a defense that is now bereft of talent at every level.

This Year

Watching the Saints in the offseason, it is pretty clear their front office is lost.

They love to get their hands on outstanding running backs, but they continually fail to address areas of need.

First they pawned a draft to get Ricky Williams, only to draft Deuce McAllister two years later. Now that they've invested $49 million into him, (and then signed Michael Bennett to a two-year contract, although that is now irrelevant), and now they draft Reggie Bush.

Bush is a special player, and it is pretty easy to give them a mulligan for snapping him up, but they could have given some consideration to trading down for a hefty ransom.

The signing of Drew Brees was the main shrewd decision by the Saints this offseason and he will be the polar opposite of everything that Aaron Brooks was.

But the astute decisions were few and far between.

Allowing Darren Howard, LeCharles Bentley, and Fakhir Brown to walk in free agency was not wise. Howard can be replaced by Charles Grant, but if he plays unreliably like he did last year, Howard will be missed. Bentley is the best center in football and although the Saints picked up Jeff Faine, he is unquestionably a downgrade.

The Saints also traded away their starting left tackle, Wayne Gandy, to Atlanta for safety Bryan Scott. While Scott might be a decent player, the Falcons were down on him last season and it was conceivable that he would be a cut.

But the Saints' infatuation with the safety position didn't end there. Already equipped with possible starters Jay Bellamy, Josh Bullocks, Dwight Smith, and now Bryan Scott, the Saints burned a second-round pick on another safety, Roman Harper, and also signed Omar Stoutmire in free agency.

Considering they are so thin at linebacker, passing up on D'Qwell Jackson, Rocky McIntosh, and Thomas Howard while drafting no linebackers whatsoever is simply unacceptable.

Instead, the Saints decided to scrape the bottom of the free agent garbage can to find linebackers. Anthony Simmons, who was a marginal talent to begin with, was handed a starting gig after missing sitting out the 2005 season. He decided to retire instead. That leaves Tommy Polley, Scott Fujita, Jay Foreman, Alfred Fincher, and Colby Bockwoldt, easily the worst starting trio in the league.

They won't get much support from the tackles, as the Saints overlooked that area in the offseason, as well. Hollis Thomas was picked up from the Eagles, but I would be very weary of defensive players they are willing to give up. See: Bobby Taylor or Corey Simon. Josh Williams and Rodney Leisle are in the mix, but this is an atrocious rotation of tackles.

Will Smith and Charles Grant are two very solid young defensive ends and they both have the potential to be top-five in the league. Smith is more polished at this point.

In the secondary, for years Fred Thomas was trying to prove that he was good enough to be a starter, but the 33-year-old is now in the twilight of his career, and is better suited as a nickelback. Mike McKenzie is overrated as a top-notch cornerback and aside from him and Thomas, there is not much depth.

The main concern defensively is that they gave up 134.1 rushing yards per game last season and led the league in runs allowed of 20 yards or longer, but they have not improved their run protection in any way, shape, or form.

On offense, the Saints have a couple of new explosive weapons to play with, but their success will be contingent on the offensive line.

Faine is a good center, who will play better in the NFC South since he doesn't have to face as many 3-4 defenses. The Saints are moving Jamaal Brown to left tackle and as good as he played last year, it is a risky move. Jermane Mayberry will start at right guard, even though he disappointed last season and Montrae Holland will start at left guard. The right tackle position is up for grabs between fourth-round pick Jamar Nesbit and Jon Stinchcomb.

This front five needs a lot of repetitions together to develop some chemistry, but they have not had that in training camp so far because of injuries. Stinchcomb, Mayberry, and Holland have all endured bumps and bruises that have limited their time together.

This is not a good sign for Brees, who is recovering from a torn rotator cuff. He will need time to throw, especially facing three solid pass rushing defensive lines in the NFC South.

Expect Joe Horn to bounce back from a down year, but the Saints still don't have a proven number-two wideout. Stallworth keeps teasing with his potential, but he disappears far too often. (Note: Stallworth was traded to the Eagles earlier this week, after this writing. — Ed) Devery Henderson also has a lot of speed, and has been running with the first team, but he drops pass frequently. 2005 Biletnikoff Award winner Mike Hass figures to be a reliable pair of hands, and eventually, a steal from this draft.

McAllister plans to return from his season-ending injury soon, but let's face it: Reggie Bush will eventually replace him as the starting running back. Two-back sets have not had a lot of success in the NFL recently and the way egos work in this league, it is only a matter of time before friction mounts.

The Saints' defense figures to be atrocious this year and even with some dazzling offensive weapons, a weak offensive line will limit their immediate value. Since the Saints only won three games last season, they will take a step forward almost by default, but all signs point to this being a very difficult year otherwise.

Over/Under: 7

With both the offensive line and defensive line figuring to be an Achilles heel, expect the Saints to struggle this season. Eight wins is going to an arduous, but once Reggie Bush usurps the starting role from McAllister, expect the Saints to play with a little more energy. Even so, all signs point to a rebuilding season in New Orleans. They play: @CLE, @GB, ATL, @CAR, TB, PHI, BAL, @TB, @PIT, CIN, @ATL, SF, @DAL, WAS, @NYG, and CAR.

Fantasy Sleeper

With a healthy hamstring, Joe Horn should be return himself among the ranks of the better wideouts in the NFL. He is typically good for about 1,000 yards and at least 7 touchdowns, but he is ranked fairly low among top wide receivers because of his off-year last season. Although Devery Henderson and Donte Stallworth are inconsistent, between the two of them, they won't allow teams to solely focus their coverage on Horn. Also, a more accurate quarterback should help.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:14 PM | Comments (0)

Just a Perfect Day

Bobby Jones' grand slam, Muhammad Ali's win over Sonny Liston, and Roger Bannister's four-minute mile were named this year among the 20 greatest individual athletic achievements. Alongside them in Forbes Magazine's rundown, stood a journeyman baseball player whose unremarkable career could be easily forgotten, but for one perfect day in 1956.

Don Larsen was born in Michigan City, Indiana in 1929. Well over six-feet tall and more than 220 pounds, he was a big, powerful athlete who could both bat and pitch. He spent 1951 and 1952 playing baseball for the U.S. military in Hawaii, where some claimed he was the best service player since World War II.

In 1953, Larsen signed a professional contract with the St. Louis Browns as a pitcher. It would be a baptism of fire. Following the Browns' move to Baltimore, where they became the Orioles, he endured one of the worst pitching seasons in history, losing 21 of the 23 games he started.

Rumor spread that his late-night antics were to blame. He was known as "night rider" and "gooney bird" amongst teammates, and had a fearsome reputation for heavy drinking. "The only thing he fears is sleep," joked Orioles coach Jimmy Dykes. In November 1954, Baltimore offloaded Larsen to the New York Yankees as a fairly inconsequential part of a large multi-player trade. It would prove a pivotal moment in his career.

The mid-'50s New York Yankees were a genuine sporting dynasty. Babe Ruth and Joe DiMaggio had gone, but a new generation of stars was driving the Bronx Bombers through the most successful period in their history. Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, and Whitey Ford were destined for baseball's Hall of Fame.

After just a few months on their roster, Yankees manager Casey Stengel became frustrated with Larsen's playboy lifestyle and shipped him out to Denver on loan. He returned to Yankee Stadium later that year, however, and helped the Bombers win the American League pennant.

In the penultimate game of that 1955 season, Larsen had a pitching revelation. He realized that by removing the elaborate wind-up in his delivery, he could release the ball earlier and upset a batter's rhythm. "The ghouls sent me a message," he said, and his trademark "no wind-up" release was born. It would soon grace the biggest stage.

The 1956 World Series brought together the New York Yankees and the Brooklyn Dodgers. It was the sixth time in 10 years that the Big Apple rivals had played for the championship. These so-called "Subway Series" had been dominated by the Yankees. The pinstripes had won four of the five previous meetings, taking their haul to 16 titles since the inception of World Series in 1903.

In 1955, however, "Dem Bums" had broken the Yankees stronghold, winning the decisive game in the best-of-seven series, and taking the trophy to Ebbets Field for the first time. The re-match in 1956 was set up to be a firecracker.

Larsen started the second game, but his new technique seemed ineffective. The rampant Dodgers scored four runs in less than two innings. After surrendering a 6-0 lead, the Yankees lost 13-8 and went 2-0 behind in the best-of-seven series.

He was left wondering if he'd get another chance to pitch, but the pinstripes clawed their way back to 2-2 and he was asked by Stengel to start Game 5. He would be up against Sal Maglie, a right-hander nearing the end of his career, who had helped the Dodgers win Game 1.

Larsen started well, striking out all three Dodgers batters in the first innings. The second inning followed a similar pattern, although this time he owed much to a slice of luck and some brilliant fielding from Gil McDonald; the Yankees shortstop caught a wildly deflected drive from Jackie Robinson, before unleashing a lightning throw to run him out. It seemed the omens were with Larsen. "By such good fortune is immortality granted," wrote Dave Kindred of The Sporting News.

In the fourth inning, Mickey Mantle's home run gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead. Larsen continued to strike out batter after batter, and by the eighth inning the Dodgers remained scoreless. Gil Hodge's cracked a line drive, but third baseman Andy Carey threw out a glove and again the ball stuck.

With just one inning left, Larsen was on the verge of becoming the first player in World Series history to pitch an entire game without allowing a single player on base. In baseball terminology, this is known as a perfect game. The tension was unbearable. "My legs were rubbery," recalls Larsen. "My fingers didn't feel like they belonged to me. I said to myself, please help me somebody."

Larsen's teammates seemed equally edgy. "Nobody would talk to me," he said afterwards, "nobody would sit by me, like I had the plague."

As Dale Mitchell walked out to the plate at the bottom of the ninth, he was all that separated Larsen from legend. The veteran left-hander let the first ball through for strike one. He swung and missed at the second; strike two. As Larsen threw his 97th pitch of the day, he stood one strike from glory. Mitchell shaped to swing, but at the last minute withdrew his bat. Strike three and the perfect game was complete.

Yankees catcher Yogi Berra was first to congratulate him. "Larsen caught Berra in mid-air," wrote legendary sports writer Shirley Povich of the Washington Post, "as one would catch a frolicking child, and that's how they made their way toward the Yankee bench, Larsen carrying Berra."

Larsen seemed dazed, as if he couldn't quite believe what had happened. "When it was over, I was so happy, I felt like crying," he said, "I wanted to win this one for Casey (Stengel). After what I did in Brooklyn, he could have forgotten about me and who would blame him? But he gave me another chance and I'm grateful."

"The million-to-one shot came in," read Povich's report. "Hell froze over. A month of Sundays hit the calendar. Don Larsen today pitched a no-hit, no-run, no-man-reach-first game in a World Series."

The Yankees took the game 2-0 and went on to win their 17th championship that year, but nothing would overshadow Larsen's performance. Almost overnight, this underachieving pitcher, more famous for his late nights than strikes, had become one of the most famous sportsmen in America.

In the following months, he signed endorsements worth over $30,000, and appeared on the legendary Bob Hope television show. He even received a personal letter from President Dwight D. Eisenhower. "This note brings you my sincere congratulations on a memorable feat," it read, "one that will inspire pitchers for a long time."

In contrast to his perfect game, Larsen's overall career was marked by mediocrity. Throughout his 14 years in the major leagues, he won only 81 of his 172 starts. His career ERA, or earned run average, was expensive at 3.78 runs per nine innings. This compares to Whitey Ford's far more economical 2.74. Seldom has a professional athlete reached such a singular peak amidst an otherwise unremarkable career.

Long-jumper Bob Beamon is possibly the athlete who can most relate in this respect. His record-breaking jump of 29 feet 2 1/2 inches in the 1968 Mexico Olympics was just as unexpected, and proved almost as hard to beat. Like Larsen, Beamon has garnered a lifetime of plaudits for just one day's work. He would never jump over 27 feet again.

But perhaps by concentrating on what Larsen and Beamon didn't achieve in terms of longevity, we're missing the point. After all, maybe they had all the enjoyment of their performances, without ever feeling the pressures of being expected to deliver them.

One wonders how many Hall of Fame pitchers would give up their impressive career stats to experience being Don Larsen on that cool night in the Bronx. Or how many hardworking professional footballers would do the same for a breathtaking run of goals on the biggest stage there is.

In reflection, even Larsen himself can see flaws in his career, but nothing will ever take his perfect game away. "Hey, I gave it my best shot," he said, "and I tried and I wish my record had been better, but I was very pleased to get into the World Series and pitch the perfect game. And I guess that is what I will always be remembered for."

After leaving the Yankees in 1959, Larsen enjoyed only moderate success, the highlight being his 1962 season with the San Francisco Giants. That year he led them to the National League pennant, before they fell to the mighty Yankees in the World Series.

Don Larsen never made the baseball Hall of Fame; nor has his numbered jersey been retired by the Yankees to hang alongside those of Mantle, Berra, and Whitey Ford. Nonetheless, his remarkable performance on Monday, October 8th, 1956 will forever grace the record books. "They can never break my record," he said once, "the best they can do is tie it."

He remains the only player to pitch a perfect game outside of the regular season. There have been seventeen official perfect games in the history of the sport, but never in the playoffs or beyond. As Yogi Berra explained, through one of his famed "Yogisms", "it's never happened in the World Series competition, and it still hasn't."

Posted by Will Tidey at 10:51 PM | Comments (0)

August 29, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: New England Patriots

Last Year

The New England Patriots entered the 2005 season as two-time defending champions, but injuries forced them to relinquish the crown. The chinks in the armor become evident when Rodney Harrison was lost for the season and the defensive performance started to deteriorate. Last year can be considered a down year by Patriots standards, but after more losses off the coaching staff and off the roster, they look like they might be headed for a down season by NFL standards.

What We Learned From Last Year

After Harrison tore three ligaments in his knee just three weeks into the season, an already-struggling defense suffered a disheartening setback. Harrison was the glue that kept a cohesive unit together and his shoes would not be filled.

With safety partner Eugene Wilson, the Pats had one of the best tandems in the league. Without Harrison, Wilson would start along with seven other strong safeties, who just never fully fit in.

But the Pats did get a surprising boost when their other defensive "heart and soul" player returned to the field as Tedy Bruschi made an improbable return from a stroke in Week 8. Already without Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer, the linebacking corps — which had typically been the strength of the defense — was experiencing a shortage.

Bruschi's return stabilized one inside spot, but newcomers Chad Brown and Monty Beisel noticeably struggled. The position used to be two-deep, but with the dearth of capable linebackers, the defense was forced to employ more of a 4-3 scheme.

The front four was better for it as it allowed four quality down linemen, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green, and Ty Warren, to get on the field at once.

While the Patriots can be effective in both sets, their 3-4 defense is the one in which they have more success.

Particularly in pass rushing, their sack ranking dropped from fifth-best to 10th-worst. As a whole, they are far more predictable in their static 4-3 rather than the 3-4 defense, where they are constantly shifting before the snap.

The play of the secondary borderline disastrous for the Patriots last season, but it wasn't fully exposed because of a soft division.

Third-round pick Ellis Hobbs was very aggressive off the bat, but once he learned the system, he became a starter opposite of Asante Samuel. It was clear that there was a lack of depth at cornerback, as well. Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole were useless.

The Patriots only finished with 10 interceptions, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL, and their cornerbacks only accounted for six.

With a lack of depth virtually everywhere on the defense, the balance of the burden was shifted onto the offense.

Tom Brady was clearly up to the task but not everyone was.

Corey Dillon was hurt throughout the year and clearly lost a step because of his injury. His per-carry average drooped to 3.5, while he finished with only 733 yards. The depth at running back was also tested and even journeyman fullback Heath Evans even started a couple of games.

Two rookie offensive lineman were thrown into the fire immediately. One by coach's choice and one out of necessity. First-round pick Logan Mankins stepped in at left guard and performed like a veteran for the most part while the team's other third-round pick, Nick Kazcur, was forced to fill in for Matt Light while he missed time with a broken leg.

With a leaky defense and an unreliable rushing attack, the Patriots were forced to pass the ball significantly more than they were used to. They averaged 257.5 passing yards per game, second-best in the NFL.

The championship Patriots had been known for stout a defense and an even offense, but last season, they were a one-dimensional offense with a fragile defense. They made it to the playoffs based on the weakness of their division, but now that Miami has closed the gap, unless they find their depth and balance, they might not be making an appearance in the postseason.

This Year

It is difficult to bet against a team that has had so much success over the past five seasons, especially with four easy divisional wins coming in the form of Buffalo and New York, but there are a lot of red flags about this team.

All-around depth was a concern last year and it is a recurring theme this year. For starters, the cornerback position still does not have much help outside of starters Samuel and Hobbs.

Eric Warfield was signed as a free agent, but he was a major disappointment in Kansas City. He has the skills to be a starter, and is the type of scrap-heap find that Belichick usually turns into a contributor, but he has a lot to prove. Free safety Eugene Wilson has been spending a lot of time playing cornerback, which doesn't necessarily mean anything other than the Pats love to be as versatile as possible, but it is not a vote of confidence to the players at the position already.

Chad Brown and Monty Beisel return and have supposedly learned a lot from their arduous first season in New England. But the linebacking unit has already lost Willie McGinest to free agency and Tedy Bruschi to a broken wrist for the rest of the preseason, which means that Brown and Beisel have to play well.

Beisel is penciled in as the starter beside Bruschi, but the only real option available to replace either two should injuries come into play is Mike Vrabel, who is starting on the outside. On a positive note, outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin is feeling completely healthy and confident, and is aiming to top his career-high sack total of 10.5.

It would have made sense for the Patriots to draft at least a few players to support the linebackers or cornerbacks, but the only help came in the form of sixth-round defensive end Jeremy Mincey, who is moving to outside linebacker, and seventh-round cornerback Willie Andrews.

With Rodney Harrison back, at least the starting unit in the secondary looks strong, but the lack of viable players at linebacker may force the Patriots back to the 4-3.

The offensive side of the ball is where most of the top end of the draft was focused and Brady will have newfound support in the form of Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson. While those two picks were shrewd, the team's third-round and fourth-round picks of tight ends was baffling.

Jackson is a project at wide receiver, but with Deion Branch holding out, he might be counted on sooner rather than later. Reche Caldwell is another scrap-heap find that will likely crack the starting lineup and contribute, but the vertical passing game is dependent on Jackson and Branch. Troy Brown is still around, but is in the twilight of his career.

Expect the tight-ends to be a big focus this year, especially with third-year tight end Ben Watson looking so strong in offseason activities. Watson is on the verge of busting out and is the most prolific pass catcher and route-runner at the position. Especially with so many trepidations at the wideout spot, expect him to get many more looks.

The offensive line figures to be stronger this season because of the exposure Kazcur and Mankins experienced last year along with the return of tackle Matt Light.

They will be relied upon to open up running lanes for Corey Dillon, who re-dedicated himself this offseason. He will turn 32 this season and should he hit the wall at any point — as many running backs do after 30 — Maroney will be ready to handle the carries. Dillon will likely give up a lot of carries to Maroney as the coaching staff would likely to keep them both fresh enough come playoff time.

The Patriots will be on to their third defensive coordinator in three years and seemingly each year a savvy defensive leader jumps ship. They've also lost their clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri, who was a rock in crunch time and boosted team confidence with several game-winning kicks. It is underrated the type of boost or dent a kicker can make in the team's spirits if he makes or misses a field goal.

How much adversity can they handle? Can the second- and third-string coaches still train journeymen free agents to overachieve?

Each year they take another hit, but last year their offense carried the 26th ranked defense into the postseason. Tom Brady is still there and a gentle schedule is in place. As long as they don't get swept by Miami, the Patriots will be back in the postseason.

Over/Under: 10.5

With yet another soft schedule, along with one of the easier divisions in football, the Patriots shouldn't have too much trouble returning to the playoffs. Ten wins may be all they need, even if the Dolphins usurp the AFC East title from them. They play: BUF, @NYJ, DEN, @CIN, MIA, @BUF, @MIN, IND, NYJ, @GB, CHI, DET, @MIA, HOU, @JAC, and @TEN.

Fantasy Sleeper

Many pundits are pointing to Laurence Maroney as the sleeper on this offense, but with a re-dedicated offseason, it doesn't look like Corey Dillon will relinquish his primary role. The real sleeper here is tight end Ben Watson, who should become a focal point without many capable wide receivers present. He is a gifted tight end who can line up in the slot and beat secondaries with speed or power. Expect him to become a reliable fantasy component this season.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 8:25 PM | Comments (0)

Landslide: Who Wants AL Playoff Spots?

Take a look at the MLB standings in any newspaper today. The numbers you'll find, especially in the streak and last 10 games columns of the page seem to have been compiled by someone quite dyslexic.

The Detroit Tigers, baseball's surprise best team at 82-49, have dropped seven of their last 10 games (as of this writing). The reigning champs from Chicago are only 4-6 and have fallen out of their wildcard spot with surging Minnesota finally overtaking them. The mighty Yankees have dropped four of their last six on their latest West Coast road trip. Yet it is their rivals, the Red Sox, who have been the most fearless freefallers, dropping nine of their last 11 contests.

Incredibly, most of baseball's American League powers seem quite content in giving each other a good head-start going into the final home stretch in September. You may ask, who is taking all these wins away from such powerful teams? The answer provides a list of teams who have little more than pride (and, well, contracts) to play for.

Over that same stretch, the Cleveland Indians have gone 7-3 in that stretch, as have the Orioles. Neither team can even see .500 with a periscope if it could zoom into next week. Seattle has just taken five out of six against the Yankees and Red Sox, delivering Boston's their second sweep in three series. Perhaps the only good team actually having a good week is the Angels, also winners of seven out of their last 10. The only problem with that is that L.A.'s new half-team is still 5½ games behind Oakland for the AL West lead.

Some of this can be explained, some of it must be chalked up to the random quirks of a 162-game season played out in three- and four-game series by five-man pitching rotations. Some funny streaks can compile. (Some of you may be looking for me to explain here how the weaker teams have managed to rise up and win so many games. I apologize to those, but such teams, with the possible exception of the Angels, who are still very much alive, will be ripped clean from the baseball landscape in a month. I know I wouldn't really feel much like reading much in-depth analysis of out-of-contention teams with losing teams in late August unless I was a fan of said team.)

Perhaps this trend is a mere extension of the shockwaves from the most memorable event out of all these winning teams that lose. It was a week ago that the Yankees went into Fenway and socked around the offensive-minded Red Sox for five surreal contests. For one endless weekend, Derek Jeter out-clutched Big Papi's home runs with dinky opposite field singles, two of which proved to be game-deciding slaps.

Boston was thus exposed as having anemic starting pitching and middle-relief that more than vaguely resembled manure. Their offense was basically limited to two players, and you know who they are. Yet the Yankees have often had those same accusations leveled at their hurlers over different stretches of the season.

Quality relief pitching is, by design, rare and fleeting, just ask the White Sox, whose same relievers that won them the championship have, much like milk with an expiration date of '05, gone sour. Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland appear to have been little more than one-year wonders rather than rising stars. Yet due recently to the emergence of Jermaine Dye in recent weeks, the White Sox are still very much a threat, and indeed they are only a ½ game out of the wildcard spot.

And what of Detroit, baseball's underdog darlings? They have found a winning formula for the first four months, but they are still young pups. Rising stars like Mark Verlander and Curtis Granderson along with the players and coaches around them are working with uncharted talent. Little is known about their ability to keep their poise down the stretch or remain consistent over a long, grueling season. This idea that many critics posed has finally caught up to them.

Before the Tigers' 3-7 stretch, they had another streak of five straight losses in mid-August. The White Sox, despite having problems of their own now, played a large part in both of those streaks, winning five of six from the Tigers and gaining valuable ground in the process.

Now the Tigers are in for a fight for home-field advantage, and maybe more. Previously unchallenged, they only have a four-game lead on the Yankees for best record in the American League, with a three-game series at Yankee Stadium to beginning Tuesday. Minnesota is five games back and Chicago 5½, so certainly if the Yankees manage to catch them, they will be brought back to the pack, and perhaps it may be the Tigers that get fed to the lions.

The question remains, though, who will strike that blow? If this is a five-team race for those three spots (AL East, AL Central, and wildcard), it seems that all contestants in the mix are stumbling on top of one another with their shoelaces tied together. If this trend continues, it may in fact be the surging Twins who take the Central.

Minnesota is a team that has not struggled recently, have potential batting champion Joe Mauer anchoring their lineup and Francisco Liriano, the second half of Minnesota's twin killers on the mound, on reserve to return soon. Out of the conventional powerhouse AL teams and the way they have been currently playing, who is currently capable of stopping such a team with a healthy Liriano?

If one thing is certain in the AL, it's that Robin Hood would have loved these past few weeks.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 8:12 PM | Comments (0)

August 28, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Minnesota Vikings

Last Year

Under Mike Tice, the Vikings had been a team that started their seasons hot and finished cold. In 2005, the opposite proved true as Minnesota slumped early on its way to rock-bottom before re-asserting themselves with a six-game win streak. Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Mike Tice, and the sex boat scandal — which Mewelde Moore still knows nothing about — are all history as the team searches for a new identity under head coach Brad Childress.

What We Learned From Last Year

There were few bigger frauds in the NFL last season than the 9-7 Minnesota Vikings.

Exhibit A:

Record against winning teams: 2-6.

And one of those wins came against Chicago in Week 17, when the Bears rested most of their roster.

Their 1-4 start is the telling tale.

Their problems started in the offseason, when it became clear that Pro Bowl center Matt Birk would not be able to participate in the coming season.

Tice previously had a background as an offensive line coach and during his time in Minnesota, the front five was decent.

Last year, it crumbled from the inside out and it all started with the loss of Birk. The Vikings tried to plug in Cory Withrow and Melvin Fowler, but both players failed. Compounding the issue, both guard positions were weak and left tackle Bryant McKinnie had a down season.

This was bad new for Culpepper right from the get go, who was sacked at a David Carr-like pace, 31 times in seven games.

The offense was crippled with a porous line, but the secondary factor was the ripple effect of losing Randy Moss.

The Vikes had taken him for granted somewhat. Without him on the field, they saw many more eight-man boxes and safeties played closer to the line of scrimmage than ever before.

The small, speedy running backs had needed that extra space that Moss helped provide to squeak through lanes, but with such a crowd up front now, it was pretty hard to move the ball on the ground.

Everyone is quick to point out that veteran Brad Johnson stepped in and made lemonade out of the lemons, but keep in mind he faced the soft part of the schedule.

Excluding the Carolina game in which the Culpepper was hurt and the final game of the season, where the Bears rested their starters, take a look at the difference of opponents the two QB's faced:

Culpepper's opponents were TB, @CIN, NO, @ATL, @CHI, GB (four of which finished with non-losing records) had a combined winning percentage of .500.

Johnson's opponents were DET, @NYG, @GB, CLE, @DET, PIT, @BAL (five of which finished with losing records) had a combined winning percentage of .421.

Johnson was a caretaker when he cracked the lineup. He didn't dazzle, and he didn't razzle, all he did was avoid turnovers.

On defense, the Vikings didn't exactly overwhelm, either.

By using two of its last three first-round picks on defensive ends, it was expected that Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James would anchor both spots in the coming years. Udeze was limited to five games and one sack last year while James had a productive rookie year, with four sacks.

Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell toyed with the 3-4 defense at times, switching back and forth. Pat Williams helped anchor the nose tackle position and even though the Vikings seemingly didn't have the personnel for the switch, they played better as a whole in the 3-4.

With Fred Smoot, Antoine Winfield, and Brian Williams manning the corners, the Vikings looked to have one of the better units in the league. But Williams, who was the lowest-paid, was the best starter. Winfield and Smoot had uncharacteristically poor seasons.

On the flipside, safety Darren Sharper was a stellar find. The Vikings helped themselves and weakened a division rival and the Packers sorely missed him.

Minnesota is stocked with a lot of good talented players on defense and is blessed with a strong offensive line. That alone should get them to the .500 mark, but their offense is still a few bricks short of a load.

This Year

For the first time in nearly 10 years, the Vikings will not be looking to the offense to carry the team on their shoulders.

Without anymore explosive weapons, the offense will be pretty basic.

After experiencing a season with faulty front lines, the first order of business was to secure the front line.

Both guard positions were vastly upgraded when Steve Hutchinson was signed from Seattle and Artis Hicks was acquired from Philadelphia. Hutchinson is as good as it gets at left guard while Hicks, who was a left guard before, will have to get used to the right side. With Birk returning from injury and McKinnie returning from a down season, this starting five will be much stronger.

With soon to be 38-year-old Brad Johnson starting at quarterback, they have to be.

Since Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason essentially duplicate each other and are not capable of handling 20-25 carries per week, the Vikings sought out a running back who could.

The answer they came up with was Chester Taylor, but it's unclear if he can be a solution. He's really a vanilla running back without breakaway speed and he's never handled a full-time role in the NFL. But he hits the hole well, is somewhat elusive, and has a good pair of hands as a receiver. Behind this offensive line, he should be above average.

The passing game will also have a much different look. Johnson will be the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL this season and while he played janitor well in a “can't lose,” no pressure situation last season, his task becomes more difficult now that he is being relied upon for wins. At this age, concerns of fragility and effectiveness will persist throughout the whole season.

There is talent to throw to at the wideout position, but consistency is a different story.

Koren Robinson had a Pro Bowl season as a special teams returner and was slated to be the top target until he had an alcohol relapse. It is unlikely he'll have any major role as a receiver this season.

Last year's top receiver, Travis Taylor, performed similar to how he did in Baltimore, teasing here and there, but not good enough to be a starter. Another question mark is 2005 first-round pick Troy Williamson. He will undoubtedly take strides forward this season, but considering he totaled 24 catches and 372 yards, that's not saying much.

If Childress' offense looks similar as it did in Philadelphia, the Vikings should be able to move the ball. The wideouts on this team are decent route-runners and if that's the focus within the 10-15 yard range, although they will be somewhat compact, they will move the chains.

The offense does not have much big-play capability and although that figures to be the Achilles heel, with a savvy veteran as their quarterback, they likely won't put their defense into difficult situations.

Mike Tomlin takes over as the team's defensive coordinator and he brings with him the Cover 2 scheme. Not too many players on this defense have experience with the scheme, so there figures to be an adjustment period.

Dwight Smith, who takes over at strong safety for the injured Tank Williams, has played in this system in Tampa Bay and his role along with Darren Sharper will be vital.

The biggest question mark remains among the linebackers, where the Vikings will be without first-round pick Chad Greenway. He was drafted specifically for this scheme and his ability excel in pass coverage would have immediately planted him as a starter. Without him, the Vikings are left with E.J. Henderson, Napolean Harris, Dontarrious Thomas, and Ben Leber, none of which shine in pass coverage.

It is fairly unlikely that Fred Smoot and Antoine Winfield, two of the games premier cornerbacks, will have depressing seasons once again. Winfield's vigor in run defense should be a plus for this scheme.

For the Vikings to be very successful this season, they will need their young starting ends to blossom. Udeze was on that pace, notching five sacks in his rookie season, before injuries cut his season short last year. James is an explosive rusher and should take another step forward this year.

The Cover 2 scheme places an emphasis on lighter, faster defensive linemen, so Pat Williams may not exactly fit the mold. He will still be effective in running situations, but he is not as nearly well-rounded as starting partner Kevin Williams.

The Vikings figure to be a decent team with a limited ceiling this season. They probably won't beat themselves often and will be stout defensively for the most part, but they don't really overwhelm in any one aspect of their game.

Over/Under: 8

The Vikings might give the Bears a little bit of a push for the division, but their offense looks far too limited to knock them off the top spot. With a sexy prospect in Tarvaris Jackson, if the team struggles at any point, they might sacrifice this season in order to start his development. They play: @WAS, CAR, CHI, @BUF, DET, @SEA, NE, @SF, GB, @MIA, ARZ, @CHI, @DET, NYJ, @GB, and STL.

Fantasy Sleeper

Chester Taylor may only have average skills as a runner, but behind this stout offensive line, he should be productive. With an aging quarterback and limited targets, the Vikings figure to be more run-oriented on offense. He may not be flashy, but he will be good for 1,000 yards.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 8:31 PM | Comments (0)

Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years (Pt. 5)

Continued from part one, part two, part three, and part four.

When things really matter, people stop taking stupid risks and start making smart decisions. And in the NBA and NFL amateur drafts, things really don't matter as much. The players are scouted since middle school, but when draft day comes, you're always bound to find that team that picks Michael Olowakandi with the first overall pick. Things just don't matter as much because he is simply one player on a team.

So, what does this have to do with the "Universe Draft" (and by the way, I am still regretting that name)? Well, because teams are building their teams from the bottom up, things really do matter. And though I may not have simulated the draft as accurately as possibly, most players selected aren't too risky.

But there comes a time in the draft when you definitely have to choose between potential and proven talent. In this portion of the draft (picks Nos. 21-25), teams will have to choose between Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Utley, or Rickie Weeks and Nick Swisher.

Here are picks nos. 1-20:

1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
6. Athletic — Joe Mauer
7. Braves — Justin Verlander
8. Tigers – David Wright
9. Cardinals — Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox — Johan Santana
11. Mets — Jose Reyes
12. Indians — Grady Sizemore
13. Twins — Dontrelle Willis
14. Blue Jays — Jered Weaver
15. Angels — Ryan Howard
16. Astros — Carlos Zambrano
17. Reds — Hank Blalock
18. Padres — Mark Texeira
19. Diamondbacks — Brandon Webb
20. Mariners — Adam Dunn

And with that, let's get started:

21. Phillies

Is it worth taking a second-tier pitcher with a first round pick? Some might say yes, because after all, Josh Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, or Matt Cain might turn into a No. 1 starter ... but that's a huge risk.

The interesting player here is Johnson, who clearly has the potential to become a top-of-the-line pitcher. But the guy is simply too hard to grade at this point. His rookie year could just be a fluke, and he might drop out of the big leagues after a few years.

As for positions players, Chase Utley stands out among the pack. But then again, Utley is 27-years-old and plays like a maniac. That's a good thing, except that he could be an injury risk later in his career.

Ryan Zimmerman is 21-years-old, he is having a solid rookie year, and he is a good defensive player. Mulling over the options, Zimmerman seems to have the best potential, but at the same time, he is a lower risk than most young players.

The pick: Ryan Zimmerman

22. Colorado Rockies

At Coors Field, many pitchers were useless because of the altitude. But now that Coors is turning into a pitcher's park (soaked balls and all), the Rockies can now concentrate on pitching instead of hoping to out score every opponent.

So looking at pitching, Josh Johnson is the easy pick here. At only 22-years-old, he also brings what Zimmerman brings: big potential, low risk.

The pick: Josh Johnson

23. Washington Nationals

In the moment, playing hard is great. In the long-term, playing hard isn't so great. Andruw Jones always says that he doesn't try to take stupid risks diving for a ball that could end in an injury. He figures that he can help a team more by staying in the game a few more games, than making an extra out or saving an extra out.

Chase Utley is that all-out kind of player, but does he take stupid risks? Well, it's hard to do at second base, and in five years, he'll be 32-years old — an age where injuries start to creep up on guys, but not an age where you have to deal with a Barry Bonds-like joint.

At the least, you get a great leader in the clubhouse. At most, you get a hall of fame second baseman.

The pick: Chase Utley

24. Los Angeles Dodgers

There's one guy I can't quite figure out: Alex Rios. The 25-year-old is tearing it up for the Blue Jays, but he came out of no where. Is he really that good? Is this considered high-risk or low-risk?

For now, I'll call his great year a fluke and move on.

Los Angeles needs a scrappy player who is willing to energize the town and have a Hollywood attitude. Many of his opponents say this next guy could be a hall of fame hitter — but they also hate it when he hits the ball because he's such an ass about it.

But it's Los Angeles, so it's cool.

The pick: Nick Swisher

25. San Francisco Giants

Quick question: what is the most important position on the diamond, not including the pitcher? For me, it's easy — the catcher.

Just ask the Red Sox how Javy Lopez has been doing behind the plate — they sorely miss Jason Varitek.

At this point, finding the best young catcher might be a good idea — after all, handling a pitching staff and producing at the plate can be tough work, and not many players can do it. There are two options: Russell Martin or Brian McCann.

Martin is older, but he's coming on as a strong team player. But McCann was so good that he made the all-star team this year — as a 22-year-old! For me, this pick is easy. Though Martin could be a better hitting Varitek, I'll take McCann. He's something special, and someone who is overlooked.

The pick: Brian McCann

The next five picks are as follows. They have basically been pathetic, which puts them at the bottom of the draft:

26. Texas Rangers
27. Milwaukee Brewers
28. Baltimore Orioles
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Kansas City Royals

Posted by Alvin Chang at 8:16 PM | Comments (0)

On-Court Coaching: Good For Tennis?

The experiment is three quarters over, and the preliminary results are in. On-court coaching during Sony Ericsson WTA Tournaments was a success. Well, at least a success in the way it was implemented and there were no major issues that came from it. The statistics just arrived yesterday on the early effects of coaching. Overall, in matches where only one player used the on-court coaching privilege, those players actually won only five matches, or 24% of the matches, that pitted coached players versus non-coached players.

Now it is still in its infancy, but the early results seem to say that on court coaching really doesn't make a difference. I did a quick look at the draw, and overall, the better player won the match most of the time. It would also be reasonable to expect a lower-ranked player or younger player on the tour would benefit most by the coaching and use the coaches more. This seemed to be the case, as well.

The singles and doubles draws all allowed coaching, and while coaching was used in about the same amount of matches (71% for singles and 77% for doubles), the success rate for doubles was twice that for singles. Yep, doubles players who chose to use a coach won 50% of the matches where they played teams that did not exercise the option. Better, but still not earth-shattering. Looking at the doubles draw, I don't think that you would have seen any difference in match winners, either. The teams in the draw had quite a bit of parity in ability.

Right about now is where I normally would insert a quote or two from the players that showed the pro and con side of the issue. Instead, I'll add my personal experience as a high school and college coach to really dig into the issue. High school and college team tennis allow on-court coaching all the time. In some leagues, you can even coach between points as long as it doesn't interfere with the flow of the match. Great idea, but if you took statistics, I bet you would find the same success rate as the WTA players did.

The coach can only do so much, especially during a match. A coach can inspire a player or motivate them when the player loses focus — worth about a game a match with rare exception. A coach can also provide an objective view of how the player is playing — worth about a negative game, as most players either don't want to believe what the coach is saying or they immediately go out and try to prove the coach wrong.

A coach can give the player an evaluation of how his or her opponent is playing, and some suggested tactics that might turn the match in his or her favor. This is worth a game, maybe a set if the player actually listens and executes, but usually, players have a hard time changing their game or style of play and in short order, fall back into the old habit(s) that had them in a hole in the first place. I'll admit I've tried everything from discussing match tactics to bribing players with chocolate on court. Truly, there is not much a coach can do.

It's no surprise to me that in the early stages the coaching hasn't made much of a difference. Over time, it may begin to have a greater effect, but for now, it won't yield more than one or two matches where a player of a lower rank or ability pulls some sort of upset. I don't really think that was the true motivation of the WTA tour and this experiment was really aimed at some other purpose.

Anyone who watches a match, especially live, can easily tell that there is already a lot of coaching going on during matches. Television cameras often catch coaches giving signals to the players, and if you watch any Maria Sharapova match, you can probably hear Yuri Sharapov yelling code or signals to his daughter. I wish I understood Russian better. Then I'd know for sure. Television cameras also find players looking to the stands after almost every point. Now, if you aren't being coached in any way, why would you continually look to the same spot in the stands after every point? I think you all see what I see.

I have spoken over the past couple of years with many WTA Tour players. None of them were ever willing to go on the record about the coaching from the stands, but several did let me know about their displeasure with what they feel is coaching from the stands, from not only Maria's dad, but also several other foreign players' coaches. I can't blame them, but fortunately as the experiment shows, the overall effect is probably negligible. That is negligible if you can focus on the match and silence the voices from the stands between your ears.

Which brings me to the point of the story. The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour embarked on this little journey not to enhance the game for the fan, nor to bring a new element to the court. The move to on-court coaching was solely to try to silence the Sharapovas in the stands and get some control over what both the tour and the players already know is happening illegally.

Make coaching legal and limit it to certain times and you will hear less from the stands. Make coaching legal and allow it on court and you keep the coaches close to the officials who can monitor them better. Bring coaching to the court and you now even the playing field, especially for lower-ranked and younger players who don't have the sponsorship dollars nor prize money winnings available to have a full-time traveling coach. Basically, if you make coaching legal, you silence everyone, and hopefully for good.

I was able to see one match that was coached in Montreal. I don't think it really brought much more to the game other than a slightly longer delay for start of play after a coach was called. The tennis was just as great from the WTA players, as it always is.

Don't get me wrong. I think coaching has a great chance to really bring some excitement to the court and for the fan. I can't wait until Damir Dokic gets to coach his daughter in a match with Maria Sharapova and daddy Sharapova. I'll put my money on Damir in the second round by TKO...

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 7:57 PM | Comments (3)

August 26, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Miami Dolphins

Last Year

After a messy season in which Dave Wannstedt resigned mid-flight, new head coach Nick Saban had a lot of cleaning up to do. Following a four-win campaign, the expectations were low in Miami, but Saban was shrewd, piecing together a quality coaching staff that helped the Dolphins overachieve. With six consecutive wins to end the year, along with the acquisition of franchise quarterback Daunte Culpepper, the Dolphins now have the playoffs in their sights.

What We Learned From Last Year

It took some time for Saban to re-wire his players psychologically in the early stretch of the season because they still had a loser's mentality.

The Dolphins were 3-7 after their first 10 games and had lost a couple of tight ones that playoff-caliber teams normally eek out. To name a couple, in trips to Buffalo and New England, the Dolphins were in need of a late touchdown and had gotten the ball inside the red zone, but stalled.

In making his jump from the college coaching ranks to the NFL, Saban enlisted the help of a number of savvy veteran coaches.

On offense, heady coordinator Scott Linehan called the plays, while offensive line coach Hudson Houck was paid handsomely to leave his post in San Diego.

Houck is one of the premier line coaches in the NFL and patched together a leaky unit. In his first season, he cut the sack total in half as the front five only allowed 26, fourth-best in the NFL.

Behind a strong line, the Dolphins offense finally developed a second dimension. Although the team was hindered by an average quarterback, the passing attack still climbed to 16th overall, which was by far the best in recent memory.

Frerotte developed a rapport with Chris Chambers, who set new personal highs for receptions and yardage. Chambers emerged as the go-to guy in the aerial attack and led a decent receiving group with Marty Booker and tight end Randy McMichael. Wes Welker proved to be an effective slot receiver, but the coaching staff had concerns about overusing their special teams standout.

Frerotte was a mediocre option at quarterback, but that was nothing new for the Dolphins. Compared to Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley, some people might consider him a bit of a step up. Like the rest of the team, Frerotte excelled in the second half of the season, as he threw 10 of his 18 touchdowns and only five of his 13 interceptions after October.

One of coach Saban's miracle works was convincing Ricky Williams to stop hotboxing hostels in India and return to the NFL. Although Ronnie Brown would have preferred — and could have handled — more carries, sharing the load with Ricky Williams helped his growth in his first season.

On defense, the plan was to install the 3-4 defense, but there was an adjustment period. With plenty of talent on the defensive line, the 4-3 was readily mixed in, as well. One question that persisted in the media was whether Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas would fit in to the new plan, but they did not disappoint. Thomas led the team in tackles for the ninth time in 10 seasons — and Taylor led the team in sacks — again.

The Dolphins 49 sacks were only second to the Seahawks in the NFL, as the new schemes generated pressure from every angle and every level. Fourteen different players registered at least one sack.

Veteran Keith Traylor anchored the nose and shared some time with supplemental rookie Manny Wright, who played well at times. But Matt Roth, another rookie along the line, had a disappointing season. With Kevin Carter, David Bowens, Jeff Zgonina, and Vonnie Holliday, the defensive line was one of the deepest crops in the league.

Rookie linebacker Channing Crowder had a solid first season and looks to be on the cusp of busting out. Donnie Spragan and Thomas performed well, but the Dolphins didn't really have enough linebackers to consistently play 3-4.

The play of the secondary left much to be desired as there was little stability. Lance Schulters was steady, but there was a youth movement employed around him. Youngsters like safety Yeremiah Bell and corner Travis Daniels showed promise in spurts.

The final record was little exaggerated in comparison to who this team really was. They made giant strides in 2005, but their final six wins came against softies such as the Raiders, Bills, Chargers, Jets, Titans, and Tom Brady-less Patriots.

The Dolphins now have a stud quarterback, something they have lacked since Dan Marino and expectations of winning more than nine games. With the New England Patriots taking yet another step back in the offseason, the door is wide open for them.

This Year

If Nick Saban is back-seating the President of the United States for football, you know the team must be focused.

The Patriots have long been the class of the AFC East, but have taken another few hits on the roster and on the coaching staff and they have scarce amounts of depth. The Bills and Jets are rebuilding.

This has to be the time for the Dolphins.

With Culpepper at the helm, and even with Joey Harrington backing up, this will be the strongest stable of quarterbacks Miami has seen in a while. Culpepper's failures last season had to do with the departure of Randy Moss and the injury to center Matt Birk more than a deterioration of talent. With the likes of McMichael, Chambers, and Booker, Culpepper is the catalyst that will make this offense into a serious passing threat.

The third receiving spot should be handled by polished rookie Derek Hagan, who dropped to the third-round because of a case of the dropsies while he was on display before the draft. Wes Welker will provide a spark from time to time and Kelly Campbell is a speed demon who will have a role.

Among the front five protecting Culpepper, tackle L.J. Shelton, who revived his career in Cleveland last season, will secure the left spot. Mike Pearson, a former starter in Jacksonville and Damion McIntosh, who is overpaid at $4.4M, are there for backup. The interior will be without the services of guard Seth McKinney because of a neck injury that will keep him out for roughly half of the season. He likely could have started but the bottom line is that it is very difficult to envision an offensive line struggling under Hudson Houck.

Sophomore Ronnie Brown is poised for a breakout season. He does everything really well in the backfield, but one concern is the depth behind him. The team is trying to address that in the preseason.

On defense, the whole front seven returns minus Junior Seau. Weak-side linebacker Channing Crowder is poised for a coming out party while everyone knows what to expect with Zach Thomas.

The four starters on the defensive line, Traylor, Taylor, Carter, and Holliday are all over the age of 30. Wear-and-tear should be expected, but depth is present and the team is banking on a better season from sophomore Matt Roth.

While the front seven will look familiar, the secondary has undergone a makeover.

The Dolphins and Giants swapped starters, as veteran Sam Madison will start in New York this season while former first-round Will Allen gets a new start in Miami. Both teams feel like they upgraded, but both teams might be delusional.

Madison is no longer elite and his cover skills dropped off last season. Allen didn't play up to expectations in New York, but he has lightning quickness as has more upside of the two players.

Corners Travis Daniels and Andre Goodman have some potential, but have not proven themselves as legitimate starters. That may or may not happen this year.

Rookie first-round pick Jason Allen was a little late into training camp, but the free safety position is essentially his to lose. As a whole, the secondary will be a fast unit, but there is a lot of youth and inexperience, so expect them to be picked on.

A pass rush is always a secondary's best friend and the Dolphins have to keep up their pressuring pace to lessen the burden on the younglings.

Saban has added more experienced coaches to his staff again this season, assigning former Bills head coach Mike Mularkey the offense and former Texans head coach Dom Capers the defense.

This is the most talented roster in the AFC East and barring significant failures in game-day execution, the Dolphins will be back in the playoffs. Whether they return as a wildcard or as division champs has a lot to do with their two meetings with the Patriots.

Over/Under: 9

With an opponent win percentage of .469, the Dolphins have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL. Jacksonville won 12 games on this type of soft opponent list last year, so the Dolphins aim for at least 10. They can't afford to stumble against the Bills and Jets, though. They play: @PIT, BUF, TEN, @HOU, @NE, @NYJ, GB, @CHI, KC, MIN, @DET, JAC, NE, @BUF, NYJ, and @IND.

Fantasy Sleeper

Randy McMichael has been a second-tier fantasy tight end during his four seasons in the NFL, but he has been handcuffed by incompetent quarterbacks. The Dolphins are no longer a run-based team and with the additions of Daunte Culpepper and Mike Mularkey, McMichael is ready to break out.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 8:32 PM | Comments (2)

Upon the Fields of Barlow

Between Chad Pennington's fragility in the pocket, Patrick Ramsey's inability to throw to the right uniform, and the eventual humility of watching a 35-year-old rookie coach managing the biggest reconstruction project in New York not named Yankee Stadium, I'm not sure how much joy there'll be in J-E-T-S land this season.

But Kevan Barlow ... this kid's going to be fun.

Not necessarily on the field, where he'll join a crummy committee trying to replace Curtis Martin, or at least hold the fort if he miraculously returns from injury. Four running backs, trying to fill in for the fourth-leading rusher of all time. Yeah, that'll work.

Barlow took one on the chin from the Associated Press when his trade to the Jets from the 49ers was announced: "He became the full-time starter after [Garrison] Hearst's departure in 2004, but seemed unsuited for the pressure and workload." The same article claimed he ran "skittishly" behind the San Francisco line, which makes sense when you consider that line offered about as much protection as a chain-link condom. But say "running skittishly behind an offensive line" to a Jets fan, and visions of Blair Thomas gaining 1,000 yards behind the line of scrimmage come dancing through their damaged brains.

But even if he flops as a featured back, Barlow's going to be a blast. Because he's clearly insane, and that can really spice up the party, even on an awful football team — witness Mark Gastineau and Bryan Cox, Exhibits Alpha and Beta.

I'm no clinical psychologist, but I think Barlow's somewhere between egomaniacal and flat-out loony tunes. (Hey, if Bill Frist can diagnose a comatose woman by watching clips of her on television, I can diagnose an NFL running back by reading press clips on my Internet Explorer. The only difference is that I'm not a lying douchebag who'll never be president ... I mean, I could be president one day, right?)

Barlow has been accused of mental instability throughout his career, although the NFL prefers if we say something innocuous like "his temperament has been questioned." The greatest example of this was a feud he had with 49ers fullback Fred Beasley, which nearly came to blows in a team meeting because he was convinced Beasley was a Garrison Hearst fan. Barlow even had his locker moved across the room and away from Beasley, like a third-grader scurrying away from the school bully in homeroom. Like bad marriages and wicked bosses, a locker room grudge is a Petri dish for psychosis — Barlow allegedly buried the hatchet, but the damage was done.

This preseason, Barlow went from crazy angry to just plain delusional. He refused to confirm that he was indeed going to lose his starting job to Frank Gore, who led the 49ers in rushing last season and was destroying the incumbent in the exhibition competition. In fact, when word leaked that the he was on the Jets' shopping list, Barlow steadfastly claimed the starting job was still his ... while singing along to "New York, New York" on his iPod.

After his trade to the Jets — following the team's deal for the physically-unable-to-play-for-a-4-and-12-club Lee Suggs — Barlow continued to make with the crazy. In an interview with the Contra Costa Times, he compared San Francisco coach Mike Nolan to Marge Schott's favorite world leader: "He walks around with a chip on his shoulder like he's a dictator, like he's Hitler. People are scared of him. If it ain't Nolan's way, it's the highway."

First off all, Barlow's comments were completely condemnable and outrageous. Hitler had a much better winning percentage than Nolan does.

But even with an apology this week, Barlow comes off as a brash, unstable, and ultimately bitter individual, completely consumed with his own accomplishments and ignorant of the concept of team.

You know, just the kind of guy you want around for a rebuilding year.

My concern is that the controversial levity Barlow could unleash before, during and after every loss might be muted by first-time head coach Eric Mangini, whose death-grip on team news and information dissemination should earn him a job with the Bush White House by season's end — the guy's even hesitant to give the media a depth chart before a preseason game. Mangini is truly the product of his football mentors: he's got Bill Belichick's unwavering paranoia, and Bill Parcells's man boobs.

Still, what if Mangini works some magic? As a Jets fan, this is the part of the preseason I dread — the part with the optimism, where blind hope and callous logic wage an exhausting war. We're like Cubs fans, only a lot less adorable.

I want to believe that Barlow will slide in for Curtis and run for 1,000 yards. I want to believe that Mangini's closed-door policies will result in the creation of a Patriots-like season in which the team's sum will be much greater than its parts. I want to believe that Pennington stays healthy, the defense stays consistent, and that our best shot at a Pro Bowl player isn't just our punter.

I want to believe, and for at least the first few games I will. But then it'll all go to hell. I'll turn my attention to which draft pick to boo next spring, while Kevan Barlow compares our offensive line coach to Pol Pot.

God, I love football season.

Programming Note

Earlier this year, I taped a few segments for ESPN Classic's "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame" program, a brilliant little piece of revisionist history that always makes me think while it's also making me angry.

My first appearance will be on Tuesday, Aug. 29 at 10:30 PM for the "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Steroids for the Home Run Explosion," and interesting look at some hidden factors beyond the usual performance-enhancing drugs argument. I was especially proud to revisit the juiced ball controversy, which was my first cover story for SportsFan Magazine here in DC.

Check it out, and witness the miraculous way editing can make a moron from the Jersey suburbs sound positively scholarly.

Random Thoughts

Michael Wilbon of the Washington Post — you know, the paper that stabs its sports columnists in the back when they debut as football commentators — had the most idiotic line of the week in a column about the overblown Bryant Gumbel flap with the NFL: "When the NFL Network announced that Gumbel and Cris Collinsworth were going to call games this season, it was a boon for the league. The fledgling network needs Gumbel a lot more than he needs it."

Please. There are exactly two broadcasts in which the men in the booth matter: "Monday Night Football," because of the prestige, and the Super Bowl, because of the pressure. In every other instance, the voices doing the game are secondary to the voices in the studio. That's what made Orlando Sentinel columnist Jemele Hill's flaccid critique of Tony Kornheiser on "MNF" even more useless: her claim that the ESPN booth was "unsuccessfully trying to copy TNT's studio team" on its NBA coverage. It's not comparing apples to oranges — it's comparing apples to moon rocks.

Wilbon's contention that Gumbel will somehow attract viewers to an otherwise ostracized football broadcast is at best unfounded, at worst a blatant attempt to elevate one of his self-professed media heroes into something more than a washed-up morning host piloting a little-watched cable news magazine. "How many play-by-play guys have interviewed Fidel Castro in Cuba and come into your living room live from Saigon?" Wilbon asks. I don't know, I answer, but if that had anything to do with football fans tuning into a broadcast then Morley Safer should have gotten the "Monday Night" gig instead of Wilbon's "PTI"-mate...

So the new season of "Survivor" will feature four teams segregated by race.

You know, in the past, if I wanted to see different ethnic tribes waging war in athletic competitions, I'd have to wait for the next Olympiad.

I think producer Mark Burnett missed the boat here. If you're going to base a TV reality show on battling groups of blacks, whites, and Hispanics, why not populate the teams with NBA, NHL, and MLB all-stars? There's your ratings spike, right there...

Finally, astronomers have downgraded Pluto from a planet to a dwarf, which should make the next re-release of Disney's "Snow White" very interesting...

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 8:15 PM | Comments (0)

August 25, 2006

Previewing a Potentially Thrilling U.S. Open

The U.S. Open Draw Ceremony recently took place, meaning it's high time to bring down the scalpel on what the festivities produced — a 128-man bracket laced with potential matchups to salivate over and script-defying storylines.

Looking at the draw as a whole would leave me with almost nothing to say. I could analyze it almost as quickly as chair umpires have learned to say "Game, set, match, Federer." In fact, so could you. All you have to do is look at the top name on the first page and your winner is right there in front of you in bold font.

Which is why the only way to find out what this 2006 U.S. Open will be all about is to break down the draw about as thoroughly as Federer dissects whoever happens to be on the other side of the net.

So here we go.

Top Quarter of the Draw

There are two quarters of the draw that are far and away more difficult than the others, and this is one of them. Obviously, it will be taxing journey for the 31 players in the section not named Roger Federer, but rolling through to the semifinals will be no cakewalk for the No. 1 seed, either.

The cast of characters here is nothing short of formidable, as Dmitry Tursunov, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Thomas Berdych, and hometown favorite James Blake highlight this star-studded section of the draw. Fortunately for Federer, he can face at most only two of these foes in his path to the semis. His two scariest potential opponents looming within the first three rounds are Tim Henman and Jonas Bjorkman, both of whom Roger dismantled at Wimbledon so thoroughly and unmercifully that the All-England Club faithful almost forgot they were watching an actual tennis match. In fact, if any fan had shown up more than an hour and half past the start time of either match, they would have missed the proceedings altogether.

However, it could get testy in the fourth round for Mr. Federer, as rejuvenated Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero seems poised to make noise at the Open for the first time since he upset Andre Agassi in a 2003 semifinal match before losing to Andy Roddick in the championship. Ferrero was a forgotten man until last week in Cincinnati, when he came out of nowhere to reach the finals of the ATP Masters Series tournament, where he again lost to Roddick. His run was no fluke, either. En route to the final Ferrero ran James Blake off the court, rolled Rafael Nadal in two straight tiebreakers, and crushed fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo in the semis.

As long as Ferrero can overcome Gaston Gaudio (who in five years or so will be the answer to a great trivia question: "who is the last man other than Rafael Nadal to win a French Open title?") in a potential third-round match that would feature exhausting points of grueling baseline rallies, he will meet Federer in a fourth-round clash.

The trio hoping to nab the other quarterfinal spot in this section of the draw includes Berdych, Tursunov, and Blake. Tursunov has had an outstanding summer run during the U.S. Open series and has a great chance of taking his game — and his ranking — to the next level by reaching the quarterfinals here in Flushing Meadows. The Russian would have to survive a probable third-round tilt with Berdych, whose potential is yet to be realized, but still very real, as best indicated by his 2004 triumph over Federer at the Athens Olympics.

After winning the RCA Championships in Indianapolis to begin his summer campaign, Blake has struggled mightily since, culminating in a recent first-round loss in New Haven to unheralded Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo of Spain. But with the memory of last year's epic U.S. Open quarterfinal clash against Agassi in his back pocket, Blake should be a force to be reckoned with once again in New York.

Best First-Round Matchup — Tim Henman vs. Greg Rusedski. Is it just me, or does Henman always seem to play a fellow Brit in the first round of every tournament? In any case, this should be an entertaining match that will feature big serves and hark back to the olden days of tennis when the serve-and-volley reigned supreme. Of course, nobody really cares who wins this match. After all, the winner's reward is getting disposed of by Roger Federer in the following round.

Best Potential Matchup — Federer vs. Blake, fourth round. While Federer/Ferrero could be a great match, even if Juan Carlos plays his best tennis, he probably cannot win. On the other hand, if Blake plays like he did against Rafael Nadal in last year's third round (I was lucky enough to be present in the stratosphere of Arthur Ashe Stadium and Blake put one of the most shocking displays of shot-making I have ever seen), he will give Federer more than he bargained for.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Blake's attempt to regain the magic of the 2005 U.S. Open. The last few weeks have been dismal for the American, but if any venue can bring back the best in Blake, it's Arthur Ashe Stadium. Led by the ever-loyal "J-Block," the crowd should make Blake feel right at home each and every match. Look for him to repay his legion of fans with four impressive wins before bowing out to Federer in another memorable quarterfinal.

Favorite — Roger Federer

Bottom Section of the Top Half

The top two seeds in this section of the draw will be reduced to mere afterthoughts by the time the quarterfinal match rolls around. David Nalbandian, the top-ranked player in this quarter at No. 4, drudged through an embarrassingly bad summer, so it would be a big surprise if the Argentine turned things around in time for the Open. Nikolay Davydenko, the tournament's No. 7 seed, is playing decent tennis right now, but he faces an unkind fourth-round matchup here if he is lucky enough to make it that far.

There Davydenko will play one of two sizzling players, Fernando Gonzalez of Chile or Britain's Andy Murray. Gonzalez enjoyed an awesome U.S. Open Series, reaching the semis of both Cincinnati (lost to Roddick) and Toronto (lost to Federer in one of the summer's best matches). Murray has been equally impressive of late. Fueled by new coach and former ESPN commentator Brad Gilbert, Murray pulled off the upset of the year by beating Federer en route to a semi-final appearance in Cincinnati.

In addition to Gonzalez and Murray, the third contender for this section's semi-final spot should be Germany's Tommy Haas. A former No. 3 player in the world, Haas has overcome numerous injuries and he has found the game he once had in becoming one of this year's most consistent players on tour.

Best First-Round Matchup — Robby Ginepri vs. Julien Benneteau. Benneteau is generally unknown, but he had an amazing French Open this year in his native country and could give Ginepri more than he can handle considering the young American has struggled ever since the 2005 U.S. Open, where he lost to Agassi in the semifinals. Ginepri also faces the pressure of losing tons of ranking points if he falters early on in the tournament, so this match could be even tighter than it would appear on paper.

Best Potential Matchup — Gonzalez vs. Murray, third round. A match featuring two of the game's hottest players and one that officials could send all the way to the Grandstand considering neither one is American, this would be a tennis fan's dream. The difference here could come down to fitness. Gonzalez recently stripped 15 pounds off his frame, while successfully adapting his clay-court game to both grass and hard courts, but Murray needs a lot more time with Coach Gilbert before he can even pretend to be in the upper echelon of the tour's fittest players. Look for the Chilean to advance in four entertaining sets.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Take the previous storyline and apply it to Robby Ginepri. Now subtract the "J-Block." While you're at it, also take away Blake's much more powerful game. What you get is a player whose odds of reaching anything close to another semifinal are stacked against him. But that doesn't mean the throngs of Open-goers can't hope.

Favorite — Fernando Gonzalez

Top Half of the Bottom Section

Question: what do you get when an eight-time Grand Slam champion is unseeded in a tournament? Answer: you get the tournament's hardest section of the draw, no questions asked.

When you add two more former U.S. Open winners to the same quarter of the bracket, what you get is downright ridiculous. Such is the horror film in which these 32 hard-luck participants will be acting.

If we could disregard what happened last week in Cincinnati, we would dismiss Andy Roddick as a serious contender here. But we can't, and considering Roddick's stunning transformation from everyone's favorite piñata to America's great tennis hope in the span of just one week, he is now the favorite to emerge from this quarter into the U.S. Open semifinals.

He is joined in the section by a number of other players who harbor realistic aspirations of not only coming out of this 32-man party unscathed, but going one step further to the final before playing Robin to Federer's Batman.

Ivan Ljubicic is the tournament's No. 3 seed and deservedly so, as the giant Croat has played the best tennis of anyone not named Nadal or Federer throughout the 2006 season. He reached the quarters of the Australian Open, semis of the French, third round of Wimbledon, and finals of the Masters Series Miami, where he lost to Federer in three tiebreakers. Ljubicic also added two titles to his resume earlier in the year, so don't think he will crumble under the pressure of the U.S. Open or wilt amongst a bevy of more renowned players in this section of the draw.

Lleyton Hewitt, the 2001 U.S. Open champion, has suffered through a summer marred by bad tennis and bad luck. After retiring with an injury in the second round of the Masters Series Toronto, the Aussie has foregone the rest of the U.S. Open Series to get ready for the summer's climax. You can question Hewitt's current playing form, but you can't question his heart. It's arguably the biggest on tour, so never count him out.

Marcos Baghdatis, the No. 8 seed, headlines a group of young stars looking to crash the party in this section. The Cypriot has had the kind of year most players can only dream about, and while he has cooled off slightly this summer, he's a guy nobody in their right mind wants to play in New York. Youngsters Richard Gasquet and Novak Djokovic are also capable of emerging ahead of their time at this year's Open.

But nobody will have as many eyes on him as Andre Agassi, who as everyone knows is playing in his last professional tournament of what has been one of the most storied careers in tennis history. Agassi, however, is not exactly heading into the Open as he would have anticipated or liked. After a respectable showing in Los Angeles, he suffered a horrible loss in Washington to someone named Andrea Stoppini and has taken the rest of the summer off to rest a recurring back problem. But if there are tennis gods in the same way there are golf gods in whom so many fans steadfastly believe, then maybe Agassi can somehow muster one more magical U.S. Open run.

Best First-Round Matchup — Fabrice Santoro vs. Fernando Verdasco. Neither player has had a particularly enthralling summer, but if nothing else, this match will be overdosed on entertainment. It should also be wildly interesting to tennis fans, as the contrast in styles here cannot be overstated. Verdasco will try to blow the undersized Frenchman off the court with his powerful groundstrokes, while "The Magician" will slice, angle, bemuse, and befuddle his opponent until the Spaniard's mental and physical capacities are thoroughly expended. Expect both the players and the fans to be exhausted after what could be a five-set marathon.

Best Potential Matchup — Agassi vs. Roddick, fourth round. Wow. The number and magnitude of the storylines surrounding this titanic clash could not be contained within the gates of the United States Tennis Center, much less the entire city of New York. I'm telling you, people would be walking on air around the grounds from the time this matchup is set until the first ball is struck on Arthur Ashe Stadium. While the crowd — and the world — would be rooting for Agassi, there would be no better way for the tennis legend to go out other than with a near-impossible U.S. Open title. Talk about the ultimate passing of the torch.

Agassi, the adoration of American tennis for the last two decades, could potentially play his last match against the guy who currently seems to be the only American player with a prayer of bringing any Grand Slam title to the United States before Federer retires. Not only that, but it would be played on the stage of Roddick's most glorious moment; the same place that in recent years has become more of a shrine to Andre Agassi than a tennis stadium. Oh, and by the way, fans lucky enough to be present in Arthur Ashe would be treated to some darn good tennis, as well. This match would have it all.

Most Intriguing Storyline — See "Best Potential Matchup."

Favorite — Andy Roddick

Bottom Quarter

If the U.S. Open was played on clay, the bottom quarter of the draw would be scary good. It features Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, David Ferrer, Juan Ignacio Chela, and Jose Acasuso. While each one of them has at least a fair amount of potential on the hard courts, they are all lethal dirtballers. Nicolas Almagro, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo would also be significant factors in this section if they could convince U.S. Open officials to change the surface to the soft stuff in a matter of days.

But they can't, and therefore they are reduced to mere pushovers while the draw's final quarter is relegated to the laughingstock of the tournament. That isn't to say there aren't some really good tennis players down there, but anywhere else in the draw, Rafael Nadal would have a terrible time trying to make the quarterfinals, much less the semis. Here, Nadal has almost no significant roadblocks in his path to the final weekend of the 2006 U.S. Open.

The most formidable opponent Nadal could meet before the quarterfinals is French teenager Gael Monfils, he of unlimited talent and awe-inspiring athleticism. But Monfils is probably two years away from playing a significant role in determining the outcome of a Grand Slam event.

To reach the semis, Nadal will most likely have to dispatch fellow Spaniard Robredo or Argentina's Chela in the quarters. While those two have a much better chance of stunning Nadal on hard courts than they do on clay, neither one would have been expected to attain a quarterfinal spot at Flushing Meadows prior to the draw ceremony.

Best First-Round Matchup — What this section lacks in star power, it makes up for in potential first-round classics.

Breaks of serve should be few and far between in the Ivo Karlovic vs. Robin Soderling match, so a five-setter with multiple tiebreakers is certainly a possibility.

Chela vs. Stanislas Wawrinka and Dominik Hrbaty vs. Mikhail Youzhny are almost too close to call.

If you're at the U.S. Tennis Center and fond of agonizingly long baseline slugfests, check out Nicolas Massu vs. Davide Sanguinetti or Almagro vs. David Ferrer. Both of those matches could exceed the four-hour mark.

If you have any interest in witnessing some brilliant shot-making, stop by Jarkko Nieminen vs. Xavier Malisse, Jose Acasuso vs. Paradorn Srichaphan, and Nadal vs. Mark Philippoussis. While the first two contests are virtual tossups, Nadal should steamroll the big Aussie, although Philippoussis never fails to throw in his fair share of crowd-pleasing 140 mph bombs.

Best Potential Matchup — Robredo vs. Chela, third round. Both players are heading into the Open in good shape with respectable performances at last week's tournament in Cincinnati. Robredo went all the way to the semi-finals before falling to eventual runner-up Juan Carlos Ferrero. There would be a lot at stake in this third round match as well, as neither Robredo nor Chela has ever reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. The winner of this match would be favored in the following round to advance to a potential quarterfinal clash with Nadal.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Nadal's bid to set up Nadal/Federer III. Barring a shocking upset in the top half of the draw, Federer will almost surely be a part of the second Sunday festivities on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Therefore it's up to the Spaniard to give the tennis world what it wants: a third consecutive Grand Slam final featuring the top two players in the game. Nadal won the French on his most comfortable surface, while Federer got revenge at Wimbledon on his old stomping grounds.

Here they would play on a more neutral hard surface, still giving a slight advantage to Federer, but allowing for as equal a playing field as we will ever get between these two. Having split the last two major titles, this would be a virtual tiebreaker. If Nadal triumphed here, he would deal a serious blow to Federer's stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking, both in points as well as public perception. Assuming Agassi bows out of the tournament before the dawn of the second week, tennis fans around the world will be heading to their local church service on the Open's middle Sunday offering up prayers that Nadal can somehow make this dreamlike final a reality.

Favorite — Rafael Nadal

Overall

With a final four featuring Federer vs. Gonzalez and Roddick vs. Nadal, you have got to like Federer and Roddick advancing to the championship match. Casual tennis fans who saw Federer succumb to Andy Murray last week in Cincinnati probably think Roddick has a chance of unseating Federer as U.S. Open Champion. What they must realize is that Federer had no interest gutting it out in Cincinnati in an attempt to win what would be one of several dozen Masters Series shields by the time his career done. He wanted to rest up for what really matters to him.

He didn't want to be there.

Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday, September 10th? That's where Federer wants to be. That's where he will be, and another massive piece of hardware will be right there with him.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 6:59 PM | Comments (3)

Sports Q&A: Little League: It's Foul!

Morris from San Diego, CA asks, "Has the Little League World Series lost a bit of its youthful integrity as a result of last Sunday's incident involving a player swearing and then getting slapped by his coach?"

What's this? Someone saying the "F" word and getting slapped? Is this the new season of The Sopranos? Mel Gibson on a bender? Ozzie Guillen ordering one of his pitchers to hit an opposing batter? None of the above. This is little league baseball taken to the next level, and if you don't like it, you gosh-darned better get used to it, you cotton-pickin', dad-burned piece of freaking trash. Excuse my language.

In case you're not a fan of rated R youth sports, you may have missed the Staten Island, NY player implore his team to score one more #$%&*@ run in the sixth inning of a dad-gummed close 1-0 game. His coach responded with a quick slap to the player — the player's parents quickly responded with a lawsuit. Actually, the parents haven't sued, yet. But you know they will, citing the ridiculous "humiliation on national television" reasoning.

As if being a child and cursing on national TV isn't enough humiliation, the player was soon after offered a role in Quentin Tarantino's next film. Both player and coach apologized for their actions on Monday, and little league administrators warned that repeat violations may result in suspensions. Meanwhile, all of the hundreds of little leaguers who have uttered the "F" word during games expressed regret that they weren't able to do so on live television. They also stated that if their coach slapped them, they would get aluminum of his ass.

But seriously, folks, just because some foul-mouthed kid let slip the most profane of language doesn't mean the Series has lost any integrity. Nor does the fact that his coach gave him a back-handed reprimand. In fact, the incident will increase the integrity of the Series. All ears will be on those kids to make sure they don't curse, and players will probably have to complete some silly "language sensitivity" course before they're allowed to play. Like I stated before, some of these kids have said the "F" word countless times. That doesn't make them bad kids. Heck, I was dropping the "F" bomb in the sixth grade, but I was wise enough not to do it on camera, or in front of any authority figures.

Anyway, you know that little league administrators, in their winter meetings somewhere in Florida, will enact some strict language initiative stating that any player heard saying any form of profanity will be kicked out of the game. Fair enough, right? I'm sure the kids will be all right with it. They probably get plenty of cussing in while playing their Xboxes and PlayStations, or while repeating their favorite lines from South Park, or while reciting their fave rap song. By game time, they're probably all cussed out.

But someone, maybe a parent, maybe some nerdy lawyer, will file a complaint in a court of law, demanding that these kids not have their freedom of speech infringed upon. And you know what? They'll likely win, and little leaguers will again have the undeniable right to curse at games. Hell yeah! And really, isn't that why we all watch little league baseball ... to see a 12-year-old curse? It's just too bad I don't understand any other languages besides English. Those international players have filthy mouths, but since few of us in America understand, it doesn't matter. And if ESPN had not televised Sunday's incident, we wouldn't be talking about it. But we are, and I've got one thing to say: I'm proud to be an American, dammit.

Davey from Johnson City, TN writes, "Tennessee Titans' mascot T-Rac drove his golf cart into New Orleans Saints' fourth-string quarterback Adrian McPherson, injuring McPherson's knee. The NFL decided not to sanction the Titans for the incident. What kind of message does this send to the rest of the league?"

Here's the message it sends: if your team's mascot has trouble operating a golf cart, then he should be sent in the direction of the opposing team's first-string quarterback, not the fourth-string. What good does disabling the fourth-stringer do? He's not going to make the team anyway. I'm sure the Saints were thinking, "Hey, T-Rac, where were you last year? You could have ran over Aaron Brooks and we wouldn't have complained one bit."

By the way, what is "T-Rac?" Is he a dinosaur? Is he a rapper? Neither? He's a raccoon? You don't say? Why do the Titans have a raccoon as a mascot? A raccoon is by no means "titanic." In fact, a raccoon is nothing more than a glorified rodent, just a lot cooler because it has human-like hands and likes to wash its food. And when is the last time a raccoon was last spotted in the Memphis area? If you answered "flatter than a dime on Interstate 40," then you are correct.

But onto more important matters. Professional sports team mascots generally are a no-driving bunch. And it's no wonder. It's hard to drive when your head is way too big for your body, and the only way to see is to look through your mouth. But, why not take advantage of something like T-Rac's poor driving skills. If T-Rac needs targets, here's a few.

Terrell Owens — Hey, T-Rac. There's T.O. He's pedaling like a madman, but he's not going anywhere. Do Bill Parcells a favor, and plow that runaway golf cart into T.O.'s stationary bike, and knock him all the way into practice.

Floyd Landis — T-Rac, meet Floyd. Floyd, meet T-Rac. Floyd, meet T-Rac's gof cart. It's fueled by an outrageously high octane-rated gasoline, naturally produced, by the way. And if Landis accuses you of hitting him, just deny it to the very end.

Tiger Woods — Nothing against Tiger, T-Rac, but if you wiped out Woods when he least expected, while he was leading a tournament, you would do the rest of the PGA a favor — by giving other golfers a chance to win a major. And I'm sure Jack Nicklaus would love to be in the seat next to you when you left Woods with a bad "lie."

Mark Wahlberg — T-Rac, you know Marky Mark, right? The ex-rapper who played Dirk Diggler in Boogie Nights? Are we supposed to believe he's a NFL football player? I don't think so. Isn't he about 5'3"? I also hear he has an entire wardrobe of coonskin clothing. Leave some tire tracks on him.

Bryant Gumble — T-Rac, you're a raccoon. I'm sure some of your kin have been on a leash before. Gumble seems to think NFL Players Association head Gene Upshaw was on former commissioner Paul Tagliabue's leash. I've seen Upshaw in a leash before, and let me tell you, he wasn't being led around by Commissioner Tagliabue. It was Upshaw's favorite dominatrix, who also happens to be a Raider season ticket holder. If Gumble is ran over by a golf cart and knocked down a black hole, I don't think anyone would miss him.

Sports Q&A will take a brief hiatus due to the start of the NFL season. Don't miss my NFL weekly predictions beginning Tuesday, September 5th. Sports Q&A will return in February of 2007.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:35 PM | Comments (0)

Are Ya Tough Enough? (Part 2)

Continued from part one.

So now that the lesser-known have had their day, we turn our attention to the big boys of college football. One day, the nation's toughest overall schedules could include a team you only here about as fodder. But for now, let's stick to the powers that be. So which teams will be kept up late at night thinking about their slate of opponents?

10) Georgia Tech

The Yellowjackets' schedule in '06 starts off with a couple of ends. Bookend contests against Notre Dame (beginning) and at Georgia (end) highlight a fairly intelligent slate. And smack dab in the middle of the collection are works such as Trip to Death Valley, The Blacksburg Experience, and How to Host a Hurricane and a Turtle. This should be one well-read Ramblin' Wreck team.

9) Penn State

Joe Paterno had his return to glory last season. However, the Nittany Lions will need to become road warriors this time around. The 2006 travel schedule is a big upgrade from '05. With stops in South Bend, Columbus, Minneapolis, West Lafayette, and Madison on the tour, the Lions better not wear their fancy shoes, 'cuz no red carpets will welcome this bunch.

8) LSU

The Bayou Bengals are taking advantage of their home turf this year, playing eight out of 12 contests in Baton Rouge. But the four road games are toughies. LSU will travel to Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Added to those challenges are home dates with Arizona, Fresno State, and Alabama. A nice mix of tough love from both feet and miles away.

7) Florida

Two things push Urban Meyer's squad above Les Miles'. The first is one less home game. The second is a beastly stretch. Over four straight game,s the Gators will host ‘Bama and LSU, head to Auburn, and finish up at the Cocktail Party with their longtime friends from Georgia. Plug in visits to Knoxville and Tallahassee, with a splash of the Old Ballcoach and his new-look Gamecocks.

6) Iowa State

Yes, this is my alma mater. I, like many Cyclone (and Big 12 North) fans, suffered through years of mediocrity. But the team has become somewhat respectable, while the division is slowly regaining their credibility. The '06 schedule includes a five-out-of-six run against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25.

Trips to Iowa City and Austin start off the block. Then, after a step down to I-AA, the pace picks up with tilts against Nebraska, Oklahoma (on the road), and Texas Tech. I know the competition isn't as fierce as other power conferences, but my school had to get recognized at some point in time.

5) Maryland

This schedule might put some fear back into the turtle. Slow and steady won't cut it when traveling to West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Boston College. Late-season home-turfers with Florida State and Miami might make the Terps retract inside their shells.

4) Oregon

Part one of our northwest tour takes us to Eugene, where the fans stand close and Mike Belotti loves a challenge. Two early contests at Fresno State and home to Oklahoma might pluck the Ducks from championship contention. If these don't, then there will be plenty of darts thrown their way in the Pac-10.

Consider games at the other top conference contenders (USC, Cal, Arizona State). Plus, you can throw UCLA in the mix when the Bruins head to Autzen Stadium. There isn't a long streak of opponents that will batter them, but the Ducks would have the toughest schedule west of the Mississippi if it weren't for...

3) Washington

... their long-time rival to the north. The Huskies enter year two under Tyrone Willingham with hopes of building on their re-building (did I just write that?). A similarity from last year lies in the fact the UW will take a lot of lumps in '06. After a home-opener with San Jose State, they do a Northwest swap, going to Oklahoma before hosting Fresno State.

The hits keep coming into conference play as home dates with UCLA and ASU only dull the pain from trips to Tucson, L.A. (for USC), Berkeley, and Eugene.

2) Minnesota

We head back to the bruising battery of the Big 10, which has its share of strong contenders for New Years' Day bowls and a national title. When looking at the Golden Gophers, they may not be up in that discussion ... a big reason why they've landed in this one. Sure, they have a built-in advantage of playing in the loud, turf-floored, and enclosed Metrodome. But even that can't help against their brutal slate.

In an eight-game stretch, Glen Mason and crew will host Michigan and Penn State. Maybe that'll give them some rest from visiting Cal, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. There is a bit of good news for Gopher fans. The team gets home-field in the battle for Floyd of Rosedale (vs. Iowa).

1) Northwestern

First of all, it's going to be hard to focus on football after the sudden death of Head Coach Randy Walker earlier this summer. Just playing shows the Wildcats' grit and resolve. But back to the season at hand.

There will be disagreement with this selection. Some think other conferences have the toughest teams, most grandiose venues, and loudest fan support (enter ACC, SEC, Pac-10 here). All well and good ... but have you done a Woody Paige and looked at the Wildcats' schedule?

Okay, maybe not the first three weeks, or their finale versus arch-rival Illinois. However, for seven contests in a row, no one beats this longtime tackling dummy. When averaging all the preseason hype, six of the seven ranked in the top 40 (with Michigan State nudged out at 41).

And to those doubters I have some advice. Have your team go to Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. Let them host the Boilermakers, Spartans, and Buckeyes. We'll see if they don't come out a little busted up and worn down.

Now the fun begins. Over the next four months, we get to see how the schedules play out. So enjoy yourselves. I know I will.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 5:52 PM | Comments (2)

August 24, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Last Year

After adding several defensive playmakers, the Kansas City Chiefs believed they had enough stopping power to support their high-octane offense and step into the playoffs. With an 8-4 record after their first 12 games, they were in position for the postseason, but a 2-2 finish kept them on the outside looking in. Herman Edwards inherits an aging unit with a very small window of opportunity and he better tell them it's now or never.

What We Learned From Last Year

For about two weeks, the revamped Chiefs defense looked remarkably improved. The squad that permitted opponents to a score an average of 27.2 points per game only allowed 24 in the first two weeks.

Then reality set in. The truth was that the Chiefs dominated two teams that would go on to win eight games combined and finish in the bottom 10 of points scored per game.

A few defensive parts may have been different, but the results were, for all intents and purposes, the same.

Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain were imported to enhance the secondary and Kendrell Bell and Derrick Johnson were acquired to strengthen the linebacking corps.

Surtain underachieved, Bell disappointed, Johnson played like a rookie, and Knight looked old.

That being said, the Chiefs did shave a few points-per-game off their allowed total, but otherwise remained virtually the same team they had been under Dick Vermeil: a great running team, a poor passing, and a poor defensive team.

The defensive struggles stemmed from the porous play of the defensive line, more specifically, the tackles. High draft picks Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii continued to disappoint, leaving a big vacancy in the middle of the line.

Some might contend that the Chiefs run defense actually improved last year, as it's ranking climbed to seventh overall, but that is far from the truth.

The defense still permitted a lofty 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, even though they faced the second least amount of rushing attempts. Opponents had so much success passing the ball against the Chiefs that they didn't have to run it down their throat to beat them down.

The passing defense gave up a whopping 241.4 yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. Their inability to generate any form of a consistent pass rush meant the opposing quarterbacks had all day to find the leaks in the secondary.

The defense only accumulated 29 sacks while the front four accounted for 22 of them. Defense end Jared Allen had 11 sacks and for the second consecutive season proved to be the Chiefs only consistent threat. Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham sent many blitzes, it's just not many of them showed up on the stat sheet.

On offense, the Chiefs' patented running game was healthy as ever, ironically more so after Priest Holmes was lost for the season to injury. Larry Johnson finally stepped out of the diapers and morphed into the offensive MVP.

The Chiefs' passing game was never anything to really worry about and it remained that way in 2005 since there were still no explosive wideouts to depend on.

Leading receiver Eddie Kennison was reliable, topping 1,000 yards for second consecutive season, but he only had nine catches on third down. Sophomore Samie Parker developed into a steady pair of hands, but did not perform to the level that you would expect from a No. 2 wide receiver.

There was a direct correlation between the success of the passing game and the health of left tackle Willie Roaf. He was hampered by a hamstring injury and when he was out of the lineup, Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez had to spend more time blocking, and less time receiving.

Overall, the Chiefs makeup had not changed significantly enough to expect a drastic improvement. Their defense took a baby step forward and as a team, they played well at Arrowhead Stadium, defending their home field almost perfectly (7-1), but the same disorders that ailed them in previous years — a mild pass rush and a soft defense — still lingered and hindered the Chiefs from really making an impact.

Offensive-minded head coach Dick Vermeil has retired and his replacement is the defensively-oriented Herman Edwards. With an offensive unit that is growing long in the tooth, the Chiefs are hoping Edwards can quickly cure the defense and instill that missing killer instinct.

This Year

The Chiefs have led the league in total offense over the past two seasons mostly in part to a potent rushing attack and one of the league's best offensive lines.

Their offensive foundation is structured around a solid front five, but started to show cracks last season. With the retirement of Willie Roaf, the fissures are becoming more noticeable.

Some believe that his retirement is a guise for a 13-year veteran who just doesn't want to endure the rigors of training camp, but he recently re-emphasized his decision to call it quits. Roaf notified the team of his desire to leave the game as early as February, but judging by their lack of desire to find a suitable backup, they maybe thought he was bluffing.

The loss of Roaf will be felt somewhat doubly, as tackle John Welbourn, who could have filled in, also retired. Toss in a foot injury to Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters and all of the sudden there are a lot of question marks about the five guys who are expected to protect 36-year-old quarterback Trent Green.

Veteran tackle Kyle Turley, who missed the last two seasons with a back injury and was originally brought in as a tight end experiment, now takes over for Roaf. Turley is adept as a tackle, but needs to put on some serious bulk shortly if he plans to last the whole season. At this point, he is a gamble at best, but he is the team's only immediate option. Jordan Black struggled as a fill-in last year.

The three interior spots are manned by stalwart veterans Will Shields, Casey Wiegmann, and Brian Waters, but none of them are getting any younger. Expect their play to suffer a little bit without Roaf but at least there is depth with Chris Bober, who is versatile enough to start at any interior spot.

As long as Waters' foot sprain doesn't linger too much, the concerns up front shouldn't limit the Chiefs' run production. Roaf missed six games last season and the Chiefs didn't see too much of a drop-off in his absence.

Herm Edwards plans on feeding Larry Johnson endless carries and although new offensive coordinator Mike Solari is going to stick to last year's script, Edwards wants to implement more ball control. Considering the Chiefs' defense has been garbage for so long, it makes you wonder why they didn't think of this idea sooner.

The run game will be fine but the passing game still has question marks. The lack of depth at wide receiver radiates with concern. There are some rumblings that Eddie Kennison is unhappy with his contract and might leave camp — a la what he did with the Denver Broncos mid-season a few years back. The Chiefs haven't really spent much time addressing his position in either the draft or free agency and although Kennison is not really a top-notch wideout, the Chiefs would be crippled by his departure.

The Chiefs offense will still be productive, but there are so many question that promote anxiety. Will Samie Parker develop? Can a fan rally bring back Willie Roaf? Is Priest Holmes going to play ever again? Is Kyle Turley strong enough to last a season? Has age slowed down Tony Gonzalez or caught up with Green?

With a few early season wins, most of these questions can be but to bed.

On defense, there seems to be much more certainty. The addition of Ty Law matches up a terrific tandem with Surtain. Lenny Walls and Benny Sapp are overmatched as starters but will become valuable contributors in their roles as nickelbacks.

With two premier corners, who can handle themselves on an island, Cunningham will finally be more comfortable sending blitzes.

The plan is to implement the ever-popular Cover 2 scheme, which should fit well since the three starting linebackers, Derrick Johnson, Kendrell Bell, and Kawika Mitchell, are all quick and capable in coverage.

The defensive line gets a huge boost with first-round pick Tamba Hali, who is a high-effort sack artist and is a can't-miss prospect. He will start with Allen and push Eric Hicks to a part-time role, which suits him better.

The tackle spots are still a concern, but the addition of Ron Edwards should help. Expecting bigger and better things from Ryan Sims is unlikely, but with Dalton and Edwards, the threesome should be serviceable.

The Chiefs took minor steps forward last season and all signs point to another greater step in the right direction this year, but much will depend — as all Cover 2 defenses do — on the safeties.

Two rookies have been impressive in camp and might start off the bat. Seventh-round pick Jarrad Page has pushed free safety Greg Wesley very had for his job. That alone should improve the performance of whoever is the eventual the starter. Second-round pick Bernard Pollard has a better chance to start. He has been a physical presence at the back end, something this soft defense hasn't seen in a while, and already has superior field range than veteran Sammy Knight. At this point in his career, Knight doesn't have much upside, but he is solid and won't make the rookie blunders that Pollard might be subject to.

By invoking the theme of ball control, the Chiefs are placing enormous expectations on their defense. This looks like the year that they will finally grow up but has the offense outgrown them, and are they too old to hold their end of the bargain?

With a difficult schedule ahead, it looks like the championship window of opportunity has closed.

Over/Under: 9.5

Ty Law is a big addition on defense ,while Willie Roaf is a huge subtraction on offense. Coach Edwards is working with an aging roster that still has a number of holes and although he might get nine or 10 wins out of this group, they won't be competing for the Super Bowl this year. They play: CIN, @DEN, SF, @ARZ, @PIT, SD, SEA, @STL, @MIA, OAK, DEN, @CLE, BAL, @SD, @OAK, and JAC.

Fantasy Sleeper

Samie Parker is the only real sleeper on this offense, more by default than anything else. The Chiefs are banking on his development and need him to expand into a reliable option. On a side note, you might get good value on Tony Gonzalez, who is coming off a two-touchdown season.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 8:24 PM | Comments (1)

Football Picks: Hating Notre Dame

It's getting to be that time. College football season was just around the corner. Now, it's basically here (just a week and a day away as I write this), and I'm positively giddy, like a kid counting down the days 'till summer vacation.

The last couple of years, I've been making picks in this column that I can assure you allowed no one to get rich in Las Vegas for following. My football picks published in this column are probably hovering right around .500, and maybe even a bit below. Keep that in mind if I bag on your team in the paragraphs to follow.

I think I'm gonna do better this year, though, because I have something that I haven't had before: a system. I'm pretty sure that a gambler with a system never loses. Probably.

Actually, it's not exactly a system, but a different way of selecting games this year, I'm picking the winner, and the margin, before looking at the line. Then will I compare my margins to the college football line, and those with the greatest disparity are my mortal locks (as in, if you take my advice, the locks placed on your foreclosed-upon house will be so strong no mortal will be able to bust them). Here are the five games where I differed the most with the opening Las Vegas line, with my pick on the left. Home teams in caps.

GEORGIA TECH (+8) over Notre Dame

I already touched on this a few columns back. Yes, I am a certified Notre Dame hater. But I really think I'd feel the same way about this game regardless.

The most common point used last year to undervalue Notre Dame was their loss to Michigan State, who went on to mediocrity after beating the golden domers. But that was early in the year, and things change. The best prognosticator for early-season games might be how the teams closed the prior year.

Notre Dame closed last year nicht sehr gut. Despite being +2 in turnovers, Ohio State rolled the Irish for over 600 yards of offense and won going away. The games before that, Notre Dame squeaked by Stanford (5-6 with an early loss to UC-Davis), and I can assure you the Irish were favorites by more than the touchdown they won by.

Here, they are giving even a little more than that. Georgia Tech is not a great program (they also ended the year badly, getting blown-out by Utah in their bowl game), but they are better than Stanford, at least. They are at home, where they have a great deal of recent history of coming up huge against very highly-ranked opponents. I still think Georgia Tech wins. I definitely think they will cover. If Calvin Johnson is in top form, a Notre Dame blowout is just not going to happen.

Texas-El Paso (PK) over SAN DIEGO STATE

Okay, so UTEP ended the year quite badly last year, dropping their last three after an 8-1 start. But they still managed those eight wins, and I put a contending C-USA team about even with a lower-division Mountain West team, even on the road. The difference is SDSU will be breaking in a new head coach, Chuck Long, and UTEP has a proven winner in Mike Price, who lifted UTEP out of the doldrums almost as soon as he was named coach a couple years ago. UTEP will win.

ALABAMA (-16) over Hawaii

So we're only giving Hawaii two touchdowns and a couple of two-point conversions on the road against Alabama? Really? Hawaii doesn't travel well. Up until last year, in fact, they really didn't travel east of the Rockies at all, when they went to East Lansing and got shellacked by Michigan State. Why should this be any different? Oh, I know ... their high-powered passing attack will keep them in the game. Oh, have I been seduced by that logic before. Just last year, in fact. I thought, no way does this offense not cover the 35 points they are being given!

Memphis (+3) over MISSISSIPPI

Memphis is coming off a bowl victory to cap the season with a three game win streak. They have to replace DeAngelo Williams at running back, but Memphis is resilient enough to do that; they made it to that bowl game after losing both their starting quarterback and backup. They will have revenge on their minds (Ole Miss won 10-6 last year) and the Tigers should take it by about a touchdown.

BAYLOR (+7.5) over Texas Christian

This is the biggest game for the Baylor football program in decades. Last year, they finally, finally, finally showed some signs of life. Usually happy to get a single conference win in the Big 12, last year they managed two on the way to five wins ... but more tellingly, it took overtime for Texas A&M and Oklahoma to put them away, and the Bears were the visitors in both those games.

This year, they get to start the season on national television on a day (Sunday, September 3rd) with little college football competition, against a team that, while very strong, is also beatable for a team in Baylor's position. Remember that TCU's only loss last year was against lowly SMU. For a potential statement game of such importance, it helps to have a solid veteran quarterback, and Baylor has one in Shawn Bell. I don't if Baylor will win, but I give them just as much chance as I do TCU. The 7.5-point spread is too much.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 8:05 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 23

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson tagged the wall on lap two, causing right-front damage, particularly a flat front tire. But in true No. 48 Lowe's team fashion, the crew made the necessary repairs and, after a caution a few laps later, Johnson was back on the lead lap. He eventually finished 13th, and while he lost 66 points to race winner Matt Kenseth, Johnson still holds a comfortable 58-point margin in the Cup standings.

"That's definitely not the start to the race we were looking for," says Johnson. "We could have packed it in and given up like Jeremy Mayfield, but we chose instead to push ourselves and make the most of a tough situation. Don't despair, Jeremy. I hear they're hiring drivers ... at Domino's."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth won for the third time this year, leading the final 31 laps to win at Michigan in the GFS Marketplace 400. Kenseth chopped 66 points off of Jimmie Johnson's points lead, and now trails by 58 with three laps remaining until the Chase field is set.

"I saw the No. 24 car of Jeff Gordon behind me," says Kenseth. "I knew I couldn't let him get close enough to wreck me, or as Jeff likes to call it, 'passing.'"

3. Kevin Harvick — A spin early in the race while running second negated any chance Harvick had to win his second-straight race, but good pit work and determined driving resulted in an 11th-place finish for the No. 29 Richard Childress team. Harvick maintains third in the points, 317 out of first.

"You know what really sucks?" asks Harvick.

Let me guess. Spinning.

"No, spinning and not having anyone to blame it on. Are you sure neither one of the Busch brothers were around?"

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon was unable to catch Matt Kenseth for the win in Michigan, but his second-place finish bumped his points cause from ninth to sixth, where he is 434 behind teammate Jimmie Johnson. Gordon insisted he wanted to catch Kenseth and pass him to prove to everyone that he could race and pass Kenseth cleanly."

"Like I mean that," says Gordon. "I would wreck Matt faster than a second-rate driver can find a new job with a decent team."

5. Tony Stewart — Stewart qualified 33rd on Friday, but quickly turned things around on Sunday and made his presence felt, finishing third for his tenth top-10 of the year and fourth-straight.

"What's this I hear about a 'relationship' between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker?" Stewart comments. "What's all the fuss about? No one makes a big deal about my relationship with Betty Crocker."

6. Jeff Burton — After winning his fourth pole of the year, Burton's day in Michigan soured quickly, as his engine failed on lap 17. He finished 42nd, and took a big hit in the points, dropping five places to number nine.

"Now I see why I was asked to sit in for Michael Waltrip on Nextel Cup Live on Speed Channel," says Burton. "You have to have a crappy finish before they'll ask you to be on the show. I finished 42nd, which is about where Michael finishes every week. It was an honor to fill in for Michael — however, I refused to wear the flip-flops."

7. Mark Martin — Martin was the second of three Roush cars in the top 10 at Michigan, finishing fifth for his fifth top-five of the year. He moves up two positions in the points to fourth, 395 out of first.

"Yes, indeed, a good day for Roush Racing," says Martin. "And a good day for Evernham Motorsports, as well. Elliott Sadler takes over for Jeremy Mayfield in the No. 19 and brings the car home in 10th. It must have had something to do with the driver."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt's 10th top-10 finish of the year was overshadowed by his win in Saturday's Carfax 250 Busch series race, in which he spun Carl Edwards and went on to victory. Earnhardt finished sixth in Sunday's Cup race and maintained 10th position in the points. He is 484 behind Jimmie Johnson and 49 ahead of Kasey Kahne in 11th.

"I couldn't believe the nerve of some fans booing me in Victory Lane after my Busch victory," says Earnhardt. "They were probably the same ones cheering when I took the lead on Sunday. Do those fans really think booing bothers me? I'm an Earnhardt. All my dad heard were boos. Heck, I even booed my father, and he wasn't even at the race track."

9. Denny Hamlin — The rookie posted his 11th top-10 finish of the year with a ninth in the GFS Marketplace 400. Hamlin held on to eighth in the points, where he sits 445 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"The only thing more certain than me making the Chase," says Hamlin, "is me winning Rookie of the Year honors. However, I didn't win the 'Raybestos Rookie of the Race' award, which, by the way, is made from recycled brake rotors. That went to Reed Sorenson, who finished one spot ahead of me in eighth. He just happens to be a hefty 13 spots below me in the points. He could make the Chase, as well, provided he starts the the final three races and no one else does."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch nailed the wall on lap 43, then hit it again two laps later. Then he ran over a possum on his way to pit road, and ran over a crewman's foot in his pit stall. Actually, he just hit the wall twice, but that was plenty of damage to ruin his day. He competed only 132 laps and finished 39th, and he fell two spots in the points to seventh, 443 off the lead.

"Did you hear that Matt Kenseth visited the Detroit Lions training camp?" says Busch. "I hear he throws a football like my brother Kurt throws a baseball ... badly. But that qualifies him for third string on the Lions' depth chart."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:51 PM | Comments (1)

August 23, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

Last Year

The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the quietest 12-4 teams in recent memory and garnered little respect because of their success against a soft schedule. They had a chance to disprove their critics in the playoffs, but embarrassed themselves against the former champs. Head coach Jack Del Rio has produced a competitive product in the last two seasons, but has not been able to establish the Jaguars as a premier team in the AFC. There is pressure to win in the playoffs this, but don't count on it.

What We Learned From Last Year

Playing in a small market without any flashy offensive parts really limits your exposure on NFL Primetime.

While the Jags did reach 12 wins for the first time in franchise history, they were rarely discussed as a serious threat in the AFC playoff picture.

The Jaguars accumulated the bulk of their wins against weaker opponents, while triumphing only three times against winning teams. While Jacksonville looked sharp in the first six weeks of the season, compiling a 4-2 record while defeating Cincinnati and Seattle at home and stealing a victory at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, they were virtually untested the rest of the way.

Aside from a second meeting with Indianapolis — which they lost — the combined record of the Jaguars' remaining 10 opponents was 39-105.

Even without starting quarterback Byron Leftwich, who broke a bone in his ankle on the first play of their Week 11 matchup in Arizona, the Jags didn't skip a beat without him. They finished up the regular season conquering five of their last six opponents by a margin of nearly 12 points per game.

There is no circumventing the fact that their schedule was as soft as a freshly-baked Krispy Kreme, there is something to be said for handling business. Beating awful teams is part of becoming a winner yourself.

With a young core of talent, many of the players on this roster have developed together. This was visible particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud have spent four seasons building their chemistry together.

This tandem is easily the best tackle duo in the NFL and is the foundation of the Jaguars' defense. They tie up so much attention, which not only frees up linebacker Mike Peterson to roam from sideline-to-sideline, it makes it easier for other teammates to get to the quarterback.

End Reggie Hayward, who was signed from Denver to bring pressure off the end, faced single-teams most of the year and contributed 8.5 sacks. Paul Spicer, Rob Meier, and Bobby McCray added another 21, leading the defense to the third-highest sack total in the NFL.

The second level defense was very good in support. Peterson should have been a Pro Bowl selection, while Daryl Smith matured from a solid prospect into a quality starter. The Jags were not too pleased with the production of Akin Ayodele and even traded for Jamie Winborn mid-season, but still felt that the remaining outside spot was a weakness.

The play of the secondary was stellar as Rashean Mathis — outside of getting undressed on a stop-and-go route by Marvin Harrison in Week 14 — blossomed into a shutdown cornerback. The opposite corner was filled Terry Cousin and Kenny Wright, who filled a gap for a year.

Losing strong safety Donovin Darius for the season in Week 2 was a tough blow. Once again, the weak schedule kind of lessened hurt.

The story on offense revolved around the development of former first-round wideouts Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. The latter, was always quick to celebrate after a decent play but would disappear immediately after. Williams was inconsistent, while Jones endured a change from quarterback to wide receiver in the pros, which allowed sophomore Ernest Wilford to leapfrog into the starting lineup. He was reliable, finishing second on the team in receptions.

For the sixth time in eight seasons, running back Fred Taylor played in less than 16 games. Greg Jones was the lead fill-in, but still did not show the burst he once did at Florida State, prior to tearing his ACL.

The front five maintained the theme of inconsistency on the offense, as left guard Vincent Manuwai had an off year. With rookie Khalif Barnes starting 12 games at left tackle, although he played fairly well, the left side of the line was erratic at times.

The Jags are one of the youngest contenders in the AFC without many holes on their roster, but they need to do some growing before they can make a dent in the playoff picture.

This Year

Under Del Rio, the Jags have advanced their win total in each of his three seasons. They won't get to more than 12 wins this season, but a playoff win would be a more telling sign of success.

The defense returns virtually all of their starters with upgrades at the two positions that nagged them last year: outside linebacker and right cornerback.

Brian Williams was given $10 million reasons — up front — to move to Jacksonville, but it's unclear if he is good enough to start. He lost his job in Minnesota last season and he hasn't exactly overwhelmed as a Viking. He is very physical, though, and should fit in on the Jags' smash-mouth defense. He is a clear-cut upgrade at the position and allows Terry Cousin to move to nickel downs, which he is more than capable of handling in his 10th season.

The second upgrade, at the linebacking position, is expected eventually be third-round draft pick Clint Ingram. He was the captain on Oklahoma's defense last year and is competing with Nick Greisen and Pat Thomas for the job.

Donovin Darius' physical presence was missed last year, but he has recovered from his ACL tear and will start from the get-go. Combined with Deon Grant, this is a premier safety tandem that does not get talked about very often.

The return of Darius plus the additions of Ingram and Williams stands to make this defense better and tougher. Knowing what the front four brings to the table, this will be one physical puppy.

But stopping or slowing opponents hasn't often been a concern for the Jaguars. Rather, it has been the offense's ability to keep up that has hindered this team from success.

The retirement of Jimmy Smith is a difficult loss to deal with because he was the knight in shining armor that was always there in the passing game. What makes his departure sorer is that there is no ready replacement.

Smith was crucial to the Jaguars on third-down situations last season and there is no wide receiver on the roster who can bring the complete, clutch package that he offered.

Reggie Williams is lost and will likely never be a viable starter for the Jaguars, while Matt Jones' languid attitude leaves much to be desired. Ernest Wilford becomes the most reliable target by default, but he doesn't have breakaway speed. As a matter of fact, this starting threesome is one of the slowest overall, which doesn't bode well since the current NFL trend is blistering burners at the position.

The Jaguars need first-round pick tight end Marcedes Lewis to immediately inherit the role as Byron Leftwich's favorite target. This should be a given, since Lewis is a smooth athlete who shredded many college defenses in his day. Although he, too, lacks a top gear, he is the most dynamic tight end this franchise has seen and will command attention in the center of the field.

The coaching staff has added Mike Tice to the mold and although he struggled as the lead coach for the Vikings, one thing that rarely faltered during his tenure (except for his last season) was the offensive line.

The Jags are hoping he secures their front five, who played below their talent last season. The other reason for the hiring of Tice was because Del Rio wasn't a big fan of the pass-happy schemes they ran last year.

Tice is expected to focus on ball-control, which makes a lot of sense considering the stout defense and the lack of receiving threats.

At one point in time, the Jaguars' success was directly linked to the health of running back Fred Taylor, but the position is as deep as it has ever been and the team doesn't need him to thrive.

He hasn't produced a 100-yard rushing game prior to the fifth game in the season in any of the last three seasons and although he claims to be in the best shape of his career, the team wasn't please that he decided to workout on his own in the offseason. With Greg Jones looking as healthy as he did prior to his ACL injury and second-round pick Maurice Drew on-board, the Jags are no longer reliant on Taylor and it is not inconceivable for him to playing elsewhere this season.

The Jaguars have a very high ceiling this year, but their success will be tied to the passing game. If they can succeed in the air without Jimmy Smith and Matt Jones and/or Marcedes Lewis are constant threats, the Jags are a Super Bowl contender. If not, they won't be returning to the playoffs.

Over/Under: 9.5

While the Texans and Titans have improved in the offseason, the Colts have taken a step backwards. There is an opening for the Jags to take this division, especially since they seem to play well against the Colts, but they will need to find stability with their passing game. They play: DAL, PIT, @IND, @WAS, NYJ, @HOU, @PHI, TEN, HOU, NYG, @BUF, @MIA, IND, @TEN, NE, and @KC.

Fantasy Sleeper

Greg Jones is as healthy as he has been since tearing his ACL in college and Del Rio is talking about him as possibly becoming the starter. Even if Fred Taylor is still around, Jones figures to get most of the red zone carries. The goal is to be more ball-control oriented, and if that's the case, Jones has a lot of upside in this offense.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 10:16 PM | Comments (1)

August 22, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Indianapolis Colts

Last Year

A Tony Dungy team consistently failing in the playoffs — where have I seen that before? The Indianapolis Colts started the season with a 13-0 blaze before stumbling twice before the playoffs. In the postseason, the unconquerable New England Patriots were finally out of the way, but Indy once again choked, this time at home against champs-to-be Pittsburgh. The playoff monkey just keeps getting bigger and bigger for Dungy and Peyton Manning's Colts and don't expect them to shed him this year.

What We Learned From Last Year

After a record-setting offensive display by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2004 regular season, many expected the mauling to continue in 2005.

The offense started slowly, though, scoring only three offensive touchdowns after three weeks.

It was the defense that carried the Colts, permitting no more than 10 points in a game until Week 6.

The emergence of linebackers Gary Brackett, Cato June, and David Thornton solidified the center of the stout defense. June and Thornton provided many big plays and a lot of speed, which is crucial to a Dungy defense. June, a former safety, led the team with five interceptions — two returned for touchdowns — and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.

The front four had been productive since the arrival of Dwight Freeney and continued to wreak havoc on passers with 46 sacks. With Freeney receiving the bulk of the attention, Raheem Brock, Montae Reagor, Robert Mathis, and Larry Tripplett all tied or set new personal highs for sacks. One disappointment was the pickup of defensive tackle Corey Simon, who didn't quite fit in during his first season with the Colts.

The Colts' defense had noticeably improved its general quickness over the offseason and was flocking to the ball from sideline to sideline. Second-year free safety Bob Sanders, who was selected to his first Pro Bowl, was the best player in the secondary and often near the football at the end of the play. Mike Doss had a career-year, but his performance versus the run is much better than his pass coverage.

First-rounder Marlin Jackson struggled at cornerback in his rookie season, while Nick Harper and Jason David were just adequate starters. The Colts' philosophy was to generate a ton of pressure to protect their cornerbacks, and for the most part, their plan worked until the playoffs.

The passing defense climbed an impressive 13 spots in the rankings, but the Steelers' coaching staff scouted the weakness and exposed it. They attacked the pass defense relentlessly in the first quarter of their playoff game and jumped out to a 14-0 lead.

The Colts' offense was indescribably poor in their divisional playoff game against the Steelers and once again failed in crunch time.

Never mind the fact that they turned it around late — mostly because Troy Polamalu's interception was reversed — Peyton Manning once again fizzled against a 3-4 defense.

More importantly, a 3-4 defense that he helped crush 26-7 just weeks earlier.

Both Manning and his offensive line get rustled against a 3-4 scheme. Typically with a 4-3 defense, there is less pre-snap movement and it is easier to figure out where the defensive players will be. For Manning, he knows who will get single coverage. For the front five, they know where the pressure is going to come from.

Against a 3-4, pressure comes from every angle and can be very deceptive. Linemen sometimes drop into coverage, which further clouds the passing lanes.

But even so, these types of kinks should have been worked out in practice, especially since the Colts failed in two consecutive championship games to a 3-4 defense run by the New England Patriots.

With the Pats out of the way last season, seemingly Indy's biggest hurdle, and home-field advantage against a team they had already spanked in the regular season, the perception was that this was the Colts best chance to finally emerge out of the AFC.

It is not easy to label the Colts a group of choke artists, but that is exactly the case. For three consecutive seasons, the team that has defeated them has gone on to win the Super Bowl and each time, the Colts have lacked a killer instinct and the ability to execute in each eliminating game.

Blame Mike Vanderjagt, blame the 3-4, blame the offensive line, or blame Tony Dungy. Regardless of the scapegoat, the bottom line is the Colts are not mentally tough enough to win a Super Bowl.

This Year

Running back Edgerrin James had been exactly what the Colts were looking for when they surprisingly selected him fourth-overall in the 2000 NFL Draft, one spot ahead Ricky Williams.

Now they are hoping rookie Joseph Addai can fill his shoes.

The advocates of Addai have raved about his well-rounded game — his blocking ability and his pass-catching ability — and considering the success nobodies like Dominic Rhodes, James Mungro, and even the "other" Ricky Williams have in this offense, he should be comfortable from the get-go.

One thing the Colts were displeased about last season was their short-yardage situations, but it is unlikely Addai or any other back on the roster will cure that ailing.

Not much needs to be said about Manning, or wideouts Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. We all know what they bring to the table.

Expect a breakout season out of tight end Dallas Clark, who has slowly improved in each of his three seasons in Indianapolis.

The offensive line returns the same solid starters with the one possible change being at right guard, where Ryan Lilja, who slumped down the stretch last season, might be pushed by former Texas Tech standout Dylan Gandy. This unit is very good, but with the growing popularity of the 3-4 defense, they better figure out how to slow down blitzing linebackers.

On defense, much has been made about a couple of key departures in Larry Tripplett and David Thornton.

The Colts have quietly become a linebacker factory, being one of the best teams in the league to draft and develop them.

From Mike Peterson, to Marcus Washington, to David Thornton, the Colts will find a replacement, but it would be nice to hold on to some of these Pro Bowlers.

Gilbert Gardner will to step into the lineup, but Gary Brackett is the backer who will have a more heralded breakout year. He led the team in tackles last year and added three interceptions and a sack, but he didn't get the same attention as June and Thornton.

The defensive line won't miss Tripplett that much. He underachieved for three seasons before finally compiling a good season to cash in on a contract year.

Corey Simon has trimmed down significantly and is expected to fit into to the void left by Tripplett. There is also some optimism surrounding Vincent "Sweet Pea" Burns and if he can contribute, the Colts should have a solid rotation at defensive tackle.

For a second consecutive season, the Colts have spent a first-day draft selection on a cornerback, this time a second-round pick on Tim Jennings. There had been some talk of moving Marlin Jackson to safety, but he has opened training camp battling for a starting cornerback spot.

The team used Mike Vanderjagt as a scapegoat for last year's failures, but replacement Adam Vinatieri has been much less accurate over his career. Aside from their annual swap of blossoming veterans for up and coming prospects, the Colts return virtually the same unit.

The defense, as a whole, is well-coached and is more than suitable to support what is supposed to be the best offense in the league.

If you haven't noticed, this team is a mirror image of the late-'90's Buccaneers teams that Dungy coached. To contrast, their defense was as dominant as the Colts' offense is, and just like the Colts' defense is better than good enough to get by, the Bucs' offense was supportive enough.

But in two consecutive playoff losses, Dungy's defense was a huge letdown — allowing a total of 52 points in those games — just like Dungy's offense has been the reason for the Colts' failure in the playoffs. The Colts' defense has actually exceeded expectations on several occasions, particularly in the playoffs.

Dungy has taken this team a long way, but just like his former Buccaneers, they don't have the cold blood that Jon Gruden injected the following season.

Sure, they have a chip on their shoulder and they will probably impress in the regular season once again, but history shows that Dungy's teams are not to be trusted in the postseason.

Over/Under: 11.5

Since no one in the division has the firepower to match the Colts' passing game, they shouldn't have a difficult time winning at least five divisional games. They have only lost twice to AFC South opponents in the last three years (twice to Jacksonville). With the NFC East and AFC East on tap, the Colts schedule is middle of the pack and they should finish right around 11 or 12 wins this season. They play: @NYH, HOU, JAC, @NYJ, TEN, WAS, @DEN, @NE, BUF, @DAL, PHI, @TEN, JAC, CIN, @HOU, and MIA.

Fantasy Sleeper

The sleeper on this offense has to be Joseph Addai. Considering what previous running backs have done in this offense and considering the investment the Colts have made into him, he has to be the main carrier. He is well-rounded and is more capable than Dominic Rhodes, so expect to see Addai approach 1,000 yards this season.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 7:50 PM | Comments (0)

Beware: Jets Have No Fantasy Value

Start filing away a mental note on one thing to remember about this 2006 Jets franchise. We can envision a future trivia question. What NFL team has started the most amount of different quarterbacks? That future trivia question will soon be the 2006 New York Jets. The Jets may have zero fantasy football value this season, in fact.

Herman Edwards was quick to dart away from the Kansas City Chiefs without any complaints. He knew the road the Jets were traveling and where the Chiefs are, as well. That's two different directions, and the Jets are the ones pacing backwards. Every year, something is going wrong with their offense. Just a couple of years ago, their team seemed bright and destined to take on the New England Patriots. Now they're soon to be a team in a serious transformation phase with questions all over the place.

It all started with Chad Pennington's injuries. Two years in a row, he has went down with a shoulder injury and some think he may never recover. He already had a weak arm before the injuries, and seeing how his arm can hold up all season will be a hard test. They'll have to lessen the load on his arm, which may be hard considering the Jets may not have Curtis Martin.

Martin's knees are so bad right now that he hasn't been able to respond to the offseason workout treatments. You hate to see a guy leave the game like this, but that appears to be where Martin is headed. Unfortunately for the Jets, they decided to unleash Lamont Jordan last year after keeping him around for a great length of time. He sure would be great to have now.

To find some insurance in case Martin can't play, the Jets went after Lee Suggs. Sugg is a capable back that the Jets felt comfortable trading for, only to see him fail his physical and leave the Jets still searching for a back. There are many names out there that the Jets may go after, including T.J. Duckett or even a Travis Henry. Whoever it is, they may want to come up with an ailment upon physical as the Jets are going to be horrific. The one bright side for any running back joining the team would be the Jets' first-round pick, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who'll have plenty of runs on his side of the line.

From a fantasy standpoint, the Jets actually have no one worth looking at for the first six rounds of a fantasy draft. In fact, you could stretch it out even further for people still worried about Laveranues Coles and his turf toe problems. As wild as it may sound, the Jets may have zero fantasy value for the upcoming season.

At quarterback, the answer could be Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey, or Kellen Clemons. None of which should be taken in a fantasy football draft, and may not be considered even as a waiver wire pickup when a starter is named. At running back, Curtis Martin is still being taken in drafts based on his past 11 years, but people need to move on. The likelihood of Martin stepping on the field this season is looking doubtful, and if he does, he will likely have zero fantasy impact.

That leaves the wide receivers. A group that would be better off with Santana Moss, but, oh wait, they traded him for Coles. A very smart move by the Jets front office. Really, though, Coles should bounce back somewhat as he has played his best with Chad Pennington as his quarterback.

Behind Coles was supposed to be Justin McCareins, but he has reportedly fallen off as a starting receiver, possibly to the point of being traded, as the Jets are extremely disappointed with him. That would move up Jerricho Cotchery or Tim Dwight as the starting opposite receiver of Coles. Don't we all smell an offense that has 2006 Pro Bowlers names all over it?

There is truly no hope for this franchise. It may be a good thing that the New York fans can continue to have a big appearance at the NFL draft every year in New York City since they will be having top-five picks for years to come.

Zack Cimini is a guest columnist and is the founder and editor-in-chief of NotJustaAame.com, a fantasy sports site dedicated to helping fantasy sports players succeed.

Posted by Zack Cimini at 7:36 PM | Comments (0)

August 21, 2006

NFL Preseason Pleases No One

Players hate it, but they hate everything about August. Coaches hate it — they're damned by the media if they play their starters and damned by fans if they don't. Major League Baseball hates it, since their summer monopoly is at an end.

It is the NFL's preseason, that time of year when wide receivers wear jerseys numbered into the 90s and that boorish season ticket-holding neighbor wants to befriend you in the hope of divesting himself of those two unwanted stubs in the front of this year's pack.

Last weekend ushered in the 2007 edition with a full schedule of exhibitions amid a growing voice of opposition. In the Hall of Fame game, a sobering neck injury to Eagles running back Bruce Perry had dropped players to their knees in prayer before the first week even got underway. And with the injury list claiming at least one marquee player, opponents have pushed the envelope to more boisterous levels than ever before as they play before a newly-elected commissioner in their audience.

NBC wasted no time. Five days after Roger Goodell's election, the network found an opportunity during its debut broadcast Sunday night to weigh in on the game with which it has yet to become reacquainted. Four NBC mouthpieces conducted a poll among themselves as to what changes they would institute if elected Commissioner.

Against the backdrop of Pro Bowl running back Clinton Portis in street clothes after partially dislocating his left shoulder earlier in the evening, Al Michaels espoused the network's — errrr, his — disdain for the four-game preseason, opting instead for two additional regular season games.

NBC may get high grades for ingenuity and a "nice try" from its peers at CBS, FOX, and ESPN, but not much more. After all, Commissioner-Elect Goodell now answers to all 32 people in this country who love preseason football. For those who own an NFL franchise, the economics are infallible: 10 gates for the payroll of eight.

Besides, owners will point out, they have steadily conceded on this issue through the decades. Four games have been added to the regular season schedule since 1960, while two exhibitions have been cut. Goodell should find the chore of asking Portis to play 20 games for 16 paychecks a bit less demanding than that of his predecessor, Pete Rozelle. In his first year as Commissioner, Rozelle extracted 18 games from the likes of Ray Nitschke, while paying him for only 12.

For his part, Portis managed to find the prize in the Cracker Jack with his realization that he will not have to play another exhibition this season. As he commented upon leaving Redskins Park Sunday night, "I don't know why myself or any other player of my caliber should be playing in the preseason."

Portis will be joined on the sidelines by teammates Chris Clemons and Kerry Carter, who were also lost in Sunday's contest. NFL.com reports that Clemons, a reserve linebacker, sprained a ligament in his left knee and will miss four to six weeks. Carter, a reserve running back who was looking at extended play time in the wake of Portis' injury, managed but one quarter in that role before tearing two ligaments in his right knee. He is lost for the season.

As is Chad Greenway, the Vikings' first-round draft pick, who sustained an undisclosed knee injury during a kickoff in the Monday night finale to Week 1. San Diego kick returner Darren Sproles figures to miss several weeks after breaking a fibula in the Chargers' first exhibition win. Nor is there any word yet on the return of Bears' safety Mike Brown after his first-game Achilles' tendon injury last Friday.

With only one practice week in the books, critics wonder what the remaining exhibition schedule may have in store. Memories strike fear as they await the sequel to 2005's Rex Grossman, 2004's Jon Jansen, or 2003's Michael Vick. For them, the September 7 regular season kickoff cannot come fast enough. Somehow, a Vinny Testaverde-like season-ending injury is more palatable on Opening Day than in the preseason.

Defenders will argue that the exhibition slate provides a needed period of assessment as big-league rosters are filled out; that injuries occurring in games that count are no less devastating than in games that do not; that the preseason absorbs IR time resulting from offseason surgeries and early season injuries that would otherwise displace regular season games. The latter is certainly the case with Portis, who may miss no regular season action at all.

Nonetheless, at 25% the length of its regular schedule, the NFL preseason is the relative longest of the four major sports. Major League Baseball, at about 20%, is a distant second, even with Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules riddled with split-squad games and 25-man rosters riddled with stars quick to pass up a long bus ride.

So, what should our new Commish do about the preseason once he assumes office?

Al Michaels' Regular Season in August would do wonders in NBC's battle with Desperate Housewives, but the rest of the country is still vacuuming their swimming pools and changing air conditioner filters. Perhaps the NFL could adopt a dual approach similar to MLB, whereby Portis and those of his "caliber" could play in one state where bus rides are optional, while the rank-and-file could fight among themselves for the practice squad openings in another.

Better yet, maybe what Roger Goodell really needs is for Ray Nitschke to come around one more time and tell everyone to just suck it up.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 8:10 PM | Comments (0)

At Least it Wasn't a Massacre

This much at least differed between this weekend's Boston Massacre and the one which helped to send the Red Sox toward eventual sinking 28 years before: come Sunday, there was no doghouse-sitting manager burying his best pitcher against the Yankees and deciding a barely-tested kid with one loss for major league experience, but "ice water in his veins" was a better pick to stop the carnage than Luis Tiant.

This time, the Gerbil wasn't running the show from the dugout. But the first World Series-winning Red Sox manager since Rough Bill Carrigan was. This time, it wasn't Bobby Sprowl thrown up in place of El Tiante to take the beating of his young and short major league life. But it was Curt Schilling thrown up in place of nobody, nohow, fresh from telling anyone who'd listen that the Red Sox had nothing on their mind but winning a division title — after they won Sunday, of course.

If they won Sunday.

Schilling did his job. Seven innings' mostly magnificent work, Jason Giambi's fourth-inning three-run bomb the only interference.

David Ortiz (what a surprise) delivered the one that should have mattered off Yankee reliever Randy Villone, after starter Mike Mussina had to leave the game with a tightening groin before he could throw even one bottom-of-the-fifth pitch. Villone threw a pitch that Ortiz deposited in the right field seats to bust a three-all tie.

Two innings later, Kevin Youkilis drove home a preliminary insurance policy with a base hit up the pipe, and all the Red Sox bullpen had to do was get the final six outs unmolested, if they could.

Actually, it was all Jonathan Papelbon had to do if he could. Provided he didn't mind coming in with the bases loaded and nobody out and brushing off a sacrifice fly (Giambi) to pound a pair of strikeouts before getting himself through the ninth. A leadoff double and a wild pitch is one thing, but two more strikeouts deserves better than Derek Jeter dumping a quail into right to tie it at five.

It sure as hell deserved better than the Red Sox stranding the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth after Big Papi treated them to a leadoff double off The Mariano himself. Better than Giambi lining one into the bullpen just beyond the gamely charging Coco Crisp, playing deep enough to have even a cursory chance of getting over from center field to try for it, getting a piece of his glove on it before slamming the low fence and dinging his wrist. Better than Robinson Cano driving a one-out double into the left field corner and Jorge Posada wrapping a two-run bomb just around the Pesky Pole and the Red Sox able to do nothing with a two-out single in the bottom of the 10th.

At least the 8-5 Yankee win wasn't a massacre within the massacre.

If you wanted to see it this way, this time the Red Sox came into Sunday's meeting with considerably less of a massacre scoring deficit. The Yankees outscored them 39-20 in winning the first three of the weekend set before Schilling hit the mound. They'd battered the Red Sox for 35-5 in the games prior to Don Zimmer sending Ice Water Sprowl to the Sunday mound and a sheaf of saved articles including Lee's barbs under Carl Yastrzemski's pleading eyes. (Yastrzemski begged Zimmer to bury the hatchet and send Lee to the Sunday hill, and Zimmer remained bent on burying the hatchet into Lee's skull alone.)

What the Red Sox lacked in 1978, however, was a signature former teammate wreaking a preponderance of the pre-Sunday havoc. And if the Red Sox go to the finish line short of a division title and packing for the winter (at this writing, it looks as though the wildcard winner is likelier to belong to the American League Central), the Nation may look back on this weekend and shudder while looking back on last winter wanting to burn a team president in effigy. Or a third baseman.

This is what lowballing Johnny Damon after squeezing Theo Epstein out for what proved a short vacation got the Red Sox: the former spiritual leader of the former Idiots entered Sunday with a series resume showing a .750 batting average (9-for-12) with three doubles, two bombs, and 8 RBI, not to mention one smooth sliding outfield catch that turned Alex Gonzalez's likely RBI hit into a mere sacrifice fly for a second out in the bottom of the sixth.

The next half-inning, Mike Lowell misplayed Derek Jeter's one-out low-liner to third, with the Red Sox behind a mere run — and the Yankees were off and romping from the end of Lowell's 70-game errorless streak. The Empire Emeritus ended up sweeping a day-night doubleheader 12-4 and 14-11 before burying Josh Beckett and the Olde Towne Team 13-5 in a Saturday matinee. Had it not been a mere season-and-a-half since The Curse had been clipped, Red Sox Nation Sunday night would have seen the ghosts of Ice Water and the Gerbil dancing atop the Monster's edge.

Even before Sunday was born, Theo Epstein slipped forth to try keeping any panic from more than fleeting thoughts. "Things haven't changed because we lost three games, things haven't changed because we're thinner pitching-wise than we want to be," Epstein told reporters after the Saturday smothering. "We're still on the road to get where we want to be. You don't start questioning everything about your processes because of a moment like this."

But you might start questioning how the Boston bullpen got overworked enough to be little enough relief for faltering starters that Papelbon wasn't even seen in warmup mode the first three games ... but Mike Myers, who'd performed splendidly enough as a Red Sox situational southpaw for seasons enough, was allowed to escape to New York and turn up out of the Yankee 'pen to get two explosive outs (named Ortiz and Manny Ramirez) and the win in the second Friday game.

By the time Schilling took his customary moment of silence at the back of the mound, before opening for business against Damon himself, the Yankees had completed an eight-games-in-the-standings turnaround since July 1st, when the Red Sox sat four and a half up in first, the Red Sox sat having lost 10 of 14 and four and a half back. By the time, he'd clipped the Yankees in the top of the first (an arduously-earned groundout lure to Damon, a just-as-arduous called punchout on Jeter, and an equally-laborious swish upon Bobby Abreu, whose bat has revived well enough since his trade from Philadelphia), Schilling looked like he'd been there, done that, and couldn't wait to do it again.

The good news was that his mates made him want it even more after they got finished in the bottom of the first. After Crisp (an offseason trade arrival, whose maiden Boston season has been obstructed by injuries) fouled out to open, Mark Loretta and David Ortiz swatted back-to-back singles off Mike Mussina, with Loretta helping himself to third after Damon bobbled Ortiz's knock, before Ramirez banged Loretta home with a double off the center field wall and Youkilis swatted one up the pipe to send Big Papi home.

And after Schilling followed up that 2-0 first-inning gift with a three-and-three top of the second, the not-so-friendly Fenway skies opened up with almost an hour's rain delay. The Red Sox went scoreless in the bottom of the second when the skies closed up enough to let them have back at it. Schilling and Mussina swapped shutout halves in the third, but the Yankees got frisky in the top of the fourth, with Jeter and Abreu singling back to back and bringing up Giambi with nobody out and pinstripes on the corners.

Schilling vs. Giambi began with two strikes. It continued with 2-2. And it ended over the right field fence and with the Red Sox down by a run yet again. Ever the warrior, Schilling shook off Alex Rodriguez's followup single by getting Cano to dial Area Code 4-6-3. And he shook off a rare followup walk to Posada by getting Melky Cabrera to ground one to shortstop to keep the Yankee lead to a single run.

That lead lived long enough for Ramirez to open the bottom of the fourth with a single up the pipe before Youkilis forced him at second, but Lowell singled Youkilis to third and, after Wily Mo Pena flied to right, Doug Mirabelli — all .197 hitting worth of him — singled to right to send home Youkilis, before Mussina got Alex Cora to ground out to second to keep it tied at three.

But while Schilling eased on through the Yankee fifth (Nick Green: swish; Damon: grounder to second; Jeter: fly to the back of the outfield), Mussina's night ended with groin tightness before he could throw a single pitch in the Red Sox fifth. (He'd had a similar problem at the beginning of the month.) After Ortiz took advantage of Villone, Ramirez reached on a followup walk and Youkilis flied out for the side, but the Red Sox had their second lead of the night and only their third during the series.

With one out in the Yankee sixth, Schilling dodged a bullet of his own misfiring, throwing wild enough to let Abreu (a leadoff single) take third on a busted pickoff attempt. But A-Rod popped out to his counterpart Lowell and Cano lined out to Cora at short and that's how short was the threat. The Red Sox pressed Villone in their half (leadoff and two-out singles), but he got Crisp to ground out to first for the side; Schilling withstood two fly outs in the top of the seventh (Jorge Posada, to left; Cabrera, to center) to drop strike three in on Nick Green.

Now came the opportunity of the night for the Olde Towne Team: they had Loretta, Ortiz, and Ramirez on the bottom of the seventh schedule. All they had to do was get through Myers. Loretta did his part, working Myers for a full-count walk, but Myers did his real job: he drew Ortiz into a ground out to first. Then he walked Ramirez on the house before handing off to Scott Proctor for the Greek God of Walks — who proved a Greek God of Base Hits, too, singling up the pipe to send Loretta home. Cano's mishandled Lowell's grounder to load up the pads for Pena, but Proctor swished him swiftly enough and got Mirabelli to fly out to Damon in center to keep the Yankee deficit at two.

Schilling finally yielded to Mike Timlin, whom the Yankees abused for four of their seven seventh-inning runs in the Friday nightcap. And the Yankees opened their half of the eighth by threatening similar abuse, after Damon opened with a single and Jeter took first on the house after getting plunked. With Abreu licking his chops in the batter's box, out came Timlin in a huge hurry and in came Javier Lopez, a left-handed reliever freshly recalled from Pawtucket. He got ahead of Abreu 1-2 before Abreu fought him back for a bases-loading walk with Giambi coming up.

Enter Papelbon with nobody out and a six-out save assignment if he could get it. He'd had a dicey couple of scrapes against Tampa Bay and Kansas City, of all people, before righting himself against Baltimore and Detroit, and the Red Sox gods only knew he'd been well-rested over the first three games of the Yankee set. It seemed an Eighth Amendment violation, but if ever came a moment to test the kid's fortitude this was it. Especially when he wrestled Giambi to a full count.

He sort of wiggled out of it with Giambi, the big first baseman lofting one deep to right that Gabe Kapler spelling Pena hauled down for the first out and a sacrifice fly, leaving men on the corners for Rodriguez, the Red Sox lead cut to one, but a double play opportunity still alive. He fell behind 2-0 to A-Rod, then fought him back to 2-2 before he pried out the walk. Well, nobody said this was going to be child's play. He started Cano 0-1 and swished him. Then he swished Posada.

Did it look for the moment as though the Red Sox had it in the bank and cleared?

If it did, you don't know the Red Sox. Or, the Yankees. And, the alchemy therein.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 7:44 PM | Comments (0)

CBS Golf Coverage: A Follow-Up

If you're looking for some thoughts on Tiger's 12th major championship triumph, second major of 2006, and third straight win — stop reading. Every other golf columnist will be perfectly glad to discuss the subject in their writing. Rather, I'd like to write a follow-up column to some writing I did earlier in the year on CBS Sports' coverage of the PGA Tour.

In that column, I pretty much threw CBS under the bus for how they coverage golf. If I remember correctly, I said their coverage was boring, filled with statistical mistakes, and lacked innovation to make watching golf interesting for the normal consumer. I thought it might be worth it to review the coverage of the PGA Championship to see if some changes had been made and whether the telecasts were more interesting, the same, or worse.

There were a number of things that I enjoyed about this weekend's coverage. I liked the ultra-slow motion cameras that demonstrated how certain shots were executed or looked — such as bunker explosion shots, the bump and run, etc. While no average golfer has access to that kind of technology to make sure their short game mirrors the perfectly-executed shots demonstrated on the telecast, the cameras did offer a curious insight into how a golf shot really looks.

CBS was also not one to deny the significant changes made to Medinah No. 3 by Rees Jones. In demonstrating the layout of various holes on the course, the ole golf team pulled up the 1999 fly-bys to demonstrate the key changes made. It was critical for the average golf fan to see that Jones did more to the golf course than simply lengthen it into the record books.

Though Tiger dominated the tournament on the weekend, putting on a clinic for the ages, CBS did a pretty good job of giving the viewers access to the other competitors on the course. We actually got to see the battle for second place taking shape, and it was interesting to me. Of course, only a true golf nerd applauds for coverage of the battle to be first loser, but I think this validates the telecast and tournament in showing that there are other players out there vying for some serious money and recognition.

For as much as there has been some demonstrable improvement in CBS' golf coverage, there are still many issues that remain.

Lanny Wadkins just doesn't do it for me. He's a very skilled golfer and a seemingly nice guy, but he is absolutely the John Madden of golf coverage. His analysis is trite, shallow, and generally meaningless. It makes you long for Ken Venturi and his harsh commentary. While Ken was not always on the mark, hell, I usually disagreed with him, he did make poignant remarks that were interesting. Wadkins needs to bring more opinion, stronger analysis, and the sense that he is an insider to the telecasts. I'm certain he can do it, but he needs the push to make it happen. If he does not feel comfortable in that role, then bring Peter Kostis off of the course and put him in the booth.

Factual errors still plague the telecasts. There were probably a dozen times over the weekend that the announcers failed to correctly identify whether a putt was for par, bogey, or birdie. Even at times the crew did not even correctly report a player's score in relationship to par or in comparison to others on the leaderboard. There is no room for those kinds of lazy mistakes in a telecast of a major championship. Save that stuff for the events that no one watches.

I would like to see more graphical analysis of what is actually happening on the course in terms of strategy. The fly-by of a hole can only tell you so much about the strategy involved in playing that hole. Explain the slope of the fairways, their widths, what most players are doing and whether or not a hole has an accessible pin placement. Fans can deduce which holes are birdie opportunities, but detail why they are.

Lastly, demonstrate the ebbs and flows of a golf tournament among the entire field. Eighteen-hole coverage of the leaders is great, but I would also like to be apprised of guys who are making a move, how they did it, and what led to their success that the charging leaders may also do. Make more use of statistics to show why players are succeeding, or how they are succeeding despite weaknesses. Have a little information bar at the bottom of the screen that shows the current player and his key stats, but also use that bar to keep the viewer abreast of runs and changes elsewhere on the golf course. While it may have been a one-man show on Sunday, CBS (and other networks) can present an entire golf tournament.

I suggest these changes as a way of making golf more interesting for me and the average fan. I love to watch golf and want to make sure that I am getting the most out of the telecasts. Currently, I don't think that I am getting the most bang for my free television dollar. But there are opportunities to make changes that will improve the telecasts, compel viewers, and tell a better story. The best part is that they are simple and with some gentle prodding could be implemented quickly and change how golf is viewed on television.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 7:19 PM | Comments (7)

August 19, 2006

I'm a "MNF" Apologist

That I've been asked my thoughts on Tony Kornheiser's "Monday Night Football" debut this week more than Greg Anderson has been asked about testifying against Barry Bonds indicates an undeniable interest in the new ESPN booth.

My first answer is universally the same and obviously contrarian: that I believe the "Monday Night Football" franchise is effectively dead, having moved from broadcast TV to cable. Even in this electronically-segregated society, we are still creatures of television viewing habits, just like our parents. There's simply no other explanation for some of the most captivating, well-written programs on television — which happen to be on cable television — getting a fraction of the ratings that broadcast shows featuring dancers in tight pants, singers with bad voices, and news specials using hidden cameras to punk sexual predators receive.

I believe we've become so slothful a society that pushing a few buttons to go from HBO to the local 11 PM news has become too arduous a task — better to just leave on whatever crap that runs from 10-11 PM on NBC until some dude in a cheap suit, blow-dried hair, and a mutant smile tells us about the next item we can no longer safely bring aboard a 747. (At this rate, how long before they take away our Constitutional right to carry snakes on a plane?)

(Which, based on a sold-out 10 PM screening here in DC, is one of my top five movie-going experiences of all-time. See "Snakes on a Plane" with a crowd, people. A young, drunk crowd.)

The bottom line is that NBC's Sunday Night Football is the new "MNF," and I think the ratings will bear that out this season. If they don't, and ESPN's new franchise outdraws NBC's, many will point to the gravitas of its history or the quality of its games. I, on the other hand, will give credit where credit is due: I will direct all tributes to Tony Kornheiser.

There's no doubt he's created buzz, based not only on his presence in the booth, but on his well-reviewed debut this week. (Well, save for the back-stabbing the Washington Post gave its most famous sports columnist — with friends like these...) I used to think he was "famous for ESPN," but it appears his appeal has spilled over into the mainstream in a way that the utter disaster of his biographical sitcom on CBS didn't indicate. People know him.

But do they like him?

That's beside the point. He's not likable — he's a curmudgeonly cynic that needs sidekicks to humanize him, like Andy Pollin on his radio show and Michael Wilbon on the television show. There's zero warmth coming from Kornheiser, but that's his shtick. He's not the guy you want to have a beer with — he's the guy your friend brought along who makes you laugh by tearing down others, but annoys the crap out of you every time he complains about the climate in the bar or the size of his chair — which is often.

I was looking for that persona on his "MNF" debut and didn't see it, save for his annoyance at the end of the game, bemoaning the sudden realization that overtime could be looming. The rest of the time, cynicism was replaced by normalcy. His comments were obvious, pedestrian — the sort of insights any football fan that's logged more than three seasons watching the sport can spew off the top of his head. Maybe it was nerves. Maybe it was the material he was working with on the field. Or maybe his improv skills just aren't that sharp when covering unfolding action rather than analyzing yesterday's news.

Kornheiser also wasn't funny. He made me laugh three times during the game: that overtime lament, a line about the Raiders coaches being a better offensive line than the actual Raiders offensive line, and answering "Barcelona" when asked where He Hate Me played his XFL ball. The majority of the comedy bits were strained, the punchlines innocuous and disposable. His lowest point came when he was fed a viewer-submitted question about team nicknames (i.e. "Purple People Eaters") that he immediately deemed too difficult and then passed to his booth mates, for whom comedy is an undiscovered country.

Kornheiser was at his best when providing needles for Joe Theismann's Thanksgiving Parade-sized balloons, but that can only carry you so far — if the trend continues, this booth is going to sound like a revamp of the Theismann/Paul Maguire Wars of ESPN's Sunday night games. Hopefully, Mike Tirico is a better debate moderator than he is a football play-by-play man.

I'm not going to pass judgment on Kornheiser until I hear him handle a tight game between division rivals in the fourth quarter. Bring something to the table then and these humble beginnings are forgiven. What's exciting about the guy is that he's avoided being pigeonholed into a traditional "football booth" role. Some people think he's the comic relief. Others think he's the hired gun to say outrageous (yet honest) things that the ex-players would never say. The fact is that he's a little of both, and I hope he remains that way.

But what he needs to do, and in turn what ESPN needs to do, is to build up some football credibility during the broadcast. The network seemed content with tossing Kornheiser out there as Mr. Sports Expert without ever having to establish that expertise. Is there another color commentator in the NFL with such little credibility? Even Randy Cross has more than Kornheiser begins with.

It's an easy fix: have Tony interview some pros during the game, showing he can hang with the big boys. Have him drop a few more names, have him reference a few more games he's written about for the Post. Establish him as a football guy — even if, in reality, he's just a basketball guy masquerading as one — because otherwise all you have is the second coming of Dennis Miller.

Comparisons to Miller were inevitable, and now they're unavoidable after Kornheiser showed the same kind of flair for the obvious that Miller showed in his "MNF" work. Kornheiser is destined to be better for several reasons, like having more clearly defined standards from the network, knowing the game better, and not feeling the need to compare a running back's ankle being taped to Christo enveloping the Pont Neuf (an actual Miller reference on the air). Like I wrote in "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer," how could Miller and ABC not know that his humor wasn't going to fly with a mainstream audience that still giggles at the name Marion Butts?

There's no revisionist history on Miller — he was a disaster.

But I think it's time we give Lisa Guerrero a well-deserved apology.

You remember her, right? She was hired to replace Melissa Stark on "MNF" after a stellar career that included playing "Volunteer Bimbo" in "Batman Returns." Sideline reporters are useless enough, and that Guerrero didn't really know all that much about football (or speaking without reading her notes or the benefit of the teleprompter) elevated uselessness into an art form.

Or so we thought. Her most infamous moment came after the 2003 season-opener between the New York Jets and the Washington Redskins, a team that had raided the Jets for several free agents in the offseason. One of those signings was wide receiver Laveranues Coles. When Guererro approached Redskins quarterback Patrick Ramsey after his team's win over the Jets, she said: "I saw you talking to Laveranues Coles, your ex-teammate (before the game.) What did he say to you?"

Ramsey didn't have an answer, because Coles had just joined the Redskins and Ramsey had never played for the Jets. When Guererro again asked about his ex-teammates on the Jets, Ramsey gave whatever reply he could muster while ABC Sports executives drowned themselves in pity scotch.

Guererro was fired by ABC the following spring, which is a shame in hindsight.

Patrick Ramsey is now a Jets backup quarterback.

Laveranues Coles is the team's starting wide receiver.

We were all calling Lisa Guerrero a moron, and it turns out the girl can actually PREDICT THE FUTURE.

Apologies, Lisa. My e-mail's at the end of the column if you want to send over next week's Mega Millions numbers.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 9:19 PM | Comments (0)

August 18, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Houston Texans

Last Year

Baby steps had been the name of the game for the Houston Texans as they crawled up the NFL ladder in minor increments during their first three seasons of existence. Their win totals of four, then five, then seven games suggested that they were ready to produce their first non-losing season in 2005. Instead, the franchise output a calamitous two-win campaign. With a new conductor in place and the success bar as low as ever, the Texans will try to turn the page on last year's disaster and return to the grouping of growing teams. So far, so good.

What We Learned From Last Year

Every team is optimistic in the offseason. Coaches preach success, players eye the Super Bowl, and fans incessantly rave about their team.

The Texans were no different heading into the 2005 season and although very few people could have predicted a meager two-win crop, there were ominous red flags that foreboded trouble.

The trepidations had stemmed the foundation of the team, more specifically, the performance on the line of scrimmage.

The offensive line had permitted opponents to sack franchise quarterback David Carr 140 times in his first three seasons, while the defensive line, which proved to be equally inept, finished last and second-last in sack total at the completion of the previous two seasons.

The unit that protected Carr was riddled with busts and underachievers, who either arrived via draft or free agency. Tackle Todd Wade was presented with a lavish $10 million signing bonus and a long-term contract to secure a tackle position, but mustered unspectacular performances in only nine games. You can chalk Victor Riley as another import who busted, while Chester Pitts never met second-round expectations and Milford Brown often looked confused. With the likes of Seth Wand, Steve McKinney, and Zach Weigert all manning positions on the line, it was clear that the Texans' linemen not only played without any chemistry, they were mostly comprised of stopgap players.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans' defense just never looked comfortable in the 3-4 scheme. The majority of the players imported were inexperienced with this type of alignment and clearly looked out of place. Defensive tackle Robaire Smith, who received a six-year, $34.6 million deal last summer, started at the end position while first-round pick Travis Johnson also rotated off the edge. Both were natural tackles and struggled to adjust to their new role. At nose tackle, an aging Seth Wand wore down and his moderate effectiveness diminished as the season progressed.

The four linebackers behind the front three continued the theme of misused talent as converted defensive end Jason Babin lost his starting job at the outside position to Shantee Orr. Morlon Greenwood endured the rigors of the 3-4 switch and although he led the defense in tackles, he did not make many game-altering plays in his first season in Houston.

The Texans had several talented players at the extremities on both offense and defense, but porous play at the line of scrimmage negated any strengths.

On offense, Andre Johnson was often blanketed by opposing secondaries and struggled to beat the double-coverage. Corey Bradford and Jabar Gaffney were decent "B" and "C" options, but neither offered consistent explosiveness to warrant special attention. The lack of a reliable tight end further limited passing lanes. Running back Domanick Davis was once again an unheralded workhorse, who rarely seems to get applause for his work.

On the outside of the defense, the Texans appeared to have the most promising young duo of cornerbacks when they acquired Phillip Buchanon from the Oakland Raiders for a second- and third-round pick, but Buchanon did not hold up his end of the bargain in his first season. Dunta Robinson, on the other hand, is one of the NFL's best-kept secrets.

Overall, the Texans are not as bereft of talent as one might sense a 2-14 team to be. A switch to a 4-3 defense will slot the playmakers in their front seven back to their natural positions and an infusion of talent and coaching into the offensive line should finally unlock an offense that was handcuffed by shoddy protection.

This Year

The Texans had their most effective offseason to date, replenishing their roster through the draft and free agency and not surprisingly enough, Coach Gary Kubiak and company assessed that the Texans drastically needed to improve their lines.

The offensive line likely found their tackle tandem of the future in third-round picks Eric Winston and Charles Spencer and added veteran Mike Flanagan in free agency. The Texans will be switching to a zone-blocking scheme, which means there will likely be an adjustment period. Flanagan's leadership will be vital and along with the two rookie tackles, this unit will already be much better.

The Texans made the right choice in drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush simply because Williams plugs a hole on this team, while drafting Bush would have been redundant — on some levels.

Although the Texans don't have an explosive, hyped runner in their backfield, they do have an underrated, productive back in Domanick Davis and a quality prospect in Vernand Morency. Kubiak was part of Denver's 1,000-yard back factory and these two runners should see an increase of production because of an improved line and smarter coaching.

Everyone around camp is raving about the progress David Carr has made in the offseason and if his entourage of blockers can keep him under 100 hits this season, he should finally breakout.

Receiver Andre Johnson will have his first reliable starting partner in Eric Moulds, who was acquired for a fifth-round pick. Moulds is an 11-year vet who will have a lot of wisdom to pass along to Johnson. Moulds has lost a step and has never pieced together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, but he is an excellent possession wideout who will take attention and pressure off of Johnson.

Tight end Jeb Putzier and wideout Kevin Walter were also signed, who are another pair of sure-handed targets. Carr has more options this year than he has ever had before.

It is of the essence that the one-time touted Triplets of Carr, Johnson, and Davis step it up. Davis has been the most consistent contributor, but the production of Carr and Johnson this season will fully tell whether they still hold the superstar potential that they were once deemed to have.

On defense, the front four figures to be much more effective than last season with the addition of Williams and free agent Anthony Weaver. Williams is pretty much a sure thing, but Weaver got a ton of money for a player who has only shown flashes here and there. He will start at tackle with Robaire Smith. Former first-round pick Travis Johnson has shed some weight and is working hard to put together a stronger second season and along with Seth Wand, the Texans finally have some depth at tackle.

They will also have a deeper rotation on the ends as Jason Babin and Antwan Peek were both solid defensive ends in college, before they were changed to linebackers. N.D. Kalu should also help out in spots.

The second level also stands to gain from the switch back to the 4-3. Sam Cowart is a seasoned veteran who will man the middle. Injuries and age have narrowed his skills, but he can stop a gap for a season. Morlon Greenwood should be more comfortable back in the 4-3 and the Texans are very high on second-round pick, Demeco Ryans, who will likely start at one of the three positions right off the bat. Kailee Wong should also be of service, as he fended off injuries and retirement to return.

The defense has already suffered a couple of key injuries with the loss of linebacker Wali Rainer (broken leg) for the season and starting cornerback Demarcus Faggins (broken foot) for more than the first month of the regular season.

Faggins took the starter's role from Buchanon at the end of last season, but the good news is that Buchanon has been working hard — staying late after practice — to hone his tackling skills and regain his spot. This is a contract year for Buchanon, so expect good things from the former first-rounder. If he plays well, and Faggins can return after the team's October 5th bye week, the cornerbacks shouldn't be the biggest concern.

The Texans will start Glenn Earl and C.C. Brown as their safeties, but these two are borderline starters right. Earl is a big hitter, but has much to prove in coverage, while Brown is more versatile, but more likely a backup.

New defensive coordinator Richard Smith is all about pressure. He seems to have the adequate pieces on the defensive line to help out his secondary and with a more aggressive approach, the Texans will improve on their 31st total defense ranking.

This team was 7-9 in 2004 and with a re-tooled offensive and defensive line, combined with a strong infusion of quality rookies, the Texans should be back on track as a barking underdog in the NFL and will no longer be a pushover from week to week.

Over/Under: 5.5

With a coaching staff who knows what their doing, the Texans immediately go from underachiever to underdog. They are still behind Jacksonville and Indianapolis in this division, but with a couple of confidence-building wins early on, seven to eight wins is entirely possible. They play: PHI, @IND, WAS, MIA, @DAL, JAC, @TEN, @NYG, @JAC, BUF, @NYJ, @OAK, TEN, @NE, IND, and CLE.

Fantasy Sleeper

While the talk of the town has been David Carr, fantasy talk of Andre Johnson has been very quiet. With Eric Moulds and Jeb Putzier to keep defenses honest, Johnson will reassert himself as one of the top young wideouts in regular and fantasy football again. At this point, most fantasy players are not expecting much from him, but you won't regret having him on your team.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 7:03 PM | Comments (0)

Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years (Pt. 4)

Continued from part one, part two, and part three.

Every decade has about 10 to 15 players who are above and beyond the rest of the league. The '90s had guys like Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones, and Barry Bonds. In the 2000s, we're seeing guys like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter cementing their Hall of Fame careers. And this "Universe Draft" is about trying to find the guys that will be one of those elite 10-to-15 players in the 2010s and beyond.

But in every era, there seems to be a significant drop-off of talent after about the first dozen players. And we'll see that drop off in the following picks, Nos. 16-20, after these players who were taken in the top 15:

1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
6. Athletics — Joe Mauer
7. Braves — Justin Verlander
8. Tigers — David Wright
9. Cardinals — Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox — Johan Santana
11. Mets — Jose Reyes
12. Indians — Grady Sizemore
13. Twins — Dontrelle Willis
14. Blue Jays — Jered Weaver
15. Angels — Ryan Howard

The next five teams to draft will be:

16. Houston Astros
17. Cincinnati Reds
18. San Diego Padres
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
20. Seattle Mariners

And with that, let's continue with the draft:

16. Astros

The proven all-stars left on the board are Carlos Zambrano, Adam Dunn, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Hank Blalock, Mark Texeira, and Alex Rios. All of those guys, with the exception of Cano, are over 25. This means a lot of these guys have already reached their peak and the improvement from here will not be significant.

As of late, Zambrano is proving why he has been an all-star for the past few seasons. Not only does he swing a mean bat, but he pitches like a madman. And in cozy Minute Made Ballpark (forever Enron in my heart), they'll need a groundball pitcher like Zambrano to keep them in a seven-game series.

The pick: Carlos Zambrano

17. Reds

The Reds have always been on the downswing since Griffey arrived. They've never been experienced enough and talented enough at the same time to be a threat late in the season. The pitchers left on the board are, well ... there are none, really. Pitchers in baseball are like running backs in fantasy football — everyone knows it's what wins games.

So where do the Reds go from here? This late in the draft, it's about getting sure things. It's about getting guys who can make a quality start 95 percent of the time, or about getting guys that will bat .300 each season with solid power numbers. Since the former isn't available, the Reds will have to settle for a position player.

They're own player, Adam Dunn, is still on the board, but are power hitters who don't hit for average more valuable to a team that guys who get on base often? According to Billy Beane and Moneyball, nope.

So with that, the Reds go with a guy who will hit .300, as well as drive in runs consistently.

The pick: Hank Blalock

18. Padres

The same principles apply for all the teams who pick this late: get a guy who is young and proven. There's always the temptation to take a guys like Prince Fielder or Rickie Weeks in hopes that they turn out to be great, but when the teams in front of you have Pujols, Wright, and Sizemore, it's tough to convince yourself to take a risk.

There are also guys like Josh Johnson, who is dominating the National League as a rookie. But banking on young pitchers who came out of no where is risky. Fluke seasons happen all the time for rookies who don't have great stuff, simply because there is something that the hitters have yet to pick up — we'll call it the "Hideo Nomo Rule," soon to be the "Dontrelle Willis Rule" if he flops anytime soon.

The Reds took Blalock because he was a sure thing, and the Padres will follow suit with Texeira, who has proven that he can stay healthy and be a consistent performer. It may seem like those prerequisites are easy to meet, but look around the league — only a few great players actually stay healthy throughout the grind of a season.

The pick: Mark Texeira

19. Diamondbacks

Remember when the D-Backs won the World Series behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling? Do you mind if I call that the cheapest World Series of all time? It seems utterly unfair to take two of the most dominant pitchers of this age and use them in a seven-game series — but it worked.

So as other teams are settling for good position players as opposed to risky or older pitchers, the D-Backs are going to take one of their own pitchers who they hope will develop into a Johnson or Schilling-type player. In other words, the D-Backs are looking to pitch their way through a series with two dominant starters.

The pick here is Brandon Webb, but the risk here is injury. In five years, Webb will be 33 — hardly youthful, and often a time when pitchers falter. But guys like Johnson, Schilling, Greg Maddux and even Jamie Moyer seen to be able to stick around forever. Why is that? Because of conditioning, or pitching style. Webb eerily reminds me of a Moyer, except Webb has about 10 mph on Moyer's fastball. Webb's command is incredible and if you watch him pitch, the batters are constantly off-balance. You don't see that with most other pitchers.

The pick: Brandon Webb

20. Mariners

The Mariners have always developed great talent — A-Rod, Griffey, Randy Johnson, Moyer… the list goes on. Many players have their breakthrough season with the Mariners and it seems to have something to do with their scouting. Where did Jose Lopez comes from? And how the hell did they find Felix Hernandez?

So needless to say, these guys know what they're doing. But it seems the team just hasn't been able to take advantage of their new ballpark. Safeco Field is a pitcher's haven (as opposed to the wretched Kingdome) and the Mariners' pitching has always been less-than-stellar.

Having figured out that the equation, Safeco + pitching = wins, the Mariners look for a pitcher ... but sadly, the pitching left on the board consists of Josh Johnson, Joel Zumaya, and Matt Cain. Okay, so it looks like the Mariners go back to finding some hitting — just like the olden days. And just like the olden days, they'll take an outfielder who hits mammoth home runs, but can't hit for average. Remember Jay Buhner?

The pick: Adam Dunn

I'm guessing you can see the drop-off in talent just about now. We go from Reyes, Willis, Sizemore, Weaver, and Howard to Zambrano, Blalock, Texeira, Webb, and Dunn. The difference here is ag e— the latter group will all be 30 or older in five years. The guys picked 10-15 will not be older than 30 for six to seven years (with the exception of Howard).

The next five picks will be as follows. In the previous columns, I explained why each team got each pick. But these last 10 teams are just plain bad, so it's just simply the 10 worst teams in order of how bad they've been in recent memory.

21. Philadelphia Phillies
22. Colorado Rockies
23. Washington Nationals
24. Los Angeles Dodgers
25. San Francisco Giants

Stay tuned for part five of this six-part series. Visit the archives for part one, part two, and part three.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 6:29 PM | Comments (0)

August 17, 2006

College Football '06 Winners and Losers

The best season of the year is less than a month away and most college football fans have picked up their favorite preview publications to begin the debate about its predictions. They also look to see which schools are expected to contend for the national championship, which ones have no chance, and which ones might end up being the "Cinderella story out of nowhere."

To add fuel to the fire, the preseason coaches poll was released several days ago, so fans can compare what the coaches think to what their favorite magazine writers think.

Of course, no magazine or poll can be taken as the be-all-end-all of predictors, which is why the BCS takes several polls and averages them. The same can be done with the major preview publications to reach a "consensus" list. One particular website has done the legwork of compiling these predictions each season since 1993 to create the consensus list based on a point system. For instance, for last season's predictions, 11 of the 12 publications reviewed listed USC as their preseason number one. This year, they're not as unified.

Eleven magazines or websites are included in this year's list, five of which rank Notre Dame as the top team in the land. The other six are split between Ohio State and Oklahoma, and the coaches have crowned the Buckeyes as the favorite, as well. Since 1993, the coaches have correctly predicted the national champion four times; three of those champions also were predicted by the writers. Does that mean anything? Other than one year the coaches might have known something the media didn't, not really. Should one go to Vegas and bet the farm on Ohio State this year? I wouldn't recommend it.

However, the coaches and writers do agree on who are the best 10 teams in the nation, although the positions don't always matchup. In fact, they pretty much have the same teams in the top 25 with a couple exceptions: the coaches have Oregon and Alabama in their top 25 while the writers replace them with Arizona State and Utah — none of the four finished 2005 with a national ranking. That holds true for Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee, all of which are expected to do well this season.

To focus on the preseason consensus from here on out, let's look at who the biggest "winners and losers" are from last year to this. Aside from the five unranked teams at the end of last season who are on this year's list (Michigan ranks the highest at No. 14), Oklahoma is the biggest winner. Finishing 2005 with a No. 22 ranking in both the AP and coaches poll, the writers love 'em in 2006 with a consensus fourth position.

Another team with a big jump in the polls from last year is Florida State. The Seminoles were ranked 23rd when all was said and done at the end of the bowl season, but the publication consensus has them 10th to start 2006. Two teams that start the season ranked higher than FSU, but did not have as large a leap up the ladder are Notre Dame, which finished 9/10 in the two polls last year and are the consensus favorite this year, and Auburn, with a preseason ranking of 6 from a season-ending 14.

One other squad with a big jump, although not expected to contend for the national title, is Cal. The Golden Bears start the season ranked 13th after finishing 2005 at the bottom of the top 25. Louisville is expected to better this year than last, starting out at No. 11 following a 19/20 ranking to end 2005. Finally, Miami also had a mildly significant jump, up from 17/18 to 12, and Nebraska starts out 18th after finishing 24th last season.

As far as the "losers" go, the team with the biggest drop is Penn State. The Nittany Lions finished 2005 with a No. 3 ranking, but start this season all the way down at 19. Texas Christian also fell significantly, starting this season 25th after an 11/9 finish in 2005. Virginia Tech is way down this season, gathering a 17-spot from the consensus after ranking 7th at the end of last season, and Georgia starts out 16th after ranking 10th to end 2005.

Teams that finished the 2005 season ranked, but did not crack the consensus top 25 to begin this season are Alabama (8), Oregon (13/12), Wisconsin, (15), UCLA (16/13), and Boston College (18/17).

Of course, in the end, the polls and predictions don't matter — it's what happens on the field between the end of August and early December. But that's one of the reasons we watch throughout the season, to see if any of those predictions come true. How many times in mid-October have we been talking football with someone and heard or said, "Man, so-and-so was supposed to be good this year — what happened to them?" Or, "Look at those guys in the top five — they were supposed to be horrible!" That's what makes college football so great and fun to follow. Can't wait for kickoff!

Posted by Adam Russell at 10:40 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 22

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson struggled to a 17th-place finish at Watkins Glen, only his fifth result out of the top 10 this year. He did, however, expand his points lead 17 points to 124 over Matt Kenseth, who finished 21st.

"I guess I need work on my right-hand turning," says Johnson. "I had the car on auto-pilot at Indianapolis. It's not like you really have to drive there. A few easy left-handers every lap and floor it. Watkins Glen is a little more tricky. I didn't even know my steering wheel would turn clockwise."

2. Kevin Harvick — Harvick passed Tony Stewart with three laps to go to collect his second win of the year and first road-course win of his Nextel Cup career. The Watkins Glen win vaulted Harvick to number three in the Nextel points, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 323 points.

"That's what good, hard racing between friends is all about," says Harvick. "As you know, I'm Tony's best friend, which, in Tony's world, still makes me his enemy."

3. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth suffered a bad luck trifecta: an untimely caution, a blocked pit stall, and involvement in a seven-car accident. Still, the No. 17 Dewalt Ford, with the aid of quite a bit of duct tape, salvaged a 21st-place finish despite the misfortune.

"Duct tape is a fix for anything," says Kenseth. "I hear that if placed strategically, it can get Jeremy Mayfield to quit whining to Ray Evernham."

4. Kyle Busch — The younger Busch cashed in the Lucky Dog five times, a NASCAR record, after a rear suspension malfunction left him several laps down. Miraculously, Busch made up the lap deficits and finished a solid ninth and remained fifth in the points, 370 out of first.

"When is Lucky Dog dog food going to step up and sign a sponsorship deal for the Lucky Dog free pass?" asks Busch. "Everything else in NASCAR has a sponsor — why can't that? I guess I'm the Luckiest Dog, but my brother Kurt is the Unluckiest Dog. NASCAR issued a stiff penalty for Kurt pitting too early. All the way to the tail end of the longest line? That's harsh. I think a more appropriate penalty would be community service, maybe picking up garbage with Boy George."

5. Jeff Burton — Burton just missed his 14th top-10 of the year with an 11th-place finish in the AMD at the Glen. He now sits fourth in the points after dropping one spot to fourth.

"Can someone tell me what the 'AMD' in the 'AMD at the Glen' stands for?" asks Burton. "That is, someone who wasn't in the AMD hospitality tent enjoying free liquor and hors d'oevres who knows nothing about racing."

6. Tony Stewart — Fans witnessed the impossible on Sunday at Watkins Glen — Tony Stewart actually congratulated a driver who passed him. Stewart surrendered the lead to Kevin Harvick on lap 87, and Stewart failed to repeat his victory of last year at the Glen.

"Kevin deserved the win," says Stewart. "Actually, Kurt Busch deserved the win. What a bogus penalty. But I understand NASCAR's reasoning — they didn't want to see Kurt do another snow angel like he did after winning Saturday's Busch race."

7. Mark Martin — Martin finished 20th on an up-and-down day for Roush Racing. Teammates Jamie McMurray and Carl Edwards scored top-10 finishes, while Matt Kenseth finshed 21st, and Greg Biffle's Chase hopes took another big hit as he finished 38th.

"That's also known as a 3-5-20-21-38 Roush finish," says Martin. "Not exactly a 1-2-3-4-5 Roush finish, but it'll have to do. At least Jamie McMurray had a finish lower than his car number."

8. Jeff Gordon — Gordon was well on his way to a top-10 finish when he was spun under braking by Mark Martin on lap 66. Gordon recovered and made a few late passes to salvage 13th-place.

"Boy, was I hot when Martin spun me," says Gordon. "I was ready to hunt him down in the garage, but then I remembered that Mark is a rapper and was probably packing, and could have rhymed me under the table anyway. Luckily, Mark apologized, so we avoided another rapper versus rapper feud."

9. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin picked up his 10th top-10 of the year with a workmanlike finish of 10th at Watkins Glen. A higher finish was definitely possible, but an untimely caution shuffled Hamlin back in the field, but he powered back four his fourth-straight top-10 finish.

"I know I'm just a rookie," Hamlin comments, "but I figure I deserve a new ride next year. I'm eighth in the points with two wins, while guys like Brian Vickers, Jeremy Mayfield, and Casey Mears get new cars for doing absolutely nothing. By that rationale, I qualify to take over for Michael Schumacher in the Formula 1 Ferrari machine."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt remained 10th in the points with an 18th-place at Watkins Glen. After a spin on lap 74, he fell to 36th, but passed 10 cars in the final five laps to break the top 20.

"Last week, I called out my team for not giving me a car not capable of winning," says Earnhardt. "This week, my team called me out, for spending too much time selling Wrangler jeans."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:31 PM | Comments (0)

August 16, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Green Bay Packers

Last Year

All good things come to an end: L.C. and Jason, Heidi and Jordan, and 13 consecutive non-losing seasons for the Green Bay Packers. Losses in free agency and losses to injury left star quarterback Brett Favre as the lone soldier and at the age of 36, although his skills were intact, he couldn't do it alone. Favre claims this is the most talented team in all his seasons at Lambeau Field, but his Packers have much to prove as the Mike McCarthy era begins.

What We Learned From Last Year

If there is such thing as the injury bug, the Packers experienced the plague in 2005.

Few teams were bitten harder than the Packers and no team would have had the depth to deal.

Between the medical center and free agency, the offense took a severe personnel beating. Javon Walker, Terrence Murphy, Ahman Green, and Najeh Davenport suffered season-ending injuries, Pro Bowl guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera were lost in free agency. Throw in wide-out Robert Ferguson for five games, tight end Bubba Franks for six, and Tony Fisher for a couple and the Packers' offense was stripped down to its third strings.

That paved the way for rookie Samkon Gado to emerge with three 100-yard games and six touchdowns in eight games, before he also succumbed to a season-ending knee injury.

Much is going to be made about Brett Favre getting old and his skills waning with age, but those conjectures are far from accurate.

Favre is still capable of taking a complete team to the Super Bowl. He is still good for the two-minute drill at the end of each half, he is still valuable leader, and he still has a cannon for an arm. But what he can no longer do is carry a team by himself.

Quarterbacks like Favre, or even Jake Plummer, always overexert themselves to ensure their team wins. While their determination is appreciated, they will often end up forcing too many plays if they don't have playmakers they can trust.

Last year, Favre was really short on reliable teammates and that's why his interception total ballooned.

Among the wide receivers, Donald Driver continued to be the most dependable target. While Walker was out, Ferguson, once again, had a chance to step up, but he remained inconsistent. Antonio Chatman took on an increased role, setting personal bests for receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, but he is better suited for special teams and was overused.

One area that struggled even before the injuries was the play of the offensive line. They were atrocious before and after. Deciding not to re-sign either All-Pro guards was a mind-boggling conclusion for the Packers and the amount of sacks that they permitted nearly doubled in 2005, one year after a allowing a league-best 14. Many people will claim that the tread on Green's tires wore out, but he really didn't have many open lanes because of the front five.

Expectations were fairly low for the Packers defense heading into 2005 and as the offense kept losing parts, the defense simply couldn't keep them in games.

The final rank of seventh doesn't really do this "break, but don't bend" defense justice. The 21.1 points per game that they allowed along with their 19th rank in that category is more accurate.

Defensive coordinator Jim Bates is underrated and really milked what he could out of this unit.

The defensive line was weak up the middle, although Aaron Kampman had another good season on the end. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila continued to be the one-dimensional pass rusher that he is and was overused because there wasn't much depth behind him.

The linebackers were also short on talent as Nick Barnett was missing helpers on his right and left. The Packers have made over their linebackers corps for this season, but it is worth noting that although Barnett has led the Packers in tackles the last three seasons, he doesn't make many game-changing plays.

In the secondary, first-round bust Ahmad Carroll was often penalized and quite frankly, is lucky to still be with the team. Rookie free safety Nick Collins was a bright spot among the defensive backs.

With Favre forcing the ball on offense and the defense unable to generate big plays, the Packers finished with the league's worst turnover ratio at -24.

Favre mulled retirement in the offseason, but is coming back for at least one more season. With an excellent draft, the Packers have found several contributors who will be part of their future, but how soon can they help?

This Year

The Packers shaved nearly eight points off of their per-game offensive output in 2005 and their first order of business will be to regain their scoring touch.

It's really not too complicated — if they are healthy, they will at the very least top 20 points per game.

Believe it or not, Javon Walker won't be missed too much. That's not a knock on his talent, but Favre always makes his wide receivers into playmakers. Driver returns as the top wideout for now and rookie Greg Jennings, who is earning a ton of praise in training camp, will probably start opposite him. The Packers have much more depth at the position this year with Rod Gardner, Marc Boerigter, and Robert Ferguson in the mix, as well. Factor in a healthy Bubba Franks and Favre will have plenty of targets.

Franks is more of a one-dimensional pass catcher, but the team is stocked with better blockers such as David Martin and Donald Lee. New offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzkinski is a former Packers' tight end coach and he will have to get creative to get them all involved.

Mike McCarthy is still planning on implementing the West Coast offense, but he will add a downfield element to it that was not present under former coach Mike Sherman.

Jagodzinski was the Atlanta Falcons' offensive line coach last season and he brought with him a new zone blocking scheme. Although the system is simpler than the man-to-man blocking, the front five have had a tough time picking it up so far.

Part of that has to do with the inexperience that will be starting with on their offensive line. Second-round pick Daryn Colledge and fourth-round pick Jason Spitz will both probably start right from the get-go. The Pack will also throw in a new starting center, Scott Wells, after veteran Mike Flanagan bolted to Houston as a free agent.

Spitz and Colledge have a very bright future, but you have to expect the interior of this line to get tested early on. Stalwart tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton return, but there is little depth behind them. Adrian Klemm and Kevin Barry are already lost for the season and Will Whitticker has had some weight problems, which has dropped him on the depth chart. The main concern here is that Clifton had ankle and knee surgeries, which might nag into the season.

The uncertainties up front stimulate anxiety in regards to the running game, but Ahman Green's return from a ruptured quadriceps is the bigger concern. He is still under the magical age of 30, but this type of injury could limit his effectiveness the whole season. We will quickly find out whether Sam Gado is another Nick Goings and whether Davenport can carry a full load.

On defense, the Packers are keeping the aggressive scheme of Jim Bates in place, even though he is not back with the team. More importantly, they have finally added a slew of playmakers to implement it.

In the secondary, the Packers may have drastically overpaid for Charles Woodson, but he is still a valuable addition. Al Harris is sometimes overmatched with top wideouts, but know he won't have to face that challenge on his own. Pushing him to the second spot and Ahmad Carroll to the nickel role puts the cornerback depth chart in better order.

The safety position will receiver addition by subtraction, as Mark Roman complained too much for the amount he contributed, and addition by free agency, as Marquand Manuel was signed from Seattle. The tandem of Manuel and Collins is inexperienced, but both have upside.

The major makeover comes at the linebacking position, where Nick Barnett will be joined by two quality rookies and one quality backup. First-round pick A.J. Hawk will contribute right off the bat and second-round Abdul Hodge might start on the outside, but will likely be groomed to replace Barnett eventually. Barnett is still a good player, but he no longer looks like he will develop into a top-10 linebacker. Ben Taylor will likely start on the outside while Hodge adjusts to the pros. If Hodge and Hawk blossom early on, the Packers might move Barnett or Hodge in order to get their three best linebackers on the field at once.

The front four is still a weak unit for the Packers, even though they added Ryan Pickett from St. Louis. He didn't accomplish much for the Rams, but some good coaching could make him serviceable. The Pack still don't have an every down defensive end opposite of Kampman and will be forced to overuse sack specialist Gbaja-Biamila once again.

The Packers had a very strong draft and will depend on several rookies right off the bat. The problem with freshman is that inconsistency will a recurring dilemma every single week. There are a number of uncertainties among the Packers rosters in regards to young players handling starting roles or previous starters returning from injuries and they could have got a jump start on team chemistry in the offseason, but had a very poor showing of players during organized team activities.

Favre is right, the talent is now in place, but it is just a question of how soon can they develop.

Over/Under: 6

The Packers will not be a playoff team in 2006, but look for them to have a strong second half as the whole team grows more comfortable with the new changes. If they stick with Favre through their struggles this season, they should contend for a playoff spot a year from now. They play: CHI, NO, @DET, @PHI, STL, @MIA, ARZ, @BUF, @MIN, NE, @SEA, NYJ, SF, DET, MIN, and @CHI.

Fantasy Sleeper

Bubba Franks has long been a Favre favorite in the red zone, but last year he only found the end zone once. With a new offensive coordinator who used to coach tight ends, the plan is to incorporate Franks much more into the offense. Expect him to be around 400 yards and at least five touchdowns this season.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 6:14 PM | Comments (3)

The Future is Now For Michael Vick

There comes a time in almost every athlete's career when he or she must shelve the excuses, tune out the criticism, say no to certain extracurricular activities off the playing field, and ascend to new heights of athletic performance.

For Falcons' quarterback Michael Vick, that time is now.

It's been five years since the Falcons made the earth-shattering move of trading up for the first pick in the 2001 NFL Draft, essentially for the rights to select Vick. Five seasons, no MVP awards, and zero Super Bowl appearances later, Vick is heading into the 2006 campaign with arguably more pressure on his shoulders than any other player in the league.

Of course pressure is nothing new to No. 7, as every year he — and the entire city of Atlanta — knows that as he goes, so go the Falcons. Vick is more valuable to his team than anyone in the NFL not named Peyton Manning and maybe Tom Brady. I am not saying Vick is the second or third best player in the league. I'm not even saying he's in the top 15 of that category.

But on the rare occasions when LaDanian Tomlinson has been shut down by opposing defenses, Drew Brees and Antonio Gates have stepped up and the Chargers have been just fine. When Tiki Barber has those games where he tries to be too cute and gets tripped up for so many negative yard runs that he's mistaken for the second coming of Barry Sanders, Eli Manning simply airs it out to Plaxico or Jeremy Shockey or any other weapon in the Giants' offensive arsenal. Heck, even when Tom Brady can't hit the broad side of a barnyard with his normally trusty right arm, Corey Dillon either runs for 200 yards or Adam Vinatieri (in the past) kicks five field goals and wins the game as time expires.

Vick has Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, a respectable complimentary unit on the other side of the ball, but not much else. Dunn — all five feet, eight inches of him — is almost worth the price of admission, but it's no secret that Dunn needs help from the rest of his offense to work his magic.

Crumpler runs great routes and possesses out-of-this-world hands for a tight end. He is the only pass-catcher on the squad who can be relied on to pull down Vick's sizzling throws, most of which almost nobody on the field, including Vick, has any idea where they're going. But to say Crumpler is not a lynchpin of an offense, one that can serve as the catalyst to make all things go when the others have lost their game, would be an egregious understatement.

The Falcons' defense has been nice, albeit not spectacular, in recent years and could be even better this year with the addition of defensive end John Abraham and one year's worth of maturation for shutdown corner DeAngelo Hall. Deion "Prime Time" Sanders even made two cameo coaching appearances at training camp to work with the secondary, and if he's as incredible at coaching as he constantly insists he is, well then those two days should instantly vault the Falcons "D" to the top of the NFL. Yeah, right.

But seriously, while the defense should be pretty good, they couldn't stop the run even if the opposing running back was Maurice Clarett. I'm not talking about the Ohio State Clarett; I'm talking about the one that comes gift-wrapped in a jumpsuit and handcuffs. In other words, even on days when Atlanta's defense puts forth one of its best efforts, Vick will have to play up to his unparalleled potential if the Falcons have inclinations of outscoring the other team.

That's the bad news in a nutshell. The good news is that if there's one thing Vick can deal with, it's pressure. 1999 Sugar Bowl, anyone? Overtime at the Metrodome in 2002? 2003 NFC Divisional Playoff at Green Bay? Lest anyone forget, that's when Vick became the first visiting quarterback to win a playoff game at Lambeau Field. Fourth-and-goal from the 12-yard line late in the game against Carolina in Week 15 of the 2004 season with the division title hanging in the balance? That's when Vick took off for the end zone and dove from four yards out, while it seemed like only the Hand of God could be keeping his knee off the ground as he flew in for the tying score.

So no, don't even try to tell me or anyone else that Vick cannot stare pressure in the face and thrive in its midst.

Excuses, criticism, and off-the-field shenanigans are a whole different story.

Vick has offered his fair share of excuses in the past, and in most cases, he's had every right to do so. Just seven months after the Falcons stunner at Lambeau Field and Vick's simultaneous and meteoric rise to becoming the face of the NFL, it all came crashing down during a meaningless preseason game against the Ravens in August of 2003. Every Falcon fan's worst nightmare came true when No. 7 went down awkwardly at the hands of defensive end Adalius Thomas. I was there and let me tell you that if not for the news of Vick's broken leg spreading like wildfire throughout the Georgia Dome, you could have heard a pin drop on the turf for the duration of the game.

Goodbye, Michael Vick. Hello, 5-11 season.

Vick insists that he does not play scared and that he simply will not change his reckless style of play that is prone to injury. Yet there is no doubt that Vick has cut down on his tendency to flee the pocket and use his human-defying feet to move the ball downfield. Whether that has been Vick's own decision or Coach Jim Mora simply demanding that his quarterback no longer put his life in danger every other play, I do not know. What I do know is that it's time for Vick to do what he needs to do and do it by whatever means necessary. If that means running for 1,000 yards this season, great. If that means developing a comfort zone in the pocket and learning how to make accurate throws in the face of hard-charging linemen, outstanding. It just does not matter.

What does matter is putting an end to the excuse that the West Coast offense is stunting Vick's growth. I refuse to believe that Greg Knapp, Atlanta's offensive coordinator and generally respected as a pretty solid coach throughout the league, would be too blind to realize the shortcomings of the West Coast offense if that style really was the offense's Pandora's Box. Instead, Vick just needs to take what's given to him and make it work. That may sound like a lofty demand, but a former number one draft pick whom many believed would one day be the best player in the NFL must expect to be faced with other-worldly expectations.

A player of Vick's caliber must also be prepared to handle criticism day in and day out. While Vick has his fair share of worshipers (if you've ever seen "Around the Horn" on ESPN, you know what I'm talking about, as Woody Paige annually anoints Vick as the savior of the league and the Falcons as the should-be Super Bowl winners), there is an equally large group of people who seize every opportunity to criticize him.

During the 2004 season, while the Falcons chalked up wins despite Vick posting anything but spectacular numbers, the quarterback spewed, "If I'm winning, don't criticize me." For players of mere mortal talent that is a valid argument, but the standards are not the same for Michael Vick and he will be criticized until he consistently wins MVP of the league and multiple Super Bowls. In other words, the criticism will never end and he needs to understand that. He will never live up to some people's expectations, plain and simple. Such is the price of having almost supernatural talent.

Another price is being faced with constant scrutiny under the public eye. Now Vick is a genuinely good guy and has stayed out of trouble for the most part. Compared to his little brother Marcus, Michael is worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize, the Presidential Medal of Honor, and any other award that can be given for humanitarian efforts.

Nonetheless, he will never live down the infamous "Ron Mexico" scandal. More recently, a woman posted a picture of Vick on the Internet and claimed that he was smoking a joint in the photo. We don't know whether he was or was not, and quite frankly it doesn't matter whether he was or was not. What we do know is that Vick, and every other star of his magnitude, is held to unusually high standards off the field as well as on.

Quite simply, Vick must focus on football, football, and more football.

Everyone knows he has the physical tools to be a premier quarterback in the league, one capable of carrying a team on his shoulders all the way to the Super Bowl. All Vick needs to do is develop some passing accuracy and devote almost all of his free time — if he has any — to spending extra hours in the video room learning how to read defenses.

Easier said than done, I know. But to achieve Michael Vick standards, set by him, Falcon coaches, and Falcon fans alike, that is what it will take.

Your average 26-year-old athlete deserves a little patience from his or her fans. Michael Vick, as we know, is not your average 26-year-old. The time for patience with him is over.

The time for being a great athlete, but not necessarily a great football player, has passed. The time for making the playoffs but not going all the way has come and gone.

Michael Vick, this is your time.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 5:38 PM | Comments (2)

August 15, 2006

10 Predictions For the 2006 NFL Season

With the first NFL preseason games out of the way, it's official — the NFL is back. Though you can't dissect much from preseason games, the mere fact that the Eagles and Raiders have put one in the books has created a frenzy in sports arenas.

It won't be long before the new-look Dolphins take on the Super Bowl champion Steelers on Thursday, September 7, and until that first kick-off, here is a list of things you can bet on this season, and in that case, don't bet at all, I don't want to be held financially responsible.

1) Terrell Owens will have a monster year. As a Philadelphia Eagles fan, it pains me to say this. But the proof is in the pudding, and T.O. is a selfish star who will want to stick it to every one of his naysayers every game. The fact that he's in the NFC East only makes it that much sweeter — for him.

There's no doubt that he is one of the best wide receivers in the game, if not the best. He has the talent around him to flourish, and a quarterback who can get him the ball. Drew Bledsoe isn't Donovan McNabb, but he's definitely better than Jeff Garcia.

So as long as his hamstring heals, if that's really what's bothering him, expect big numbers from Owens, based solely on the fact that he's selfish (I have no animosity whatsoever).

2) Larry Johnson will not live up to the hype. Yes, it's true that Larry Johnson had an unbelievable year last year. Anyone would be insane not to think so. The fact that he rushed for 1,750 yards, 20 touchdowns, in just nine games, would make even a Raider fan giddy at the chance for 2,000 yards rushing.

There is one underlying factor though, that will eliminate Larry Johnson from the 2,000-yard club, or even the rushing title for that matter. Fullback Tony Richardson is no longer leading the way. Ask Jerome Bettis, who would buy a ticket to Honolulu for his fullback every year he made it to the Pro Bowl. Give LaDanian Tomlinson a call and ask him how much Lorenzo Neal means to him. Or how about Mack Strong's importance to Shaun Alexander?

Unless you're the Denver Broncos, you just don't lead the league in rushing without a stellar fullback in front of you. Which leads me to my next topic.

3) The Denver Broncos will have the most potent running attack ... again. Let's just put it this way, the Broncos produce 1,000-yard rushers like Pharrell produces hits. Whether it is Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Paris Hilton, or anybody else for that matter, they run.

Run, run, run is what they'll do again in 2006, and more productively. The reason, strength in numbers. Before training camp began, all the experts predicted either Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne to take over the Bronco galloping attack. Head coach Mike Shanahan, however, went a different route. Shanahan named undrafted rookie free agent Mike Bell, the go-to-guy. What does this mean for Denver? Trial and Error.

Shanahan said that it took three months for him to trust Terrell Davis, and that the Denver head coach trusted Mike bell after nine days. If he works, Shanahan is a running back god — if he doesn't, Dayne and Bell are waiting in the balance. Either way you look at it, 1,000 yards is in the cards once again.

4) Running backs will rule the rookie class. Yes, it's true that this was a defensive draft, but players that will make the most impact will be on the other side of the ball. Reggie Bush headlines the group that includes Bell, the Colts' Joseph Addai, Jaguars' Maurice Drew, Patriots' Laurence Maroney, Titans' LenDale White, and Panthers' DeAngelo Williams. All seven have a chance to start and make an impact right away, with Reggie Bush running away with Rookie of the Year honors despite sharing time with Deuce McAlister.

"The President" is just too explosive, too dangerous, simply too good, not to make an immediate impact and raise the suicide rate in Houston to epic proportions. Not to be overlooked however, is Addai. He's got the most explosive offense behind him, if he beats out Dominic Rhodes for the number one spot, he has a chance to be even keel with Bush, if not surpass him based on his situation.

5) Alex Smith will have a breakout year. Last year's number one pick has a new offensive line, a new tight end, plus Eric Johnson, a bigger and better wide receiver in Antonio Bryant, and enough confidence to feed a small village. The question is with all of that, can he exorcise the demons that led to 11 interceptions, 11 fumbles, and 1 touchdown in 2005.

As Yogi Berra once said, "baseball is 90 percent mental, the other half is physical." The same can be said for football, where, if you're not right in the head, you become another Ryan Leaf rather than a Tom Brady.

What Smith does have going for him besides the on-field offseason acquisitions is new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. If he can turn all those pieces into a form fitting puzzle, the 49ers have a great chance of being competitive in 2006.

6) Tiger Woods will with the Tiger Slam ... again. I know this has nothing to do with the NFL, but has anyone else been amazed by the focus Tiger Woods has shown since falling apart in the U.S. Open? It's as if he is defending his father's honor one tournament at a time. Case in point, on the 17th hole at the Buick Open, some idiot threw an apple on the green, Tiger didn't even flinch. He didn't move a muscle. He was so zoned in to that putt that a flasher could have ran across the green did jumping jacks and Woods would have stood there still looking at his rolling putt.

The man is on fire, and with the PGA championship coming up, I don't see what can stop him. He is dominating and leaving the field in its wake. It's simply astounding.

7) In the AFC, San Diego, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Miami will win their respected divisions. In the NFC, Seattle, Chicago, Carolina, and Philadelphia. When looking at this list, three teams jump out at me — San Diego, Philadelphia, and Miami. The others seem to be unanimous picks, so allow me to explain myself.

San Diego was one of the hardest divisions to pick. The Denver Broncos, last year's West winners, have a very difficult schedule that has them at St. Louis, New England, and Pittsburgh. Also, at home, they face Seattle, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Indianapolis.

San Diego, on the other hand, faces Cincinnati and Seattle on the road and Pittsburgh at home. They return one of the best running backs in the game, the best tight end in the game, and an improved defense.

The Chargers this year will live and die with Phillip Rivers — if he lives up to what everyone believes he is capable of doing, the Chargers win the West, plain and simple.

Miami in the East finished the year on a tear. They play just two cold-weather games the last half of the year, and have Daunte Culpepper behind center. That, with the tools that are already in place, and the Dolphins have a great chance to unseat the Patriots as East champions. Just as long as Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas restrain from having any divorce squabbles.

Finally, Philadelphia. I'll be honest, I do have some bias on this one because of my allegiance to the midnight green and silver. Allow me, however, to defend my point. First off, the Eagles went to three NFC championships without T.O. During that time, they had no discernable wide receiver anywhere near a number one ranking. Now without T.O. everyone believes that they will lack in the passing game. It's true that people have short memories.

Second, their defense got stronger this year with the signing of Darren Howard.

Third, everyone is healthy. McNabb and Brian Dawkins are the most important. There is something to worry about with Brian Westbrook's latest injury, a sprained foot, but that shouldn't sideline him for too long.

Finally, McNabb is the best quarterback in the East, there is no one who comes close to his skill level. New York's wonder-boy, Eli Manning, has yet to prove himself on the big stage, and it's unknown if he can. Washington has a quarterback past his prime, and Dallas...

Dallas poses the biggest threat. Great defense, great weapons on offense, except for Bledsoe, who has yet to prove what he's made of since becoming this generation's Wally Pipp. In fact, they are so deep and so good that it's hard to not see them winning the East except for Bledsoe. I'm just not sold on him.

8) The Patriots will not make the playoffs. A team that has always been unified has had some shaky beginnings in the preseason. They no longer have a cake walk in the East to provide them with 6 easy wins. With a tough schedule and a tougher AFC, the Pats will be odd man out when the playoffs shake down. AFC's wildcard race will conclude with Baltimore and Denver getting in. The main reason for New England's demise is the loss of two important pieces during the Pats dynasty, Adam Vinatieri and Willie McGinest. This is not the same Patriots team and that will be exposed early and often.

9) The Colts will not make the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning, in his 12 years as a collegiate and professional, has never won a big game. Until he does, he never will make the Super Bowl. Period.

10) Carolina will face Cincinnati in Super Bowl XLI. The reason Carolina lost in last year's championship game, they were worn out. Injuries to their running backs and a one-man passing attack finally caught up to the Panthers in Seattle, to a fresher, better team. But, as the old adage goes, defense wins championships, and with the addition of Maake Kemoeatu to an already-stellar defense, the Panthers have, arguably, the best defense in the league. Add Keyshawn Johnson to assist Steve Smith, and DeAngelo Williams to the running game, it seems like all the pieces are set.

For Cincinnati, it depends on Carson Palmer. If he can get over Kimo von Oelhoffen's knee crushing blow, the improved offense and defense should lead Cincinnati to a Super Bowl Berth. If Palmer pulls a Peyton, look for the Snake to shock everyone and lead the Broncos' stampede.

As for the winner ... stay tuned.

Posted by Wailele Sallas at 5:30 PM | Comments (21)

Are Ya Tough Enough? (Part 1)

One of the great things about college football is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Every season is volatile with respect to the amount of personnel change on the field. But no number of blue-chip recruits or early departures can shift fan enthusiasm or the mystique of a legendary stadium.

Whether it's talent, history, or both, some programs schedule multiple contests against their favor each year. Some can't help it because of conference alliances. We'll deal with them later. For the other contests that are a little more controlled, here are 10 teams that hit the ground running ... into a brick wall.

10) Middle Tennessee State

The Blue Raiders might be from a small-time conference, but they prevented a big-time moment last year when upsetting Vanderbilt at home. That loss most likely kept the Commodores out of their first bowl game in over two decades. If MTSU wants to achieve a similar stunner, they will probably have to do it away from Murfreesboro.

After an opening week Sun Belt tussle, the Blue Raiders will head to College Park and face a retooling Maryland squad. From there, other non-conference tilts will be sprinkled throughout the season. Those include trips to Oklahoma and South Carolina, along with a chance to defend their home turf against Louisville.

9) Southern Miss

Over the last decade, the Golden Eagles have been one of the better-known names in the mid-major ranks. They've also visited some of the most intimidating venues in the sport. This year, I introduce Hattiesburg supporters to a couple of the most hospitable environments around this great nation, Gainsville and Blacksburg. Adding in a home date against NC State, three 2005 bowl winners grace the non-conference schedule.

8) Oregon

The only big-name school of this bunch. You could include USC and Colorado in the discussion of stout early season slates, but the Trojans have Nebraska and Notre Dame at home, while the Buffs have one road game and one pretty-close-to-home roadie.

The Ducks will actually reward Fresno State for the Bulldogs' "go anywhere" strategy, giving Central Cali fans a Pac-10 foe to root against. The other toughie is a rematch of the Holiday Bowl, as Oklahoma comes west to Eugene. There is already a letdown effect with the absence of former Sooner QB Rhett Bomar, but this meeting should still be a dandy.

7) Marshall

The Thundering Herd get this spot more on reputation than anything. Usually Kansas State and Tennessee are two of the most intimidating places to play. However, the two programs struggled in 2005, with both ending up at 5-6. A new coach in Manhattan could keep the Wildcats down in their state of transition. Neyland Stadium, though, should be rocking again this year.

The other non-conference game for Marshall won't go under the radar. And trust me, it would mean the world to the Herd if they could beat title-contending and in-state rival West Virginia in game one of the season.

6) Fresno State

Pat Hill has always stated that his team will play anybody, anywhere, anytime. Now, as I said earlier, he gets a little bit of reward by hosting Oregon in week two of the season. But don't think that will stop the old ballcoach from sticking to his principles. In mid-October, the Bulldogs will show up in the Bayou to battle a stocked LSU team.

The other two contests on the non-conference slate feature known names in down situations. Washington is still rebuilding under Tyrone Willingham, and Colorado State isn't the same hot ticket it was back in the '90s. It isn't Fresno's fault that these two perennial powers have fallen on hard times. Still, name-wise, this grouping is a pretty one.

5) Florida International

The Golden Panthers are only in their second year of Division I-A play (and fifth overall as a program), and as with any newcomer, they need to take their lumps. This group of games seems to do the trick. A three-game stretch toward the beginning of the year is a little tamer as visits to South Florida and Maryland, along with a home tilt against Bowling Green, give FIU some needed competition.

Getting trounced will come later in the season, but then again, that usually happens to most teams when they head to cross-town Miami and Tuscaloosa back-to-back. The good news ... they do get a week of rest between whuppins.

4) East Carolina

On this list, most teams get rewarded for showing up against one or two big-time names. However, something must be said for a school that must face a group of solid squads. That's what the Pirates have in front of them entering late 2006. All four of their opponents not only went to bowl games last winter, but won them.

ECU's non-conference (and full) season starts off at Navy (Poinsettia), continues with consecutive home games against West Virginia (Sugar) and Virginia (Music City), and concludes down the road at NC State (Meineke). Again, this pick is more vegetables (substance) than candy (flash).

3) Troy

It seems like head coach Larry Blakeney should carry around a cardboard sign saying "Have talent, will travel" or "Will roadtrip for games." In 2003, the Trojans played eight out of 12 contests on the road (of course, being a I-A independent helps). This year, the schedule was kind enough to keep a road-home ratio of 7-to-5. Unfortunately, after a home date with Alabama State, Troy will hit the road for four in a row.

Oh, and by the way, those four games will be at Florida State, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, and UAB. The destinations will provide for plenty of sightseeing, but not too much in the way of success on the field.

2) Rice

When you browse at the schedule, there may be some questions with Army standing out from everybody else. Throw the Cadets out. The Owls' non-conference slate is stacked with big names and talent on the other side of the ball. Start of the three-contest run with a trip out to SoCal to tussle with UCLA. The last game of the stretch features a tour of Tallahassee, where Florida State awaits.

Oh yeah, did I forget to mention a home date with defending national champ Texas is sandwiched in-between. Must have slipped my mind.

1) Buffalo

This was pretty much a coin flip between spots one and two. Anytime three tough games include a strong defending champ, it's hard to top. Luckily for the Bulls, they have the slate to do it. Just like Rice, Buffalo features a throw-out game in the form of winless-for-'05 Temple.

Dotted throughout the rest of '06 are a few trips to some fantastic college environments. September leaves the Bulls on the Plains of Auburn, followed by an October vacation to Boston College's Chestnut Hill, and then an outdoor escapade at Wisconsin's Camp Randall in the heart of November. One thing you can say for these MAC reps ... they sure can plan a getaway.

The preceding teams get to suffer in the short-term, but who has the toughest overall road? I'll answer that in part two. No, really. I'll look into my crystal ball and everything.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:55 PM | Comments (0)

Mets Stuck in the Middle

Top setup man Duaner Sanchez, who was having a career year, was involved in an automobile accident in Florida as a passenger in a taxi cab. He injured his right shoulder, which required season-ending surgery. Mets GM Omar Minaya had to quickly turn his attention to the bullpen with the deadline approaching approximately in 12 hours.

He was able to obtain the team's best setup man from last season, the ageless Roberto Hernandez (and struggling starter Oliver Perez), from the Pittsburgh Pirates for rightfielder Xavier Nady. In fairness to Minaya, the other GM's involved in the possible deals for a starter were the ones to have cold feet.

A mentioned three-way trade between the Mets, Houston Astros, and Baltimore Orioles had Lastings Milledge going to the O's, shortstop Miguel Tejada landing in Houston, and Roy Oswalt joining the Mets' rotation. The word was that either the 'Stros or Orioles pulled out, killing the entire deal.

The Mets were also trying to obtain Jason Schmidt from San Francisco without having to give up Milledge or Aaron Heilman, who were both mentioned in the Barry Zito from Oakland A's possible deal.

Regardless, the Mets are going to ride it out with what they have. Will their bullpen hold up, especially when you have to consider the shaky starting rotation? Pedro Martinez has been himself when healthy. Tom Glavine is 40 and has had moments when he has shown his age. Who is the number three if the playoffs started today? Orlando Hernandez has pitched better of late and October is when "El Duque" has shined. Steve Traschel does not breed confidence, and John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and the rehabbing Brian Bannister are all rookies.

A key component to the Mets' run is going to be Heilman. If he can be as effective as last season, the pen may be in good shape. Righthander Chad Bradford and lefthander Pedro Feliciano have looked good all year and with Hernandez and Heilman, the loss of Sanchez may not be a season killer after all.

The game of baseball has become so specialized over the years that middle relief has become almost as important as having a strong rotation and closer. The Yankee teams of the late-1970s had Ron Davis setting up Rich "Goose" Gossage. And Tony LaRussa became the first manager to slow games to a crawl in the late innings with frequent pitching changes. Lefty-lefty and righty-righty matchups became normal, with games today lasting three hours.

Setup men have become part of the fabric of a team. There is even the unofficial "hold" stat for comparisons. If a middle reliever comes in with a lead and hands it over to the closer, he has "held" the game for a possible win.

Will the Mets have enough in the bullpen to get the ball to Billy Wagner? It may be debatable, but with the large lead they have in the division, they have the luxury of finding out during the time when other clubs are fighting for a playoff berth.

Posted by Joe Pietaro at 4:29 PM | Comments (0)

August 14, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Detroit Lions

Last Year

Watching the Detroit Lions 2005-06 season was like watching a car accident. With Joey Harrington behind the steering wheel, the Lions once again lacked leadership and eventually crashed. The offense had a carload of underachievers from the trio of first-round wide receivers to second-year back Kevin Jones and subsequently let down a decent defense. The lackadaisical days of Steve Mariucci are over and in steps a demanding regime who is going to whip this talented team into shape.

What We Learned From Last Year

After a decisive 17-3 victory over the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, it looked like the Lions, a team who had only won 16 games in the last four seasons, had finally turned the losing corner.

The evidence in following weeks supported that fact — somewhat — but the confidence-building wins just didn't fall for them.

After getting knocked around like Brett Myers' wife — allegedly — in Week 2 at the hands of the Chicago Bears, the Lions remained surprisingly competitive in the following weeks.

They lost 17-13 in a controversial game in Tampa Bay when the refs reversed a Lions' touchdown with seconds remaining, dropped another road game two weeks later in Carolina after Chris Weinke tossed a 21-yard, last-second touchdown and re-asserted themselves against the Chicago Bears before losing in overtime.

Had one of those games fallen for them, the Lions would have entailed a winning record after eight weeks and would have been tops in the NFC North, which was obviously weak at that point.

The burden was on quarterback Joey Harrington to finally develop into a consistent franchise starter, but his inconsistency did not dissipate and he continued to be a poor leader.

Sometimes an offense takes on the characteristics of the quarterback and the Lions' attack was as hot and cold as Harrington. Some days, Harrington would complete nearly 68% of his passes along with three touchdowns, and other days, he would connect on just of 51% with five interceptions. Backup Jeff Garcia just extended the spotty play.

While the quarterbacking was shoddy, there is plenty of criticism to go around.

The front five protectors were faulty all across the board. Second-year right tackle Kelly Butler was too green for a starter's role, guards Rick DeMulling and Kyle Kosier were nothing special on the left side, and center Damien Woody battled injuries.

The much publicized trio of first-round wideouts also disappointed — again — as Charles Rogers was suspended four games for drug violations, Mike Williams was fined over $400,000 for being overweight and arriving late to meetings, and Roy Williams sustained his reputation as a softy, sitting out five games with a quadriceps injury.

While the Lions offense dropped the ball, it was the defense that shouldered the load.

Even without cornerback Fernando Bryant, who spent the season on injured reserve with a dislocated clavicle, the Lions still tallied 19 interceptions, eighth best in the NFL. Dre Bly led the team with six picks in 12 games and spent a lot of time on the opposing team's top wideout. Prize free agent strong safety Kennoy Kennedy flourished in his first season in Detroit, leading the team with 98 tackles.

The linebacking corps endured a few injuries which toyed with its consistency. Boss Bailey, the team's best linebacker in pass coverage, only lasted 11 games and sophomore Teddy Lehman's season was shortened to five games.

The front four is where the strength of the defense lied and boasted the team's only Pro Bowler, Shaun Rogers. He is not only the Lions' best defensive tackle, but quite arguably the best in the league. With "Big Daddy" Dan Wilkinson beside him, the Lions had the necessary bulk up front. Ends Kalimba Edwards and James Hall started to blossom, totaling 12.5 together, but the Lions still didn't generate many sacks, finishing with only 31.

Heading forward, the Lions are installing an intricate offense under Mike Martz and a new defense under Donnie Henderson, but they may not have the proper players to fit the new schemes. Although they have a lot of talented athletes, new head coach Rod Marinelli's first season will be about determining who fits the puzzle and which pieces just don't match.

This Year

Sometimes, a fresh head coach wants to fill out his coaching staff with his own guys, but the new trend seems to be entrusting experienced — or recently fired — coaches to man positions.

Rod Marinelli really pushed to get Mike Martz onboard and as maligned as he was as a head coach — especially by me — Martz is one creative offensive mind.

The main question right now is: does Martz have the right parts to work with?

While he unearthed diamonds in Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, at first glance, it appears he's working with Zirconium right now.

Jon Kitna has already been named the starter, but he has a long history of throwing ill-timed interceptions. Josh McCown is right behind him and has been lauded for his potential, but has a similar reputation.

The second best coaching hire by Marinelli was offensive line coach Larry Beightol, who is a quality line coach. He should be able to motivate this unit to perform cohesively.

The Lions inked left tackle Jeff Backus to a long-term contract and with Dominic Raiola and a healthy Damian Woody returning, three starters are in place. Ross Verba, who took a season off, is slotted to start at left guard and Rex Tucker, who played under Martz last year in St. Louis, is the starting right tackle. The line should at the very least be much improved in opening up running lanes, but it is still uncertain how they will respond if they are asked to pass protect a great deal.

Martz has a penchant of giving his running backs sparse carries, which might not bode well for Kevin Jones. He has worked hard in the offseason to shake his sophomore slump and has put extra focus on block and pass catching, receiving 100 passes a day for a period of time. With rookie Brian Calhoun on the roster, the Lions are hoping they won't see such a drop-off when Jones is spelled for a play or two.

As the offense is completely made over, it's unclear what role Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Charles Rogers will have going forward. Martz is big on speedy and polished route-runners, which doesn't exactly fit the Williams' description.

Rogers has lost some weight and regained his speed, but he originally gained the weight under the advice of the previous coaching staff because his body was so fragile. Corey Bradford is probably the most reliable receiver on-board, which is more of an insult to the former first-round picks than it is a complement to Bradford.

On defense, the Lions will employ an aggressive style under Henderson, which should allow them to increase their measly sack total of last season.

Upfront, they return virtually the same unit, without 12-year veteran Dan Wilkinson, who didn't feel like going through the rigors of another training camp. Shaun Cody should be ready to step in.

On the ends, there is a solid rotation that includes James Hall, Kalimba Edwards, and Corey Redding. Hall and Edwards are the pass-rushers, while Redding, who has been a standout in training camp, is stouter against the run.

The secondary will be enhanced by the return of Fernando Bryant, but Henderson plans on implementing a lot of zone coverage. Both starting corners are better in man-to-man so this is another area of uncertainty.

While Kennoy Kennedy has the strong safety position locked up, the free spot is open for competition. Terrence Holt, last year's starter, is the front runner, but he has not been reliable enough to start. This opening is basically just waiting for second-round pick Daniel Bullocks to develop and step into it.

With no top flight wideouts at the top of the draft, the Lions drafted linebacker Ernie Sims with the eighth selection overall.

Sims has a history of concussions, although he claims they are minor, and is a gifted playmaker. If Teddy Lehman can comeback healthy and Boss Bailey can hold out for a full season, this unit could be the start of something special for years to come at the second level. That's too many “ifs” to expect steady production, however.

Expectations are lofty with Martz guiding the offense, but there is a lot of terminology to swallow for a team who's coming off a lackadaisical coach. Timing and perfection are critical components of his offense and without the right type of players, it is unlikely Ford Field will house the greatest show on FieldTurf this year.

This team will not underachieve under Marinelli, like they did under Mariucci, but this year will be about learning and growing pains.

Over/Under: 6.5

Seven wins would be a successful season and not only would it be their highest win total since 2000, it would save general manager Matt Millen from a pink slip. The players have a ton of adjustments to make to Martz and the coaches have to sift through the roster to see who is viable for the future. They play: SEA, @CHI, GB, @STL, @MIN, BUF, @NYJ, ATL, SF, @ARZ, MIA, @NE, MIN, @GB, CHI, and @DAL.

Fantasy Sleeper

With so much uncertainty among the wide receivers and the quarterbacks, Kevin Jones looks like the best fantasy value here. The extra time he's put in catching balls in the offseason should help him thrive in Martz' system and although Steven Jackson suffered in the pass-heavy offense, Jones is simply better than the 664 yards he rushed for last season. Keep in mind that Martz is not the top dog on the coaching staff and if Marinelli sees too much passing and not enough running, he will let him know.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 4:56 PM | Comments (0)

Top 10 Men's Tennis Matches of 21st Century

The hibernation period that began with the end of Wimbledon is finally over with the Toronto Masters Series tournament. As usual, we had the "forgotten" series of clay-court tournaments that take place for a few weeks in Europe.

All the clay-court specialists (minus Rafael Nadal), who were in hibernation themselves during the grass court season, reappeared to rack up a few more points before they accept their fates of not winning many matches the rest of the year since there are no more clay-court tournaments on the calendar. Oh, wait! There is actually one: that sensational (!!) Palermo tournament in September (Igor Andreev and Filippo Volandri played in the finals last year, wow)!

It's also true that the U.S. Open Series has already started. But let's be honest! From the end of Wimbledon to the beginning of Toronto Masters Series tournament this week, there is simply not much to get excited about in the world of tennis.

I figured I could pick a fun subject, not necessarily related to current events. No, it's not about tennis-related vacation ideas, nor reviews of tennis books. You will have to read some past articles for those.

I figured it would be fun to try to pick the top 10 men's tennis matches of the 21st century so far. Of course, these are my picks and very much open to debate. I have not watched every single tournament in the calendar since the beginning of 2000. But due to my addiction to the game of tennis and my obsession with following tournaments on TV or live, I have probably watched a whole lot more than most people out there.

It was impossible to number them one through 10, so I decided to group them into two groups of five matches. The matches are listed in any order within their group. Perhaps I will come back to this list in the future as the years go by and modify the list, adding new matches, taking some off. Hopefully, your inputs will have a lot to do with future modifications.

Following my picks, I noticed some interesting anecdotes. Out of the 10 matches that I have picked, the only regular ATP calendar tournament to make the list other than the Slams was Rome ATP Masters Series tournament (I don't count Masters Cup as a regular tournament). Also, nine out of 10 were five-set matches, eight of them going to an extended fifth set. Only three players who never won a Slam title made the list.

Only one win by Roger Federer made the list, the best player of the century so far. Furthermore, that win came when he was not even top 10 in the world. Andre Agassi and Federer top the list with three matches each. Wimbledon leads the list with three matches taking place on Centre Court. The year 2001 leads the way with four matches. Here is my list:

Top Five Matches (In Any Order)

2003 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Andy Roddick def. Younous El Aynaoui 4-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 21-19

Some may claim that this match lasted all day. Both players were diving simultaneously at one point for balls. Roddick sure felt like it lasted all day, never recovering physically from this match and wilting away in the semis against Rainer Schuettler.

2006 Rome Finals: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer
6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6

This rivalry could turn out to be the best rivalry in the history of tennis, and it is likely that this match will be the best of it. The tide turned several times during this match, both players had match points. Fans thought it was over for Nadal, then for Federer, then for Nadal again, before it was really over for Federer. Roger went for winners for five-plus hours against arguably the best clay-court player of all times, and almost pulled it off!

2001 U.S. Open Quarterfinal: Pete Sampras def. Andre Agassi
6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6

Best match of this wonderful rivalry. Three hours of mesmerizing tennis, no breaks, four tiebreakers, the winner was anyone who witnessed it.

2001 Wimbledon Semifinal: Patrick Rafter def. Andre Agassi
2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 8-6

Right when you thought these two guys could not top the 2000 semifinal on the same court, they did. Never since Bjorn Borg vs. John McEnroe has anyone seen a classic "serve and volleyer vs. returner" match of this quality.

2005 Australian Open Semifinal: Marat Safin def. Roger Federer
7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7, 9-7

Matches like this will leave you wondering why Safin is not right up there with Federer and Nadal. At his best, Safin is the only current player who could bother the comfort of those two at the top spots. Don't take my word for it, watch this match. Yes, Federer can be beaten at his best.

Next Five Matches (In Any Order)

2001 Wimbledon 4th Round: Roger Federer def. Pete Sampras
7-6, 5-7, 6-4, 6-7, 7-5

Although Pete was not at the top of his game in 2001, this match will remain as an important turning point in the history of tennis. The new king of grass takes over from the reigning king of grass in this match that went the distance and had some brilliant shotmaking. Interestingly, it was to be the only encounter between two players who will now be in a never-ending battle for "the best player ever" title in the game of tennis.

2001 Wimbledon Final: Goran Ivanisevic def. Patrick Rafter
6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 9-7

If this was a list of "matches played in the most exciting atmosphere," this would be at the top of the list without a doubt. The match was moved to Monday due to rain. This meant that regular ticket holders did not get to keep their seats and bring their "proper and stiff" clapping. All of a sudden, a gigantic queue formed at SW19 with tennis lovers who previously never dreamed of getting a ticket to the finals. Croatians and Australians filled the seats on Monday, bringing along their flags, chanting and enthusiasm. It was more electrifying than a Davis Cup match. Goran did the unthinkable, winning Wimbledon as a wildcard entry.

2005 Rome Finals: Rafael Nadal def. Guillermo Coria
6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6

Although in retrospect the Safin vs. Federer match was more spectacular, I picked this one as the best match of the year at the end of 2005. Nadal and Coria played a classic clay-court match. Nadal slugged, Coria slugged (and whined), both had multiple match points, the final tiebreaker had an extended ending. Oh, and the match lasted five hours and 13 minutes.

2005 U.S. Open Quarterfinal: Andre Agassi def. James Blake
3-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6

I always wondered if this match had the record for the most winners made during a match by both players combined. If you are an American, this match made you proud. Two great athletes (one at 35 years of age, mind you) upped the level of play with each passing set, while displaying fantastic sportsmanship. By the fifth set, both were going for winners, and making them. Agassi ended up making one more than Blake on match point to win it in a thrilling tiebreaker.

2002 Masters Cup Final: Lleyton Hewitt def. Juan Carlos Ferrero
7-5, 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 6-4

Every now and then, you will have two baseliners at the top of their game, playing a baseline dual on a fast hard court. This was one of those matches. Ferrero came back from the dead only to blow one break advantage in the deciding set. Both players now wish they could play at the level of this match.

The WTA version will be coming in the near future. Until then, take care, everyone.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 4:33 PM | Comments (7)

August 12, 2006

East Coast Bias

Andre Dawson played 21 major league seasons, swatting 438 home runs (many of them at the cusp of The Steroid Era), knocking in 1,509 runs with a .279 batting average. He was an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, an eight-time all-star outfielder and the kind of five-tool player (at least early in his career) that comes around once in a generation.

His name came up this week on a random sports talk radio show that my Sirius dial happened to land on, during a conversation about the Baseball Hall of Fame. The consensus, between hosts and caller, was that Dawson was worthy of consideration, but probably will never be enshrined.

"If only he had played in New York," they lamented, and I paraphrase.

East Coast Bias kills another supposed immortal.

ECB is an accepted condition in the sports world, like the annual injustice of the Bowl Championship Series and the curse of the Sports Illustrated cover/EA Sports cover/trading a fat drunk to the Yankees in order to fund your wife's Broadway musical. Like most myths, there is evidence that can debunk ECB, but sports fans will never let facts stand in the way of a good stereotype — like, for example, how ESPN's Dan Patrick this week referred to "how people view black quarterbacks" in the NFL and how Warren Moon bucked that trend ... a trend that didn't exist when Moon evidently began bucking it.

ESPN, as you know, is the worldwide leader in ECB. Californians complain. The Midwest complains. Don't these people know how difficult it is to present a complete picture of the American sports landscape and be the Iraqi Information Minister for the Boston Red Sox? ("Faltering forces of Bronx infidels cannot just enter a Fenway Park filled with thousands of fans and lay besiege to them! We have retaken the airport! There are no Yankees there!")

But Bostonian sports obsession is a symptom of ECB, just like those college polls that consistently weigh the accomplishments of Florida teams in football and ACC/Big East teams in basketball heavier than those out West. None of these symptoms speak to the cause, the epicenter of ECB, which is and always will be New York City.

What, do you honestly believe Boston's recent sports legends didn't need the Big Apple to achieve mythic status? That the Knicks/Celtics wars didn't have anything do with turning Boston basketball into Larry's Legend? That if the Red Sox's foil had been Toronto instead of the Yankees we'd continue to be deluged by Boston baseball stories, sights, and sounds? Can you imagine how much more celebrated the Patriots would be had they defeated the Giants in any of their Super Bowl wins?

ECB exists in some forms, no question about that. Look at Joe Namath, a quarterback whose off-field hype was amplified by the New York media far beyond his actual impact on the game. Look at Dwight Gooden, who generously had four great seasons, but in reality, wasn't much better than Bob Welch statically in the end. Harry Carson is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame because of the jersey he wore and not because of anything he did while wearing it. Gary Carter is in the Baseball Hall of Fame because of one season: 1986. And don't get me started on Patrick Ewing.

But as Robert DeNiro said to Al Pacino in "Heat," "There's a flipside to that coin." There is another kind of East Coast Bias — bias against East Coast players, and the pressures they overcome to succeed where others have failed.

I was reminded of this as Mike Piazza made his return to New York as a member of the San Diego Padres this week. He was warmly received by the same fans that were, at many times, cold to him during his seven-and-a-half-year tenure as a Mets catcher — because he never won a World Series for the franchise and, in fact, lost to the Yankees in his only trip to the championship round. Here's a player who had 655 RBI, 1,028 hits, 220 home runs in 972 games for the Mets and it wasn't good enough for some fans. Here's a player who competed through daily criticisms of his defense, demeanor, and leadership skills in the media, which also relished splashing stories about his sex life (and sexual preference) on the front pages of their tabloid newspapers.

That Piazza has had the Hall of Fame career he's had, playing for just over six seasons in Los Angeles and over seven in New York, is nothing short of extraordinary — imagine the numbers he could have put up had he remained in the cozy, unassuming confines of Miami instead of under those microscopes. But you'll never hear that mentioned as a factor in his immortality, because ECB doesn't swing that way — ECB props average players up, but never keeps star players down, evidently. Derek Jeter is going to have borderline Hall of Fame numbers by the end of his career, but there are more fans that see a good player elevated to greatness by a biased East Coast media than a great player who has endured under the most blinding spotlight in sports.

I think surviving in the most intense media market in the nation — and in front of the most demanding fans outside of the maniacs in Philadelphia — should be included as a measure of greatness for those players who thrived in the Big Apple, just like it should be a knock on any player who excelled outside of major market media scrutiny. I loved Dale Murphy as a player, but there was zippy/zilch/zero chance that the guy has a fraction of the success he had in sleepy Atlanta if he was the centerfielder for the New York Mets. He would have crumbled in that kind of spotlight, just like countless others have upon their arrival on the New York sports scene: Kenny Rogers, Ed Whitson, Danny Tartabull, Brett Saberhagen, Charles Smith, Pavel Bure, and countless others.

We're seeing another test of a great player in Pizza's replacement, Paul Lo Duca. Here's a guy who's been able to come in for the best hitting catcher of all-time and lead the Mets in batting average. Now, he's front-page news in New York, with a messy divorce and slander about massive gambling debts making headlines. All Lo Duca will have to do for the rest of the season is balance being the Gotham's newest tabloid target with trying to lead the Mets to their first world championship in 20 years.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, Joe Mauer's biggest concern is what kind of gum to chew during the game.

Look, there's no question that ECB influences everything from Hall of Fame voting (Phil Rizzuto!?!) to sports television scheduling (Boston, Philadelphia, and the Rangers will appear on OLN a combined 22 times next season; Stanley Cup champion Carolina will appear four times).

But to ignore how much East Coast athletes must overcome in order to excel in the games they play is just as biased as the annual diagnosis of ECB by the rest of the nation's sports fans.

(One last note: if Andre Dawson makes the Hall of Fame, so does Jim Rice. And that would just lead to more crying about ECB, wouldn't it?)

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:23 PM | Comments (0)

August 11, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Denver Broncos

Last Year

The Denver Broncos have tied or increased their win total in each of the last four seasons, but following a 13-win campaign, a disheartening playoff home loss has left them with a sour aftertaste. As the Patriots, Steelers, and Colts have all taken a step back in the offseason, the Broncos return virtually the same team and will once again have an opportunity to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

What We Learned From Last Year

As poorly as the Broncos performed in the final game of their season, a 34-17 route on their own turf, their 2005-06 season was a very successful one on many levels.

For starters, Jake Plummer output his most efficient season as a pro quarterback. Prior to last year, his best touchdown/interception ratio was a +8, in 2003, but he bested that total with 18 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. Plummer had the fewest interceptions among full-time starters and the second-closest quarterback was Matt Hasselbeck with 9.

Plummer didn't exactly have the support of a clear-cut running back such as Clinton Portis or Reuben Droughns. Mike Shanahan, who at one point detested the "running back by committee" approach, suddenly fell in love the tactic last season.

Plan A was to have Tatum Bell emerge into the typical all-around back that we have seen the Broncos pump out from season to season, but he proved to be too soft. Bell had just a 2.8 yards-per-carry average in the red zone and his biggest flaw was that he grew less effective the more he carried the ball.

In carries one through 10, Bell averaged 6.2 yards per carry on 128 attempts and totaled 6 touchdowns. In attempts 11 through 20, Bell averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 45 attempts with only 2 touchdowns.

Shanahan's philosophy tends to emphasize pounding the ball, especially as the game progresses, and Bell was just not up to the task. Enter Mike Anderson.

Anderson, who posted a 1,000-yard season in Denver in 2000, was essentially the exact opposite of Bell and provided the lacking toughness and consistency. He doesn't dance in the backfield and he doesn't really make people miss — all he does is pickup yards.

Between the two backs, Denver totaled 1,935 yards and 20 touchdowns.

While the Broncos were consistently a threat running the ball on the ground, they were not as dangerous through the air.

The wide receiving corps performed virtually exactly the same as the previous year: Rod Smith seemed ageless, Ashley Lelie wanted nothing to do with picking up tough yards, and Darius Watts dropped a lot balls.

After the Indianapolis Colts prolific passing game shredded the Broncos' secondary in back-to-back seasons during the playoffs, the defense entered the season with questions at cornerback.

Champ Bailey was a given, but rookies Darrent Williams and Dominique Foxworth both exceeded expectations — especially since Shanahan drafted them.

Shanahan, of course, has had little luck finding serviceable cornerbacks, but finally struck gold with these two. Both were pretty good in coverage, while Williams also provided a spark on several occasions as a returner on special teams.

The defense line was completely retooled as a number of former Cleveland Browns linemen took over jobs. Gerard Warren finally played like a first-round pick and logged the most snaps among Broncos defensive linemen. Along with Michael Myers, he was a major factor in the Broncos' run defense, finishing second overall. Even Courtney Brown, tabbed a bust, flashed some potential and although injuries limited him, he should be stronger in the coming season.

While the Broncos were stout against the run, they were unable to manufacture enough pressure on the quarterback to slow down the passing attack of quality opponents.

When the Pittsburgh Steelers came to town on January 22nd, not only did they watch a lot of previous Colts/Broncos game film, they noted that Denver only totaled 28 sacks in the regular season.

The Steelers were a team who passed the football only 41% of the time, but out of the first 30 plays they ran in the AFC Championship Game, 19 of them were passes.

At the NFL level, when a quarterback has enough time to check more than two receivers, eventually he will find someone open — no matter how good the cornerbacks are.

The Broncos have upgraded their passing game in the offseason and will be better suited to play catch-up football if necessary, but they have to find a way to drop the quarterback if they plan on making a long playoff run.

This Year

Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer should feel some pressure on his shoulders because he will likely be the first tree to fall should the Broncos' pass defense fail once again.

With a solid linebacking trio of D.J. Williams, Al Wilson, and Ian Gold and a reliable, but aging tandem of John Lynch and Nick Ferguson at safety, there is much praise to be handed out to this defense for its ability to be stingy against the run.

But how will the pass rush improve?

Defensive end Trevor Pryce, who tied for the team lead in sacks last year has departed, leaving the Broncos with more question marks. The new starting tandem of defensive ends Courtney Brown and John Engelberger were solid against the run last, but the Broncos would be lucky if these two could total 10 sacks together this season. Ebenezer Ekuban and Kenard Lang, another Cleveland Browns defensive lineman to defect to Denver, are also in the mix. The team is high on undersized rookie Elvis Dumervil, who led the NCAA in sacks in his senior season, and he will get on the field on passing downs. Scouts say he's not big enough and he's not fast enough, but all he does is get to the QB. Expect him to be effective.

While the front four does not appear any stronger than last season, the secondary is banking on the continued development of Williams and Foxworth. While the two will battle it out for the starting spot opposite Champ Bailey, the Broncos have the makings of a secondary that can play a lot more man-to-man coverage and therefore send more defenders to get to the quarterback.

On offense, the Broncos have added one key weapon that should also be of great help, should their secondary continue to get shredded in the playoffs.

To this point, the Broncos have had a run-first mentality on offense, but problems arise if they fall behind on the scoreboard early. When this happened in the past, the Broncos didn't have the weapons in the receiving corps to play catch up and their gameplan of ball possession flew out the window.

After skinning the Atlanta Falcons in a pre-draft trade, the Broncos produced an excellent draft by acquiring Jay Cutler, Javon Walker, and Tony Scheffler.

Cutler figures to be the quarterback of the future and enters an environment where he can quietly learn for at least a season. The other two players figure to make more of an immediate impact.

Walker, who has recovered from a serious ACL injury, instantly becomes the dynamic wideout that Denver had hoped Ashley Lelie would become. While Lelie failed to take any burden off of the shoulders of 11-year veteran Rod Smith, the Broncos are expecting Walker, who finished third in receiving in 2004, to do more than just that.

Tight end Tony Scheffler should also contribute right away and should be the best pass catcher and route-runner the Broncos have had at tight end in the past couple of years. While he isn't a two-way tight end just yet, the Broncos have a blocker at the position in Stephen Alexander.

If all goes well, Scheffler is going to demand attention in the middle of the field making it harder to double or “bracket” Walker and Smith.

These two additions, along with the alleged great strides that wide receiver Darius Watts has made in the offseason, will tempt the Broncos to pass the football more often, but they have to stick to their roots.

Throwing the ball around increases the chances of Jake Plummer turnovers and a large part of why he was so efficient last year was because Gary Kubiak didn't ask him to be much more than a manager. The Broncos have to continue emphasizing the play-action pass and pounding the ball on the ground to be successful.

The running game will likely feature a committee between Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, and Ron Dayne. Mike Bell is a rookie, but runs with the power and quickness that Shanahan loves. But he's still a rookie and that means he will be on a short leash. Tatum Bell has added quite a bit of muscle mass to toughen up and although everyone is waiting for him to take control of the carries, it might not happen this year — again.

The Broncos are still — quite easily — the class of this division, but to get by in the playoffs, they have to find a way to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They have more weapons in play on offense, but if last year's version of the Steelers can pass on them, then teams like the Patriots and Colts will pick them apart.

Over/Under: 10

With Hudson Houck, the heralded Chargers offensive line coach, departing for Miami last season, Chiefs tackle Willie Roaf's retirement this season, and the Raiders' front five in flux, the Broncos boast the most consistent offensive line in this division. The production of the Chiefs' defense and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers remain as wild cards, but it's unlikely any team in this division has enough to unseat the Broncos as reigning champs. They play: @STL, KC, @NE, BAL, OAK, @CLE, IND, @PIT, @OAK, SD, @KC, SEA, @SD, @ARZ, CIN, and SF.

Fantasy Sleeper

Everyone knows the fantasy value of a Broncos running back and even though Mike Shanahan displayed a façade that he was comfortable with the committee approach, he wants to give the bulk of the carries to one guy. Undrafted rookie Mike Bell has been the training camp stunner and is the surprise starter for the Broncos first preseason game. Unless Tatum Bell can disprove that he is one-dimensional runner who can't handle more than 10 carries a game, Mike Bell will start since he can offer the complete package.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 6:01 PM | Comments (0)

Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years (Pt. 3)

Continued from part one and part two.

There comes a time in every man's life when he must decide whether his philosophy entails strong front-line pitching and manufactured runs, or power-hitting and more power-hitting.

So in continuing this third installment of the "Universe Draft," keep that in mind. A man must decide whether a position player or a pitcher has more impact on games and build his team around that philosophy.

First, let me point out that I made a Nostradamic prediction by having the Cubs draft Francisco Liriano. I always said Liriano had mechanical problems and it must have caused some kind of elbow injury his last start. But nevertheless, the Cubs took on another pitcher with an injury-plagued future, just like they took on Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

Oh, and for your Felix Hernandez doubters out there — opponents are hitting .196 against him in August, and they only hit .219 against him in July. Oh, and he's only 20.

I'll refresh your memory on the first 10 picks before we get started:

1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
6. Athletics — Joe Mauer
7. Braves — Justin Verlander
8. Tigers — David Wright
9. Cardinals — Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox — Johan Santana

The next five picks will be:

11. Mets
12. Indians
13. Twins
14. Blue Jays
15. Angels

All right, let's get started. Remember what we're drafting for: players they feel will give them the best chance of winning a few seven game-series in five years.

***

11. Mets

The impact a good lead-off man can have on a ball club is often underestimated. Though the times of Rickey Henderson and his 130-plus stolen bases are long gone, a lead-off man gets the most at-bats throughout the season and he has the potential to cause the most havoc on the base paths.

With that said, Jose Reyes has the potential to be a Henderson-like player. He has blistering speed and will develop into an excellent contact hitter. But at the same time, lead-off men can only do so much — they can get themselves into scoring position, but someone has got to knock in those runs. Another young player the Mets could look at here is Grady Sizemore, who has the tools of a lead-off man, but also has enough power to bat lower in the lineup.

The Mets take a glance at Carlos Zambrano, but remember he's a Cubs pitcher, which means he has the potential to suffer lingering injuries. In the end, this is an easy pick. Reyes is just too good to pass up, so they go with their homegrown boy.

The pick: Jose Reyes

12. Indians

This is oddly ironic. Reyes falls to his current team, the Mets, and Sizemore falls to his current team, the Indians. They call Sizemore a "five-tool player," which means he has the ability to effect the game in every facet of the game offensively and defensively. Passing on Sizemore for a top-of-the-line pitcher might make sense if there was a guaranteed ace in the crop of pitchers left, but Zambrano, Jered Weaver, Brandon Webb, and Dontrelle Willis all have some issue that may plague them in five years.

The pick: Grady Sizemore

13. Twins

The Twinkies are always great at finding talent where talent is not exactly present. And when the Mets took Reyes, the Twins' front office probably cringed because these guys love to take advantage of the artificial turf in the Metrodome. But then they took a few Tums and got over it because they remember that their building a new stadium in 2010, and it will have real grass — and I thought they couldn't grow real grass in Minnesota...

The Twins have always been good at finding hitters at a low price. David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, and Justin Morneau all come out of that mold. They know how much pitching can do for a team because the duo of Santana and Liriano has basically carried them through the second half of his season.

The top three pitchers left on the board here are Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis, and Jered Weaver. I've always had a problem with Zambrano's mechanics and I always predicted that he would be out of baseball by the age of 30. But he's been absolutely dominant this season, and he could just be one of those guys with rubber arms.

Willis is a volatile pitcher, which means you never know what you're going to get. But he's accomplished so much by this age that he may mature into a reliable front-line starter.

And Weaver is just young and inexperienced. If he had played this entire season and performed at the level he's at right now, then I'd take him much earlier. But after a long winning streak to start his career, he's beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The Twins pick here is Willis because the more you look at him, the more you realize that he's a freak of nature. His mechanics, though ugly, are pretty good. Plus, he's only 23 — the same age as Weaver, who doesn't even have 100 innings under his belt.

The pick: Dontrelle Willis

14. Blue Jays

This pick is easy for the Jays. Jered Weaver is 7-0 with an ERA under 2.00 this year, and he's got an older brother (Jeff) to help him through the tough times he might endure in the next few years. Zambrano is too much of a risk at this point because he's thrown so many pitches already that his arm seems to be on the brink of a huge injury.

The pick: Jered Weaver

15. Angels

There are three options here: take Zambrano, or take a position player who will be in their early 30s in five years. The Angels are smart and choose the latter. Zambrano keeps slipping.

Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher, and Adam Dunn are all 25 or older, which means they will be around 30 in five years — still in their prime, but possibly in a time when they will be more susceptible to injury. Swisher isn't worth the pick here because he doesn't hit for average and he doesn't have as much power as the other two.

Dunn has all the power in the world, but he doesn't quite get the bat on the ball enough. That leaves Howard, who surprisingly has a batting average near .300 and absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact. In only his second full year, Howard doesn't have as much wear and tear as Dunn, who doesn't exactly keep in shape.

The pick: Ryan Howard

***

The players left on the board all have some major issue that causes concern. Injury concerns or the concern for stunted development are the big factors in deciding where these guys go. But some players, like Weaver, are just too good to pass up despite having just 50 innings under his belt.

The next five picks will be as follows. And remember: teams are ordered in this draft by how they are doing as an organization.

16. Houston Astros — They make the postseason often, but they can never break through. The drop to 16 because they should have won a title by now with the talent they have, but they just seem to run into strange things ... like the Red Sox and fate.

17. Cincinnati Reds — The Reds have put together a good core of players, with Bronson Arroyo, Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, and Edwin Encarnacion. They've put themselves in a good position to win, but looking at their roster, they just haven't put together enough talented pitchers — even in the National League.

18. San Diego Padres — They get their due here because they do a nice job of picking up extra spare parts from other teams and developing them into solid starters for their own team. Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young are prime examples.

19. Arizona Diamondbacks —The D-Backs deserve a little lovin' for winning the title a few years back. But not too much, because they've let their roster just whittle away due to age and free agency, and now there's going to be a wait until their next generation of players really gets into the swing of things, led by stub shortstop Stephen Drew.

20. Seattle Mariners — They don't exactly spend their money wisely, but they end up finding gems from overseas and in their farm system. Ichiro and Kenji Johjima were great finds in Japan, and they found Felix Hernandez in Venezuela, as well. But otherwise, this team overspends on guys like Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, and Jarrod Washburn.

Stay tuned for the next five picks, and visit the archives for part one and part two.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 5:32 PM | Comments (0)

August 10, 2006

Confessions of a Football Glutton

I am 30-years-old. I'm not in the best of shape, but I try not to descend into an abject blubbery monolith. But I must admit, when it comes to the sports I love the most (namely, college football and college basketball) I love immersion. Overindulgence. Gluttony. That is, for football, I like to start watching the noon (Eastern Time) kickoffs and watching until the last whistle has blown on the last 10:30 PM West Coast game. The cracks where you tell me to get a life, they are fair.

I look forward to my Saturdays of indulgence. I subscribe to everything I need to have access to the most Division IA games humanly possible. (To do that, you need to subscribe to the DirecTV or Dish Network sports package, giving you access to about 30 regional sports networks, and you need ESPN Gameplan, and ESPN Full Court). I count down the days when the first full college football weekend is just two weeks away, for that's when the various TV guide websites will start giving full listings for the big day. The cracks where you tell me to get a life, I deserve.

Then I just devour those TV listings, practically memorizing them. I pick a "primary" game to watch for each time slot. (Akron and Ohio State always have dibs when available. Beyond that, I prefer David/Goliath matchups, the Midwestern conferences, and the West Coast conferences). I LOOOOVE flipping back and forth between half a dozen games or more. The cracks where you tell me to get a life, what can I tell you?

So now that you understand my mindset, check this out. Check out the hyperlinks for Week 1 anyway. How far beyond a simple TV listing can one go? This is just an incredible compilation. Breaking it down to local channels? Giving lists of affiliates? Web broadcasts? Explaining exactly how the networks' contracts with the conferences affect coverage and kickoff times? It's such an amazing resource that must have taken an exhaustive amount of research, and a fraternal love of college sport gluttony to put together.

The cracks where you tell me to get a life, I cannot argue. But if you feel me just a little bit, you have to appreciate this website, even if only
slightly.

So now that I don't have to wonder what games I'm going to be able to see until two weeks prior any longer, I can concentrate on which announcers I am going to listen to, and which ones I'm going to turn the volume down on. Actually, I don't mind most of the announcers working today, which I realize goes against the spirit of these types of columns. When you sign up to write a column, you agree to pen at least one cliche-ridden diatribe against announcers per year.

The only one that really makes me really grumble is Brent Musburger. Hype, hype, hype, hype, hype. When he says "folks," which he does a lot, my skin crawls. Surely, that's a drinking game somewhere: have a shot every time he says "folks!" Does he think that makes the announcer-viewer relationship more personalized or something? It doesn't to me. Naturally, he usually is ABC's Big 10 guy, so I get to listen to him tons. At least his sideline reporter this year will be Lisa Salters, so we no longer have to hear him say, "Let's send it down, folks, to ZhhhhACKAROOT!" (Jack Arute).

Then there's Mike Gottfried on ESPN. He looks to be in his 40s or 50s, but he has the speaking voice of a man 125. I keep expecting him to start acting as old as he sounds. "Jevan Sneed is a fine ... outfielder. He's black. Where's my juice? I think Texas ... (45 second pause) ... where's my juice? Errol Flynn, he could act." You know, like Lou Holtz already sounds.

Everyone else is at least decent. Traditionalists and jerks might have reservations about female announcers, but Pam Ward is articulate and
strikes the right balance between staid professionalism and energetic enthusiasm. I think she's ready for the networks or the one of the higher-profile ESPN crews, if any of those guys move on. That's more than I can say for Beth Mowins, who did WAC games for ESPNU last year and apparently went to the Suzyn Waldman school of Tuff Announcer Chix.

Mike Tirico, who would be perfect for the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars, will be moving to Monday Night Football, and I miss him from the college ranks.

Paul Maguire is joining ABC's No. 2 college football team. Ugh.

When it comes right down to it, though, as announcers become homogenized and not very unique or stylized (for good or ill), it comes down to the voice. I'm looking for iconic voices. Keith Jackson had an iconic voice. Pat Summerall and John Madden are both iconic voices. I mentioned Chris Cuthbert in my CFL column a couple weeks ago. He has an iconic voice. So does Vin Scully. Joe Buck will never, ever, ever, ever be an iconic voice, no matter how much FOX overvalues him.

The only guy working college football today that has that sort of pleasant signature voice I'm looking for does Pac-10 games for FOX Sports Net, and that's Barry Tompkins. Good, competent work and a great voice for announcing. He's definitely a workhorse for FSN, doing poker and boxing broadcasts, as well. Alas, he looks a bit long in the tooth already, so I'm not sure he will reach icon status.

So I throw it open to the commenters ... we already know who you don't like. Who do you like? Who do you want calling the games you watch?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:53 PM | Comments (0)

New Beginnings, Same Endings?

Every NFL season brings a new opportunity for teams to put together a winning team. In the parity-era of the NFL, finishing in the basement in your division last year and winning the Super Bowl the next is not out of the realm of possibility.

Part of this yearly renewal process involves players moving from one team to another.

NFL teams have become much better at managing the salary cap and as a result, the large number of big-name players who get released and become available for the picking doesn't happen as often as it once did.

However, that doesn't mean that players don't move teams any longer. What will happen now is the player will re-structure his contract in order to stay with his team or teams will let the player seek a trade.

While player-for-player trades don't occur very often, players-for-draft picks are now the norm.

This type of trade seems to benefit all parties. The team that was going to lose their player anyway because of the salary cap get at least something for him and the player can then investigate moving to a team of choice.

The team who trades the pick for the player then doesn't have to get into a money-bidding war with other teams. Often, the draft pick is a third round pick or so and may be a decent value based upon the success rate in the league of third round picks in general.

The NFL can seem like a cut-throat business. And that is probably because it is. A player like QB Steve McNair was the face of the Tennessee Titans franchise for years. He did everything that was asked of him: played hurt, made big plays in big games. And how was he thanked?

By being locked out of the Titans' training facility.

NFL contracts are really works of fiction at times. When the contract is signed, we are impressed with the big numbers. But a closer look shows that often these contracts include a final year where the player is scheduled to make a huge sum of money that the team never intends to pay.

When this big money year comes up, the team asks the player to re-structure, or they get rid of him.

McNair was in that position. The Titans couldn't afford millions of salary cap dollars going to a QB who was in his last years and had an injury history.

The Titans knew they didn't want to pay McNair, McNair didn't want to re-structure. But, if McNair was to become injured during the offseason, they would be on the hook for his huge salary. So they locked him out.

Of course, the grievance filed by the NFLPA found that the Titans had to let him workout at the training facility.

If McNair wanted to play, it was in his best interest to seek a trade and ensure he didn't get injured anyway, so the fact that the Titans never did let McNair workout wasn't the main issue. What it did do was accelerate the process to get McNair into a better situation with another team. McNair landed in Baltimore and it seems like a good fit for both parties.

McNair is closer to the end of his career than he is to the beginning, but the Ravens finally came to the conclusion that the Kyle Boller experience was a ride they needed to shut down.

Sure, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB, but Boller isn't Dilfer. And the famed Raven defense is not what it used to be.

McNair can help both sides of the ball in Nashville. With McNair behind center, opposing teams won't be able to stack the box and focus on RB Jamal Lewis. McNair will also reunite with WR Derrick Mason.

McNair will move the chains more often and rest the defense. This one looks like a win for Baltimore as long as McNair can stay healthy. Otherwise, the Ravens are going to be all too familiar with the same mediocre offense.

Another similar scenario played out in Indianapolis. RB Edgerrin James was looking for his big deal. QB Peyton Manning got his, WR Marvin Harrison got his. WR Reggie Wayne got his. James kept waiting, but it didn't happen.

The Colts have had a pretty good run with their version of The Triplets.

But, if there is to be a Super Bowl in the Colt trophy case, it will go to The Twins.

The Colts were pretty successful in locking up their offense, but the money had to run out sometime. And it ran out before James got his long-term big money deal.

It seems like a real risk in letting a back like James go, but the Colts also let a guy called Marshall Faulk a few years ago.

That move worked out really well for Faulk. The Colts haven't won their championship, but James was certainly a great replacement for Faulk.

Can lightning strike twice for the Colts? Can they replace Edgerrin James as easily? The Colts think so as they drafted Joseph Addai from LSU in the first round of the draft.

The next question is how well will James do in the desert? Normally, big-name players who move to Phoenix are winding down their careers and just looking to pad their statistics while playing for an organization looking to sell tickets (see Emmitt Smith).

But James has more than one or two years left in the tank. With QBs Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart and WR tandem of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals may actually be building.

Can James be the same dominant back playing for a team known for losing? Coach Dennis Green thinks so and the fans hope to finally see a consistent winner in the desert.

Some players can't come to terms with their team and move on because they don't have a contract.

Some players have a contract with their team, but the team wants to restructure and the player moves on because he can't come to terms on restructuring.

And some players have a perfectly good contract and gripe so much about it that they become a cancer on the team, insult the starting QB, refuse to talk to coaches, and ... okay, one guy did all that.

If you are even a casual football fan, you know the story of Terrell Owens.

Complain about your coach and QB in San Francisco. Complain about your coach and QB in Philadelphia. What is next in Dallas? It's hard to believe that it can't play out any other way.

The Owens honeymoon may last a year. Maybe Owens doesn't complain about head coach Bill Parcells this year.

Maybe he doesn't make noise about QB Drew Bledsoe holding onto the ball too long and getting sacked instead of throwing it to him this year.

But isn't it just a matter of time before this all blows up?

Every year, several people expect Parcells to retire (again). He has returned to coach the Cowboys the last couple of years, but that won't last.

Rumors are that Parcells didn't want Owens, owner Jerry Jones did. If that is the case, can this be The Tuna's last year in Big D?

And if it is, what coach can keep Owens focused on football instead of himself?

There seem to be more questions than answers in Dallas and that is what makes the preseason great.

While there were more than three players who changed teams for the upcoming season, these three are among the biggest stories. There are so many more questions than answers and no one knows what is going to happen between now and February.

But isn't it great to pretend you have the answers?

Posted by Jeff Moore at 7:32 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 21

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson overcame an early blown tire that dropped him to 39th before mounting a late charge that gave him his first win at Indy and fourth win this season. Johnson boosted his points lead to 107 over Matt Kenseth, who finished second.

"You know, I found out that kissing the bricks after an Indy win is overrated, and quite unsanitary," says Johnson. "Just think of all the guys that have won here. The list is endless, and all of their filthy lips have been on those bricks. Really, kissing the bricks gave me no feeling at all. I guess now I know what Kurt Busch's new bride feels like."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth remained solid with a second-place finish in the Brickyard 400, his fourth top-five finish in his last five starts at Indy. Kenseth now trails Johnson by 107 points heading into the Chase's final five races.

"And there's no point in me catching him," says Kenseth. "It's shaping up to be a two-man battle between Jimmie and myself. Sounds boring, doesn't it? There's no bad blood between us. That's why I'm using these final five races of the Chase to create some tension and angst among us. Tony Stewart has agreed to be my special consultant. I'm hoping to use his suggestions on how to piss other drivers off. If I can wreck Jimmie a couple of times before the final 10 races begin, this might be exciting after all."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished third after leading 18 laps at the Brickyard, and was followed in fourth by Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer. Harvick moves up one spot in the Nextel Cup points to fifth, and leads handily in the Busch points after a win in Saturday's Kroger 200 at O'Reilly Raceway Park.

"If only I would have won the Winn-Dixie 250 earlier this year in Daytona," says Harvick, "I would have completed the season sweep of grocery store-sponsored Busch races. But winning the Bashas' Supermarkets 300 and the Kroger 200 in the same year is quite a feat. Next year, I hope to win all three of those races, plus the Double Coupon 225 to make it a grocery store grand slam."

4. Jeff Burton — Burton started from the pole and dominated the first half of the race, leading 87 of the first 109 laps. Then, suddenly, the No. 31 Cingular Wireless Chevrolet lost handling and track position. Burton eventually finished 15th and held on to third in the points, 375 back of Johnson.

"I don't know what happened," Burton comments, "but we suddenly started losing track position faster than Mel Gibson losing credibility. Who knew that Mel's lethal weapon was his potty mouth?"

5. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin scored his ninth top-10 finish of the year with a tenth at Indy, which improved his position in the points one spot to seventh. Hamlin now sits 476 out of first.

"Hey, there's more to Joe Gibbs Racing than Tony Stewart," says Hamlin. "I'm a rookie, so I'm thankful Tony is my teammate. Otherwise, I would be one of those rookies that he says doesn't know their place on the track. Who's this Dale Earnhardt, Sr. character he keeps talking about?"

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon fell out of contention early when a broken sway bar and ensuing complications left him three laps down. Several timely cautions and good work by the No. 24 pit crew got Gordon back on the lead lap on lap 87, and he kept advancing to finish sixteenth.

"It's no fun sputtering around the track with a broken sway bar," says Gordon. "I was going awfully slow. I know what Michael Watrip must have felt like in qualifying."

7. Kyle Busch — Busch remained fourth in the Cup points standings with a seventh-place finish in the Brickyard 400. He remains fourth in the points, 391 out of first.

"I felt like I've matured a great deal this season," says Busch, enjoying a bowl of free Frosted Flakes, courtesy of his sponsor. "The 'mature' Kyle Busch avoids accidents like those at the end of Sunday's race. The 'old' Kyle Busch would have caused the wrecks and then rammed the drivers in the parking lot for good measure."

8. Tony Stewart — Last year's Brickyard champion has his troubles, including an extra pit stop to tighten loose lug nuts, but still finished eighth. Stewart moved up to ninth in the points race, and is 505 behind Johnson and seven ahead of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 10th.

"According to many analysts," says Stewart, "I'm a lock to make the Chase. According to Carl Edwards, I'm a moron. I've got news for you, Carl. I've been called worse, much worse ... by my relatives."

9. Mark Martin — Martin recorded his fourth top-five of the season with a fourth at the famed Brickyard. The AAA No. 6 Roush Fusion wasn't quite good enough to win, but it was good enough to hang among the leaders for most of the day. Martin maintains his position of sixth in the points, 412 out of first.

"Let me ask you this," Martin says. "Does Tour de France 'winner' Floyd Landis' urine have a higher octane count than the fuel we use in racing? I heard when he gives a urine sample, he has to use a titanium specimen cup."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt rebounded from consecutive last place finishes to finish sixth at Indy and re-enter the Cup points standings. Earnhardt is now 10th in the points, 37 ahead of Kasey Kahne in 11th.

"My luck is changing by the minute," says Earnhardt. "I'm in decent Chase contention, and I'll be appearing on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart. I wonder who will be more uncomfortable: Jon talking about NASCAR, or me talking about politics?"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:09 PM | Comments (2)

August 9, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Dallas Cowboys

Last Year

Forget Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde, Tony Romo, or Drew Henson — the 2005 Dallas Cowboys were Drew Bledsoe's. As they solidified a position that had ailed them in the 2000s, they found out that although Bledsoe can still make all the throws, he's only as successful as the offensive line in front of him. Now America's team has rounded out their roster and this veteran unit is ready to make a serious run to the Super Bowl.

What We Learned From Last Year

Drew Bledsoe has had an up and down career in the NFL, but he is far from an enigma. With him it's simple: protect him and you'll have a cherry; don't protect him and you'll have a lemon.

Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells, who previously coached Bledsoe in New England, was conscious of this, but was helpless as the team's offensive line started to limp midseason.

The big blow was dealt in Week 6 versus the New York Giants. Left tackle Flozell Adams, who protected Bledoe's blind side, tore his ACL and was lost for the season.

Prior to the injury, Bledsoe had enjoyed being upright for two of the first six games, in which he wasn't sacked at all. He was dropped an average of 2.2 times per game while Adams was around, but that total skyrocketed to 3.9 as he was sacked 39 times in the final 10 games.

Rookie Rob Petitti was much maligned for his performance and his play also declined when Adams succumbed to injury because the team was not able to help him out with extra blockers. Guard Marco Rivera, who was an excellent signing from Green Bay, played very well, but he too was hindered by a herniated disc.

The game versus the Giants proved to be costly on the injury front, as the Cowboys also lost promising sophomore Patrick Crayton to an ankle injury. Although it wasn't expected, Crayton was a valuable receiving weapon out of the slot, racking up 272 yards in six games. Just like Adams, he proved to be irreplaceable.

Running back Julius Jones suffered directly because of poor blocking up front, but was also limited because of injuries. He has missed 11 games in the past two season and questions about his durability started to mount.

While he was out, rookie Marion Barber provided some tough inside carries, but he is not an explosive threat like Jones.

The receiving corps for the Cowboys became a unit to reckon with, but still wasn't fully exploited to its potential. Although Terry Glenn saw a spike in his production, most likely because he finally played a full season, Keyshawn Johnson and Jason Witten dropped off a little bit.

Johnson's slip was mostly because of his skills deteriorating, more specifically his speed, while Witten was just looked over.

Personnel-wise, the offense was more complete than the defense as the Cowboys were banking on a couple of defenders to step right in.

First-rounders Marcus Spears and DeMarcus Ware were standouts. Ware was a beast, tying with Greg Ellis for the team lead in sacks, with eight. The Cowboys got a lot of pressure from many different players, but still only finished with 37 sacks.

On the line, fourth-round pick Chris Canty eventually put Ellis on the bench right next to La'Roi Glover, who was pushed out of a job thanks to Jason Ferguson. Ferguson wasn't spectacular, but he should improve in his second season in Dallas.

Linebacker Bradie James more than doubled his tackle total from the previous season and was the steady hand at the second level. Dat Nguyen was hampered by injuries and age, which curtailed his final season. Aside from James and Ware, the Cowboys really didn't get any worthwhile minutes from Scott Fujita and were short one solid inside and outside linebacker.

Although most people best remember the Cowboys' secondary getting torched by Santana Moss a couple of times on Monday Night Football, the trio of Anthony Henry, Terrence Newman, and Aaron Glenn is very good. Safety Keith Davis struggled in coverage and really should just stick to special teams.

The Cowboys have rounded out their roster, improving their overall depth and first-string quality in hopes of a playoff run. Unfortunately for them, so have the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants.

This Year

While the signing of Terrell Owens was supposed to be a protracted process — allegedly — the Cowboys wasted no time in plucking the vocal wide receiver off the market.

It was not the first time the Cowboys took on a wideout who was previously suspended midseason by his team, as Bill Parcells took on Keyshawn Johnson after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers deactivated him in 2003.

Terrell Owens may be emotionally unstable, greedy, and self-centered, but the bottom line is there is no point in speculating if or when he will self-destruct. We have to go with what we know right now, and what the Cowboys have is an immense upgrade at the wide receiver position.

The Cowboys didn't exactly achieve their goal of getting younger at the wideout position, but Owens will improve the speed, outside game, and explosiveness of the offense. With Terry Glenn, who has never played back-to-back 16-game seasons, the Cowboys have a very seasoned starting tandem. Glenn facing single coverage could be a real problem for opponents.

Patrick Crayton should return healthy and once again be a viable option out of the slot and with rookie speedster Skyler Green, the Cowboys probably won't see such a drop off if he is forced into the lineup.

Green figures to give the Cowboys a big boost on special teams and has the potential to be a dynamic returner. But the special teams will get their biggest dose of Red Bull from the signing of Mike Vanderjagt, the most accurate kicker in NFL history. He should single-footedly propel the Cowboys to the playoffs, especially suffering through so many disheartening losses due to waiver-wire kickers.

Depth and skill was addressed on the offensive line as the Cowboys added tackle Jason Fabini and guard Kyle Kosier to the starting rotation. The Cowboys might miss Larry Allen a little bit at guard, but Fabini, whom Parcells drafted at an earlier coaching stint, is a steep upgrade at right tackle. The Cowboys have some depth with Marc Colombo, Andre Gurode, and Rob Petitti, but would rather not test it.

The Cowboys have added a few more ingredients on defense and now have the bakings of a complete defense.

On the line, Chris Canty and Marcus Spears seem set to anchor the end positions for the distant future, while Ferguson should only improve in his second season at the nose of the 3-4 defense. The linebackers were two bricks short of a load last year, but appear to be rounding into shape with the signing of Akin Ayodele and the drafting of Bobby Carpenter.

One caveat about Ayodele is that his former team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, were never thrilled with his performance. His name might be penciled into the starting lineup for now but Rocky Boiman, Al Singleton or Kevin Burnett could erase his name in training camp.

The strong secondary returns and the Cowboys added a couple of players who might be able to upgrade the safety position next to Roy Williams. Veteran Marcus Coleman is being used at both corner and safety but he would probably get the first chance to replace Keith Davis. The second player is fifth-round pick, Pat Watkins, but he is much more of a longshot. Aside from free safety, possibly an inside linebacking position and depth at a couple of places, the Cowboys don't really have any holes.

Although the Eagles are expected to compete, the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys will be vying for the number one spot in the NFC East. Finally equipped with a top-notch kicker, the Cowboys should be the team who finishes on top.

Over/Under: 9.5

For the Cowboys to make the playoffs, they would have to win 10 games, so if you are a believer, the over looks solid here. They are in a dog-eat-dog division and have a testing schedule, but they know have proven playmakers on offense and an experienced kicker to help them win those close games. They play: @JAC, WAS, @TEN, @PHI, HOU, NYG, @CAR, @WAS, @ARZ, IND, TB, @NYG, NO, @ATL, PHI, and DET.

Fantasy Sleeper

Julius Jones was supposed to be a breakout running back in fantasy football last season, but injuries curtailed his production. He is focusing on shedding the "fragile" label and if he does, you will want this player who has 12 touchdowns and has averaged 95 yards per game in his two-year career. All signs point to a breakout season.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 7:00 PM | Comments (2)

Thank You, Jim Furyk

Jim Furyk has never been ranked higher than he is right now — which is fourth, for those of you out there who don't know. He is having a career season in terms of quality of play and money earned with a win at the Wachovia Championship, six top-three finishes, and nearly $4.7 million in earnings. By any measure, Furyk could be considered the second or third best player on Tour this year.

I am not thankful for the fact that Furyk is having his best season now, but am praising Jim for the timing of his excellent play. In the last four events he has played, Tiger Woods has joined him in the field (U.S. Open, Western Open, British Open, Buick Open). For four straight events, Furyk has ended up in the top five, with silver medalist honors at the U.S. Open and this week's Buick Open. No other player in that stretch has come even close to playing as well as Tiger Woods.

While Tiger did not play well at the U.S. Open, Furyk proved he has the game to win the most grueling major one more time. Furyk defended his Western Open title with vigor and competed against Woods, though neither wound up as champion. Even though Furyk did not factor into the equation on Sunday at Royal Liverpool, Furyk did outplay his links abilities that he has displayed to date for the first three days of the championship.

That brings us to this week in Michigan and the Buick Open, where Furyk had nearly 30 consecutive rounds under par, including a victory. He trailed the leaders, including Woods, by four shots going into the final round. Being the grinder that he is, Furyk was unfazed by the deficit and played a sparkling front nine on Sunday at Warwick Hills. Realizing he had a legitimate opportunity to threaten Woods, he then proceeded to play an even better side coming home with a 31 that featured five birdies in six holes.

For a time, Furyk nodded up with Woods atop the leaderboard and the fans in Michigan were definitely thrilled to see someone actually challenge the man who is 20-0 when leading after 54 holes with a two or more shot advantage. Golf fans are always looking for a legitimate challenger to Tiger's dominance, especially when he is a ridiculous -42 in his last eight rounds of tournament golf.

Sure, Furyk ran out of holes and had to succumb to going down in the record books as the guy who finished in second place when Tiger reached 50 PGA Tour victories. But, he will also go down as the only guy that week who made any kind of legitimate charge at the greatest golfer of our generation.

Jim Furyk will gladly tell you that Tiger Woods is in a class all of his own, and Woods proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt this week. But, for the last four weeks, and really all season, Furyk has proved that he can compete with Tiger Woods on a week to week basis. He is yet to beat Tiger this season for a victory, but Furyk has been an incredibly steady thorn in his side. That's really all you can ask from a rival, short of beating Woods one-on-one.

And, trust me, that will happen in due time if Furyk keeps playing the way he has been this season. With the PGA Championship coming up in two weeks and being staged on the longest course in major championship history, Furyk may not be able to prove his worth against Woods there. For as straight as Furyk hits the ball, he is still miles behind the longest bombers on Tour and will struggle at times to adjust his game to regular mid to long iron approaches into Medinah's greens.

On courses where the field is leveled out, like Warwick Hills, Furyk shows that he has all of the talent and ability to be a top-three player in the world. The problem is that majors are staged on courses like Medinah that reward the longest hitters and favor a power game that has passed by Furyk. This new style of golf limits the field of champions, but saddest of all, neglects the way the game should really be played — the way Jim Furyk plays golf.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 5:23 PM | Comments (0)

August 8, 2006

Making the Ultimate Sacrifice

Paris Hilton wants to prove to you that she's not a slut. Accordingly, she's decided to give up sex for an entire year. Sure, sex has played a pretty enormous role in why she is so famous, but her effort to better her image should be applauded. In fact, the sports world would be well served to take notice and follow suit.

The idea of a year-long abstinence in order to make the sports world a better place sounds like a fantastic idea. It's like a year-long Lent and the reward when Easter rolls around is a better world for all sports fans. Still, as history has proved countless times, one man cannot make a difference. Everyone needs to come together on this. These are the things that athletes need to give up for one year.

Floyd Landis: giving up riding his bike — Let's be honest, his career is finished if he's hit with that two-year ban, so he's got to focus all of his attention on fighting to clear his name. Watching him spin a new excuse everyday has been mildly amusing, but think of the material we would get from him working on a brand new excuse every week.

After a few months, I'm pretty sure he'd reveal that he's merely caught in the crossfire of a confrontation between a number of ninjas led by an angry man wearing metal shrapnel and a collection of mutated sewer inhabitants fueled by several large pepperoni pizzas.

Barry Bonds: giving up hating everyone — It's not that I don't enjoy Barry's overwhelming disdain of everyone not named Barry Bonds, but the sports world would be a better place without it. Now, don't think Barry has to turn down his aggression just because he's toning down the hate. He can still try to kill everyone, only now he has to do it with kindness. He needs to fight back against his critics using a brand new arsenal of compliments and random acts of kindness. At the very least it would make for a few new episodes of Bonds on Bonds.

Peyton Manning: giving up choking in the playoffs and then blaming the rest of the team — The best throw Manning made in the playoffs last year was when he sent his offensive line spiraling under the bus. Without the "it's not my fault" attitude, I'm curious to see what can happen. Is he really good enough to get the Colts to the Super Bowl? Can he really be a team leader? Or will he challenge Floyd Landis in a competition to find the most absurd excuses for failure?

Marcus Vick: giving up pulling guns on teenagers in the parking lot of McDonald's — I'm not saying I disagree with his actions, because I know teenagers these days are cruel and can say hurtful things. I know it hurts doubly for those meanie-heads to hurt Vick's feelings at McDonald's, a place closely associated with happiness. Pulling a gun on the kids probably seemed like a just recourse in Vick's mind.

Still, he's impressing people in Miami and can't afford to mess this up. The NFL needs another Vick. Not just for the excitement he could bring to the game, but the potential havoc the Mexico brothers could wreak off the field is too entertaining to throw away over some wise-cracking 17-year-olds taking the Happy out of your Meal.

Chris Henry: giving up wearing his jersey while he commits crimes — I know this would be like acting Batman to fight in his street clothes, but if Henry wants to keep up his streak of breaking laws in humiliating fashion, he needs to come up with a costume separate of his football garb. I would much rather have him jumping out of limos while wearing a mask, cape, and leotard than wearing his Bengals No. 84 jersey.

Brett Myers: giving up punching his wife in the face — There has to be a better way of handling aggression. The sports world will be a calmer place once Myers realized he married a woman, not a stress relief toy.

Zinedine Zidane's mother: giving up demanding the testicles of other player's on a platter — After it was revealed what was said to Zidane, his mother reportedly wanted the testicles of the trash talker on a platter. I'm not pretending that soccer moms aren't crazy, because they are, I just fear for the time she's returning a call to the AP while dining at a restaurant. If you're the waiter when she orders someone's testicles on a platter, what do you do? Do you inform her that your menu doesn't carry that at the risk of seeing which parent Zinedine gets his head butting from, or do you try to find alternate testicles to serve her in the hopes that she has no way of verifying them?

Shawn Kemp: giving up trying to return to the NBA without fathering another child — He's attempting to comeback with the Denver Nuggets, but something doesn't feel right. He was arrested and charged with drug possession a few weeks ago (so I can check that off my list), but he's yet to father a new child during this comeback. To some basketball fans, that's part of who Shawn Kemp is. His return will never be successful until that happens.

I'm sure there are people who will be against this, but where's the logic in that? Whose to say that Shawn Kemp's 15th child couldn't end up being the President? Are you willing to come out and protest the conception of the future leader of the free world? Let's just hope this child is a boy...

Adam Morrison: giving up crying like a little girl while maintaining the same hairstyle — It's not the crying like a girl that's the main problem, it's the crying like a girl while sporting a girl's haircut. Every time he starts shedding tears next season, the new fans will think that crazy lady on the court is crying because she can't grow an adequate mustache. This is really just a rule for the fans.

Vijay Singh: giving up having a personality — This is just so he can have a valid excuse for not having a personality.

Mark Chalifoux is also a weekly columnist for SportsFan Magazine. His columns appear every Tuesday on SC. You can e-mail Mark at [email protected].

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 4:52 PM | Comments (0)

Wal-Mart Merchandise, Tiffany's Price?

The New York Mets have the best of all possible situations. They don't just have the National League's best record, but they also have a scapegoat that even the Big Apple tabloids can accept, just in case things go wrong.

Dave Littlefield.

During the run-up to this year's major league trading deadline, unnamed sources in the Mets' front office were using the city's sports scribes to accuse the Pittsburgh Pirates' general manager of one of the most serious trade-deadline offenses.

The Mets, it seems, would have liked to get Pirates' pitcher Kip Wells to round out their pitching staff. But Littlefield was reportedly asking for two top prospects well along in the New York system.

New York's front office's counteroffer consisted of a top Class A prospect, which was probably closer to Wells' actual worth, but Littlefield balked, and the trade never happened.

Littlefield did make some trades, but those were deals for fringe players — guys like Craig Wilson and Oliver Perez — even by Pirates' standards.

Wilson will be a free agent after the season and, since he probably realized long ago that he would never get a chance to be an everyday player in Pittsburgh, there was no chance they would re-sign him.

The Pirates might have undersold Wilson just to get something upon his departure.

Perez, who was among the league leaders in strikeouts per nine innings as a rookie in 2004, never regained the form of that season.

Before he was sent to the minors, he was one of the worst performers in a starting pitching rotation that, going by its performance in the first half of this season, was composed entirely of weak links.

Pittsburgh's two most marketable players, Wells and shortstop Jack Wilson, are still with the team, and if the Mets' sources are to be believed, it's because the Pirates' GM put Tiffany's price tags on Wal-Mart merchandise.

Actually, though, the analogy is a lot closer to that of a garage sale than department stores. If I have a roll-top desk sitting out front some Saturday morning with a $100 price tag and some interested person comes along, the bargaining can begin.

If the other guy starts off at $25, I might move to $80 or $90. Eventually, he might go as high as $50.

But I might have already decided that I'd rather put the thing in my own study if I can't get $60 for it. So it's no sale and we both walk away.

That's pretty much what happened with Wells and the Mets. At the end of the day, Wells was more valuable to Littlefield — if not necessarily the Pirates — than he was to New York.

Littlefield decided that if he couldn't get a player who was ready to play in the Major Leagues now, or next year at the latest, he was better off keeping Wells and Jack Wilson.

For either of those two players, he needed to get a player who could help the Pirates to a .500 record next season and into a pennant race by 2008. Class A players, even top prospects, need not apply.

Since the last time Pittsburgh made the playoffs in 1992, its management had hatched nearly as many five-year plans as Josef Stalin, with nary a winning season to show for it.

That alone would be enough to convince any GM that the clock is ticking. But Littlefield has hardly had an auspicious tenure in Pittsburgh, even if you don't consider the team's won-lost record.

After the 2003 season, Littlefield decided not to protect Chris Shelton in the Rule Five draft and he was snapped up by the Detroit Tigers. Shelton is in the minor leagues now, but he has the potential to be a superstar.

Following 2002, he traded pitcher Chris Young, now 9-5 with San Diego, for Matt Herges, who was released without ever pitching a game. Littlefield also traded slugging third baseman Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs for virtually nothing.

If Pittsburgh goes to another five-year plan, Littlefield won't be around to see it. And a guy who is now in Class A won't help Pittsburgh in its current one.

Trading Wells for a prospect in the low minors could only have helped Littlefield's eventual predecessor. So the Pirates' GM decided to hope Wells lives up to his potential and blossoms into a legitimate top-two starter.

With a possible pink slip in his future and no immediate help coming over the trade line, Littlefield is left with little choice but to hope that his current hand — which appears to be a 6-4 offsuit, in Texas hold 'em-speak — magically transforms into a royal flush.

In fact, he's betting his job on it.

Posted by Eric Poole at 4:29 PM | Comments (1)

August 7, 2006

The NFL Draft's Forgotten Rounds

Quick question: name one player taken in the seventh round of the NFL draft. How about the sixth round? Fourth round? I can name two second-day draft picks, but only because they were both drafted by my hometown Jacksonville Jaguars.

Yes, Reggie Bush will get over 150 touches this year with the Saints, Mario Williams will help bolster a pathetic Texans pass rush, and Matt Leinart will be throwing touchdowns to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald before the Cards are eliminated from playoff contention. But what about Detroit's seventh-round pick Anthony Cannon? He's a quick linebacker that could force a fumble or two on special teams.

Or the Giants' selection at 224 in the seventh round with Gerrick McPhearson? He's the fastest player to ever come out of Maryland. EVER. You don't think Tom Coughlin's going to put him on the end of the field goal team to block Mike Vanderjagt kicks twice a year? What if it's McPhearson that blocks a kick with the Giants leading by two and Coughlin's Giants capture a wildcard spot all because of an obscure cornerback from Maryland?

There are little-known draft picks made every year after the LenDale Whites and Jay Cutlers are off the board. The fourth through seventh rounds of the draft can make or break a team that loses a starter or two to injury. Just look at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Two seventh round draft picks, Rob Meier and Bobby McCray, accounted for 11.5 sacks last year. That's more than Dwight Freeney or Julius Peppers. Granted, Peppers and Freeney are special players that do much more than sack — they pressure the quarterback, bat down passes, and drop back into zone coverage. They are two of the best athletes playing the game right now, but they are asked to play probably five times as many snaps as McCray and Meier.

But, the two probably ask for five times the salary.

Second day draft picks can hurt a team just as much as benefit them. Look a team that went an entire year without any second day draft picks: the New Orleans Saints. Yes, they got Ricky Williams for a short while and he was a phenomenal pickup for them. But the Saints missed out on six or seven players that could have been potential offensive linemen, third down wide receivers to complement Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth, or a decent linebacker push for a starting job. That is why there are winners and losers in every round of the NFL draft, not just the first, second, and third rounds.

Fourth Round

WINNER — Baltimore with its selection of wide receiver Demetrius Williams. The man has experience (a three-year starter at Oregon), size (6'2", 200 pounds), and had over 16 yards a catch last season. I figured the Browns would select Williams with their third round draft pick. Instead, Cleveland went with oft-injured Travis Wilson of Oklahoma. I think Baltimore got quite a steal with this pick.

LOSER — Minnesota with their selection of Ray Edwards, a defensive end from Purdue. I saw him play a game or two and he had athletic ability and good instincts, but he's a headache for coaches. This is not the kind of player to bring into an organization looking for stability, especially since the real story about the cruise ship was uncovered.

SLEEPER — Leon Washington of the New York Jets. He could turn out to be quite a find for an organization frantically searching for a replacement for Curtis Martin. If the Jets use a running back by committee approach, look for Washington to fit in quite nicely as the third-down back.

Fifth Round

WINNER — Seattle with hometown boy David Kirtman from USC. The man has more experience than any fullback coming out of college in recent years as he blocked for not one, but two NFL-caliber running backs in LenDale White and Reggie Bush. Kirtman will fit in perfectly as Shaun Alexander's lead blocker and will line up in most (if not all) special teams formations.

LOSER — I really liked this round. Not many teams did anything to where I said to myself, "Man, they really messed up there." The only thing I can say bad about it is that I hate that Green Bay selected Ingle Martin, a hometown Florida Gator from nearby Gainesville who transferred to Furman to get more playing time. I really don't think Martin stands a chance to do anything more than be the practice squad's whipping boy. Aaron Rodgers is the man in the driver's seat when Favre decides he's finally too old to play football, which will probably be around the second week of the preseason (hopefully). I hate to see the Packers lose. My Uncle grew up there. Green Bay natives don't take well to bad football. Ever.

SLEEPER — I didn't want to be a homer and pick the Jacksonville Jaguars' selection of Brent Hawkins as my "winner." The guy is a pass-rushing machine that coach Jack Del Rio is thanking his lucky stars was available to him this late in the fifth round. I've seen Hawkins in training camp. He isn't very big, but he has heart and more drive than any other rookie on the team. He's a blue-collar guy you'd expect to see in Pittsburgh playing under Bill Cowher, but Del Rio was lucky enough to pick up Hawkins, whom many had projected would go on the first day.

Sixth Round

WINNER — Why do I have the feeling Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots had inside information when they selected guard Dan Stevenson from Charlie Weis' Fighting Irish? Under Belichick, the Patriots have always had great cold-weather offensive linemen and Stevenson will fit in perfectly.

LOSER — Why did Baltimore waste their pick on Derrick Martin of Wyoming? All I read about him is that he's not a very coachable player. And he came out a year early. It's not exactly a real formula for success. Billick is on the hot seat and he needs players to contribute immediately. My prediction is that Martin will not even make the roster.

SLEEPER — Jeff Webb of Kansas City. I see Webb getting a couple dozen passes thrown his way this year on third down, but more importantly, he will take some much needed pressure off of Eddie Kennison. I like Webb at this position. It's very little risk yet high reward for the Chiefs.

Seventh Round

WINNER — Dallas with their selection of centerE.J. Whitley from Texas Tech. He's a hometown boy who has great size for a center (6'5", 290). Parcells has been playing with smaller linemen and now's his chance to put in a big guy from Texas. What's not to like?

LOSER — Tampa Bay, no question. They selected not one, not two, but three tight ends on the second day. Tim Massoqui of Michigan will be on the practice squad. Why waste this pick? Trade the seventh-rounders you have for a sixth-round draft pick, or combine some late draft picks for a fifth-round pick. Just don't select three tight ends. Not when you can get a practice squad tight end easily in undrafted free agency.

SLEEPER — Wide receiver Kevin McMahan of Oakland. Why? Because he's the 31st Mr. Irrelevant and probably the first in a while to have a chance at making a difference for an NFL team. He's a big guy that Aaron Brooks could use in the red zone. At the very least, he's big enough to make a tackle downfield on kickoffs.

Posted by Ryan Day at 8:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Save Us From the Save

I was watching the Royals on TV with a girlfriend the other day, and the dreaded baseball questioning started.

"Why is there a mound? Why is it a manager and not a coach? Where's the other earflap on the batting helmet? What does RBI stand for? Why do they keep track of that?"

You probably have two questions at this point: are there still Royals fans out there? And is the girl cute — and available?

Yes, yes, and yes (but hopefully not for long).

Nevertheless, like any other man who likes to concentrate on his baseball games (think Vince Vaughn in "The Break Up"), I was annoyed. It's your typical girl who wants to learn about the game, but is so far behind that she would make better use of her time by fixing up some buffalo wings.

So to try to give her a dose of her own medicine, I sat and watched "What Not to Wear" with her on TLC.

Every 30 seconds, I interrupted and asked, "Why do they say the ruffled shirt looks better? How does green make her look skinny? Wasn't that guy in 'Big Daddy'?"

She didn't seem annoyed at all — in fact, she enjoyed that I was showing interest. Damn. But even worse, I got sick so sick of it that I got up and left.

Inevitably, the next day she wanted to watch the game with me again. She sat down and began asking questions again. Up to this point, I had been able to give answers for every question she had. But then she asked a question that got me.

It was while I was taking my first bite of the buffalo wings she had made for me. They showed highlights of yesterday's game and talked about Royals closer Ambiorix Burgos.

"Why do they bring in a closer for the ninth inning?" she asked.

I began to answer the questions, but I realized that she was on to something here. Why do they bring in a closer? Is it that much harder to get those three outs in the ninth inning? And if the setup man is throwing so well, why take him out?

I fell into a trance and got lost in this life-altering question.

***

I thought about all the situations that the save statistic has hurt a team. For example, let's say you're playing the Red Sox and you're up by two runs in the ninth inning. There are two outs and David Ortiz is up to bat with a man on first.

Your closer hasn't been throwing too well, and Ortiz has a career .350 average against him. But your closer might be able to get the save here, so you leave him in. But why? Why not bring in a left-handed specialist to get that final out?

I know why — because it's entirely taboo to take out your closer if he hasn't yet blown the save.

Now, I appreciate the fact that someone like Mariano Rivera strikes fear in the hearts of opposing teams when they're down by one in the ninth. But because of the save, Rivera only pitches one inning at a time. Why can't someone so dominant pitch two or three innings, like the old days?

In fact, why can't you have two or three closers on a team? That way, you can shorten a game by more than one inning and pitch certain guys on situations that best fit them.

It's entirely false that only the elite relievers have the mindset needed to be a closer. There are plenty of pitchers out there with a closer mindset. Billy Beane would appreciate this. In fact, he's probably already figured out that the save is one of the most overrated statistics in the game today. He's probably just grooming Huston Street so that he can trade him away for three guys who can do the same thing, but for much less money.

Nowadays, closers get about one save for a every two innings they pitch. In the olden days, a "closer" or "stopper" would get one save for every three-four innings they pitched. Players like Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage would be brought in and taken out when needed — not put in the game just to earn a save.

When announcers say, "Here's a save situation — we have the closer warming up in the pen," I just cringe. Who decided that a three runs lead was the point where you need a closer?

If the save is the ruler by which we measure relievers, then Lee Smith is the Hank Aaron of closers. But we all know that's not the case. Aaron was great. Smith is just the answer to a trivia question.

So here's my solution: instead of using the save to measure a reliever's performance, use a stat called "innings saved."

I would define "innings saved" as:

The number of innings a pitcher completes in which his team is leading by three runs or less. A pitcher is only eligible for an "inning saved" if it is the sixth inning or later, and he is not the starting pitcher.

Apologies for the lack of eloquence there, but simply put, it is a stat that would keep track of how many valuable innings a reliever pitches en route to a win. I don't want the save done away with, but I do want this statistic to be a big part of the way relief pitchers are judged.

It would be the on-base percentage of relief pitching — the next big thing! I'll write a book about it, titled Moneyball 2! And after reading my book, GMs would be in hot pursuit of Rheal Cormier, Scott Eyre, and Rafael Soriano — all great setup men.

Oh, how great life would be…

***

I break out of my trance.

The Royals are already down by three and the girlfriend is still sitting next to me. Fifteen minutes have passed and she's been silent the whole time. Then she gets that looks on her face — you know, the one where they want to say something, but are waiting for you to make eye-contact with them.

"Oh, I get why they have a closer. I'll bet only some people can take all that pressure ... and plus, they always say you should save the best for last."

That's the thing with girls — they build you up then break you down.

A few more innings pass and the Royals come back to tie it up and send the game to the 10th inning. Burgos comes in to save the game, and I say to myself, "Well I guess he's here to prove me wrong ... the save is important."

But, of course, he blew the save and the Royals took out Joe Nelson after only 1.2 innings earlier in the game. Nelson had only allowed one hit and is one of the best pitchers in their pen (22.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 21 games). I'd seen this before with many other teams, so it made me wonder whether I was on to something.

Before I could figure out whether this stat would actually help in any way, I began to realize the importance of the save: fan appeal.

A lot of these stats are for the fans — saves, hitting streaks, batting average...

These stats don't help win games. The only things that win games are runs and outs, and these stats don't accurately measure either of those. But these stats help people like me spend hours upon hours contemplating something so miniscule.

So in the end, I'll come to terms with the save, find ways to avoid watching games with the girl, and find a way to make her act like she's more interested in me than the game. But in the meantime, Burgos will blow a few more saves and I'll be here wondering why that left-handed specialist isn't jogging out of the pen.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 6:49 PM | Comments (1)

August 5, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Cleveland Browns

Last Year

Fed Exing of Pepto-Bismol and speculation in regards to the sexual orientation of the team's quarterback were quaint memories as Romeo Crennel took over a messy program and quickly cleaned it up. The running back and quarterback positions were solidified as the Browns displayed an eerie Patriots-like competitiveness as the season wore on. Cleveland is near the end of their rebuilding mode and should be a spoiler team that not many opponents will envy playing by the end of the season.

What We Learned From Last Year

After inheriting a team that had only won four games, it was clear that Crennel was not going to have much to work with in his first season.

No where was this more evident than in the Cleveland Browns' defensive front seven. Crennel installed his patented 3-4 scheme, which typically takes at least two seasons to set up with the proper pieces. He lacked a stout nose tackle right at the point of attack as Jason Fisk was a grinder, but just didn't have the bulk to tie up blockers. Furthermore, he consistently wore downs as games progressed.

At the end position, Orpheus Roye had a stellar season and was one of the lone bright spots. He finished with 88 tackles, tops in the NFL among defensive linemen.

The other standout on the defense was linebacker Andra Davis, who somehow didn't make the Pro Bowl, even though he led the league in tackles. He performed very well, but if there was one qualm to make, it was that he didn't make many game-changing plays. But if he made few, Ben Taylor and Matt Stewart made less, as both were just average linebackers. Chaun Thompson was useful as a pass rusher, totaling five sacks, but there are questions as to whether he can play a full-time role.

While the front seven simply did not have the personnel, the secondary had a mix of players that the Browns were hoping would develop. Unfortunately, nobody overwhelmed.

Cornerback Gary Baxter was a prize free agent signing, who was supposed to step in as the team's top cornerback, but injuries limited him to only five games. Leigh Bodden performed well in his place and veteran Daylon McCutcheon put in his hours, but the Browns clearly didn't have a top-flight corner.

At the safety spot, the Browns were banking on production from either of their last two second-round picks, Brodney Pool or Sean Jones. Pool was a rookie, while Jones was essentially a rookie after missing 2004 with a season-long injury. They both still have much to prove.

As much as you can pick apart the defense for their inability to generate quarterback pressure or their failure to stop the run, they did reduce the amount of points they allowed from 390 to 301. In other words, they gave up a ton of yards between the 20s, but stiffened up in the red zone. Patriot-esque, isn't it?

On offense, no one was expecting to see the 2000 St. Louis Rams, but the loss of Kellen Winslow, Jr. to another season-ending injury was disheartening. The Browns were optimistic that the addition of Braylon Edwards in the draft in combination with a consistent season from Antonio Bryant and a healthy Winslow would be the foundation of an effective offense.

Unfortunately, as injuries curtailed the seasons of both Winslow and Edwards, Bryant was left as the lone weapon. He finally pieced together a somewhat consistent season, setting new personal highs for receptions and receiving yards, but he still dropped too many passes, particularly early in the season.

On the offensive line, the Browns took a flier on tackle L.J. Shelton, and he played pretty well opposite of the team's best blocker, tackle Ryan Tucker, but the rest of the front five was sub par. The failures of the interior can be pinned on center Jeff Faine, who was manhandled on several occasions. See: Casey Hampton.

The Browns' third-round pick, quarterback Charlie Frye, was tabbed as the signal caller of the future and in the final five games of the season, he got his feet wet. Although he was sacked 21 times in seven games, mostly from holding onto the ball too long, he did show enough arm strength and accuracy to support that he does have a long future in the NFL as a starter.

Some people questioned why the Browns acquired Reuben Droughns from Denver, and although he was far from flashy, Droughns provided the consistency that Lee Suggs and William Green could not offer. Coming over from a Broncos offense that churns out 1,000-yard rushers annually, many people assumed Droughns was just a product of the system and that he would flop in Cleveland. Quite the contrary, as he turned out to be their best offensive weapon.

The Browns have had a solid offseason by continuing to fill out their roster with quality players, but this season will be a year of development and all eyes will be on Frye, Winslow and Edwards, determining what kind of future is in store.

This Year

Considering the front seven ranked dead last in sack total, accumulating only 23, it was imperative that the Browns address their pass rush.

The Browns infused nose tackles Ted Washington and Babatunde Oshinowo and linebackers Willie McGinest, Kamerion Wimbley, D'Qwell Jackson, and Leon Williams.

Washington figures to make the biggest impact because if a 3-4 defense is weak the point of attack, it is not going to function properly.

Although he is a grayed veteran, Washington is obviously familiar Crennel from their days together in New England and knows exactly what his coach will be looking for. The same can be said for McGinest, who will be asked to get some pressure on the quarterback from the outside positions.

The presence of these two should be invaluable to an inexperienced defense and both Wimbley and Oshinowo stand to learn a lot from these savvy vets.

With Washington, Roye, and Alvin McKinley upfront, the Browns have the makings of a fairly decent defensive line. Depth is scant but at least the front lines are capable.

Stud linebacker Andra Davis might have as many as three new starters keeping him company. The aforementioned Wimbley and McGinest will be the two new faces on the outside while the other middle spot will be up to either rookie D'Qwell Jackson or incumbent Chaun Thompson. The coaching staff doesn't seem overly sold on Thompson, which is why they likely drafted Jackson.

The secondary entails three quality corners in Baxter, Bodden and McCutcheon but the safeties at the back end cause some anxiety.

Free safety Brian Russell is a run-of-the-mill safety. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well but is fairly sound all around. If he was next to a Pro Bowl strong safety, you could get by. But he'll be starting next to either Brodney Pool or Sean Jones. The team is high on both of these guys but both are inexperienced. Pool is very athletic and has a knack for being around the football. The Browns need one of these two guys to take a big step forward and the front office feels it will be Jones.

On offense, the Browns swapped L.J. Shelton and Jeff Faine off their offensive line for Kevin Shaffer and LeCharles Bentley. Shaffer, who was signed from Atlanta, fended defensive linemen off a fairly mobile quarterback in Michael Vick, so he should do a solid job covering Frye's blindside. Bentley was a great signing by the Browns and losing him to a season-ending injury will be especially painful since the play of their center is critical with two division rivals who like to employ the 3-4 defense. Backup Bob Hallen is a decent intermediate fill-in, but this figures to be a nagging problem all year. With a young quarterback like Frye, expect the Browns to see a ton of blitzes up the middle.

The running back position was quite a mess prior to Droughns' arrival, but is now not much of a concern heading forward. Lee Suggs still has the most talent and explosiveness among the backs, but his fragile body has missed 23 games in the last three seasons. First-round bust William Green is all but out of the picture and if Suggs limps off again, rookie Jerome Harrison will likely take over the third-down role. I get the feeling a change of scenery would be great for Suggs.

Coaches didn't feel like dealing with the inconsistency of Antonio Bryant anymore and shipped him to San Francisco. Their new temporary top target will be Joe Jurevicius, who will fill that role until Braylon Edwards is fully recovered. Edwards wasn't supposed to return before October, but miraculously has already begun practicing.

The play of the self-proclaimed "soldier" Kellen Winslow is going to be critical for the Browns. The crop of receivers on this team is as weak as Barry Bonds' batting average.

Jurevicius is overrated as a number one wideout, while Dennis Northcutt and Frisman Jackson are not suitable for primary or secondary roles. With the newest NFL trend moving to faster and smaller wide receivers, Jurevicius is out of fashion and is too slow to attract a lot of attention, although he does a great job of adjusting to the ball. He's not going to scare any secondary.

The Browns desperately need Winslow to play at a high level, but that is an enormous expectation, considering the guy has missed 30 straight games and is recovering from two major injuries. It is difficult to envision the Browns being able to move the ball on offense with any success unless Edwards is at full speed right away.

Players like Frye, Winslow, Edwards, Wimbley, and Pool are the future in Cleveland and as their development goes, so will the Browns. It is unlikely they will be vying for a playoff spot this year, but the talented seeds have been planted and with a smart head coach at the helm, this is going to be a team that ruins a few playoff aspirations down the stretch.

Over/Under: 6.5

The Browns' three division rivals are all ranked in the top eight of NFL toughest schedules and you can expect the Browns to get overlooked a couple of times. They will not finish with a 1-5 division record this year. They play: NO, @CIN, BAL, @OAK, @CAR, DEN, NYJ, @SD, @ATL, PIT, CIN, KC, @PIT, BAL, @TB, and @HOU.

Fantasy Sleeper

It is difficult to depend on anyone in the Browns passing offense for fantasy production, especially Kellen Winslow, who has trash-talked much more than he has performed. The best value pick off this offense here is Reuben Droughns. He posted solid yardage numbers last season and should duplicate them once again, while bettering his touchdown total. The Browns are improved all across the board, which should mean more red zone visits.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 10:35 PM | Comments (1)

Soriano Losers

"I want to win a World Series and get to the Hall of Fame." — second baseman Alfonso Soriano, March 1, 2004 to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Attempting to discover truth at the trade deadline is like trying to read smoke signals in a hurricane. To hear Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowdon spin his team's complete inability to broker a trade for all-star outfielder Alfonso Soriano is at best confusing, at worst symbolic of a man who's clawing so hard to stay in a job that he's down to the bone.

"We felt the best deal we could make is no deal," Bowden said in a conference call.

Pathetic. Here is a franchise that is clearly building for the future, because the future is the building: that sterling new stadium on the Anacostia waterfront that's really the only thing keeping this vagabond team from floating on to the next baseball-friendly port.

Whatever happens for this last season-and-a-quarter in RFK Stadium or in the honeymoon 2008 season when Viagra Park at Anthony Williams Yards (or whatever) opens is immaterial — the next time the Nationals need worry about contending is in 2009, when all of the luster of this new ballpark, and its still-novel tenants, has worn off. If that season's team is 49-60 at the beginning of August, then DC baseball will completely disappear from the hearts and minds of fans when Redskins camp opens.

So the Nats need to start constructing a winner, and to do so requires players you can win with. They appear to have a core of batsmen they can build around: I love third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, catcher Brian Schneider, and first baseman Nick Johnson. At least two of them will be in their primes come 2009, and it's never too difficult to find bats to surround them if the Nats' new owners are as committed to winning as they claim to be.

Arms are a different issue. For a team that should be in a rebuilding mode, the Nationals have only seven pitchers born after 1980 on their 40-man roster. Combine that with the fact that the Nats are ranked 24th in Baseball America's minor league organizational talent rankings — after being ranked 26th in 2005 and 30th in 2004 — and the team's future is about as bleak as Mel Gibson's chances of working with Jeffrey Katzenberg.

Trading Soriano would have brought back something. Not the blue-chippers Bowden believed the trade required, but at least three or four bodies Washington doesn't have now. If one pitcher from a Soriano trade makes the Nats' starting rotation in 2009, it's a successful trade. Keep in mind that Washington traded Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge for Soriano to begin with.

Bowden's other message, however, may have revealed the true reason why Soriano wasn't dealt: the team's hope-against-hope wish that this 30-year-old superstar who publicly yearned to win a World Series two years ago will re-sign with a team several years from hitting that mark.

"He wants to stay in DC and did not want to be traded," said Bowden, cowing to Soriano in a way I never thought he would after winning that spring training battle over his move to the outfield.

This is a direct reaction to Soriano's anti-trade rant, as reported by the Baltimore Sun: "To be honest, it's tough to say I'd come back if they trade me because you know if they trade me I'm going to think that I cannot be good for this team, because they traded me, because they [do] not need me anymore."

This guy has played the good citizen, "I want to stay in DC" card all season, and to be honest, I haven't believed it once. As I reiterated at the top of the column: "I want to win a World Series and get to the Hall of Fame." The Hall of Fame business won't be hard, because the bar for enshrinement is dropping faster than Patrick Ramsey's fantasy football stock. He'll need over 300 home runs and a way to get those RBI totals up, but it's not out of the question.

But the World Series victory isn't going to happen with the Nationals until he's in his mid-30s, if at all, because this team's pitching is in such sorry shape for the future. If he does stay in DC, he wants a no-trade clause, which Nationals President Stan Kasten doesn't believe in. If Soriano really wants to win and to stay put with one team, he's not re-signing in Washington.

If the stars align, priorities change, and he does re-sign, Bowden doesn't just deserve to keep his job, but to have a bronze statue of him hanging up on general managers during the trade deadline erected near the left-field fence.

But if Soriano leaves for greener pastures — okay, the Yankees — and all the Nationals get are a couple of lousy draft picks, then Bowden lost this crap shoot, big time.

At least the Expos got some prospects back when waving goodbye to their best players.

Random Thoughts

Guilty or not guilty, Floyd Landis blew a major marketing opportunity.

How does that guy not stand up in front of the press and say: "Yeah, elevated testosterone. I don't like to brag, but THAT'S JUST HOW MUCH OF A MAN I AM, BA-BY!"

Reporter: "Uh, Mr. Landis, and those reports about finding synthetic testosterone in your system?"

Floyd: "What are you, a hater? How'd you like it if I turned my bike sideways and shoved it up yer Tour de Ass?"

Okay, it might not have helped his cause ... but it would have at least gotten him an endorsement deal with Axe Body Spray or Slim Jim...

The NBA's new playoff format is a joke, completely undermining the divisional format because Mark Cuban went crying to his blog about home-court advantage. But the real bonehead move out of the offseason rules meeting was this strange decision: "If a team has two 60-second timeouts left in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime, one will be reduced to a 20-second timeout."

Since when did smart coaching become an affront to basketball? I'm stunned the NBA is against having two 60-second timeouts in the last two minutes of a game — I mean, that's at least three commercials, right?

Eric Lindros recently signed a free agent contract in Dallas. Makes sense — he's been seeing Stars for the last seven years...

Finally, a report out of New Jersey has the New York Jets naming Chad Pennington as the starter for the 2006 NFL season.

As a fan, I will cherish those two or three weeks of exciting football until the Porcelain Princess gets knocked back on the shelf...

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:02 PM | Comments (0)

August 4, 2006

Sports Q&A: Smelling Jeter; AFC Races

Calvin from Bronx, NY writes, "Avon will soon introduce a men's fragrance called "Driven," which will bear the name of New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter. Do you expect this product to sell?

You bet your Yankees baseball cap "Driven" will sell, but not as well as cyclist Floyd Landis' new cologne, "Yellow Jersey." Of course, Landis' cologne will be marketed to deer hunters as buck lure. And Jeter's teammate, Alex Rodriguez, is getting into the perfume business, as well, with his scent "Clutch.” "Clutch,” which boasts the scent of freshly-minted bills, will be chemically formulated to make its wearer smell best when it matters least.

Also in the fold is Barry Bonds, who, in conjunction with BALCO, is set to release "Juiced” in time for the 2006 holiday season. The fragrance, made of unknown ingredients, reportedly goes on so smoothly you won't even know your wearing it, especially if you accidentally spill some on you.

Jeter worked with his mother and sister to create the fragrance that will appeal to men and women alike. The scent is a blend of chilled grapefruit, clean oak moss, and spice, and its versatility will be emphasized. In addition to wearing it at night or in the daytime, you can also mix it with your favorite alcoholic beverage, clean your floors with it, or use it as a seasoning. It also efficiently repels mosquitoes. Avon plans to market the cologne to a very specific demographic: 12- to 42-year-olds who will buy anything with Derek Jeter's name on it.

The name "Driven” was chosen because it reflects Jeter's passion and desire on the baseball diamond. Driven is also Jeter's favorite movie starring both Sylvester Stallone and Burt Reynolds. Some of the rejected names for the cologne were "N.Y.P.U.,” "Smell the Glove,” and "Pol-0 for 4.”

Clark from Chevy Chase, MD writes, "Of all of last year's AFC division winners, which do you think are least likely to repeat in 2006?”

I think there's a possibility that three of the four division winners in 2006 will repeat. The Colts should easily win the AFC South division again, barring catastrophic injuries. The other divisions are much tighter. The Bengals will try to hold off the Steelers in the North, while the Ravens look to surprise. Miami makes a run at New England in the East, while in the AFC West, Denver hopes to top the Chiefs and Chargers again.

Of last year's division winners not named Indianapolis, New England is a strong candidate to win the AFC East again. Only a few years back, this division was one of the league's most balanced. This year, the Bills and Jets are coming off seasons that saw only one road win between them. And, both teams have new head coaches this year, Dick Jauron in Buffalo and Eric Mangini in New York. Quarterback issues, among other things, will keep these teams from challenging the Patriots.

In Buffalo, J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb will probably end up sharing duties, while running back Willis McGahee can talk a good game, but hasn't had one in about a year.

Chad Pennigton will start at QB for the Jets. That is, until the inevitable occurs: an injured shoulder caused by a rugged handshake. Mangini will be left wishing he could put Pennington's head on the bodies of Patrick Ramsey or Kellen Clemens.

That leaves the Dolphins as the only challengers to the Patriots' AFC East claim. Coach Nick Saban won't let trivial matters, such as dinner with the President of the United States, hinder Miami's attempt to unseat New England. He's got Daunte Culpepper at quarterback, who, even on one leg, is better than Gus Frerotte on two. And Culpepper will have a downfield target in Chris Chambers, who is physically much like Randy Moss, but without the issues. It's a tie, but the Pats win the conference record tiebreaker for the division crown.

In the AFC North, one would think the Steelers would be likely to repeat as division winners. There's only one problem: they didn't win the division, the Bengals did. The odds of a Bengals' repeat as division winner rest with the stability of Carson Palmer's left knee. If Palmer stays healthy, the Bengals will be in the division hunt. If he gets hurt, whether it be football-related or because of a scooter wreck, the Steelers control the division. That is, if Ben Roethlisberger can keep his helmet on. He's young, tough, and will probably be contractually obligated not to ride anything with two wheels.

This discussion wouldn't be complete without mentioning new Baltimore quarterback Steve McNair, who's played through more injuries than Palmer and Roethlisberger have suffered. The Ravens could possibly win the division, but only if McNair survives the season and Kyle Boller finds a permanent spot on the bench. More than likely, though, Baltimore will beat Pittsburgh and/or Cincinnati at some point in the season and possibly cost one of those teams the division. I'm guessing the Steelers take the division this year.

Denver won the AFC West last year by three games over the Chiefs, but the race should be much closer this year. Why? Because Kansas City running back Larry Johnson has to have a monster year, or he will be the most hated player in fantasy football. The pressure of living up to being the number one or two pick in most fantasy drafts has to be unnerving. Can Johnson handle it? Actually, there is no pressure to produce from a fantasy standpoint — he doesn't get paid for that. The pressure will be on Johnson to carry the full weight of the KC running game — he does get paid for that. Whatever his results, Johnson will have to do it without left tackle Willie Roaf, who retired.

The Chiefs will score, but will the addition of cornerback Ty Law improve the defense enough to make a difference?

Denver's running game will be potent as always, no matter who's running the ball, Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne. Former Green Bay receiver Javon Walker pouted his way out of a Packer uniform. He'll likely start ahead of Ashley Lelie, who was unhappy even before Walker showed up. The Broncos are always well-balanced, and have a leader at quarterback, Jake Plummer, who can take them to the playoffs, but no further. Denver will win the division, but only by a game over the Chiefs.

Mike from Carnegie, PA writes, "Cleveland Browns tight end Kellen Winslow claimed he is the best tight end in the league, even at only 90%. Is he?”

Ninety percent of Kellen Winslow? That equals approximately 30% of Antonio Gates, or 35% of Tony Gonzalez, or 40% of Todd Heap. Winslow hasn't even played enough games to make such bold statements. Of all the tight ends with five career catches, which is exactly how many Winslow has, he is better than 90% of those.

Get Your Questions Answered!

Do you have a question or comment? Need those tough tax law questions answered? Looking to cure that flesh-eating disease? Need a discreet steroid distributor? Then send your question/medical records/W2s/dilemma along with your name and hometown to [email protected]. You may get the answer you're looking for in the next column on Friday, August 25th.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:33 PM | Comments (1)

The Curse of Berea, OH

Maybe it started the day that Earnest Byner coughed up the ball on the 2-yard line against the Denver Broncos.

Maybe it started the day that Red Right 88 was called in the huddle against the Raiders.

Maybe it started the day that Art Modell secretly sat on a plane and decided to move the beloved Cleveland Browns franchise to Baltimore.

It had to start somewhere. Luck like this just doesn't come out of nowhere.

Even with a fresh start in 1999 as an expansion team, the luck continued to head south. Injuries, losses, infighting, and more doomed many a Cleveland team to an embarrassing record.

And that is where I think most of the problem lies — the fact that as soon as any new Browns player steps on a field that is remotely close to downtown Cleveland, he gets injured.

Tim Couch. Courtney Brown. Kellen Winslow. Braylon Edwards.

And now, LeCharles Bentley, who injured his left knee on the first day of training camp and will most likely miss the rest of the season.

Wait, that's not all folks. Just announced ... Ryan Tucker and Daylon McCutcheon will both have scopes done on their knees and will each miss three to four weeks, but will probably be ready for the start of the season.

What's next? That has to be the question on the mind of Browns executives and coaches. What could possibly go wrong next to put a wrench in the plans for this season? An injury to starting quarterback Charlie Frye, perhaps?

The thing about the Browns is that the fans love them, despite the fact that they are losers. They are very much like Woody Allen in that we see all of the team's flaws, but root for them nevertheless. We know they have little or no shot at getting to the Super Bowl, but we're going to cheer them anyway. They are Cleveland's lovable losers, just as long as they don't lose too much. That's where the problems start.

And with the exception of one playoff appearance since 1999, losing is just about all that the Cleveland Browns have been good at. Some of it you can blame on the talent (Tim Couch), some of it you can blame on the coaching (Butch Davis), but the rest of it, I like to blame on the Curse of Berea, OH — the Bermuda Triangle of football injuries that takes a star impact Browns player to the sideline every training camp and preseason.

And so it began this season with LeCharles Bentley being carted off the field after only the first day in training camp. As a fan, depression immediately set in as I prepared for another season of mishaps, mayhem, and more from the Browns.

Just when I thought there was nothing that could get me pumped up about the Browns this season, I pull into the parking lot of the local Berea, OH library this morning to write an article about the NFL, an article that I planned to describe how depressing it is to be a cursed Cleveland fan rooting for a cursed Browns team.

There in the parking lot is a van that I thought must have been carrying fans of the Grateful Dead. It was at least 20-years-old, greenish in a way, and there was writing all over the windows...

"Toast the Browns Backers - Port St. Lucie Florida - GO BROWNS."

And as I looked at the van knowing that someone drove from Florida to Berea, OH to watch the Browns practice in training camp, I knew that the team, nor the city, were actually cursed.

In fact, we're all actually quite lucky.

Posted by Vince Grzegorek at 9:10 PM | Comments (2)

August 3, 2006

2006 NFL Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

Last Year

There was a time when the Cincinnati Bengals were broken-hearted, and love wasn't much of a friend of theirs. But with the arrivals of Carson Palmer and Marvin Lewis, the tables have turned and the Bengals and them losing ways have parted. They won the AFC North and were on pace for a prolonged playoff run until a freak injury to Palmer left them cryin' — like that Aerosmith song. With a very difficult schedule in place and incessant off-field issues, the Bengals will find out that love is sweet misery in 2006 if they don't stay focused.

What We Learned From Last Year

How important is stability for a franchise, you ask?

Well after suffering through head coaches like David Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick LeBeau and laboring with subpar quarterbacks David Klingler, Jeff Blake, Neil O'Donnell, Akili Smith, and Jon Kitna, it was imperative for the Bengals to finally find some consistency with Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer.

The way Palmer finished the 2004 season with 11 touchdowns in his final four starts, the general feeling was that he was ready to blossom into that long-awaited hero who could take the Bengals from the basement back to the main floor.

Palmer was not only outstanding in the early going, he was instrumental in the Bengals' success in 2005. He led a young team in search of confidence to a 5-1 record in the first six weeks, throwing 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions in that span.

In 2000, the Bengals drafted Peter Warrick right after their terrific tandem of Carl Pickens and Darnay Scott left town, but Warrick provided only four mediocre seasons. Combined with a long-term injury in 2004 and the unwillingness to take a pay cut prior to the 2005 season, the Bengals parted ways with the underachiever.

But the Bengals entailed one of the league's deepest crops of wide receivers and took the hit in stride.

Pro Bowl showboat Chad Johnson's statistics continued to increment as he reached a career-high with 1,432 receiving yards while T.J. Houshmandzadeh got a second season of full-time reps and upped his touchdown total to seven. There were whispers that this was finally the season Kelley Washington would break out, but third-round pick Chris Henry stole his limelight right from training camp, earning five starts and tallying seven touchdowns.

The Bengals were protected up front by one of the league's best offensive line units. Tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones are the best duo in the business and running back Rudi Johnson had no trouble finding open lanes.

He's not the fastest, flashiest, or most explosive running back in the AFC, but Johnson is solid, reliable, and consistent. Aside from a couple of subpar January games, Johnson's game-low was 65 yards. All things considered, that's pretty good.

But he was still spelled quite a bit on third downs and passing situations, as Chris Perry caught 51 passes out of the backfield, fourth-best among running backs in the NFL.

While the Bengals pounded teams with their multi-faceted offense, they didn't always win the war on defense.

Marvin Lewis continued to preach opportunistic defensive tactics as the Bengals have climbed the turnover ratio rankings each and every season since he arrived. When Lewis took over, the Bengals were a -15. They incremented to +2, then +4, then a league-best +24 last season.

Cornerback Deltha O'Neal led the way with 10 interceptions, while Tory James and rookie linebacker Odell Thurman added another five each. While the cornerbacking was good, the rest of the defense had glaring holes.

A torn labrum in the shoulder of sophomore safety Madieu Williams was a painful loss in late September. In his rookie season, Williams' versatile skills were used at several positions and his stout run protection was crucial. Without him, the production from remaining safeties Ifeanyi Ohalete and Kevin Kaesviharn was simply inadequate.

The Bengals had a tough time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, accumulating a measly 28 sacks (30th in NFL). Justin Smith led the way with six and although Robert Geathers emerged as a threat at times, the Bengals had no real menace on among their front four.

43% of the team's sacks came from the linebackers or the secondary and it grew evident that when the Bengals needed a critical third-down stop, more often than not, they couldn't get it. Only the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills had a worse defensive third-down conversion percentage.

Part of the problem was that the defensive lacked the strength and bulk at the tackle position and opponents could open up paths for their running backs with ease, leading to shorter third-down situations.

Among the linebackers, Thurman struggled with gap assignments early on in the season but was clearly a playmaker. He outplayed first-round pick David Pollack, who had a nose for pressuring the quarterback, but had an average year otherwise.

The Bengals could smell a Super Bowl last season, but an unlucky injury suffocated their chances. The pieces are seemingly in place for another run, but chemistry concerns and a difficult schedule stand in the way.

This Year

With the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots all losing key players to free agency, it looked like there would be an opening for the Bengals to step into the role as the AFC's frontrunner.

The opportunity is still obtainable, but a laundry list of off-field personnel issues has raised a few red flags about whether this team is mentally capable of that role.

Odell Thurman, Chris Henry, A.J. Nicholson, Frostee Rucker, and Matthias Askew have all been in trouble with either drugs or the law (or both). Thurman has already been suspended for the first four games of the season, while Henry might have to sit out some time, as well.

Marvin Lewis has a penchant for plucking players with boundless potentials and off-field issues. The plan worked well last year, when the team selected Odell Thurman with the 48th pick, after alcohol and discipline problems dropped him into the second round, and selected Chris Henry with the 83rd pick, after maturity and character concerns saw him slip to the third round.

But Lewis may get burned for sticking his hand in the cookie jar once again this year. Nicholson and Rucker are rookies and have risked being released because of their behavior. The better teams in the NFL don't just blow third- and fifth-round picks.

Even so, none of this deterred the Bengals from spending another third-round pick on yet another player with drug troubles as they drafted linebacker Ahmad Brooks in the supplemental draft. The move is quite possibly to send a message to both Thurman and Nicholson.

To this point, as Portland Trail Blazer-like of a group of miscreants they may have, there have been no death blows dealt to this team but all of these distractions must cease from here on in.

Thurman's loss will shift around the linebackers for the first four games but the team is lucky to have a versatile backup like Landon Johnson around. Stalwart veteran Brian Simmons will likely move into the middle, a position he anchored in the past, and Johnson will fill in for him on the weak side.

Upfront, the Bengals have made some changes, most notably by signing defensive tackle Sam Adams. If he is motivated, he should scratch the itch, but he was very uninspired in Buffalo last season, which led to a lot of bench time for him. He should take some pressure off of John Thornton and if Matthias Askew has had as good of an offseason as everyone says he has (minus the resisting arrest incident), the tackle rotation should be beefed up.

Continuing the theme of solidifying the run defense, strong safety Dexter Jackson was targeted in free agency. He is a steep upgrade in run defense, but does not have great range. With the return of Madieu Williams, in combination with those two key signings, the run defense will get a shot in the arm.

But the Bengals failed to address their mild pass rush in the offseason, which will be a concern throughout the season, especially against the contenders. If they can't manufacture pressure defensively, they will be forced to keep their scoring weapons on the sideline.

On offense, they return all of their starters from last year. The lethal unit rarely turned over the ball, with a franchise-low six fumbles and allowed a franchise-low 21 sacks.

Expect much of the same production, if not better, as concerns about keeping the cohesive offensive line together past this season have all but been put to bed.

Although it doesn't really need to be said, the Bengals don't go anywhere without Palmer this season. With backup Jon Kitna leaving to Detroit via free agency, the Bengals are not equipped with a backup who can lead them for a long period of time.

A strong case can be made that this team is the best in the AFC, but they will have to prove it each and every week. They have the toughest schedule in the NFL and considering the opponents they have to go through, they better not take anything for granted.

Over/Under: 9

The Bengals play four of the other five AFC teams that made the playoffs last season, they square off with the NFC South and the AFC West. They are the best team in this division talent-wise, but the Browns and Ravens are much improved and the Steelers will continue to be a threat. They play: @KC, CLE, @PIT, NE, @TB, CAR, ATL, @BAL, SD, @NO, @CLE, BAL, OAK, @IND, @DEN, and PIT.

Fantasy Sleeper

As troubled off the field as he is, Chris Henry has been a stud on it. He is worth a late round selection because the Bengals love to attack through the air, and should Chad Johnson or T.J. Houshmandzadeh miss any stretch of time, he will be filling in. Also, since the Bengals don't have a threat at tight-end, they look to pick out wide receivers in the red zone.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 6:37 PM | Comments (1)

What a Putz

Even knowing as much as I do about baseball, there are still certain things I just don't get.

One of them is why players wear sunglasses on top of their hats while in the field, and another is how the Oakland Athletics could possibly have let reliever Eric Plunk get away during the 1989 season, when they were destined to acquire hurler Joe Klink the following year.

That baseball fans missed the chance to tune in and see Klink and Plunk warming simultaneously in the bullpen ranks right behind Thurman Munson and Josh Gibson on baseball's great list of "what ifs."

Think about it: not only would the duo have been a commentator's dream, not only would they have delighted fans, but they would've undoubtedly had every auto parts maker and mechanic in the Bay area beating each other with mufflers over sponsorship rights.

But it wasn't meant to be.

Luckily, life is full of second chances and in a sport where names can sometimes be half the fun, this is a great time to be a baseball fan.

Consider the fortune of Florida Marlins fans. Yes, the club's come down to Earth after its surprisingly hot start, but every night the six fans sitting near the home bullpen at Dolphins Stadium get to holler some pretty funny stuff.

Never mind that the team already boasts Dan Uggla (who's actually a little bit uggla), and Reggie Abercrombie (I've never seen him in street clothes). But when Rolaids brings you a pitching change, it's really more like comic relief.

Randy Messenger hasn't exactly delivered with his 1-6 record, though rookie Anibal Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise, and teamed with fellow rookie teammate Hanley Ramirez could soon have the Marlins devouring opponents.

With an ERA of 6.43, Renyel Pinto hasn't given Florida's staff much of a lift, but luckily, he hasn't spontaneously combusted on rear contact either.

And speaking of crashes, in a sport with as much superstition as baseball, what do you think manager Joe Girardi's comfort level is when he gets on the phone and says he wants Taylor Tankersly to get up?

I really hope I live to see the day when a manager in a tight spot decides to go to his bullpen ace and says with a straight face, "Get me Tankersly."

Then again, how much worse could it be to say that than to have a mess on the base paths and call on a Putz. That's what they do in Seattle, where closer J.J. is helping to make good on the missed Klink and Plunk opportunity of almost two decades prior.

Never mind that Putz insists his name is pronounced like "puts," as in, "puts down the side." But as renowned sportswriter Peter Schmuck once noted: "Yeah, and my name's Shmuuk."

Besides, there's nothing interesting about "Puts," but a Putz with a high-90s fastball, 22 saves, and a 2.32 ERA, now that's a commodity. Add it to the fact that his set up man is Emiliano Fruto, and we're really cooking with oil.

Seattle isn't a great team and shouldn't be in too many relevant games down the stretch in 2006, but with their youth, the combination of Fruto and Putz should be good for years to come.

And probably good for a few tears of laughter too, assuming Tim McCarver ever does color for one of their games.

When it comes to names, that guy's such a putz.

Posted by Aaron Miller at 5:52 PM | Comments (0)

August 2, 2006

Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years (Pt. 2)

Continued from part one, Re-Draft, Playball in Five Years.

If you haven't figured out by now, the Universe Draft (forgive the corny name) is a list of the top 30 young players currently at the big league level. By "young player," I mean someone who will contribute at their prime in five years.

In five years, most of today's young players will be around the ages 26-31. During that time period, most players reach a peak — whether the stay at that level depends on conditioning, injuries, and other factors (i.e. performance enhancers ... or lack thereof).

The first five picks were as follows:

1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon

Four of the top five players chosen were pitchers. Much of that has to do with the great young pitching that dominates the game today, but it also has to do with the lack of great young position players. It seems that young position players are blossoming much later than today's young pitchers.

In the previous column, I had Bud Selig select ping pong balls to select the order of the picks. Though it was "random," I awarded the top five picks to those teams for a specific reason.

The Yankees and Red Sox deserve top picks because they are what keeps baseball interesting half the time. They create drama, they spend money, and did I mention they create drama? For example, the past few days were filled with Red Sox drama because the Sox didn't make a move! These two teams could literally make no transactions and still cause a stir.

The Cubs deserve a top pick because, well, you know ... the whole "96 years since a World Series win" thing.

Now you're probably wondering what makes the Devil Rays and Marlins so special. Well, I want to reward teams who have good scouting systems. Never mind a cheap owner, crappy fans, and a mediocre history. The Devil Rays are good at developing young talent. Just look in their outfield — they have Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes, and Carl Crawford. It's greatly difficult to get three guys who are that good and that young from the same farm system. But remember Josh Hamilton, their former firs-rounder? He's coming back from personal problems and he could add to their depth in their outfield, as well.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have had two fire sales in the past 10 years. And they can still boast a core of Dontrelle Willis, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Josh Willingham, and Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins' payroll this year is $14.3 million — and no, this isn't a typo. They have nearly a .500 record and are paying their 25 players less than the single salary of five New York Yankees. Now that's incredible.

The next five picks will be rewarded to five teams who I think have done a great job in running their organization in one aspect or another.

6. Oakland Athletics — Billy Beane and Moneyball have revolutionized the way we see the game. He gets his due at No. 6.

7. Atlanta Braves — It was a big blow losing future GM Dayton Moore to the Kansas City Royals, but nevertheless, a decade of winning should buy them a top-10 pick.

8. Detroit Tigers — They deserve credit for putting together that pitching staff they have right now. They stuck with a few young guns through rough times (Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson), developed an ace (Justin Verlander), and found a old vet to stabilize the youngsters (Kenny Rogers).

9. St. Louis Cardinals — The Cards found Albert Pujols. That, in itself, puts them in the top 10 in this columnist's mind.

10. Chicago White Sox — The defending champs are good all-around, but not great at anything. It might be what makes them good, but their pitching should get them through the next few years with exciting playoff runs.

So we'll continue the draft here with the A's on the clock. We all know what Billy Beane wants — cheap on-base percentage and underrated outs. In other words, someone who won't demand so much, but perform at a high level.

We'll discard the annoying ESPN announcers for the next 25 picks — for all our sakes. Plus, Harold Reynolds will show up to do a personal broadcast for us. If you haven't heard, Reynolds was fired from ESPN for sexual harassment. Now come to think of it, maybe we should leave him out. But then again, we did let womanizing GM Steve Phillips take center stage for a few picks...

***

6. Athletics

"Here are our options boys: Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, and David Wright. There are tons of good young pitchers out there, but there aren't too many guys who get on base often," Beane says.

But with three solid hitters on the board, it becomes a matter of who has the best glove.

"Take Cabrera out of the mix, because Mauer and Wright are superb at their positions with the glove," Beane says. "And solid third basemen come along way more often than superstar catchers."

There have been five catchers who revolutionized the position — Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, Roy Campenella, and Yogi Berra. Mauer is the next in line.

The pick: Joe Mauer

7. Braves

We all know the Braves are known for their pitching. And everyone wants to get back to their glory days — or at least I do. I fantasize about returning to my little league team, striking out 21 batters in seven innings, then eating orange slices afterward ... yeah ... those were the days...

Enough of my fantasizing — it might get out of hand when Brooke Burke enters the fantasy. So we'll go on with the Braves pick.

The pitching available here is superb — Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, and Carlos Zambrano.

Braves GM John Schuerholz has always looked for guys with control — like Santana. And he's never liked players with volatile emotions, like Zambrano. But Verlander look far too much like John Smoltz to pass up. With a 100 mph heater and a great feel for the game, the pick here is Verlander.

The pick: Justin Verlander

8. Tigers

With their own player, Verlander, just taken off the board, that makes this pick easy. They haven't had a great offensive team in years, and with the genius of GM Dave Dombrowski (he doesn't get enough credit — he knows how to build a pitching staff), they won't have trouble getting enough pitching.

So the pick here is the next Brooks Robinson.

The pick: David Wright

9. Cardinals

This is where things get interesting. You have Santana, who could get hurt after he hits age 30 — and he's already 27. Then you have Cabrera, who is probably their best bet. But in a short series, there's nothing better than three front-line starters to get you through, so then we have Jered Weaver and Dontrelle Willis to consider.

What's amazing about Willis is that he's only 24. He's already done so much in the league, yet Willis still has a ways to go in becoming a great pitcher.

The Cards have never been gamblers, and Cabrera looks like a sure thing at 23-years-old and no injury problems.

The pick: Miguel Cabrera

10. White Sox

Who is the most unhittable starting pitcher in the game right now? Many would say Liriano, but I'd take Santana over Liriano — for now. Santana has proven he can stay healthy, and at only 27-years-old, it looks like he can have the longevity needed to stay that way for five more years.

The White Sox know from their past that they can win without a great offense (look at last year), and Ozzie Guillen knows how to find ways to score. But you can't teach pitching, and these teams are getting scared that they're going to be ousted by a team with two great front-line pitchers.

The pick: Johan Santana

***

There are still a handful of potential superstars left, including Carlos Zambrano (already the NL's best pitcher), Dontrelle Willis, and Jose Reyes.

There were a lot of doubters on the Red Sox pick of Felix Hernandez (who was later traded to the Yanks), but trust me, folks — Hernandez is for real. In a recent ESPN the Magazine, Eric Byrnes said he never wanted to face Hernandez again. Most hitters aren't too afraid of seeing young pitchers, but Hernandez's stuff is that filthy.

The next five picks will be as follows:

11. New York Mets — Props for developing Jose Reyes and David Wright. But they drop to 11 after trading away Scott Kazmir.

12. Cleveland Indians — They are finding a nice combination of players to fill their lineup, but these guys can't seem to win. It's like the movie Major League — except their owner gave them everything and the team did nothing. But still, they get this pick for finding their share of gold.

13. Minnesota Twins — They always find a way to win, and nowadays, they've got Santana and Liriano to pave the way. One more solid starter, and this team might be unbeatable in the playoffs. Plus, the Twinkies found both Liriano and Mauer — wow.

14. Toronto Blue Jays — J.P. Ricciardi was supposed to be the next Billy Beane. But instead, he goes out and spent money on guys who aren't exactly performing (A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan). But he's trying, and ownership is giving them support. For that, their in the top half of the draft — but barely. As long as he stops going after players with initials as their first name, I think he'll be fine.

15. Los Angeles Angels — Ever notice that the Angels have the third highest payroll in baseball? Me neither. They have a good team, but for $100 million, they should have a better team. But still, it's the middle of the pack for the Angels.

Stay tuned for five more picks next week, and check out pick Nos. 1-5 in the archives.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 8:08 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Over/Under, AFC-Style

With the NFL season fast approaching, now is the time to load up your offshore accounts, put your bookie back on speed dial, and plan that mid-September trip to Vegas. Nobody is more dialed in at the moment than me, who has spent the last few months gearing up for this coming football season. Today, I begin with a little game of over/under, starting with the AFC.

Normally, I back up my gambling advice with my own money, but I won't be playing a single one of these suggestions. The NFL is way too volatile to warrant tying up significant cash for a couple of months at even money odds. Still, I have given each of these numbers due thought, and I'm bold enough to predict that playing all of them equally will have positive expected value at seasons end. (Note: the amount of juice is a huge consideration in making these plays, but for the sake of making this article readable for non-gamblers, I have disregarded it and instead adjusted the lines accordingly.)

Two things to keep in mind here. First off, preseason games haven't even begun yet. Inevitably, injuries are going to occur that will shake things up a bit. Secondly, just because I pick a team to go over their given win total doesn't mean that I expect them to win a lot more games than the listed total, and vice versa for the unders. Most of these will land very close to the number. If anything, I am steering you guys clear of the sucker sides. Good luck if you play any of these.

Baltimore Over/Under: 8 Wins

I pegged the Ravens as a potential sleeper in my column a few months ago. I think the defense is poised for a bounce-back year, assuming Ray Lewis still has ample fuel in that seemingly bottomless gas tank of his. Whether it's Kyle Boller or Steve McNair taking the snaps, the offense should improve a bit from last year. Jamal Lewis should have shed the prison fat by now, but even if he hasn't, Mike Anderson should be adequate carrying the ball. I'm expecting the Steelers and Bengals to regress a bit this year, and the Ravens should benefit.

The play — Over

Buffalo Over/Under: 6 Wins

I have to look at this one from purely a contrarian standpoint. There is no way I can rationalize Buffalo winning more than six games. Dick Jauron's the coach, Kelly Holcomb is likely the QB, and oh that draft, that amazing draft. Everyone is already slotting this group into the top five of next year's draft. It can't be that easy.

The play — Over

Cincinnati Over/Under: 9 Wins

Carson Palmer's remarkable return from major knee surgery almost seems too good to be true. I really hope they aren't rushing him back for his sake and the sake of this hard luck franchise. The depth behind Palmer is downright scary. Anthony Wright, anyone? I like the team, but I can't recommend the over given Palmer's uncertain health status.

The play — Under

Cleveland Over/Under: 6.5 Wins

I've gone back and forth on this total a few times. It really seems like this team is on the right track. They seem to have a good mix of young talent and solid veteran leadership. They also have the benefit of a last place schedule, and they should be in virtually every game they play. Besides, who else besides me thinks Charlie Frye can win seven games as a starter in the NFL? Come on.

The play — Over

Denver Over/Under: 10 Wins

I don't like what Denver did this offseason at all. The old adage that any RB can gain 1,000 yards in Denver's offense will really be put to the test this season as Ron Dayne will be the feature back whenever Tatum Bell suffers his annual nagging injury. They didn't lose that many key guys, but standing pat in this league after a strong season can be a recipe for disaster. I thought it was cocky to take Jay Cutler in the draft when they could have added quality elsewhere. They aren't as deep as they apparently think they are. I think their schedule is going to eat them up. 7-9, 8-8 would not shock me at all.

The play — Under

Houston Over/Under 5.5 wins

The last two years, I thought this team was going to make the jump from door mat to fringe playoff contender. And the last two years, this team has made me look stupid. Needless to say, I'm very frightened to endorse this bunch again. Past seasons aside, Houston had a pretty large personnel turnover this offseason, as well as a coaching change. These factors, along with a surprisingly hard schedule for a last-place team, will make it difficult for them to enter the playoff race this season, but I still expect them improve a good amount.

The play — Over

Indianapolis Over/Under: 11.5 Wins

Normally with a public, name team like the Colts, I'd automatically recommend the under and move on. It's tougher in this case, though. I certainly don't think this team is a lock for home-field advantage in the AFC, and they have likely regressed a bit from last year. Still, they will probably be favored in every game they play, with the potential exceptions being back-to-back trips to Denver and New England. It is a tough call, but I refuse to endorse a team whose whole value rests on the health of one player. The thought of Indy without Peyton Manning scares me too much.

The play — Under

Jacksonville Over/Under: 9 Wins

They don't get a ton of respect because they are as far from flashy as any team that wears teal and plays in Florida could possibly be, but year after year, they perform well. I don't expect this year's version to be any different. The defense is solid per usual, and they took a couple of fliers at the offensive line position that could end up paying large dividends. I also liked their selection of Maurice Drew a good amount. He's a nice hedge for the oft-injured Fred Taylor. If Indy falters, Jacksonville should be ready to pounce.

The play — Over

Kansas City Over/Under: 9.5 Wins

Herm Edwards + Really bad defense + Really good division = No thank you.

The play — Under

Miami Over/Under: 9 Wins

The Fish were a very trendy pick right after they traded for Daunte Culpepper, and have cooled only slightly since. I was pretty high on them before the Culpepper deal, but I'm no fan of his and thus am now completely turned off of this squad. At this point, I think Miami is being given too much credit, and I don't really think there is much to differentiate them from Buffalo at the moment. I do like their schedule — the AFC East could give the NFC North a run for its worst division in football crown this season.

The play — Under

New England Over/Under: 10.5 Wins

I'm really torn on this one. New England is always going to be over valued for what they have already accomplished so far this decade so long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still in the mix. On the other hand, somebody has to win the AFC East, and I've already said that I don't think it's going to be Miami. I think this one ends up within one game of the number on either side. As a contrarian, I've got to go against the name team.

The play — Under

New York Over/Under: 6 Wins

It'd be easy to simply suggest the under and move on here. On paper, the Jets look as bad as any team in the league. New and unproven head coach, uncertain/flat ugly QB situation, and an aging star running back. The list goes on. Looking at their schedule, it appears likely they will only be favored three, maybe four times. This feels like a really obvious under, so naturally I lean over, but you are a braver person than me if you play it.

The play — Over

Oakland Over/Under: 6 Wins

Perennial underachievers with Aaron Brooks at quarterback, Randy Moss as the star, and Art Shell steering the ship. I couldn't write a script this combustible if I tried — yet I am intrigued. The defense has added some speed, but it is still a work in progress. The offense will go with the health of Randy Moss and the mental state of Aaron Brooks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland exceeds expectations, but it would take the perfect storm for this to happen. Way too many contingencies for my money in a division as tough as the AFC West.

The play — Under

Pittsburgh Over/Under: 10.5 Wins

I refuse to make a case for playing the over on the defending Super Bowl champs. Especially when they appear to have regressed and play in a division with two teams on the come. I won't do it, and neither should you.

The play — Under

San Diego Over/Under: 9 Wins

My pick to win the AFC West. They came up short last season in large part because their schedule was brutal. They didn't have the type of offseason that normally draws me towards teams, but their talent is young which makes me less concerned about their lack of action. The loss of Drew Brees doesn't concern me. I was never really impressed with him, and while I don't love Philip Rivers he should be able to give the Chargers what Brees did. I think they win the division and I also think they will need more than nine wins to do it. So...

The play — Over

Tennessee Over/Under: 5.5 Wins

The Titans are a mess. They completely botched the Steve McNair situation. Now they have to decide whether they are going to feign competing this year with Billy Volek at quarterback, or concede that they have no shot right now by letting Vince Young get some reps. My guess is that Volek starts the season, struggles, and Vince Young is the starter following the Week 7 bye. He is far from ready to play this level, but what choice do they have. Not enough talent on this team to play the over given all the unknowns.

The play — Under

That's it for the AFC. Keep in mind that, I bet in a contrarian manner, which means I almost always go against conventional wisdom when making my plays. There is no such thing as easy money in sports wagering, and my picks are no exception. Of these plays, I consider the Jacksonville over and the Pittsburgh under to be the strongest. If you are determined to follow these plays, I'd go with those. I'll be back in two weeks with my NFC version of over/under.

You can view all of Ryan Hojnacki's views on sports wagering at his website.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 7:34 PM | Comments (0)

The Embattled LPGA Commish

Carolyn Bivens has been the Commissioner of the LPGA Tour for just around 10 months. She was a head-scratching choice at the onset of her term considering her lack of golf experience, despite some obvious strengths coming from the marketing world. Despite the quiet murmurs and questions, many at Daytona Beach headquarters and the players themselves stood behind their new chief with the hopes that she would be able to continue driving the Tour forward.

Nearly a year later, the quiet devotion to Carolyn Bivens appears to be evaporating quickly. A series of blunders has embarrassed Bivens and made her look extremely green, even as a rookie in what is admittedly a difficult job. From the attempts to have more rights over visual and print media to the most recent situation with the ShopRite Classic, the problems have run the gamete and been very public.

Bivens' work style could be branded as stubborn or principled, depending on which side of the fence you stand. She has continually defended her actions in the name of making the Tour a stronger "brand." Citing stronger television ratings and slightly stronger gate receipts, Bivens is convinced that what she is doing is working despite the bumpy road. Tell that to the Tournament Owners Association, many in the media, and some outspoken players, though, and they will scoff.

The reality of the situation is that the rub of Bivens' embattlement lies in the definition of success for the LPGA Tour. For critics of Bivens, their definition is a modest amount of progress in terms of purse size and fan exposure while maintaining assurances from the LPGA Tour that their loyalty over the years will be valued and not forgotten as the Tour grows.

For Bivens, though, her definition appears to be radically different. She wants to make an immediate mark and spark massive growth with drastic moves — with or without those who comprise the Tour's past. Obviously, she recognizes the potential arrival of the Golden Age of the LPGA Tour and wants to do what she feels will lead to that Promised Land. The problem is that she appears to be more and more alone in feeling that what she is doing will lead directly to that result.

Bivens has made seemingly unilateral decisions that come across as directives that a Fortune 500 CEO would make. The result has been a lack of continuity, a string of resignations, and a shellshocked constituency that cannot help but wonder who made her Queen. Coming from the corporate world, I imagine that it has to be difficult for Carolyn Bivens (not unlike PGA Tour Commish Tim Finchem) to remove herself from her marketing instincts. The industry is very cutthroat and relationship loyalties are flimsy. Words like "brand" and "positioning" and "initiative" are like prepositions in the business lexicon, but are nothing short of Babel in golfspeak. So, really, to quote a famous movie, what we have here is a failure to communicate.

Both sides of this brewing conflict have to learn to understand one another if the LPGA Tour is to actually grow because of its administration, not in spite of it. For their part, critics of Bivens do have to realize that some of what she has suggested is actually in the best interests of the LPGA Tour. Shuffling the schedule, changing what defines a major championship, and cross-branding the Tour are not necessarily bad ideas in their own right.

Bivens, though, has to change her management style and the way that she presents herself. She has to realize that the TOA, the media, and the players are all needed partners and allies in what she hopes to accomplish. Without those three, she will be doomed to infamy and utter failure. The "take it or leave it" approach does not work in a niche organization whose culture is based around tepid growth. She has to nurture and preserve the many loyal Tour relationships in order to get the results she wants without so much backlash and embarrassment.

Most important, though, Bivens needs to remember that she is just one member of an enormous team, and she certainly is not the most important. After all, it is the actual golf that is the most important thing. It is Annika Sorenstam, Paula Creamer, and Michelle Wie that will do the hardest work in bringing people to tournaments, attracting corporate sponsors, and increasing prize pools.

This tour is rich in talent and that is what Bivens is selling here above all else — she is no part of that pitch. Her job is made easier, hell, even made possible because of how far women's golf has come in terms of talent. If that point becomes lost on Bivens, then she may completely lose the Tour — and her job.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 5:21 PM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2006

Return to Glory: Rebuilding Team USA

As our nation's best footballers return from their June humanitarian mission to Germany (during which they donated goals and penalties as if they were food vouchers in Iraq), it has become increasingly and more painfully clear that the greatest nation on earth is being marginalized on the international athletic stage by a self-induced and overwhelmingly problematic penchant for putting self-serving personal glory over the greater good of the team and the country that it represents.

Focusing solely on USA Soccer, the statistical whooping we took during this year's World Cup is almost too thorough to believe — 0.33 goals scored per game (only Trinidad-Tobago scored fewer), a tourney-worst 4 total shots on goal (by comparison, Portugal has the most with 51), 21 shots total (second worst, only Tunisia had less), 2.0 goals allowed per game (only four teams were worse), etc., etc., etc. Bottom line: team USA, ranked number five in the world heading into World Cup event, has a lot of 'splainin' to do (eat your heart out, Ricky Ricardo) over the next four years.

While pointing out the inadequacies of coach Bruce Arena and his charges is certainly a subject that could and rightly should take up more than one paragraph of any missive on America's international failures in sport in recent years, those aforementioned failures are not unique to the soccer program and, frankly, the expectations are far lower in that realm as opposed to, say, the USA's basketball program. I smell segue...

From the original Dream Team (Olympic gold medal winning Team USA, 1992) to the "Dirty Dozen" (World Basketball Championships bronze medal winning Team USA, 1998) to the most recent debacle I like to call the original Creamed Team (Olympic also-ran Team USA, 2004), USA men's basketball has been on a collision-course with mediocrity.

Many pundits claim that this is a direct result of improved international competition, a point that cannot be totally dismissed judging by the recent successes of Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Steve Nash, Yao Ming, Tony Parker, etc. Others like to point to the minimalist attitude today's great American NBA stars seem to have for the importance of international competition. The vast majority claims it is a combination of those two points that has acted as the momentum swinging the pendulum from a position of dominance back towards the rest of the international pack.

Being a glass half full kind of guy, this freelance writer doesn't see a whole lot of value in assessing the why's and how's of our nation's hoop failures on the international stage. Sure, those are very valid points, but I'm not so sure that Kobe, T-Mac, K.G., and Shaq would have made the difference in 2004 and I certainly can't with a straight face that Italy's Massimo Bulleri is every bit as valuable a sixth man as Richard Jefferson was to his nation's squad. Quite frankly, I see the problem as being a simple case of knowing one's role in life, and, in this case, basketball.

Contrary to popular belief, the 2004 team did not lack in star power. It included Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Amare Stoudemire, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and those seven names alone could dominate any collaboration of current players you throw their way. Add to that list Stephon Marbury, Shawn Marion, Jefferson, and Lamar Odom and you certainly have a laundry list of adequate hoops icons that should have worn the stars and stripes with pride on their way to gold medal glory. Mix in a legendary coach and a case could well be made that this group should be nigh unbeatable. It is no wonder that the Americans went into the tourney feeling good about their chances, even without a handful of the biggest names in the game on the roster.

But history annals will show that for every Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas that hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy, there was a John Paxson, Jerry Sichting, Byron Scott, and Rick Mahorn. The big names grab the headlines, to be sure, but equally as important are the little guys who dive on loose balls, the big guys who keep offensive rebounds alive with hustling tips, and those contributors who give of themselves far beyond the measure of the ending box score. Our recent international entrants don't have such cast members and this, I submit, is the reason for their failures. The answer isn't more star power, it's less — as long as those lesser components know their roles and are capable of playing them on the international stage.

Someone much smarter and significantly more influential than I must have picked up on this last point (finally), as a once-over of the current 15-man short list for Team USA features a handful of such willing and able role players. Defensive specialists, outside threats, extraordinary rebounders — all previous voids that led to embarrassing defeat — are now set to be filled, a certain positive development for the recently maligned program. That said, below is a run down of the projected members of the latest edition of Dream Teamers and the player and skill-set they replace on the roster.

Returning Cast

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets — One of four holdovers from Greece's debacle, 'Melo is another two years older and should not spend this trip floundering on the bench. Anthony will hit jumpers all day over the shorter international forwards and his superior athleticism and explosiveness will be no match for any Euro with size that is defending him.

LeBron James, Cavaliers — No explanation necessary ... Larry Brown let his loyalty to those who he felt paid their dues spoil King James' debut in international play, under-utilizing the all-around star power of LeBron. Coach K will not make that mistake.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns — Not the same explosive player that he was two years back, but the rest of the world doesn't know that, since he barely played in Greece. Amare has something to prove and his improved mid-range game and knack for shot-blocking make him a formidable foe for the competition to have to deal with.

Dwyane Wade, Heat — Got some PT in Greece, but he wasn't the same D-Wade back then as he is now. His confidence is at an all-time high and his ability to control a game and get the hoop will lead to lots of open jumpers and highlight reel finishes once the games count.

Newbies

Gilbert Arenas, Wizards — Arenas has come into his own in the past two seasons and is now one of the premier outside threats and combo guards on the planet. He replaces Stephon Marbury on the roster, which a good thing considering Starbury's me-first outlook on life.

Chris Paul, Hornets — The true point guard that the team has needed, Paul's speed and court vision will create an up-tempo pace that international opponents can't defend. He replaces the venerable Allen Iverson adequately and brings something A.I. didn't — unselfishness.

Elton Brand, Clippers — Brand proved himself as one of the league's elite last season and should carry that momentum into international play, giving the U.S. a very effective low-block threat. While Brand is stepping in for Tim Duncan, not much is lost in the grand scheme of things as the two exhibit similar strengths and Brand contributes a youth and passion that is hard to measure with numbers alone without giving up too many points and rebounds.

Shane Battier, Rockets — The first of a couple of players that may leave many scratching their heads, Battier brings to the table the intangibles and unselfishness that any successful team needs. Shane is a scrapper, can hit the open shot, and is a perfect fit alongside the other superstars on the roster and frankly is the type of player that the USA teams have sorely missed in recent years. He replaces Lamar Odom on the roster, and that is what you call addition through subtraction even without factoring the handful of hustle points and boards Battier will collect.

Bruce Bowen, Spurs — Part two of the "what have we learned" department, Bowen is the shut-down defender that America's opponents have not had to deal with since the mid-'90s, frankly. With the international game's saturation of scoring two-guards, Bowen should prove to be the tonic that holds opponents in check, especially in those crucial late-game moments. One worry is the contact Bruce generates on defense, but if nothing else at least the defense has some chops to it this time around. Bowen takes the roster spot of Richard Jefferson and more than makes up for the athleticism lost with his hard-nosed toughness.

Chris Bosh, Raptors — Bosh is still developing, but he's a stud big-man with a penchant for low-post scoring and shot disrupting. He should balance nicely the outside and penetrating game that the team already features and gives Team USA a second elite low-post option in those games against some of the bigger European teams. He replaces Emeka Okafor on the roster, who was a zero in terms of contribution in Greece.

Joe Johnson, Hawks — Johnson can shoot, defend, pass, and handle the ball and while he is not a superstar, he has the meddle to be a medalist, if you will pardon the pun. He brings a full suite of tools to the game and his ability to finish should play nicely with the penetrating styles of Wade and Paul. Johnson replaces his one-time teammate Shawn Marion on the team, which makes this the one spot where a true loss may have occurred in net contributions, but Johnson's intangibles should not be overlooked.

Dwight Howard, Magic — The youngest of a very young group, Howard has proven to be an elite rebounder and a legit defensive force. He'll bring energy and production off the bench in areas that are necessary for teams to hold their leads, which should bode well for sustained American success. Howard takes the spot of Carlos Boozer — not a whole lot more needs to be said about that.

Just Missing the Cut

The plucky Kirk Hinrich, well-traveled Antawn Jamison, and underrated Brad Miller will all likely travel with the team, with Miller holding the best shot of making the squad if Amare Stoudemire isn't all the way back. The trio fits in well with the new era of USA basketball as each bring hustle, passion, and well-rounded games into the fray.

Bottom line, prospects are looking much better for Team USA, and not a moment too soon. While it is never too late to right one's wrongs, there's just so much any patriotic American can take, and recent losses to Puerto Rico and Ghana on the world stage in basketball and soccer, respectively, are pretty close to the death knell for a once ultra-proud nation as it struggles to hold onto its athletic superiority.

Here's hoping the new regime shares in this feeling and does whatever possible to rectify that situation — even if it means hurting the feelings of a few of the game's best.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 8:58 PM | Comments (1)

Baseball Trading, Worlds Apart

Alfonso Soriano got traded. A five-category player got traded in the middle of the season. Right now, you're thinking, "what the hell is this guy talking about?" — and that's okay.

In the real world, it's been well-documented that Soriano is still a Washington National. However, Soriano actually was traded for C.C. Sabathia and Rafael Furcal, two months ago, in my fantasy league. This is just another example of why fantasy baseball is a million times more fun than actual baseball.

Now, in the name of full disclosure, I love baseball. I have been to dozens of games just to root, root, root for the home team and I've watched thousands on television in my relatively brief existence on earth. Some, if not all, of my earliest memories are of baseball. I even had the rare opportunity to do my university internship with my favorite childhood team. However, fantasy baseball rocks.

In the major leagues this season, the following names have been traded: Carlos Lee, Bobby Abreu, Greg Maddux and ... umm .... hmmm...

In my fantasy league this season, the following names have been traded: Lance Berkman, Alfonso Soriano, Miguel Cabrera (twice), David Ortiz, Ichiro, Roy Holliday, Pedro Martinez, Jimmy Rollins, Chris Capuano, Ben Sheets, Bronson Arroyo, Tom Glavine, Mark Buerhle (twice), Roy Oswalt, Freddie Garcia, David Wright, Dontrelle Willis, Vlad Guerrero (twice), B.J. Ryan, Riviera, Brad Lidge, K-Rod, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling (twice), Pudge Rodriguez, Barry Zito, Greg Maddux (twice), and many other very relevant major leaguers.

What's the point of all this? Well, it's pretty simple. Instead of all the talk and rumors and owner interference and player interference that was apparently associated with this trade deadline, it would be nice to see major league general managers loosen up and make a deal. Mortgage the future! Play for now! Ninety percent of MLB general managers won't be around to see what happens when the big-time prospect makes the big leaguers. Half the time, the big-time prospect isn't even around when he's supposed to be around.

Who are the exceptions? Who are the general managers that spend decades with the same team? They are the GMs that win a championship. So why are all these guys hanging onto the Kendry Morales's and Lasting Milledge's of the world? I don't know. Alas, I am not only blaming those searching for the big bat.

It's the bad teams with the big stud to trade, too. What good is Miguel Tejada doing on the Baltimore Orioles? If you can get a good young pitcher, a major league-ready player, and a prospect, isn't time to let the man go? Peter Angelos will never win a championship. It's not because the Orioles have to compete with the Red Sox and the Yankees. It's because the man doesn't know what he's doing.

At any rate, there is a reason fantasy baseball is so popular. It's way more exciting. Every day in my league, I know that anything can happen. Any time, I can log on and see that Vladdy Guerrero got traded from the Tubby SOBs for some pitching help and a guy who has no use, but to almost exclusively steals bases. In real life, I have to hear about someone may or may not be on the block, agents give weak answers, players give contrite responses, and general managers give no response. At the end of the day, all we get is Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez for Xavier Nady.

Some might argue that it was pretty interesting to see Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns moved to Washington, as there was relentless bashing of the Reds' GM. However, did you see David Wright and Dontrelle Willis get dealt for a six-man package that included Prince Fielder, Kevin Mench, Eric Gagne, Todd Coffey, Jorge Julio, and Aaron Cook? I did, and all hell broke loose. A grown man nearly cried, in fact, he might have. Good times.

The thing about it is, I don't know if there is anything Major League Baseball can do, or if they should do anything. The NFL and NBA have no need for an exciting trade deadline. While it's definitely a treat in the middle of an NHL season, there probably isn't anything that the MLB can do to loosen up the trade negotiations.

You know what we're doing, though? Our trade deadline is Sunday, August 20th, and we are looking into "general managers meetings" at the local watering hole near the office. I'm not sure what the equivalent to this would be in the majors, but you would need all the GMs, all the owners, all the agents, and even the players with no-trade clauses all getting blitzed in some remote location. I don't see that happening. Again, fantasy baseball, more fun.

Even owning a fantasy team is more fun — it was reported that Roger Clemens went to Astros owner Drayton McLane and asked him to get help at the deadline. This is a nice way of saying that, shortly after watching the Astros blow their four-run lead after Clemens threw seven innings of two-hit, no-walk baseball, he flipped out and demanded that the Astros get someone to get him a win for a change. I "own" Clemens in my league, and while I had to witness the Astros cough up his and (by association) my win the same way McLane did. I didn't have to be confronted by an angry 250 lb. man to make the rest of my team better. More fun.

Okay, I admit, I have considerably less money invested in my fantasy leagues for the various sports, but in relative terms, it's not that far off. How much will George Steinbrenner lose if the Yankees don't win the World Series? This is a business that is the source of millions and millions of dollars each year. A perfectly good reason as to why he can pick up the contract of Bobby Abreu without blinking.

The Yankees will make money regardless of whether they win. It's almost admirable that they even try. A team that can sell their radio rights to a station that can then find a sponsor for the speed of a pitch is probably doing okay on their bottom line. In fantasy baseball, you lose minimal amounts of money but only get rewarded if you win. Unfortunately, "The Bomb Show" has yet to sell any corporate sponsorship and I am still waiting for my team's cut of the gate from major league ballparks.

Going up to the deadline, we were all tantalized by all these thoughts of player movement. How would it affect our favorite team? How would it affect our fantasy team? The biggest names in the game were being bandied about — some that we have heard a million times before like Soriano, Tejada, and Pat Burrell. There were other names that came as a surprise, like Jason Schmidt and Roy Oswalt. No true impact player went anywhere. Every team is still in the same position they were last week, except maybe the Yankees.

Basically, all that really happened was one team tinkered here and another team plugged a hole and at the end of the day, I was left in a grocery store, staring at a Hollywood magazine cover with *NSYNC's Lance Bass on the cover and the headline "I'm Gay." Does this magazine cover surprise me? About as much as another lame Major League Baseball trade deadline. Thankfully, our fantasy league's trading deadline is in three weeks, and I can guarantee it will be more fun.

Posted by Matt Russell at 5:28 PM | Comments (0)

Broncos Kick 'em to the Curb

Instead of arriving in Englewood for the Denver Broncos training camp to play, punter Todd Sauerbrun addressed the media about his four-game suspension brought on by ephedra use, a banned substance in the NFL.

"I feel really sick about this," he said.

He should.

After facing problems with the Carolina Panthers, including allegations of involvement in a steroid scandal, Sauerbrun should have never played roulette with the random drug testing policy. Instead, he blamed his positive ephedra result on bad timing.

Ephedra, a substance commonly used for weight loss, remains in the body for 36 hours after ingestion — a fact which Sauerbrun admitted knowledge of. He claimed he took a performance-enhancer that contained ephedra to energize his workout one morning. The next day, he was called in for a drug test.

The real question is whether this really was the one and only time that Sauerbrun took the drug, or if it was just the first time he had been caught. If the latter is true, it was only a matter of time. Better that it happened now than in the regular season.

What's so annoying about this matter is that it was unnecessary. In Carolina, Sauerbrun was fined several times for being what the team considered overweight. This may have caused Sauerbrun to be overly watchful of the number he saw on the scale — enough to take a banned substance for the sake of losing a few pounds. But in Denver, Sauerbrun's weight was never an issue.

"I don't care if he's 30 pounds over(weight)," head coach Mike Shanahan said of Sauerbrun. "All you've got to do is punt the ball and kick it in the end zone."

Sauerbrun apologized publicly to Shanahan and his teammates on July 27, Denver's opening day of training camp. He claims he will never make the mistake again.

If history is any indication, however, that may not be the case. Sauerbrun's reputation is already tarnished with his alleged involvement in the steroids scandal. Regardless of the truthfulness of those allegations (or not), he also has a DUI arrest in his name, suggesting that he has made foolish mistakes before.

Even though Sauerbrun did apologize for the incident, his apology was weak and laced with complaints that his punishment was too harsh.

"It's not steroids," Sauerbrun repeatedly said. "[All ephedra] does is wake you up and get you ready for your workout. I just wanted to be in the best shape I could when I got here, and that's what they're getting me for."

If he were alive, perhaps Korey Stringer could lecture Sauerbrun on the dangers of ephedra, and why he should take his punishment more seriously. Stringer collapsed during a Minnesota Vikings training camp practice in 2001 and later died. His death was later linked to taking ephedra.

Is Sauerbrun really worth another chance? How many media headaches is Mike Shanahan willing to suffer for him?

The same applies for Ashley Lelie, who raised eyebrows when he didn't report for minicamp on July 7. In hopes of forcing a trade, Lelie is intentionally ditching training camp, as well. If Lelie is lucky, a struggling team will grant him his wish and sign him as the team's top starter, which prompted him into wanting a trade in the first place. Unfortunately for Lelie, no one's knocking at his door. The only sure thing for him so far is the $14,000 daily fine he is collecting for missing camp.

The Broncos don't need Lelie and Sauerbrun — or their drama — on their roster.

The Broncos signed punter Micah Knorr on July 27 in lieu of Sauerbrun's absence. Knorr is a Broncos veteran who played for the team from 2002-2004 in 36 games. Though Knorr's 33.5-yard punting average isn't as strong as Sauerbrun's 44-yard average, Knorr is still an experienced player who will quickly re-adapt into the Broncos system. He has ranked as high as 11th in punting average and set a record for the statistic as a rookie in 2000. Although it isn't likely, keeping Knorr on the roster after Sauerbrun's expected return on Oct. 9 should not be considered out of the question. The only headlines with Knorr's name on them will report his doings on the field, not off — a major plus, all things considered.

As for Lelie, it's in everybody's best interest if he leaves Denver, whether it's now or a year from now. No matter what, he won't have the chance to be the Broncos' top WR — that spot is been ably held by Rod Smith, who has shown no desire to leave Denver in his 12 seasons. If Lelie truly is good enough to be a No. 1 receiver, another team will take a chance on him — but not this season. Lelie must prove himself, and he hasn't done that yet. That's why no other team is offering him a contract. If and when Lelie proves himself worthy of his wishes, Javon Walker will have no problem filling Lelie's role alongside Smith in Denver.

Posted by Charlynn Smith at 12:50 PM | Comments (2)