Many college coaches across the country spend the spring and the early part of summer having to reshape their rosters after early defections to the NBA. Coaches who didn't lose as many players as originally thought, or whose programs were able to dodge early entries all together, were able to breathe a sigh of relief. Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA and Arizona lost only one early entry to the draft combined. All five schools return their core for next season and appear to be teams that will challenge for a spot in Atlanta.
The Gators were a surprise last season after losing David Lee, Anthony Roberson, and Matt Walsh at the end of the 2005 season. Roberson and Walsh were early entrants to the '05 draft. After losing 58% of their scoring at the end of 2005, not much was expected from UF in 2006. All the Gators did was capture the school's first national championship with four sophomores and a junior. Just as amazing is that all five will return for 2007.
Billy Donovan was able to put a better defensive team on the floor. They ran their way to their first national championship with superior athleticism and pressure defense. The combination of Joakim Noah and Al Horford upfront gave UF a strong inside game. Corey Brewer became the team's shutdown defensive player, Taurean Green stabilized the offense at the point, and Lee Humphrey was deadly from three-point range.
With the starting unit returning intact and incoming recruits such as forwards Jonathan Mitchell and Dan Werner and wings Brandon Powell and Doneal Mack, the Gators are a near lock to be number one in November. Next spring, Donovan might not be so lucky. Noah is likely to become a lottery pick, and Horford and Green are possibly early entrants and likely first-round picks.
Out in Lawrence, meanwhile, Kansas had a disappointing March for the second straight year. Back-to-back first-round losses in the NCAA tournament might have the faithful in Lawrence doubting Bill Self's ability to coach in big games. He has already taken Tulsa and Illinois to the Elite Eight, however. Fortunately, returning its top seven scorers and welcoming elite freshman Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur should have Kansas ranked in the top five when Midnight Madness commences in October.
Last season's freshmen class was crucial to the Jayhawks' success. Brandon Rush led KU in scoring and rebounding, Mario Chalmers was second in scoring, and Julian Wright was a key contributor with his vision and all-court game. Without a strong senior class in 2007, juniors-to-be Russell Robinson, Sasha Kaun, CJ Giles, and Darnell Jackson will be counted on in leadership roles.
Back in Chapel Hill, a year after losing four players early to the draft and his top seven scorers overall, North Carolina's Roy Williams has to be looking forward to returning his core for 2007. Tyler Hansbrough (18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg in 2006) played more mature than a freshman, forward Rayshawn Terry (14.3 ppg), who stepped up after being used little as a sophomore reserve in 2005, will be counted on as a senior leader in 2007. Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, and Marcus Ginyard were key contributors as freshmen in '06. Incoming freshmen Twyon Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Brandan Wright considered part of one of the top two recruiting classes will challenge for starting spots in 2007.
Coming off its most successful season since winning the 1995 national championship, UCLA lost only point guard Jordan Farmar as an early entrant to the NBA. Seniors Ryan Hollins, Cedric Bozeman, and Michael Fey also finished their eligibility. The loss of Farmar as the 26th pick shouldn't be devastating. Darren Collison (5.5 ppg. 2.3 apg) seems ready to assume the reigns of running the show for Ben Howland.
Aaron Afflalo has the potential to become an All-American in 2007 if he heals well from a stress fracture in his left foot. The injury is expected to keep him off the court until early or mid September.
The return of swingman Josh Shipp will be a big boost the Bruins' erratic-at-times offense. Shipp returns after sitting out 2006 as a medical redshirt. Also, deadly three-point shooter Michael Roll provides depth on the perimeter. The prince, Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute, exploded on to the scene as a freshman. If he increases his offensive productivity, he can become a nationally-known player. Ryan Wright, Alfred Aboya, and Lorenzo Mata give the Bruins a deep front court. Highly-touted power forward James Keefe will have to battle for minutes as a freshman.
Staying in the Pac-10, we move to Arizona, who despite losing Salim Stoudamire and Channing Frye at the end of 2005, was still expected to be a top-10 team in 2006. Injuries, suspensions, poor team chemistry, and players not living up to their potential relegated the Wildcats to a 20-13 finish and a second round loss to Villanova in the NCAA tournament.
It appeared that Lute Olson was going to be stung by early entrants. Marcus Williams withdrew his name shortly after entering. Mustafa Shakur tested the water by attending draft camps. The 6'3" point guard ultimately decided returning to school was in his best interest. With Williams, swingman Jawaan McClellan, and incoming freshman Chase Budinger on the wings, Shakur shouldn't regret his decision. Upfront, Kirk Walters is reliable and Ivan Radenovic has had the biggest two and half year improvement during his tenure according to Olson. Fendi Onobun, Mohamed Tangara, and Bret Brielmaier will be counted on for depth.
Olson always like to push the tempo and 2007 should become one of his best offensive teams. JP Prince, Nic Wise, and Daniel Dillon provide the Wildcats with many options in the backcourt. Losing Hassan Adams and Chris Rodgers will hurt defensively. But despite his talents, Rodgers was a hindrance to team chemistry with a me-first attitude and Adams never seemed comfortable having to carry the load. Arizona is fortunate returning everyone with eligibility left and should return to nation's elite in 2007.
In past eras, recruiting high school and junior college players was difficult enough. But in this ever-changing landscape, coaches must now re-recruit their own players who flirt with the NBA. Because they were able to dodge multiple early defections, Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, and Arizona should be at or near the top of the rankings in November.
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