Last Year
After a season off from contention, mostly because of injury impediments, the Carolina Panthers reclaimed their NFC contender status in 2005. The Panthers cruised to a 9-3 start, thanks to a facile schedule, and continued to exude characteristics that their head coach John Fox preaches: play smart and play hard. The wily Fox always gets the most out of his talent and now that the Panthers have added more pieces to the puzzle, they are heralded as one of the NFC's top teams.
What We Learned From Last Year
One year after the Panthers were forced to go six-deep into their running back rotation, the depth of their halfbacks was once again tested early on in the 2005 season.
Stephen Davis started off handling the load, but clearly did not have the same pace as he offered in 2003. He wore down as the season continued, which is when DeShaun Foster stepped into the limelight. He was up and down and about the only time he was reliable was when facing a beaten up Atlanta Falcons defense, racking up 282 of his 879 rushing yards against them. Cut those two games out and Foster only averaged 3.6 yards-per-carry the rest of the way.
Nick Goings was no longer an option and highly touted second-round pick Eric Shelton was of no use in his rookie season.
The struggles of the running back ensemble had little to do with the offensive line. The front five may have lacked some power, but overall, they were a very competent unit. The Green Bay Packers sorely missed guard Mike Wahle last year, but the Panthers loved him, as he earned an invite to the Pro Bowl. Third-year tackle Jordan Gross continued his development, and is one of the league's underrated tackles. Left tackle Travelle Wharton, who played well for the most part, was noticeably abused in pass protection a few times.
Without a consistent running attack and no production from the tight-end position, virtually all of the offense went through MVP candidate Steve Smith. The NFL's 2006 co-Comeback Player of the Year was the team's only weapon, catching 78 more passes, 1,122 more yards, and 8 more touchdowns than the second-closest receiver in each of those categories.
Double and triple teams didn't matter and corner-safety brackets had no effect. The Panthers got the ball in the hands of Smith at every level of the field, allowing him to rack up a league-leading 810 yards after the catch.
There are many offensive coordinators who get a lot of airtime, but Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning is not one of them. He may not have the best weapons to work with from week-to-week, but he does one heck of a job game planning.
On defense, the Panthers were dealt a big blow once again as Kris Jenkins succumbed to his second season-ending injury in as many seasons. Prior to the injuries, he was the NFL's top defensive tackle and his loss has been felt everywhere on the Panthers' defense.
End Mike Rucker can vouch for that, as he has played two muted seasons without Jenkins. Rucker was teamed with a premier defensive end in Julius Peppers, but even so, the Panthers were clearly weak up the middle. Twelve-year veteran Brenston Buckner showed his age while Jordan Carstens was asked to play a role that exceeded his abilities.
Linebacker Dan Morgan was healthy enough to play in 13 games, but still has yet to participate in every game in his five NFL seasons. Pundits close to the organization were well aware of Will Witherspoon's capabilities prior to the season and hence there was little surprise when he performed as the Panthers' top linebacker.
In the secondary, the signing of Ken Lucas, along with Chris Gamble, provided two stellar cornerbacks and more importantly, pushed Ricky Manning, Jr. to a nickelback role. The team tried to groom Thomas Davis for a safety position, but to no avail. Marlon McCree fended him off from the strong safety position and ended up leading the defense in tackles.
The defense finished with the third-best ranking and the team as a whole finished with 11 wins, but both statistics make the Panthers sounds better than what they were.
The Panthers were 8-1 versus teams with a record of .500 or worse and were only 3-4 against winning teams.
In the grand scheme of things, the Panthers were a solid team, but were not as scary as some might have you believe. They are a tough opponent who is always well prepared. They don't lose to bad teams and they always put their best foot forward against winning teams. Now that they have added a couple of key pieces, they can be fully considered armed and dangerous.
This Year
For a coach who focuses on running the ball and stopping the run, not boasting a 1,000-yard running back since the 2003 season was an ailment.
Hence the drafting of DeAngelo Williams, one of the most productive NCAA running backs ever. Although the ceiling on this kid may not be as high as Reggie Bush, he is as close to a "can't miss" prospect as you can get. And for a team who missed on almost all of their 2005 draft, they needed to reap more certainties out of this class.
Between Williams and Foster, the Panthers should find a level of consistency. Should Foster's fragile figure endure anymore nicks and bruises, he may not recover his starting spot as Williams has all he tools to be a successful back in the NFL. Eric Shelton is still on the roster, albeit barely, but has added some muscle mass in the offseason and should stick as the team's bruising back.
The Panthers addressed their desperate need for a second pair of reliable hands outside of Steve Smith's by signing on Keyshawn Johnson. He's in his twilight years now, but is a steep upgrade over Kerry Colbert and Rod Gardner, both of whom failed at this role last season. Johnson is sturdy and durable, and will make tough catches in the middle of the field. Without a serviceable catching tight end, that is an added value. Drew Carter should take on the responsibilities of the third receiver, although his skills mimic Johnson's with some more speed.
With Jake Delhomme in place at quarterback and improvements to skill players around him, the offensive line will feel some heat not to drop the ball. They will incorporate a couple of new starters in center Justin Hartwig and right guard Evan Mathis, both of whom figure to be upgrades. Some continuity would be nice, especially if they plan on making a serious run.
The Panthers have more depth than the average team, but do not have many long term solutions should they be forced to use an alternate plan. Steve Smith's speed is critical to an otherwise sluggish offense and he needs to be healthy for all 16 games, as well as the playoffs.
On defense, the Panthers will entail the NFL's top defensive line should "Big Kid" Kris Jenkins fully recover from a torn ACL. Even without him, they figure to be a top-10 unit with the additions of tackles Ma'ake Kemoeatu and Damione Lewis. Kemoeatu is about as stout against the run as it gets and is impossible to move out of the way with one blocker. Lewis, a first-round pick gone awry from St. Louis, flashed potential in spurts, but never fully developed. His failures, though, may be attested to poor coaching and a change of scenery in Carolina could see him emerge as a viable contributor.
The front four is dangerous, but the Panthers need to get pressure on the quarterback from other areas, as well. Kemoeatu's bulk should open up some lanes.
With more mass up front, not only will Peppers and Rucker have an easy time of things, field general Dan Morgan will stay free of blockers. With his health being a perennial concern, there are no certainties among the linebackers as Thomas Davis gets his first try at the strong side, while the weak side is an open competition. Na'il Diggs, Keith Adams, and 2006 third-round pick James Anderson will vie for the opening.
The secondary returns strong, but a new face will start at the nickel cornerback position. Reggie Howard, a smart, non-flashy defensive back, will start at the spot, but second-rounder Richard Marshall could take over midseason.
At safety, Mike Minter will be joined by Shaun Williams, the third different strong safety to start for the Panthers in three seasons. Fourth-round pick Nate Salley will be developed slowly to eventually take over for Minter down the road.
The strength of this team still lies on the defensive side of the ball and with the infusion of DeAngelo Williams and Keyshawn Johnson, the Panthers have an above average offense for accompaniment.
They are the New England Patriots of the NFC in the sense that they don't beat themselves, they have tight team chemistry, they are well-coached, they are stronger as an underdog, and they overachieve every year. This version is very balanced and it will take an opponent's A+ game to eliminate the Panthers from the playoffs.
Over/Under: 10
The Panthers have a relatively easy first five weeks to the season in which they should be able to gel and gain some confidence. While they are the class of the division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rival them stride-for-stride for the top spot in the NFC South. They play: ATL, @MIN, @TB, NO, CLE, @BAL, @CIN, DAL, TB, STL, @WAS, @PHI, @WAS, NYG, PIT, @ATL, and @NO.
Fantasy Sleeper
While DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams are not likely to last very long in the draft, Keyshawn Johnson should and will be able to fill as a number two or number three wideout. Last season, he tallied 839 yards and 6 touchdowns as the Cowboys' top wide receiver and he should have enough space to match those numbers with defenses focusing in on Steve Smith.
This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].
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