Can Peyton Manning Win the Big One?

Five Quick Hits

* Italy has won the world's biggest sporting event. If you're going through withdrawal and need a soccer fix, try MLS. But don't watch on television — go to a match. You can get a single-game ticket for under $20.

* MLS still isn't the most competitive league in the world, but it's no joke. On Wednesday, DC United drubbed Celtic FC, 4-0.

* Big kudos to Amelie Mauresmo and Roger Federer for their Wimbledon victories. Likewise for the Bryan Brothers, who completed a career grand slam in doubles.

* Only slightly smaller kudos to Rafael Nadal, who proved that he's more than a clay-court specialist.

* For all the justified criticism of the US men's soccer team, it was the only group in this year's Cup to play Italy and escape without a loss.

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The question has dogged him since college. Can Peyton Manning win the big one? Some people didn't think so when Manning was a star at the University of Tennessee in the mid-1990s. Today, with Manning about to begin his ninth season in the NFL, he is established as one of the league's greatest players, and he is widely considered the best quarterback in the game. But the "big game" question continues to follow him.

Manning has been named to the Associated Press all-pro team five times, including first-team for each of the past three seasons. Since 1978, when significant rules changes were made to open up the passing game, no quarterback has more first-team selections, and only Dan Marino and Steve Young have more total selections.

Manning has made six Pro Bowls in his eight seasons and has never thrown for less than 3,700 yards. His six seasons with over 4,000 yards are tied with Marino for the most in history. He already has more career passing yards and touchdowns than Troy Aikman or Young. Manning has completed over 66% of his passes for four consecutive years and has never completed fewer than 300 passes in a season. He has averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt every season since his rookie year, and in 2004 he broke Marino's record for TDs in a season and shattered Young's single-season mark for passer rating. Manning's career passer rating (93.5) is the third-highest in history, well ahead of legends like Marino (86.4) and Brett Favre (86.0).

The numbers are only a shadow of the whole story. At the top of his game, Manning is a joy to watch, reminiscent of Marino in his prime. His play-fakes may be the best in the history of the sport, and he looks opponents off the ball better than anyone else in the game. His control of the Colts' offense from the line of scrimmage is, at times, literally awesome. And despite an almost mesmerizing lack of speed, Manning takes fewer sacks than any other starting quarterback in the NFL. The physical skills, of course, have always been there: Manning has arm strength and a quick release, and his timing and accuracy may be the best in the history of the game.

No one disputes Manning's greatness. But many fans still wonder if Manning can hold it together when the stakes are highest. Even critics concede at this point that Peyton can come through in the clutch; the evidence is overwhelming, from the historic comeback against Tampa Bay in Week 5 of the 2003 season to his outstanding performance at New England in last season's 40-21 Week 9 win. But the Colts have struggled in the postseason, and Manning has saved some of his worst moments for the game's biggest stage.

I won't hold Manning's early-career playoff losses against him. His team was outmatched and he was a different player than he is today. This part of Manning's career began in 2003, when he won his initial first-team all-pro honors and the Colts became legitimate Super Bowl contenders. That postseason began in historic fashion. Manning massacred the Broncos, going 22-for-26 with 377 yards, five TDs, and no interceptions. The next week, when Indianapolis beat the 13-3 Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, Manning was 22-for-30 with 304 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. He was so efficient that some fans thought the Colts might actually beat New England in the AFC Championship Game.

The Patriots won 24-14, and the game probably wasn't as close as the score makes it seem. Manning completed fewer than half his passes and threw four interceptions. His fans pointed to the brilliance Manning displayed in the previous two games, and noted New England's exceptional defense, while detractors called it a choke. The loss dropped Manning to 2-4 in his postseason career.

The NFL's schedule-makers put together a beauty of a season-opener in 2004, pitting the Pats against the Colts in a rematch of the previous AFC Championship battle. Manning was inconsistent, and the Colts lost 27-24. The team and its quarterback both rebounded, however, with the Colts winning their division and Manning being named league MVP. The Colts again met Denver in the first round of the playoffs and once again won in a rout. Manning completed 82% of his passes and threw for 457 yards and four TDs, running for another.

The next week, the Colts traveled to Foxboro to face the Patriots. Indianapolis was badly outmatched, Manning was mediocre, and the Pats won 20-3. The verdict was in: the Colts can't beat New England. Or, as many fans saw it: Manning can't beat Tom Brady. Bad coaching and poor defense undoubtedly played a role in Indy's defeats, but Manning seemed puzzled and frustrated by Bill Belichick's defensive schemes.

Last season, the Colts were a juggernaut, winning their first 13 games and easily clinching the top seed in the AFC playoffs. They conquered their demons with a regular-season win at New England and looked ready to take the next step. In their first playoff game, against Pittsburgh, the Colts lost by a field goal. Manning was respectable, throwing for almost 300 yards without an interception, but he wasn't his usual dominant self, controlling the game from the line of scrimmage and threading perfect passers to receivers downfield. Most fans blamed the coaching staff for the Colts' choke job, but others continued to cite Manning's pattern of failure in the postseason, where his record is now 3-6.

With the 2006 season approaching, oddsmakers have made Indianapolis favorites to win the Super Bowl. So once again, the question arises: can Manning win the big one? I believe he can. Manning has proved he can come through in the clutch, and even if he doesn't, sometimes luck can take care of things. Ben Roethlisberger didn't play much better in last year's postseason than Manning did, and he has a ring.

That said, I've lost faith in the Colts. I don't know yet who I'll pick to win the Super Bowl, but it won't be Indianapolis. Some of the problem probably does lie with Manning, who tries too hard and makes mistakes when things don't go well early. Some of the problem lies with his coaching staff, especially Tony Dungy (which hurts to admit, since Dungy is a good coach and may be the single most likable person in the NFL). There's blame to go around, but it's reasonable to question whether the Colts, in their current form, can string together enough victories in big games to win a Super Bowl.

Can Peyton Manning win the big one? Yes, he can. But I don't think he will.