2006 NFL Preview: Buffalo Bills

Last Year

It was supposed to be a smooth transition from the Drew Bledsoe era to the JP Losman era, especially since the Buffalo Bills ended 2004 on such a high. But as the new season started, there was no sign of the secure bunch that won eight of the final 10 games the previous season. Losman was erratic and the team was frequently unprepared and out-coached every Sunday. Owner Ralph Wilson has introduced a fresh front office and a new coaching staff in order to change the franchise's direction. The question is: which direction are they headed?

What We Learned From Last Year

The 2005 season started well for the Bills with an important, confidence-building win against Houston.

After head coach Mike Mularkey named JP Losman the starter what seemed like three seasons ago, it was important for the young buck to achieve a win in Week 1.

But even with a drubbing of Texans, who would become the NFL's worst team, reality would set in during the coming weeks for the Bills.

Surprisingly, their biggest failure during the season was simply poor coaching.

In five of their first six losses, the Bills would be the first team to score — typically on an opening drive or very early in the game — but would not be able to react when their opponent made adjustments.

Losman really labored with his mechanics and delivery throughout the season, completing only 49.6% of his passes. As buoyant as his personality is, his squad simply did not believe that they had much of a chance to win when he was under center.

On the other hand, veteran Kelly Holcomb provided a steady hand, compiling a 4-4 record in eight starts.

The dilemma for the coaching staff was that although the team was more competitive under Holcomb, Losman was undeniably the quarterback of the future and required the playing time to develop.

With little consistency at the quarterback position, the statistics of wide receivers Eric Moulds and Lee Evans suffered. Moulds, although providing a reliable pair of hands, looked more and more like a possession receiver with diminishing deep speed.

Running back Willis McGahee, who was highly-touted in the fantasy world, stumbled and finished with only 5 TDs. In his defense, though, the offensive line in front of him was about as supportive as a wet paper towel.

Guard Bennie Anderson was mistake-prone, center Trey Teague was often overpowered and tackle Mike Gandy was nothing more than an average starter. Much was expected out of tackle Mike Williams, who was selected fourth overall in the 2002 draft, but he never provided commensurate value. The Bills thought so highly of him last season that they moved him to guard and placed undrafted tight end Jason Peters in his starter's spot.

The defensive line performed at virtually the same dreadful level, which started with the lackadaisical efforts of tackle Sam Adams. His discouraging work landed him on the bench and left the Bills significantly undersized in the heart of their line. The pain was doubly felt as space-eater Pat Williams departed to Minnesota as a free agent in the offseason, and his replacement, Ron Edwards, was lost for the season in Week 3.

The linebackers were frequently harassed with blockers and once Pro Bowler Takeo Spikes succumbed to season-ending injury, the corps was overmatched on a weekly basis. Rookie Angelo Crowell, who was a standout on special teams and replaced Spikes in the starting lineup, labored mightily with gap assignments.

Needless to say, the Bills were gashed by the run, allowing 2,205 yards (31st in NFL), 22 rushing touchdowns (32nd), 19 rushes of 20 yards or more (31st), 4.5 yards per carry average (29th), and 146 rushing first downs (32nd). Those statistics all add up to being the worst red zone and third-down defense.

Strong safety Lawyer Milloy wasn't so strong, as a cast over his broken thumb made tackling a tough task for him. Also, both Milloy and safety partner Troy Vincent looked like they lost some speed in between seasons.

Overall, the Bills were a lazy team and an on-the-ball coaching staff could have milked at least two more wins out of this group. With losses in eight of the final 10 games, the Bills finished 2005 the exact opposite way they finished 2004. Maybe that bodes well for their regular season record in the coming season.

This Year

When your offense only accumulates 4,122 yards — the lowest total in a 16-game, non-strike season — and your defense is penetrated for 5,496 yards, you have some work to do.

Clearly, the fragile psyche of Mike Mularkey was not up to the chore and the burden falls on the shoulders of Dick Jauron and a familiar face of success, Marv Levy.

It was clear right from the get-go that lethargic players were not going to last long on this roster and that the Bills planned to infuse hard-working bodies.

This strategy was implemented emphatically along the offensive line, where Williams, Anderson, and Teague were given the boot. The replacements are Melvin Fowler and Tutan Reyes, and although they don't overwhelm, the Bills were obviously tired of employing linemen who underwhelmed. There have been no constants among this unit and the Bills seemingly introduce a couple of new starters every year.

Offensive line coach Jim McNally may be one of the best in the business, but he has his work cut out for him with this very average grouping.

While questions revolve around the front five, it is unclear to this point who they will be protecting.

The three candidates are JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Craig Nall. Since the new regime owes nothing to Losman, he is on his last chance in Buffalo, should he fail to impress in training camp. Holcomb is the most capable starter at this point, but he is only a stop-gap at best. Nall is the long shot and he'll have to show some real promise if he is to get the reigns.

Although the Bills traded away the face of their franchise, Eric Moulds, in the offseason, their wide receiving corps should offer more speed. Lee Evans is not capable of handling the pressures of being a number one wideout and he will need the help of Peerless Price, who failed to keep a roster spot in Atlanta or Dallas after leaving the Bills in 2003 as one of the most sought-after free agents. Although he was likely wearing a ski mask when he signed this ludicrously lucrative contact from the Bills, Price was hindered by a run-first offense with an inaccurate quarterback in Atlanta. His jettisoning from Dallas does wave a red flag, though.

Two second-year pass catchers, tight end Kevin Everett and wide receiver Roscoe Parrish, who were mired with injury during their rookie season, must contribute to this offense for it to be successful. Parrish's short and speedy blend of wide receiver is de rigueur right now in the NFL and with Everett's explosiveness, the duo could provide excellent receiving support. Tight end Robert Royal was signed as a free agent from Washington, but his strong suit is blocking.

While the Bills used free agency to address offensive needs, they engineered a stellar draft to replenish their defense.

While some speculate that first-rounders Donte Whitner and John McCargo were pulled off the board too early, the Bills' following three selections in Ashton Youbouty, Ko Simpson, and Kyle Williams were steals.

By switching to the cover-two defense — or a scheme that will look very similar to it — defensive coordinator Perry Fewell required smaller, faster defensive tackles who are able to shoot gaps and penetrate.

Bulky tackles like Sam Adams and Ron Edwards no longer had a home here while leaner tackles like McCargo and free agent signing Larry Triplett are ideal.

If you examine Monte Kiffin's Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, which is the template for the cover-two, you would notice that their starting tackles weigh in at around 300lbs. The Bills are following that pattern.

Blue collar workers like Tim Anderson and Kyle Williams should also fit much better into this scheme.

If the Bills can generate some pressure up the middle and underrated defensive end Aaron Schobel continues to wreak havoc on the end, maybe he can finally get some league-wide attention.

Although the linebacking depth was not addressed through the draft, the Bills are optimistic about Angelo Crowell's future and also acquired Courtney Watson, who might thrive in a change of environment. As long as Spikes returns healthy and London Fletcher is right beside him, the Bills will entail one of the better trios in the league.

Rookies Ashton Youboty, Ko Simpson, and Donte Whitner have now become the secondary of the future. Youboty has a sturdy frame and is solid against the run, while his weakness of gambling on the ball should be shielded with consistent help from a safety, which he will get in a cover-two scheme. That is why he is a really good pick up in the third-round. Teamed with Nate Clements and Terrence McGee, the cornerbacks unit is likely the strongest position on the team.

Whitner will be depended on to start right off the bat. He should add some pop to the run defense and will immediately offer more range than an aging and overpaid Lawyer Milloy. He will be a solid safety for years to come.

Ko Simpson will likely be second on the depth chart behind incumbent Troy Vincent but he will get a lot of wisdom from the veteran and might have the job by season's end.

Although the Bills have a lot of promise on defense, they have a ton of questions on offense and the general feeling of the team is that there is a very low ceiling for this season. If Holcomb is the starter and Jauron can extract a top-notch effort from this team, eight wins is possible — but there is really no scenario where they can top that number.

Over/Under: 6.5

With the New England Patriots taking a step back in the offseason, the New York Jets in rebuilding mode, and with Miami on the schedule early, the Bills don't have an impossible division schedule. The Bills figure to be a much more consistent team if Holcomb wins the starting job and should get to seven wins if he's the quarterback. The play: @NE, @MIA, NYJ, MIN, @CHI, @DET, NE, GB, @IND, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, and @BAL.

Fantasy Sleeper

With a quarterback competition, it may be best to stay away from any receivers on this team. Lee Evans has fantasy bust written all over him, while Willis McGahee will likely have a strong rebound year if he wants a lavish new contract. The Bills defense should provide some good value as a secondary defense and should be starter-worthy once they fully grasp their new scheme.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].