Wimbledon Preview: Who’ll Stop the Reign?

Should the All-England Lawn and Tennis Club even bother hosting Wimbledon for the men this year?

According to the sports books, it doesn't have to. Three-time defending champion Roger Federer is currently going off at 1-to-2 odds, meaning he is much better than even money to win the thing. Those kinds of odds at the beginning of any tournament are simply unheard of, but in this case, they are perfectly accurate.

The tennis world has had ample time to gush over the clay-court accomplishments of Rafael Nadal, and gush it has. But the unmercifully long dirtball season is now over, and it's Federer's time to regain the throne that is annually called into question throughout the spring, culminating at Roland Garros. Unless you don't know what tennis is or have been hibernating for the last month, you know that Nadal surpassed Guillermo Vilas' record for consecutive victories on clay with number 54 in his first-round victory (and now stands at 60 after his disposal of Federer in the championship).

But as sure as spring gives way to summer and clay gives way to grass, so too does Rafael Nadal give way to Roger Federer. So let us discuss Roger's equally-impressive accolades on the grass.

With his victory last week in Halle, Germany, Federer has now won 41 straight matches on the slick surface, tying Bjorn Borg's Open Era record. Of course, the Swiss star probably takes a little more pride in a certain other grass-court accomplishment — namely three straight Wimbledon titles.

Ever since Federer ended Pete Sampras' reign at Wimbledon in 2001 with an epic five-set victory in the quarterfinals (thus paving the way for Goran Ivanisevic to finally win the title that had so painfully eluded him), tennis fans knew he could be the All-England Club's next perennial force.

Two years later, that reality was set in motion as Federer captured his first Grand Slam championship.

Many athletes say that it's not worth showing up if they don't have a chance to win. So do the other 127 participants in the main draw of Wimbledon actually think they have a chance? Maybe so, depending on what their definition of the word "chance" is.

Remember in Dumb and Dumber when Harry (Jim Carey) asks Mary Swanson what the chances are of a guy like him ending up with as girl like her? She says they're about one in a million, to which Harry excitedly proclaims, "So you're telling me there's a chance!" The situation in London this week is really no different.

So with no further ado, here are the contenders who are probably dumb enough to entertain thoughts of doing the unthinkable next week at Wimbledon.

Dumb

Andy Roddick — He has been playing less-than-inspiring tennis as of late, but at least he is off the clay and onto a surface that suits his game perfectly. Roddick had a decent showing last week at Queens despite bowing out to compatriot James Blake in the semifinals. I'm sure that's not the result he had in mind heading into the tournament, but it should give him some much-needed confidence heading into Wimbledon. Roddick is certainly not in the top five in terms of current form, but his previous showings at Wimbledon (runner-up the last two years to Federer) make him my second choice to win the tournament.

David Nalbandian — The Argentine is right up there with Roddick at the top of the list of Federer's challengers, and he's had much more success than the American against the No. 1 player in the world. At last year's Masters Cup, Nalbandian beat Federer in five grueling sets in what was the second best match of the year behind Andre Agassi/James Blake at the U.S. Open. Most recently at Roland Garros, Nalbanian stormed to a shocking set and 3-0 lead on Federer in the semifinals, before ultimately retiring in the fourth set after his opponent drastically picked up his game.

Head-to-head, I think Roddick has the edge in a match against Nalbandian due to his firepower on grass. However, if one is to play Federer in the Wimbledon final, Nalbandian has the better chance. Federer knows he owns Roddick and Roddick knows it, too. On the other hand, Nalbandian's past performances against Federer give him cause to believe, and perhaps even give Federer some doubts.

Lleyton Hewitt — I discounted him at the French, but he proved me wrong with his run to the fourth round and respectable effort against Nadal. The same mistake will not be made here. Hewitt's triumph at Queens last week solidifies him as one of the top contenders. He benefited from Nadal's retirement after two sets of a quarterfinal match and took advantage by ousting hometown hero Tim Henman in the semis. The Aussie went on to erase James Blake (who took out Roddick in the other semifinal) in the championship match.

Not only is Hewitt playing good tennis at the moment, but he knows what it takes to win Wimbledon, as he proved in 2001. These factors, combined with his unparalleled mental fortitude, make him a scary opponent for anyone next week.

Rafael Nadal — Wimbledon is the only tournament that does not seed strictly by players' ATP ranking. Instead, the tournament directors also take into account past performances at the All-England Club, as well as potential on grass. Nadal, of course, is unaccomplished on the lawn, yet he has been granted the No. 2 seed behind Federer and ahead of Roddick. That's some serious respect for a player who has has been a terror on clay, but an also-ran on grass.

Nadal, however, does not have a big enough serve to take him deep into Wimbledon. The Spaniard is also inexperienced on grass, and he surely would have liked to make a deeper run at Queens to get some matches in on the foreign surface. His retirement against Hewitt was probably just precautionary, but his left shoulder is still a question mark heading into Wimbledon. I think reaching the fourth round would be a great achievement for Nadal at this stage in his career, but I can't imagine him going any further than that.

Ivan Ljubicic — The Croatian giant presents a terrifying matchup for anyone and everyone at this year's championships. While his powerful game is best suited for grass, Ljubicic has been tearing it up on the hard stuff and the clay throughout the season. He reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open before losing to Marcos Baghdatis in five sets, and at Roland Garros he would have won a set off Nadal in the semis had it not been for a colossal brain cramp at 5-3 in the tiebreaker to the tune of a 140 mph second serve.

Ljubicic also reached the finals of the Nasdaq in Miami, where he lost to Federer in three hard-fought tie-break sets. His lethal combination of booming serve and one-handed backhand should allow him to make quick work of any unworthy opponents in the early rounds of Wimbledon. If Ljubicic gets a favorable draw, he will slug his way all the way to into the semifinals.

Dumber

James Blake — His victory over Andy Roddick at Queens last week should give Blake a shot of confidence heading into the tournament. However, he followed that win up with a relatively lackluster performance against Hewitt in the final, suggesting that Blake may not be ready for the big-time on grass. Yes, a win over Roddick on grass used to be as good as it gets, but not in this point in time.

If Blake can get his serve going and pick the right times to unleash his forehand, he could make it to the second week, but he'll be shown the door whenever he runs into a grass-court specialist. Unfortunately, that could come as early as the third round in the form of Max Mirnyi or Mark Philippoussis.

Fernando Gonzalez — The Argentine seems to be rounding into a player for all surfaces. His game is all about power, power, and more power, and that combination finally paid dividends for Gonzo on something other than clay last year at Wimbledon. Will he duplicate his 2005 run to the quarterfinals this time around? Gonzalez flamed out early at Roland Garros, but he appeared to recover from that by making a respectable showing at Queens. It's the draw — not his play — that will be Gonzo's undoing. If he is lucky enough to get past the winner of Greg Rusedski/Marit Safin in the second round, he'll eventually meet Hewitt in the fourth. The Aussie is not the guy you want to play if you're Gonzalez, he of an infamously fragile mental game.

Tommy Haas — Earlier this year, Haas was one of the three hottest players on tour, along with Federer and Blake. Unfortunately, the clay-court season really killed his buzz. Now Haas is back on a surface that could allow him to wreak the kind of havoc he was causing for the rest of the tour back in January and February. But speaking of killing buzz, the Wimbledon draw did just that for Haas. He'll be on a plane back to Germany after he does battle with one Roger Federer in the third round.

Tim Henman — The man on whom the British faithful pinned their hopes on to become the first homegrown Wimbledon champion since Fred Perry in 1936 is fading fast into the twilight of his career. I found no reason to believe he would regain the form he showed in 2001 when he lost in a one-for-the-ages semifinal match to eventual champ Goran Ivanisevic until last week at Queens. Henman took out Andre Agassi in the opening round and made it to the semis where he took a set off Hewitt before losing.

Unfortunately, any excitement that performance generated for his local following probably died with the draw ceremony. Not only did the All-England Club fail to give him a seed, but he has to play Federer in the second round. Depriving Tiger Tim of a seed at his own tournament is a travesty of similar proportions to the refereeing that took place in the USA soccer games against Italy and Ghana. The second round pairing simply adds salt on the wound.

They Might Be Giants

Mario Ancic — If Ancic is that good on clay, how good can he be on grass? At the French Open, which should present Ancic with his biggest challenge due to the slow surface, the Croat surged to a berth in the quarterfinals before losing to Federer. That can only mean he is playing brilliant tennis at the moment, and if Ancic can do what he did at Roland Garros, his potential at Wimbledon is uncapped. Like his compatriot Ljubicic, Ancic has an enormous serve that he can follow up with a punishing forehand. The rest of the field will want to avoid him at all costs. Looking at his draw, Ancic should coast into the quarterfinals where he will meet the three-soon-to-be-four-time champion.

Max Mirnyi — The Beast. Don't mess with The Beast. Especially not on grass. The 6'5'' Belarussian is in a quarter of the draw that contains nobody who is overly imposing, so this is a good opportunity for Max to match or surpass his fourth-round performance in 2005. And a note to any doubles fans out there: money put on the Jonas Bjorkman/Mirnyi team to win the doubles title is money well-spent.

Ivo Karlovic — The Croat is absolutely terrifying to play on grass. Just ask Lleyton Hewitt, who lost to Karlovic in the first round at Wimbledon the year after he won the whole thing. For me, it's surprise when Karlovic plays a set that is not decided with a tiebreaker, regardless of surface. On grass, it's a downright shock. And as we all know, anything can happen in a tiebreaker. Karlovic is the x-factor of this tournament. On any given day at Wimbledon, he could beat the No. 1 player in the draw, or just as easily lose to the No. 128 player in the field. Of course, if I'm that No. 128 player, I could think of several hundred other guys I'd rather play.

Bottom Line

Roger Federer is going to win the tournament. God knows who the runner-up will be. It should be a thrilling battle throughout the fortnight for second place at the All-England Lawn and Tennis Club.