Detroit Tigers: Contenders or Pretenders?

The city of Detroit and the state of Michigan has gotten used to great basketball and hockey teams with the Detroit Pistons and Detroit Red Wings establishing themselves as annual contenders for earning championship hardware.

But of late, the Detroit Tigers had joined the Detroit Lions as a franchise in disarray. The Tigers had as much hope of being afloat in the baseball voyage that would have them contending for a playoff berth as the SS Minnow had of returning safely and on time from their "three-hour tour."

There have been many "Skippers" and more "Gilligans" than Tiger fans can or care to remember.

Professors of baseball history have tried to figure out how this storied franchise could have fallen so far and so fast from their string of contenders of the late 1970s through the late 1980s. The team hasn't been above .500 for the season, let alone been in a playoff hunt.

This year's edition of the Detroit Tigers has been anything but a rudderless baseball ship. This years Tigers team has already strung together five winning streaks of at least five wins (6, 5, 6, 7, 8), while only experiencing one losing streak as long as four games.

Detroit Tigers Prodigal Son Returns

Baseball fans around the country have probably been wondering, "who are these guys?"

Jim Leyland became "one of these guys" when he was named the 36th manager in Detroit Tigers history on October 4, 2005, earning an opportunity that many thought he would have begun his managing tenure back in the early 1980s.

Just when it looked like he was an heir apparent for piloting the big league team that originally signed him as a catcher, employed him as a minor league coach for a year, and manager for 11 years, Detroit hired some guy named Sparky Anderson. The moved paid off for the Tigers' organization, but sent Leyland looking for his major league managing opportunity elsewhere.

After 14 years of managing at the major league level with three different teams (Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins, and Colorado Rockies), including a World Series championship with the Florida Marlins in 1997, Leyland eventually traded the managerial side of baseball in for that of major league scout with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Now, Tiger fans are thrilled that when Leylands' former boss while he was manager for the Marlins, Dave Dombrowski, came calling for him to fill the manager's job in Detroit. The Tigers' version of the prodigal son said "yes" and returned to the Tigers organization..

After a recent stretch against the New York Yankees, Boston, the Chicago White Sox, and Toronto which saw the Tigers go 5-8, while giving away late inning leads in five of those losses, Detroit has won 13 and lost 17 against teams with a .500 record or better. The gives the Tigers a win percentage against .500 or better teams of .403.

Against those teams under .500, their record stands at 29-7, which includes the 13th-inning win against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays Monday night. The equates to a win percentage against these sub-.500 teams of .806.

Leyland has consistently downplayed the early success and continues to preach "nothing matters until October" when they finish the regular season. But Tiger fans are leaving that one game at a time talk to the "Skipper."

But Leyland must do this. His team is filled with players who must learn what it takes to win.

He has young flame-throwers like Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Joel Zumaya, all of whom keep the radar gun technicians busy with pitches that singe the plate near or over 100 miles per hour.

Just ask Troy Glaus, third baseman for Toronto, who recently saw, or heard, five pitches of 100 mph or more in one at bat against Zumaya in the final game of their series against Detroit on Sunday.

Baskin Robbins or Rotisserie Chicken?

Along with the young heaters, the Tiger staff has the veteran Kenny Rogers, who has helped lead the young pitching staff with his experience and guile on the mound. Forget about the Kenny Rogers Roasters jokes.

Rogers is more Baskin Robbins than rotisserie chicken.

It seems Rogers, has more pitches than Baskin Robbins has ice cream with his multitude of pitch selections. Fastball, curve, slider, cutter, change-up, different release points, different speeds, different locations, over and over and over.

So far, Rogers has served up sweet results for the Tigers and his mantra has been scooped up by the youthful Tiger pitching staff.

All of these factors have helped create the first buzz of a contending team at Comerica Park, the relatively new home of the Tigers.

Attendance is up, especially with the exits of the Detroit Red Wings in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs and the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Those two teams had the best regular season record in their respective sports. Ho-hum, business as usual for their regular season success.

The best record in baseball, belonging to the Detroit Tigers? For Tigers fans, that is nothing to yawn about. It doesn't matter that this is June.

After the extra-inning win against the Devil Rays tonight, the Tigers will play nine more games in a row against teams with sub-.500 records. Then the next "exam" is scheduled, with summer school subjects being supplied by the interleague opponents St. Louis and Houston.

By the Numbers

When you look at the balance of the schedule, the Tigers play 58 of their remaining games against teams currently below .500 and will take the field for 40 games against teams that have records, as of June 12, at or above .500.

If Detroit continues to play the pretenders (sub-.500 teams), over the next 58 games the way they have through the first 36 games with those teams, winning at a clip of just over 80% (.806), the Tigers would win 46.7 of those games. I will round down to 46.

Against the contenders, the numbers have been much more modest, with Detroit winning just above 40% (.403).

Should the Tigers continue to play at the same win percentage against the teams at .500 or above, with 40 games left with teams that fit that criteria, they would win 16 of them.

Add the two win totals together, 46+16 gives them 62 wins in the last 98 games on the schedule. Combined with the 41 wins the Tigers currently have and you have 103 victories.

If there was ever a game of and for numbers, it is baseball, so by the percentages, the Tigers would seem to be contenders for sure.

Final Regular Season Exams Begin in August

For all of these numbers to mean anything, Detroit must continue to play well. If they do, August 11 should be the beginning of the final regular season examination schedule for the Tigers.

On that date, Detroit will begin a 20-game stretch of games against the White Sox (3-A), the Red Sox (3-A), Rangers (4-H), Indians (3-A), and finally three games at New York in the House the Ruth Built.

What would Leyland have to say about all this hypothesizing? Probably something like, "don't give me any of that about numbers and wins for games we ain't even played yet!"

Tiger fans haven't been able to do this for almost two decades. Let them have some fun. They deserve it.

Contenders or pretenders?

I say the Detroit Tigers are contenders.

Now, if they could just do something with those Lions. Wait, let them work on one miracle at a time in Motown.