NBA Playoffs: Forecasting the Final Four

If the general public could take their collective eyes off the WNBA and Indiana's league leading 3-0 record for one second, they would realize something great is taking place.

If the general public could turn away from American Idol for more than a moment, they could tune in to something much more entertaining.

Season finales for Lost, House, 24, and Desperate Housewives?

Who cares when you have drama, comedy, competition, and eliminations all wrapped up in one program ... the NBA playoffs?

Nothing I thought I'd be saying a couple of weeks ago. But, alas, here we are.

Four teams.

One ring.

From the start, every one of these teams seemed to have a decent chance. No one would have written off Dallas, Detroit, Phoenix, or Miami as possible championship contenders at the start of the season. In fact, they were probably four of the top six or seven favorites to get this far.

There are no surprises at this point. Just a history. WIth few exceptions, every team knows what to expect out of the other. After the practices, the film sessions, and the gameplans, there is simply the execution. Every time a player comes up big, it's not a surprise any more, it's just that player living up to his expectations, whether it be the public's or the coach's.

Miami. Dallas. Phoenix. Detroit.

These teams belong here, kids. The easy way, the hard way, it doesn't matter anymore. They got here.

So, with four teams left standing fighting it out over one ring, it's time to break down each team and tell you why they will win, and why they will lose.

Detroit Pistons

Why They Will Win

Who, out of the four remaining teams, has won an NBA championship in the last five years?

Even though they stand at a 1-2 game deficit in their series with the Heat, Detroit still gets the nod as the favorite to capture a ring this year because of their experience.

You can complain all you want about their apparent lack of focus and intensity. You can tell me that they don't respect Flip Saunders, and that there's a better likelihood that Rasheed Wallace will draw a technical foul during half-time for performing with the cheerleaders than there is a chance of the team listening to their coach.

All of that doesn't matter because the Detroit Pistons are still the Detroit Pistons.

The proved it in Game 2 of this series, and they surely proved it in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Cleveland.

Why are they arrogant? Because they can be. They can turn on the defense and the intensity when they want to. This team feels that there's no one out there better than them, and they are right. They've been down in series before, and they have come back and won championships.

You're telling me that Detroit should be scared because they are down 1-2 against Miami? Are you kidding me?

Ask Shaq when the last time he won a ring was. Ask Shaq what city he was in the last time he did it.

And if you really want to know how bad Miami is lacking in the experience department, ask Pat Riley when the last time he won a ring was.

Detroit is still the team to be feared the most in the playoffs. Their offense has caught up to their defense, and together, nobody stands a chance.

Why They Won't Win

Is it really that out of the realm of possibility that Rasheed Wallace could really get a technical foul during half-time for performing with the cheerleaders?

Unfortunately, the answer to that question is no.

I believe 'Sheed has the ability to get seven technicals called on him in seven seconds. The only thing saving him in that respect is that silly rulebook thing.

Detroit has no chance of advancing to the NBA finals over the Miami Heat. Flip Saunders, while being brought to Detroit to bring a little offense to the defense mix, somehow lost his team during the second half of the season. Winning came easy in the Eastern Conference during the season for the reigning Eastern Conference champions, but when times got tough against the Cavaliers in the second round, the new Detroit team showed its face. It is one not marked by intensity from start to finish, but rather one marked by weariness and age.

It seems that in Game 7 against the Cavs, the defense for the Pistons showed up out of instinct and necessity, not ability or desire.

Right now, the Pistons are an aging father watching, for the first time, their young son beat them in the front-yard in a one-on-one game. The son (the Heat) has grown up and is ready to knock down dad for the first time after being the whipping boy for too many years.

The smug look the Pistons' faces? That's just leftover from before, from when they were the big bully in the front-yard.

Unfortunately, the only thing left that is making the Pistons believe in their team anymore is that smug feeling of superiority.

Why aren't they going to the NBA finals?

Because that smug feeling isn't justified anymore. Junior is about to beat the old fogie.

Miami Heat

Why They Will Win

Four letters.

Shaq. Wade.

The Heat are led by one of the best young players in the NBA, as well as one of the best aging veterans of the league.

It seems that a little bit of Wade's youth has gotten into Shaq's blood because he is playing like a man (with a boy's enthusiasm) on a mission. He may realize that he is at the tail end of his career and this year might be the best chance he has to make a substantial contribution to his team. There is a sense of focused energy about Shaq the last few weeks that we haven't seen in awhile. At once, he is having fun while being a leader — clowning around while keeping the team together.

All season long, Miami has won because of their athletic ability and their energy. Jason Williams was a great addition at point guard, and he has done nothing but give the two superstars chances to shine.

At this moment, the squad is working together just like Pat Riley dreamed it up during the offseason. The team he built to contend and beat Detroit en route to the NBA finals is leading the Eastern Conference Finals 2-1.

On the back of Shaq, and on the legs of Wade, the Heat are controlling the tempo and pushing Detroit at every opportunity. The defense, the rebounds, the intensity ... they all belong to Miami at this moment, and they are what is going to carry them into the finals.

Why They Won't Win

Isn't Shaq due for one of those games when he plays 20 minutes because of foul trouble?

Isn't Antoine Walker due for one of those games when he goes 3-of-17 from the field?

If Kobe and LeBron couldn't carry their teams by themselves, is there really a chance that Wade can do the same?

The real question when it comes to the Heat is how long can Pat Riley keep the disjointed parts together. Putting two superstars in Wade and Shaq on the floor with two known headcases in Williams and Walker can't be a recipe for success.

They had plenty of rest and time off after knocking out the Nets in the second round, and this is the only reason why they are up 2-1 against Detroit. The Pistons are tired from a seven games against the Cavs while the Heat having been relaxing in the spa and on the beach.

Of course the Heat look energetic right now, but wait and see what happens as the series goes deeper. Watch Wade slow down a step, and watch Shaq look sluggish. Watch the Detroit defense wrap around Miami and not let go. Watch those jump shots start clanging off the front of the rim. All of those drives to the basket and easy jump shots are going to stop once Miami starts to get a little bit tired.

Watch Miami slow down, and watch the parts slowly come apart as they do.

Dallas Mavericks

Why They Will Win

Dirk, Dirk, and some more Dirk.

As a whole, the Mavericks are playing some of the most consistent basketball in the playoffs. They swept in the first round, and then toppled the reigning NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs.

What better resume can you put together for the team that has the best chance of winning it all this year?

Dirk Nowitzki has come into his own as a true MVP-type player. Where he once settled for jump shots and nifty moves in the lane, he is now taking the ball to the basket like a seven-foot beast. Dallas has enough quality outside shooters to allow for Dirk to work in the paint a little more, and he is taking advantage to the benefit of himself and the team.

Since Dallas lacks a true scoring center, it is up to Nowitzki to provide that inside offense that is going to allow Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry to score from the perimeter.

So far, so good.

It doesn't look like the Mavs are going to get tired trying to keep up with the Suns. In fact, Dallas has controlled the tempo for the majority of the time, and if not for a torrid comeback by Phoenix in Game 1, Dallas would be easily leading this series 2-0.

As it stands, the series is tied going into tonight's Game 3 — however, the experience the Mavs got from taking down the Spurs in the second round is going to give them all the confidence in the world to beat the Suns.

Why They Won't Win

All season Dallas had been looking forward to a matchup with the Spurs in the playoffs.

They got it, and the won it.

Too bad it wasn't in the Western Conference Finals.

The Mavs are going to have a huge letdown against the Suns in this series. They had their finals already in the second round, and all that adrenaline, all that intensity, and all that urgency is gone.

Dallas got all geeked up about the Spurs, and nothing is going to be left for the Suns.

That's not to mention that Dallas spent seven games playing a style of defense that isn't going to work against Phoenix. Steve Nash and company are not going to stop running — ever.

Dallas can try all they want to get into a half-court set, but one turnover or rebound later, and they are back to the races. They are just not built to run for six or seven games. Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker were runners. Nowitzki and DeSagana Diop are not. With no big men back quickly on defense, Phoenix is going to thrive in the lane. Steve Nash is going to live in the paint, and there is nothing the Mavs can do about it because they just aren't fast enough.

Mark Cuban can scream all he wants to, and Dirk Nowitzki can make all the amazing shots in the world, but nothing short of a dirtbike is going to help them defend the Suns' fastbreak.

Phoenix Suns

Why They Will Win

Because I believe that even if the Mavs score 109 points, Phoenix will score 135.

When everyone assumed that because the Mavs had beaten the Spurs that they were going to the finals, Phoenix was sitting quietly in the background waiting for the actual games to start. And, in Game 1 they proved that they belong. They proved that Dirk and Dallas were really not that great. Fine, you beat the Spurs, but you still have to beat us.

After taking some shots because of his play in the early rounds of the playoffs, Steve Nash has taken charge and taken the Suns to the Western Conference Finals. Nash and Phoenix control the tempo of the game, push Dallas at every chance, and provide threats from the outside and inside.

Shawn Marion is just one example of the type of athleticism that is going to push the Suns into the finals. As a collective, they present a myriad of different options and looks in a split second. Ally-oop dunks one trip down the floor, and a three-point bomb the next.

The Suns are going to shoot lights-out in this series, and they are going to shoot themselves into the next round.

Why They Won't Win

Two things need to happen for the Suns to win a game.

1. They need to control the tempo.
2. They need to hit their three-pointers.

If either one of these things don't happen, the Suns don't win.

The rebounds and turnovers feed the fastbreak, and from there Phoenix dominates the perimeter and the paint.

The problem? Phoenix is hit or miss. They are streaky.

Defense wins championships, not three-pointers.

The Suns depend on scoring 115 points to win games, because they can't hold the opposition under 100 to save their lives.

The Phoenix offense is a living organism, and if any of the parts aren't working properly, it dies.

Which is fine if you're playing the Lakers.

It doesn't work so well when you're playing the Mavericks.

Sure, Steve Nash is allowed to have a bad game or two, he's only human. But at this point in the season, at this point in the series, one or two bad games means one or two losses for the Suns.

WIth one loss already in the books, you can pretty much guarantee that Phoenix will not play a perfect series, and every night that the tempo and three-pointers aren't perfectly in their favor means a victory for the Dallas Mavericks.

The Suns can shoot lights out all night sometimes, but once in awhile isn't good enough right now.