In the era of parity, a couple of "surprise" teams emerge every season to snatch playoff berths from proverbial favorites. Below, I take an early shot at predicting which teams will improve, and which teams will leave their fan bases wishing for last season. Please take these with a grain of salt. Obviously, I won't be so enthused about the Chargers' chances if LaDainian Tomlinson's knee gets "Willis McGaheed" during a preseason game.
Under the Radar
Arizona Cardinals
Last year, they were the trendy pick to win the NFC West, but the "experts" were simply a year early in touting this team. I began hyping this squad as my "sleeper" team before they signed Edgerrin James. His addition only increases the likelihood of a rare winning season for the Arizona Cardinals.
This team possesses much of what I look for when searching for under valued teams: blossoming young talent, the ability to score points in bunches, a relatively weak schedule, and Kurt Warner at quarterback. Okay, so I made that last one up, but I still really like all the young studs on this roster. The talent level, coupled with the fact they play in the NFC West, should produce a playoff berth at the very least.
San Diego Chargers
Much like Arizona, the Chargers had plenty of hype entering last season, and were widely considered "the best team not to make the playoffs." The facts that they didn't make the playoffs last year, lost Drew Brees to free agency, and play in the stacked AFC West have them entering the '06 season without much pub.
I'm not huge on Philip Rivers, but at the same time, I really didn't think Drew Brees was anything more than a product of the talent around him, namely Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson. If Rivers can avoid pulling a Joey Harrington, I think the Chargers will end up stealing the AFC West. All the other pieces are in place.
Baltimore Ravens
It wasn't too long ago that the Ravens were perennial favorites in the AFC North. Thanks to the Steelers' Super Bowl run and the emergence of the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore has become third wheel in this particular division. Everything that could go wrong last season did for the Ravens — the Jamal Lewis prison situation, injuries to Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Kyle Boller. The list goes on.
Lewis should run a lot harder this year, assuming he has shed his prison fat, and the addition of Mike Anderson all but insures a power running game anyways. Couple that with a healthy Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and I wouldn't rule the Ravens out of the AFC North race.
Atlanta Falcons
It's hard to believe I get to list this team as underrated. Each of the past few years, I considered them to be a highly overrated team. This season, however, nobody really seems to be talking about the Falcons or their star quarterback, Michael Vick. The Panthers, Bucs, and even the Saints have dominated the NFC South headlines this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Falcons quietly made a very bold move in acquiring John Abraham. His presence gives them a legit pro bowler on the defensive line, and all of a sudden, they are pretty deep at this crucial position. The running game should remain strong, and I expect an improvement in the passing game, especially if Roddy White can become a factor in the offense. Don't be at all surprised if Atlanta eclipses Carolina this season in the NFC South.
Overrated
Seattle Seahawks
It took them a while to gain national notoriety last year, and it's a shame they didn't get it earlier because I have a feeling things are about to go downhill. In a league that has as much personnel turnover as the NFL does, standing pat just won't cut it. They still have plenty of good players, but the loss of Steve Hutchinson was huge. There is no way for them to replace him at this point. His loss and the fact that Shaun Alexander finally got paid should lead to a healthy decline in the productivity of their running game. They still share a division with San Francisco and St. Louis, so they should be able to muster 9-10 wins, but I'd be awfully surprised if they duplicated their Super Bowl run of last season.
Denver Broncos
They are facing essentially the same problem as the Seahawks. They had a very good team last year, but have jettisoned key parts this offseason without adequately replacing them. Losing Trevor Pryce and Mike Anderson was big with the loss of Pryce looming especially large. He was the one true difference-maker on their defensive line. Complicating things is the fact that the Broncos also happen to play in what I consider the NFL's best division. They aren't dead in the water yet, but I don't expect them to repeat as AFC West champions.
The NFC East
I don't even know where to start with this mediocre four-pack. It's such a joke that this division is being labeled as the toughest in football. Toughest to figure out maybe, but it certainly isn't the best top to bottom. Even in the mediocre NFC, not a single one of these teams is a viable Super Bowl contender at this point. A "stacked" division should have at least one team that is a Super Bowl favorite not a bunch of also-rans who are all wildcard warriors at best. Watching this division unfold will be exciting, though. These four teams are evenly matched, and no order of finish would surprise me. It really is up in the air.
Houston
Can a team that went 2-14 the previous season be overrated? I think so. They haven't drafted Reggie Bush yet, but it seems inevitable at this point. He really is awesome, but how much of a difference can he make as a rookie? Running back was the least of their worries last season, and they have done virtually nothing to address their laundry list of needs. Eric Moulds? Give me a break, maybe five years ago.
Yet once Bush is drafted, you will begin to hear rumblings of 8-8 or 9-7. It's not going to happen. They will certainly be more entertaining to watch with Bush, and they likely will break the three-win plateau this season. 5-11 or 6-10 is possible if things go their way, but anything more would be a miracle.
Here's my early prediction on how the playoffs we will shape up:
AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indy
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC West: San Diego
NFC East: Dallas wins some sort of tiebreaker
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC North: Chicago
NFC West: Arizona
AFC Wildcards: Kansas City and Jacksonville
NFC Wildcards: Carolina and Seattle
AFC Championship: Indy over San Diego
NFC Championship: Arizona over Atlanta
Super Bowl: Indy over Arizona
April 12, 2006
Don Cohen:
Arizona to the Super Bowl?
The sleeper should be Carolina. They are loaded, well coached and hungry.
We agree in the AFC. Indy won’t be denied even without James. Ravens could be their monkey wrench.
April 13, 2006
Anthony Brancato:
Right now I like Atlanta strongly in the NFC South: The Buccaneers are taking the biggest jump in strength of schedule in the entire NFL (the Falcons and Chargers shared that distinction a year ago, and dropped from a combined 23-9 in 2004 to a combined 17-15 in 2005; the year before that it was the Rams, who plunged from 12-4 in 2003 to 8-8 in 2004), and, like the Falcons themselves, Carolina has never had two winning seasons back-to-back. Seattle is toast because of the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx, and the Bears have “one-year flash in the pan” written all over them.
So that leaves the East winner to take on the Falcons in the NFC title game, and I foresee a two-team race in the East as Dallas and Washington both separated themselves from the Giants with far more productive off-seasons. And the Eagles? McNabb won’t hold up until even Columbus Day with the blitzers coming on every down, and it wouldn’t shock me one bit if Philly holds the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft.
My opinions on the AFC are not as strong at this point, although I do think the Dolphins have the inside track in the East, the Steelers in the North (the Bengals have both schedule issues and a huge injury cloud hanging over their heads regarding Carson Palmer), the Colts to fall off several games in 2006 but still hang on in the South (the Jaguars overachieved big-time in ‘05 and are nowhere near a 12-4 team on paper), and the Chargers quite possibly rebounding in the West (they take a big drop in schedule difficulty this year in contrast to the huge rise they were saddled with last season).