New Ballpark, Same Aspirations in St. Louis

Analyzing the National League shows there is no clear favorite for the pennant. The Astros, last year's NL champions, are in flux, with questions about their ability to score runs and whether Roger Clemens will return to the rotation in May. The young Braves overachieved in 2005. This year will be a test, especially since Leo Mazzone has taken his nervous to-and-fro rocking to Baltimore. The Mets look stronger, but all will depend on a fragile rotation in New York. The West is a disaster area with nobody looking a pennant contender.

That leaves the Redbirds as most experts' choice for the NL. But the offseason in St Louis hasn't been a straightforward case of upgrading for a comfortable ride to the NL Central crown and beyond. Walt Jocketty, GM, has had to mend and make do in a number of areas that leaves the team looking more vulnerable than last year.

In terms of starting pitching, the Cardinals have, at best, stood still. Jocketty got involved in the AJ Burnett sweepstakes, but folded at $38 million for four years. He probably made the right move as the rotation is still the best in the division. Standing still isn't a bad option for a team with a starting pitching ERA of 3.61 compared to the league average of 4.23 and got 6.47 innings per start.

Staff ace Chris Carpenter, fresh off a Cy Young, will be counted on for 220+ innings, 200 strikeouts, and an ERA of 3.00 or less. His rise from mediocre bullpen-fodder in Toronto to the league's most dominant starter is an incredible transformation. With Mazzone moving to the AL, Dave Duncan can claim the crown of the doyen of NL pitching coaches.

Behind Carpenter, there's a drop-off, but there's still a solid enough look to the rotation. Mark Mulder doesn't throw as hard as he did, but he's a respectable number two and Jeff Suppan continues to make the most of his modest talents. Jason Marquis will never be the force many envisaged a few years ago in Atlanta, but he'll throw 200 innings and have an ERA around 4.25. The number five spot is a question mark, but it's hardly an issue come October. Matt Morris' departure won't have anyone shedding tears after a couple of mediocre seasons.

The bullpen has been overhauled, but that's hardly of much consequence given Tony La Russa's "by the numbers" approach to using the 'pen. Ray King, Cal Eldred, and Julian Tavarez are out and Mets cast-off RHP Bradon Looper, ex-Oakland LHP Ricardo Rincon, and holdovers Brad Thompson and Randy Flores are in. Looper is slated as the primary link to closer Jason Isringhausen, but he'll need all of Duncan's guile and patience to rebuild his fragile confidence. The 'pen will miss Al Reyes, lost to injury, more than anyone else. Reyes posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.84 WHIP during his time as a Card.

It's not pitching that could cost the Cards a shot at the World Series. The weak point looks the batting lineup. Albert Pujols aside, this is not the force it was in 2004. Scott Rolen was lost for most of 2005 and comes into this season with a question mark hanging over him. Can he ever be the same after shoulder surgery? Third base offered only a .700 OPS last year in St Louis, significantly below Rolen's career average of .890 and way less than his 1.004 production in 2004. If Rolen and his shoulder flounder, then the Cards only have Jim Edmonds as protection for Pujols. Edmonds is a safe bet for 20+ homers and around 80 RBIs, as well as offering a CF master class, but he's a declining force in the batters box and has had hamstring problems.

The rest of the cast is uninspiring, but functional enough. Eckstein gets on base and plays gritty defense. He's a sparkplug that energizes a team without having any exceptional tools. Behind him, Aaron Miles has beaten out Junior Spivey at second. Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion were picked up as free agents to replace Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker in the corner outfield spots. Encarnacion has never fulfilled the promise he showed in Detroit and has failed to stick in either Florida or Los Angeles. Expect mediocre production at the plate, but an amazing throwing arm. LF is a mess with Larry Bigbie the coaching staff's favorite long-term over weak-hitting So Taguchi and slugger John Rodriguez, who needs to reduce his strikeouts.

But with a new ballpark and the best fans in the game, if I were a Cards fan, I'd be a little peeved at both the lack of high-profile offseason activity and how the money that was available was spent. Encarnacion was an unimaginative choice to fill a corner outfield spot, especially at $15 million for three years. Jocketty could have had Jeremy Burnitz, who offers greater power and consistency, for similar or less. Burnett maybe was too pricey for what he offers, but Kevin Millwood might have been a nice compliment to Carpenter and Mulder come October, when you can get nervous sending out a Jason Marquis or Jeff Suppan type. $13 million plus over three years for Braden Looper is reckless spending that only Paris Hilton would be proud of.

All-in-all, the Cardinals couldn't make the World Series last year and this year's roster looks slightly worse. Second base has declined from Mark Grudzielanek and the outfield is poorer for the departure of Walker and Sanders, still embroiled in his mission to wear every MLB uniform before he gets as old as Julio Franco. That said, if Rolen stays healthy all year and Jim Edmonds can halt his steady decline, the Cards have enough to win the Central and challenge the Mets for the NL pennant.