To all college basketball fans, Sunday was the time to open the presents under the backboard as "Roundball Christmas" came and went. Over the next three weekends, 65 teams will try to prove their worth in the Big Dance. For now, though, it's up to us casual observers to tear down and break apart the unaltered brackets.
As with every year, the tournament field will supply plenty of arguments for analysts and fans. Which matchups have "fruitcake" written all over them? Who will accept Cinderella's glass snowshoe this year? Fortunately, we can peacefully agree to disagree, thanks to the wonderful spirit of Yule blogging. So, as I sleep and await the dawn of Thursday morning, here's what is dancing through my head.
There's always bickering about who got what seed, or some team that just got in, or those that didn't get their invite. I think the selection committee did an interesting thing this year by throwing several mid-major teams into the mix. George Mason, Bradley, and Utah State can thank the heavens for such leniency. However, the one team that shocked me most when the seeds were revealed was the Air Force Academy.
Despite their affiliation with a weaker Mountain West, I still thought the Falcons had a chance to slide into the field. Well, I had that thought until they lost in the conference tourney quarters to seventh-seeded Wyoming. This turn of events ultimately took the spot I had reserved for Cincinnati, who ended up with a .500 record in (arguably) the year's toughest league. Add in a strong RPI and SOS, and I thought the Bearcats were locks to get to the Dance, despite losing to Syracuse last week.
Speaking of the Orange, they start my rant about the seeds. Sure, once the 'Cuse beat Cincy (and especially Connecticut), they were assured an NCAA spot. However, by going on their magical run, Gerry McNamara and company vaulted to a fifth seed. What? Are you kidding? Nobody thought they would be in the tournament without pulling out a win in New York, and now they vault to a near top-four placement? I don't get it.
As high as Syracuse was in the eyes of the Indy crew, George Washington must not have meant a hill of beans. Sure, the Colonials were in a watered-down Atlantic 10. Yes, they played down the stretch without Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Then again, G.W. did win without their star player until their tourney quarterfinal loss to Temple. And Karl Hobbs did lead them to the best record in the country (26-2). It sort of makes you wonder how far the team would have dropped had they lost to Charlotte in the regular season finale.
Now, I may think some of these decisions are unfair, but I don't get the chance to debate the decisions or berate anyone who made them. That's pretty much what happened during CBS' Selection Show. After the brackets were revealed, the on-air crew did their annual spiel where they ask the committee chairperson about the final product. When it came time to turn to Jim Nantz and Billy Packer, their outrage over the Missouri Valley selections came through in earnest.
They do have the right to ask why the ACC and MVC had the same number of teams in the tournament. However, their line of questioning was based on illogical circumstances. Okay, the MVC has one win in the last three years. But did you consider that only seven teams were there in a group of 195? It's also true that the ACC has 31 wins over the same time span. Then again, that conference has had 15 bids, with most early opponents being cupcake programs from leagues like the SWAC, Ohio Valley, Ivy, and so on.
The worst was yet to come, though. At the end of the interview, it was clear that Chairman Craig Littlepage had one final comment. Nantz cut him off, not once, but twice. And before any media people go biting my head off, I know the situation. I've worked in television the last few years, and I understand that commercial breaks and programming times drive a telecast. But you can end a lengthy interview with politeness and class, something the Final Four broadcast team didn't do.
Nantz and Packer were plain rude and unprofessional in that interview, something that doesn't happen often, and hopefully won't go on in the future.
All right, enough with the unpleasant ravings from my soapbox. On to a quick peek at the bracket.
The strongest region in the tournament belongs to Minneapolis. This section has the most balanced top eight, with Big 10 regular-season champ Ohio State, tourney-tested Florida, and Boston College ready to challenge top-seed Villanova.
I think the best 8-9 contest will be surging Arkansas battling giant-killer Bucknell in Dallas. I believe the winner of this game also has a very good shot at knocking off Memphis in round two.
Two sleepers I have making it to the Sweet 16 are the Razorbacks/Bison winner and Wichita State. Tennessee is high as a two-seed, and I believe the Volunteers will be undone by a gritty Shockers squad.
The most dangerous team in the tournament is Kansas, and that's hard for me to say as a Missouri Tigers fan. Bill Self has done an outstanding job of turning his freshmen and sophomores into a group of well-winged flyers. The Jayhawks are smoking, winning 15 of their last 16.
My crystal ball is also showing me a couple of bigger upsets in the first round. If you ask anyone in the know, Michigan State has the tools to make a run. Unfortunately, they are also a highly schizophrenic machine (4-6 in their last 10). That's not something you want to rely on when facing a steady George Mason team (only three losses since Dec. 31).
And even though I might get some lashes from upstate New Yorkers, I think that Syracuse's magical run will end with a bow out courtesy of Texas A&M. The Aggies are pretty long and lean and athletic, something you need to get around that Orange manzone. It'll stay close, but A&M will pull it out late.
Finally, I'll move past the first round and get to the meat. I've got Connecticut, Florida, Texas, and UCLA getting to Indianapolis in two weeks. UConn will have too much inside presence for the Gators, and Texas holds the height and experience card over the Bruins. The Huskies and 'Horns should provide us with a fantastic championship game, but the burnt orange team doesn't have Vince Young on the court. Santa will leave a championship trophy in UConn's stocking for the third time in seven years.
I hope everyone enjoys the Madness. Hot shooting to all, and to all a slam-dunk.
March 14, 2006
Jeff Pohlmeyer:
Nice analysis. I don’t know that Florida is disciplined enough to go deep. They seem to be like old Cincinnati teams: a decent coach with great athletes, but they’re too undisciplined to win in the later rounds. You talked about Michigan State possibly bowing out in the first round, which is possible, but they’re also very capable of making a run. They have the talent to beat UConn if they make it that far, but that’s a big if. I also don’t think people are giving Memphis enough credit. C-USA is weak, but they did beat Gonzaga, Tennesse, and UCLA, while two of their three losses came to Duke and Texas. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they’ll win it all, but don’t be surprised if you see them hanging around at the Final Four. I’ve got Duke, Villanova, UCLA, and Michigan State in the Final Four with the Wildcats taking it over Duke.