The Teams That Will Break Hearts

It's that time of year again. Pseudo college basketball experts in all corners of the country will soon convene around their given water-coolers and pretend to know how the NCAA tournament will unfold.

Due to my gambling habit, I watch more college basketball than anyone this side of Jay Bilas. However, as much as I do I know, I still lack the crystal ball that other sports geniuses seem to possess. While I can't predict the future, I can salvage your brackets ahead of time by giving you my list of 10 high-seeded teams who will not cut the nets down in St. Louis.

And yes, I'm aware that the brackets aren't out yet, and that matchups have a lot to do with basketball, but it really doesn't matter. Everyone is going to to have to beat a couple of tough teams to win it all, and the teams below will prove incapable.

The following are teams seeded fourth or higher in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology, in no particular order:

10) Iowa

I'll start with my alma mater. Iowa is a nice, senior-laden team with a solid backcourt. Over the next few weeks, you will hear how important these two traits are, but Iowa still lacks the offensive punch necessary to win six tough games in a three-week span. They aren't deep enough, and they will struggle if grouped with more athletic squads.

Maximum upside — Elite Eight

9) West Virginia

This team has been so trendy and public this year. I really don't get it, and I am one more ESPN feature on Kevin Pittsnogle's tattoos away from trading in my television set. They have some nice players, but they are really, really soft inside. Their gimmick 1-3-1 defense is ripe for any team that can move the ball inside. They live and die by the three, and I would be shocked if they duplicated last year's Elite 8 run.

Maximum upside — Sweet 16, could go down round one

8) UCLA

UCLA's hype this year is a product of a horrifically weak Pac-10, and the flashy name on the front of their jerseys. Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo get tons of publicity, and they aren't bad players, but there are plenty of comparable guard tandems out there. They will be seeded third, and will be an nice target for a six- or 11-seed in round two.

Maximum upside — Sweet 16, another round one upset alert

7) North Carolina

They are really hot lately, especially after the win over Duke. This team could be a trendy Final Four pick so long as they don't draw (UConn). They really don't have a shot, though. They are super young, and I really don't think they are even close to being as good as some people think. They might have huge upside down the line, but their success this year is a product of a weak, watered-down ACC.

Maximum upside — Elite Eight

6) Gonzaga

Sure, Adam Morrison is awesome, and his puberty ‘stache is glorious, but they don't play defense. Not a lick. They are fun to watch, but they will get blitzed by a good offensive team or by someone who has a guy capable of containing Morrison. It'd be a great story of they could make a run, but they will start to struggle in round two.

Maximum upside — Final Four with a generous draw

5) George Washington

They have all the same problems as Gonzaga, minus the fact that these guys don't have an Adam Morrison to fall back on. Temple really exposed them the other day, and I'd be lying if I said I didn't see it coming. I honestly think they have the worst shot of anyone on this list of reaching the Final Four. Doesn't help their case that their best player, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, just suffered a moderately-serious knee injury recently. Nice story, though.

Maximum upside — Round two

4) Pittsburgh

This team wasn't going to make my list. They have all the qualities that matter in March. They are tough, play defense, can score inside and out, but the problem is that Carl Krauser will be the undoing of this squad. He is a great player, but too often he tries to do it all himself. If Krauser doesn't force the issue, this team has a shot, but I have a feeling he will and in a bad spot, too.

Maximum upside — Elite Eight

3) Tennessee

They obviously can play a little if they have won all these games, but I really feel like they are too reliant on the three-point shot. Chris Lofton is their star, but his game is predicated on getting hot from outside. They lack the inside game necessary to run a potent half-court offense. Their trump card is the full-court press they utilize, but quality guard play can easily overcome this. Bruce Pearl has this program headed in the right direction, but anything more than a Sweet 16 appearance would be hoping for too much.

Maximum upside — Sweet 16, first-round casualty alert

2) Duke

This isn't your older brother's Duke team. They are solid to be sure, but they simply lack the "wow" factor that they had over the last decade or so. J.J. Redick is a good player who can surely score the ball, but where is his help on the offensive end? Josh McRoberts hasn't developed fast enough, and Sheldon Williams is a poor man's Theo Ratliff. If Lee Melchionni and Sean Dockery aren't knocking down the open looks, these guys are in huge trouble.

Maximum upside — Final Four, but I expect them to lose in the Sweet 16

1) Illinois

This was the toughest call on my list. I had it down to LSU and Illinois. I made my decision based on the fact that if these two met on a neutral court, I'd like LSU to beat Illinois. Illinois is a really nice team with plenty of tournament experience, but I just really feel like they lack the parts needed for a return Final Four trip.

Maximum upside — Elite Eight

One of these six teams will cut down the nets: UConn, Villanova, Ohio State, Memphis, LSU, or Texas