Don’t Fear the Dukies

Is anyone scared to face the Duke Blue Devils come tournament time? They shouldn't, because since their championship run back in 2001, Mike Krzyzewski's teams have consistently fallen short of the lofty goal they annually set for themselves, the NCAA title.

In 2002, as a No. 1 seed they were knocked off by a less-talented Indiana team in the round of 16. The following year, which was J.J. Redick's first, they were again sent home in the Sweet 16. This time it was as a No. 3 seed to Kansas. In Redick's second season, Duke made it to the Final Four as a No. 1 seed, but they were ousted by the Connecticut, who went on to win the title. And last year, Duke succumbed as a No. 1 seed in the round of 16, this time to a far less talented, but more determined Michigan State team.

Three of the last four years Duke has not advanced to the Elite 8, yet with the way they are obsessed over, one would find it hard to imagine that this powerhouse does not consistently make the Final Four each season.

I really wish the Blue Devils had not lost twice last week, because now it seems like I am piling on. I hope they win the ACC tournament, so all the hype can re-emerge. That way, people will be even more shocked when a rough and tumble squad does the unthinkable and knocks Duke out before the national semis for the fourth time in the last five years.

The reasons for their recent late-season decline are quite evident — fatigue. Their best player right now is J.J. Redick, and in the last four games, he is shooting field goals at a 29% clip, while managing to make a little more 22% from behind the arc. And that is a consistent trend in Redick's game — the longer the season goes, the more he wears down.

It makes sense that Redick is fatigued — he is the most marked man in the country. There might be a scoring war in the magazines, but Gonzaga is not exactly playing elite competition on a night in and night out basis. While Adam Morrison continues to light up San Diego, Redick is trying to maintain his average against some of the stiffest opposition the country has to offer.

Every team brings their strongest commitment to winning when they play Duke. The Blue Devils are the most hated team in the country, and their players pay dearly for it in March. Duke only goes seven deep, and their stars, Redick and Sheldon Williams, play an unbelievable amount of minutes. That means every game they are seeing the opposing team's best effort, and it begins to wear on the kids from Durham, as we have seen consistently for the last several years.

Last March, the formula was simple: beat Duke with tough, physical defense on Redick, lure Williams into foul trouble, and hope Daniel Ewing doesn't go off. This year, it's the same formula, except Ewing is gone, and no one else on the team is averaging more than nine points other than the aforementioned two.

So let everyone assume Duke is one of the top two teams in the country, like they do every year. Let everyone put Duke in their Final Four, because they seem to make it every year. They'll be a top seed, just like every year. And if this is indeed like every year, Duke won't be left when it's time to cut down the nets when it matters most.