I'm quick to tease my Sports Central colleagues when their picks and predictions fall awry, but it's been awhile since I've stuck my neck out there myself and made mockable, failing predictions. But fair's fair and it's time I took my turn. We will start with some generalities. If you're foolhardy enough to take my advice and put some financial muster to it, please make sure it's in low denominations of the currency of an emaciated, third-world country.
The WAC is the new MVC. "Domination" is the word I'm leaning towards using in describing their play in Bracket-Buster Weekend. As a conference, they went 3-1 in their highlighted games with the only loss coming when Fresno State, sixth in the WAC, lost a squeaker at Creighton, second in the MVC. Louisiana Tech (alma mater of Karl Malone) beat their MVC opponent (Southern Illinois) on the road. Remember that when NCAA and NIT time roll around.
Via Covers.com, I learn that the "over" has prevailed in 10 consecutive Duke games going into yesterday's game against Georgia Tech. Apparently, the linemakers are afraid to set it in the 160-and-above range, because then they could get killed on the under. I leave over/under wagering to the serious bettors, but I still thought this nugget was interesting. In fact, I would stay away from Duke games entirely. I think they are clearly the No. 1 team in the country and capable of dominating anyone, but their lackluster performances-cum-last-second victories come against surprising teams at surprising times (at home against Virginia Tech and Florida State).
Speaking of Virginia Tech, I remember when their transfer to the ACC was announced, I sarcastically suggested I couldn't wait for the big Virginia Tech vs. Duke basketball games. But the Hokies basketball team seems acutely aware of their subordinate status to the football team and brings their best efforts when playing the best opponents. I would keep that in mind for any game in which Virginia Tech is a heavy underdog, especially in the ACC tournament.
If a team (most recently, Iowa) briefly finds themselves alone atop the Big 10 standings, it's a good idea to go start going against them. The teams of the Big 10 seem determined to create a logjam.
In the Big East, bet on Marquette at home and against them on the road, especially if they are traveling to the Eastern seaboard.
In SEC country, I like how LSU, like Virginia Tech, seems to have something to prove at a football-crazy university. They suffered heartbreaking defeats at Connecticut and at Ohio State, won at West Virginia, and are running away with the SEC West. They are underranked at No. 24. I like them in pretty much any circumstance against the spread and I believe they will emerge from the SEC tournament as champions.
In the Pac-10, go with the underdog in rivalry games (see USC's victory over UCLA and Washington State's sweep of Washington) and the favorites in all other games.
The Big 12 is hard to figure. Not even two months ago, it appeared Kansas State has actually wrested the state basketball title from Kansas. Now, Kansas is atop the Big 12 and Kansas State is 5-7 and not even really on the NCAA bubble anymore. Some nights, Texas brings it. Other nights, they don't. Baylor is starting to look nearly competent at times. Texas A&M is on the rise. I guess the only thing I feel good about is not putting any money on Missouri in any circumstances.
My picks tonight:
South Carolina (-1.5) over GEORGIA
Georgia has lost three in a row, the last one being a thumping at home to Vanderbilt. South Carolina has won three out of four, including a huge win at Florida.
Cal (-2) over WASHINGTON STATE
Washington State is 2-0 against Washington and 2-10 against the rest of the Pac-10. Cal is 10-4 in the Pac-10, fighting for NCAA bubble consideration.
Villanova (-4) over CINCINNATI
We all know how dominant Villanova has been this year, and although Cincinnati should be in good shape for the tourney, they are not going to keep this game as close as the spread.
Fresno State (-2.5) over SAN JOSE STATE
Last game out, Fresno State nearly picked off mighty Creighton on the road. San Jose State (2-10 in the WAC) won't be nearly as much of a challenge.
USC (-1.5) over Oregon
Okay, so it was a rivalry game, but last time USC set foot on their home floor, they took down UCLA by three. But they are only favored by 1.5 over Oregon (6-8 in the Pac 10 while USC is 7-7)? This one is my lock.
So there you are ... in a sport where home-court advantage possibly means more than any other sport, I picked four road teams to win by more than Vegas thinks they will, and I picked the favorites in all five games. As I said, it's only fair to my colleagues that I open myself up to terrible picks. Caveat emptor.
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