The Olympics are here and perhaps the only story bigger than the actual games is the fact that many star players are out due to injury. Scott Niedermayer, Ed Jovanovski, and Markus Naslund are but a few of the goalies unavailable to play in Italy. Does this shift the balance of power for international hockey? Here are my predictions for the "big name" teams participating in the 2006 Olympic hockey tournament.
Canada
Undeniably the favorite in the games even after the rash of injuries on defense, the depth of Canada is remarkable. The fact that Paul Kariya, Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau, Alex Tanguay, and many others didn't make the first cut is a testament to the amazing pool of talent that Canada gets to draw from. On the attack, there is nearly a limitless amount of combinations to use, though you can bet that Joe Thornton and Simon Gagne will be paired up, as will Joe Sakic and Jarome Iginla. Some may argue the choice of players such as Shane Doan, but it's hard to argue with what Canada has.
Defensively, the loss of Niedermayer and Jovanovski will hurt, but not that much. The combination of Bryan McCabe, Robyn Reghyr, Chris Pronger, and Wade Redden give the Canadians a solid mix of toughness, size, and skill. In goal, Martin Brodeur has rounded into top-form, while Roberto Luongo has shaken off his the poor play of the early season and is back to top-tier status. Canada's true question is whether the Rick Tocchet scandal — and Wayne Gretzky's potential involvement with it — will act as a distraction.
Prediction: Gold Medal
Czech Republic
Can you get a puck past the Czech goalies? Reborn-in-Ottawa Dominik Hasek and lightning-quick Tomas Vokoun are both good enough to be the team's number one goalie. Up front, Jaromir Jagr, Robert Lang, Milan Hejduk, and Patrik Elias lead the attack. The Czech defense may not be filled with household names (Stanley Cup champion Pavel Kubina and Toronto's Tomas Kaberle are the most recognizable names), but the group is solid, speedy, and filled with puck movers.
Essentially, the Czech team — always a tight group on and off the ice — is very solid and second only to the Canadians in terms of talent level. The x-factor may be in goal, where Dominik Hasek still haunts every hockey-loving Canadian's nightmare. Expect a hard-fought battle between the Czechs and the Canadians for the gold, with injuries, bounces, and luck determining the winner.
Prediction: Silver Medal
Sweden
Don't worry, Sweden, Tommy Salo is a long ways away, so you can wipe away any memories of Belarus slapshots. In the meantime, New York Ranger sensation Henrik Lundqvist has stepped into the fold. Can he handle the international spotlight? He's passed the first test by staying calm and collected under the glare of New York City's bright lights. The Swedes have an abundance of talent, both on the blue line (Mattias Norstrom, Mattias Ohlund, Nicklas Lidstrom) and up front (Daniel Alfredsson, Mats Sundin, Henrik Zetterberg).
However, the biggest story for Team Sweden is who won't be showing up: Markus Naslund is already out, Peter Forsberg (as of this writing) is almost definitely going to sit out. That's not just two of Team Sweden's top players, that's two of the top players in the entire world missing from the lineup. While Sweden has a history of choking, this team should be more steady thanks to Lundqvist. The absence of Forsberg and Naslund probably eliminates Sweden from winning gold, but don't be surprised if they still contest for a medal.
Prediction: Bronze medal
United States
Don Waddell and company want the public to believe that this is not a transition year. While the U.S. team has enough talent to challenge for a medal (though a long shot for the gold), it's clear that the group is caught between two eras. The older generation of Chris Chelios, Doug Weight, and Keith Tkachuk is representing the team that won the 1996 World Cup and the 2002 silver medal (and the 1998 chair throwing contest), while the younger generation of Erik Cole, Rick Dipietro, and John-Michael Liles will be part of a core that will be representing the U.S. for the next three Olympics.
Team USA is still waiting for Ryan Suter, Jack Johnson, Phil Kessell, and a whole slew of great young talent to enter into the NHL and mature. In the meantime, coach Peter Laviolette is hoping that his squad brings the best of both worlds — youthful exuberance and veteran savvy. The presence of Laviolette — and his experience with a similar style group in Carolina — will be an advantage, and the U.S. has the good fortune of John Grahame getting hot over the past six weeks. There's no chance for a gold medal, but because of the major injuries to other teams, the U.S. could sneak in under the radar and do better than expected.
Prediction: Fourth place
Russia
Team Russia is always a crapshoot, since the Russian Ice Hockey Federation is about as loopy as an episode of "The Sopranos." It's hard to deny the overall talent that GM Pavel Bure has assembled. Any forward group that has Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Pavel Datsyuk, and Alexei Kovalev is nothing to sneeze at. Similarly, the Russians should be fine in goal even without Nikolai Khabibulin, as Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya "I'm Playing Jean-Sebastien Giguere Out of a Job" Bryzgalov will share the crease.
The defense is a mix of middle to upper-tier NHL defensemen with both the rugged (Vitali Vishneviski, Danny Markov) and skilled (Sergei Gonchar, Andrei Markov) represented. The big question out of Russia, as always, is whether or not they will be able to gel as a team. There's enough finger pointing and discontent within the national team that veteran Sergei Fedorov opted out of playing. GM Pavel Bure may be coordinating the team, but if scholarly Igor Larionov was in control, chances are the team would do better.
Prediction: Fifth place
Slovakia
The Slovakian team is an all-or-nothing group. They either have it all (great forwards) or nothing (Peter Budaj is their starting goalie). On defense, you've got Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovsky, two outstanding players ... and not a whole lot more — and yes, that's counting Radoslav Suchy. Goaltending steals one-game tournaments, and it's hard to imagine that the combination of Peter Budaj and two non-NHLers will be able to do that. To make matters worse, the Slovakian team is without the recently- retired Ziggy Palffy, a sniper who could make good use of the Olympic ice, and crafty Ladislav Nagy. Don't expect too much out of the Slovaks except for a few nice rushes from Marian Hossa and perhaps a big hit or two by Chara.
Prediction: Sixth place
Finland
When Miikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen took themselves out of Olympic competition, it was a serious blow to the Finn's chances of medaling. The Finnish roster is very thin up front, with Teemu Selanne, Olli Jokinen, and Saku Koivu providing the only real punch. There's a mix of role players and up and comers, but the Finnish forwards don't compare to any other top countries — including the rebuilding United States. The defense is in worse shape, with Kimmo Timonen being the only real star player in his prime on the blue line.
However, the Finns seemed to follow the playing style of the Calgary Flames — hit, hit, hit, and play defense. That style got them to the championship game (in a very ugly fashion) of the World Cup. However, on the large Olympic ice, it will be more difficult to do. More notably, without any real goaltending presence, it will be difficult for the Finns to withstand the onslaught of forward skill from the other teams.
Prediction: Seventh place
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