Super Bowl XL Preview

Five Quick Hits

* The Australian Open is my favorite tennis tournament, and Martina Hingis' comeback only adds to its appeal. Props to ESPN2 for its extensive coverage.

* Analyst Brad Gilbert (also a former player and coach) bears a stunning resemblance to Don Flamenco, of Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! fame.

* Note to everyone: sweet heaven, please stop calling it Super Bowl Extra Large. It's not that clever, and it was only funny the first time.

* I really liked Dana Jacobson on SportsCenter. I can't stand her on Cold Pizza. And I don't even watch Cold Pizza.

* Jake Plummer was wretched against the Steelers, but Cardinals fans have to feel pretty burned right now. Plummer clearly has the talent to lead his team deep into the playoffs, but Bill Bidwill never surrounded him with a team.

***

There are so many coaching moves going on that they have almost overshadowed postseason play at times. Head coaches aren't the only big moves, either. The Al Saunders hiring in Washington is a big deal, Jim Bates is gone in Green Bay, and Miami has grabbed former head coaches Mike Mularkey and Dom Capers to be its coordinators.

Since there are no games next weekend, I'll check in next Tuesday with analysis of the most important hirings of the offseason, updated Super Bowl thoughts, and maybe a breakdown of this year's Hall of Fame class. For now, though, let's get right to the conference championship games.

Championship Game Roundups

Pittsburgh @ Denver

This wasn't just about Ben Roethlisberger and Jake Plummer, but the play of the two quarterbacks certainly summed up each team's performance. Roethlisberger was on fire. He came out passing, threw for two touchdowns, and ran for another to seal the game. He threw for 15 first downs and posted a 124.9 passer rating, the first time all season that Denver allowed an opposing passer to top 100. In short, Roethlisberger came up big in his team's biggest game.

Plummer, on the other hand, played a lot like Big Ben did in last year's championship game against the Patriots. He looked overwhelmed, and his decision-making was spotty. Plummer threw two gimme interceptions and finished with a passer rating of 66.4, his lowest since Week 5.

There was more to this game than the quarterbacks, though. Plummer didn't get much help from his offensive line. He was sacked three times and avoided several others with sheer athleticism. Denver's playcalling was also questionable. Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell carried the ball a combined 14 times, less than half the total of Pittsburgh's lead runners, Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker.

Steeler linebacker Joey Porter was in Plummer's face all afternoon. He was even blitzing on playaction. If the other team's best pass-rusher isn't respecting your run-fakes, you attack him by running the ball. The Broncos never did that. They were down 24-3 at halftime, and that's a big deficit to overcome, but when your offense is getting whipped the way Denver's was, you can't give up on your bread and butter. But that's exactly what the Broncos did, instead putting the ball in the hands of a QB who was having a terrible game. If you can score a couple times, then you can worry about the clock. The pass-heavy strategy was understandable late in the game, but it played into Pittsburgh's blitzes.

The Denver defense wasn't any better. It did a pretty good job against the run, but nothing against Roethlisberger. The Broncos blitzed a ton, but they never seemed to get any pressure. The Steelers always had the perfect call. If the defense brought five, they blocked with five or six. If the defense blitzed with six, they blocked with six or seven. When your blitzes are ineffective, you call off the dogs and put more DBs in coverage. Denver did that, and still couldn't stop the Steelers.

Pittsburgh converted six of its seven first-half third downs. Halfway through the second quarter, the Steelers had third-and-10. The Broncos rushed three men, and dropped everyone else into coverage. Roethlisberger found Hines Ward wide open for a first down. And I mean wide open. It was that kind of day.

Carolina @ Seattle

In blowouts like we saw this weekend, you can't boil the games down to a single factor. But please consider the importance of running the football. I've been harping on it all postseason, and if it seems like I keep repeating it, notice that the running teams keep winning. Pittsburgh and Seattle handed the ball off a combined 75 times on Sunday. Denver and Carolina combined for — get ready — 23. No team ever has or ever will win a championship game with only nine carries, which the Panthers tried against Seattle.

Carolina was already down to its third-string running back, Nick Goings, when the game began. But Goings is a solid runner who's been effective before. When the Panthers really gave up on the run was at the end of the first quarter, when Goings launched himself head first at Lofa Tatupu and suffered a concussion. His replacement, Jamal Robertson, got four carries in the remaining three quarters. No other Panther, except QB Jake Delhomme, had a rushing attempt.

It's especially important to run the ball when your quarterback isn't playing well. Delhomme was streaky all season, and he had his worst game yet against Seattle, going 0-for-6 with two interceptions in the first quarter, and finishing with a passer rating of 34.9. On Delhomme's first interception, he tried to hit Steve Smith between five Seahawk defenders. Seattle took away Smith, Goings KO-ed himself, and Delhomme took care of the rest.

The Seahawk offense put up 34 points against a Carolina defense that ranked third in yards allowed and hadn't allowed 30 points all season. They did it, like the Steelers, by using the pass to set up the run. Through a combination of turnovers, solid running game, and excellence from QB Matt Hasselbeck, the 'Hawks controlled time of possession for 41:51, more than twice as long as Carolina. Underestimate this offense at your own risk.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XL: Seahawks vs. Steelers
Detroit, Michigan

Right now, this Super Bowl doesn't have the same pedigree as last year's matchup. The Seahawks are the best team from a weak NFC, but the Steelers went 11-5, finished second in their own division, and reached the big game by getting hot at the right time, not by dominating throughout the year. We won't be talking about either of these teams as the greatest of all-time.

That's not to say that they aren't great teams, or that XL won't be a good game. Neither side has a glaring weakness. Both have elite quarterbacks and strong running games anchored by stellar offensive line play. Each has a good defense with an effective pass rush and a playmaking linebacker. Both head coaches have been to the Super Bowl, and both teams are on a roll.

Aside from their meaningless Week 17 matchup against Green Bay, the Seahawks have won 13 games in a row and averaged over 30 points per game since the bye, scoring at least three touchdowns against everyone but Washington. Hasselbeck hasn't had a passer rating below 96 since Thanksgiving.

Pittsburgh has won seven in a row, including road wins over the top three seeds in the AFC playoffs. Other than last week's dramatic finish in Indianapolis, they've won all seven games by double-digits. Roethlisberger's passer rating in the playoffs is 124.8. The defense has logged 12 sacks this postseason, against the three least-sacked teams in the NFL. The Bengals, Colts, and Broncos all allowed season-high sacks against Pittsburgh.

On paper, Seattle has the personnel to fight that. The Seahawks' offensive line may be the best in football, and if not, it's certainly close. On paper, though, Indianapolis and Denver don't allow a combined eight sacks, either. Mike Holmgren's first priority has to be protecting his quarterback from Pittsburgh's blitzes. He can do that by running early and often, and throwing screens in obvious passing situations. I don't think Seattle can win if Shaun Alexander doesn't carry the ball 30 times.

On defense, the Seahawks need to rattle Big Ben. The Steelers are unbeatable when he's on his game, and if he doesn't have at least one turnover, Seattle loses. Early pressure is key, but as we saw in Denver, that's easier said than done. The Seahawks also need to watch for gadget plays. I guarantee Pittsburgh will try at least one. Remember the onside kick in Super Bowl XXX, or the Antwaan Randle El-to-Roethlisberger-to-Cedrick Wilson play against Cincinnati? Those are game-breaking plays, and Seattle can't be victimized by them.

For Pittsburgh to win, it needs to play mistake-free on offense. An early turnover or two could seal this game. Roethlisberger has proved he can be a big-game QB, but the Steelers really aren't put together to come from behind, so they can't beat themselves. That could mean limiting Willie Parker's touches, since he seemed to have trouble holding onto the ball against Denver. Ken Whisenhunt seems to have Pittsburgh's offense clicking on all cylinders, and if it plays the way it has been, the Steelers will be fine.

Likewise, the defense needs to keep up the good work. Contain Alexander early, make the Seahawks feel like they need to throw, and bring the house to pressure Hasselbeck. Seattle's offense, and its quarterback in particular, have not gotten enough credit, and I think the Steelers could be surprised at how good a unit they're facing. In the end, though, the key is stopping Alexander. Take him out of the game, and Seattle loses.

The intangibles of this matchup are hard to pin down, but I've become a big believer in "just happy to be here" syndrome, and I think the team less likely to have a problem with it is Pittsburgh. The Steelers went 15-1 last year and couldn't close the deal. This time around, they feel like they need to vindicate themselves. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is favored in this matchup, and that helps ... Seattle. It's become evident in the last year or two — and especially the last week or two — that Bill Cowher's team plays better as the underdog. If either side comes into the game overconfident or underprepared, that team will lose by 20 points. Maybe more.

I think Pittsburgh has turned the corner.

Steelers 24, Seahawks 17.