NFL Playoff Thoughts and Observations

Here is a little secret I can let you all in on: it is hard to get to the Super Bowl! Yep, that's right. Apparently, it's not easy to get to, let alone win, the ultimate game in the National Football League's single elimination tournament.

As exhibit A, I would like to present the Indianapolis Colts. Coming in at 13-3, with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in a inhospitable dome. They had a bevy of weapons:

* Perennial MVP candidate quarterback Peyton Manning.
* Targets like wide-outs Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stockley, plus tight end Dallas Clark.
* Often underrated running back Edgerrin James.

This year, their defense had finally stepped up and played the kind of tough and opportunistic defense that Tony Dungy was known for. Every thing was lined up, right? Heck, Denver even knocked off their arch nemesis the New England Patriots. Have you seen the last few playoff games Denver has played at Indy? Not pretty.

So much like USC in the National Championship Game, many in the media began to describe the Colts victory on Sunday as a lock. "Didn't you see the Monday Night Football game in November?" they asked. This team is too good to choke at home against a team they already beat handily. "Didn't you hear Joey Porter talking trash?" No way the Colts come out flat. Most brought up the fact that the Colts hadn't played a meaningful game in a month only to dismiss it.

Well, we all saw what happened on Sunday. If not for a few bad calls — and one horrendous one — and a fluke fumble, the Steelers would have beaten the Colts by at least two touchdowns. Yet, even with more help than any team had a right to expect the Colts still couldn't manage to pull out the win. The plain fact of the matter is that the Steelers came out swinging and the Colts never really recovered.

Suddenly, the magical season had come to a very ugly end. Peyton Manning had lost another big game and uncharacteristically blamed it on his offensive line in public. Colts fans were so shocked they weren't even sure head coach Tony Dungy would come back.

Ironically, you know who could have offered some consolation? The Pittsburgh Steelers. You see this is the same franchise and coach who lost four out of five AFC Championships at home. Who were the Indianapolis Colts of last year? The Pittsburgh Steelers!

After Tommy Maddox — try saying that name without cringing — went down with an injury, rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger took over and never lost a game in the regular season. The Steelers went 15-1, beat both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots handily, and earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Heck, the Steelers beat the Buffalo Bills — who were trying to qualify for the playoffs — with their backups! This team was on a roll and the road to the Super Bowl went through Steel Town.

Except that their rookie QB was running on fumes and they had a inauspicious record in the postseason:

* In 1994, the 12-4 Steelers lost to the San Diego Chargers 17-13 coming up a yard short of the end zone in the final minutes.

* The next year, the Steelers made it to the Super Bowl only to lose to the dreaded Dallas Cowboys. In the AFC Championship Game, they managed to beat the Indianapolis Colts only after a desperation hail-mary pass fell to the ground after having landed on a Colts receiver's chest.

* In 1997, the 11-5 Steelers were again one play away from going to the Super Bowl, but instead lost to the Denver Broncos, 24-21.

* In 2001, the 13-3, and number one seed, Steelers managed to play horrendously on special teams and fall to the New England Patriots 24-17.

Do you see the pattern here? Steelers get on a roll, clinch home-field advantage, and manage to lose an excruciatingly painful AFC Championships Game. Last year, they looked unbeatable heading into the playoffs and they eked out a win against the New York Jets only to get steamrolled by the New England Patriots in the Conference Championship Game. This year, they figured they would try it the hard way. So far it is working.

Why the history lesson? Because fans are almost always too hard on good teams that lose these type of games. You think I have a Pittsburgh bias? We don't even have to leave the state of Pennsylvania to find more examples. Switch to the NFC and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Tony Dungy mentioned this in his press conference. The Eagles lost three NFC Conference Championship games in a row at home before getting to the Super Bowl, only to lose to those perennial dream killers, the Patriots. The San Francisco 49ers lost two NFC Championships Games in a row to the Dallas Cowboys before getting back to the Super Bowl in 1994. Winning these games is hard.

Let's face it, professional football is a cruel and unusual mistress. Winning and losing can be a matter of inches. That odd-shaped ball bounces in weird ways and it is hard to keep a handle on. Ask Mike Vanderjagt. Ask Jerome Bettis. Ask Troy Brown. Ask Champ Bailey. Ask Edell Shepherd.

The games aren't decided on talent alone, nor are they always fair. Ask Carson Palmer. Ask DeShaun Foster. Ask Tiki Barber. Ask Asante Samuel. Ask Troy Polamalu. Ask Julius Peppers. Sometimes it is the weather, sometimes it is a fluke play or injury, sometimes it is a bad call, sometimes it is a lack of concentration, sometimes the other team just plays better on that particular day. Let me repeat: getting to the Super Bowl is hard.

Having said all of that, allow me to offer some scatter shot thoughts and observations:

* The Denver Broncos are a good team. You don't get to 13-3 in their division without being good. But they felt more lucky than good in beating the Patriots. Two huge calls changed the nature of that game — along with the Pats five turnovers. The by now infamous pass interference call gave the Broncos the ball on the one-yard line which they turned into a touchdown. When Ben Watson, in one of the more remarkable feats of hustle I have ever seen, chased down Champ Bailey, I really thought that ball went through the end zone and out of bounds. I realize that was a tough call, but had I been the ref I would have called it a touchback. That play also gave the Broncos first and goal and led to seven points. I don't know if it was the altitude or what, but the breaks went Denver's way in that game. I am not sure I would count on that twice.

* Watching the Redskins' offense was painful. I literally didn't want to watch that game it was so bad. The Seahawks gave the Redskins every opportunity to win that game and the offense was incapable of doing anything with it. I can't believe some people picked them to beat the Seahawks!

* Nobody has explained to me why the Colts gave up on the running game. I realize the Steelers have a good run defense, but down 14-0 in the first quarter, the Colts acted like they were down three scores with two minutes to go. Coach Dungy, are you familiar with a little something called the screen play? Misdirection? On third-and-two, it might be worth considering a running play. I mean the Colts just insisted on drooping back to pass even though the biggest problem was pass protection. It was odd.

* It is also beyond me why people picked the Bears to win on Sunday. Do you honestly think you can just throw a quarterback into the lineup and win playoff games? I am surprised the game was as close as it was. The Bears' defense was overrated the whole season anyway. They played Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota twice each, not too mention the Browns, Saints, and 49ers! Any decent defense should have good numbers against those teams. When they played the Steelers in December, I think it was clear they were in trouble. Pittsburgh beat them 21-9 and they shut down the offense in the fourth quarter.

* Still, the inability to cover Steve Smith was ridiculous. I realize on a number of occasions the defender slipped, but still that is no excuse not to have safety help on the Panthers' only real offensive weapon. Lovie Smith was Coach of the Year, right?

Winners

* Bill Cowher — Even though everyone expected the Colts to win, another playoff loss — especially a blowout — would have hurt. Instead, he rolls out a great game plan and pulls off a huge upset. He proved he can rise to the expectations of the big game.

* The Steelers offensive line — They gave Roethlisberger time to throw and he made Indy pay. They are the key to the Steelers' offense. When they play well, they win. They certainly redeemed themselves after their bad game on MNF.

* Matt Hasselback — When his star running back, and league MVP, went down Hasselback stepped up and led his team. With Alexander out and the turnovers it could have turned ugly. Of course, the Redskins' offense helped out, but still he made plays when he needed to. If he does it against Carolina, then we will know that he has truly kicked it up a notch.

* Steve Smith — I don't care what the coverage is, this guy is tearing up teams every which way. Teams have to know he is the "go to guy" and yet they can't seem to stop him. He simply finds the end zone.

Losers

* Peyton Manning — It might not be fair, but he will have a monkey on his back until he can prove he can take a game over and win it when the chips are down.

* The New England Patriots — The media love affair with this team has finally come to an end. Thank goodness.

* The officiating — I can't remember a weekend of games so marred by bad calls and missed calls. These were not marginal calls either, many of them were horrendous and could have changed the outcome of the game. If it takes full-time officials to get better calls, then I am all for it at this point. This kind of officiating can't continue.

I am excited about the upcoming games. All four teams play good defense and are evenly matched (at least on paper). These are the type of games that make me wonder how people bet on the NFL.

This weekend, let's hope for some exciting action on the field and an absence of controversy for the men in stripes.