NFL Wildcard Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* Marcus Vick's recent arrest doesn't affect my view of how NFL teams should look at him, because I already thought he was poison. I wouldn't draft him in any round or sign him to any contract. The guy makes Lawrence Phillips look like a sure thing.

* Terrific shot of Vince Young with confetti showering over him after the Rose Bowl. Young looked like, well, like a pro playing with college kids.

* The AP's all-pro team isn't too bad this year, but I don't understand why everyone loves Brian Moorman. Punter is one of the few positions at which the stats tell the story, and what they say about Moorman is that all his punts get returned.

* Steve Young hates Michael Irvin. You can tell.

* Brad Childress coached a talented, mobile quarterback in Philadelphia. Now he'll coach Daunte Culpepper in Minnesota. The Vikings could be a team to watch next season.

***

You had to really like defense to enjoy Saturday's games, but both were genuinely well-played defensive battles, and only Washington's offense really stunk things up. The first matchup of this postseason featured two very similar teams. Both offenses rely on a dynamic young running back and a fast, big-play receiver, without much action from the rest of the receiving corps. Each frequently uses two tight ends, with a lot of max protection. Both defenses are top-10, keyed by a pair of great outside linebackers, Derrick Brooks and Marcus Washington. There's a defensive mastermind on both sidelines.

In close games, better special teams are often the difference, and one of the most surprising things about Washington's victory was that Tampa Bay won the special teams battle. John Hall's kickoffs consistently came up short, and the Bucs started most of their first-half possessions near the 40-yard line. Derrick Frost, although he did a nice job of running down Mark Jones, may be the worst punter in the NFL. And Antonio Brown muffed a punt, which could have been the difference in the game if the Bucs had recovered.

While both defenses were exceptional — you couldn't ask for a better defensive game — both offenses made mistakes. Tampa's, I thought, was not going after the Washington secondary. I realize Chris Simms threw 38 passes, but with Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers out, Gregg Williams was missing his top two cornerbacks. Number three cornerback Walt Harris also missed a few plays after he got shaken up, and free safety Sean Taylor missed most of the second half after getting ejected. The Bucs were a fingertip away from breaking the game open on Edell Shepherd's dropped touchdown catch, and more shots like that probably would have produced some points.

Having said that, though, Joe Theismann needs to get off of Joey Galloway's jock. How many times during Saturday's broadcast did he use Galloway's name? I stopped counting after 500.

Wildcard Roundups

Washington @ Tampa Bay

This was the hardest game of the weekend to predict. Last week, I picked the Buccaneers, but by Friday, I was convinced Washington would win it. With Tampa on a slide, and Joe Gibbs' playoff history, maybe I hadn't given Washington enough credit. I had also sort of forgotten Mark Brunell's extensive playoff experience, and Tampa's trouble with Clinton Portis, who had rushed for over 140 yards in both of his game against the Bucs. As it turns out, Portis had a blah game, Brunell was awful, and Gibbs never tried to put the game away, but at least I was kind of right about Tampa being on a slide.

In a strange way, this may be one of the most memorable wildcard games in NFL history. The most lasting legacy, unfortunately, is liable to be Sean Taylor spitting in Michael Pittman's face. Hopefully, we'll also remember the battle between two great defenses. The deciding factor, ultimately, was that while the Bucs could stop Washington's punchless offense, it couldn't create turnovers. In contrast, the Washington defense contained Tampa's running game and came up with big plays that led to scores.

Gibbs and Gregg Williams came into the game with a clear plan in mind, and dictated to Jon Gruden's offense all afternoon. They stuffed Cadillac Williams, took away the deep ball, and dared Chris Simms to beat them underneath. It was a brilliant strategy for dealing with a young quarterback. All those short throws by Simms meant Washington's defense was on the field a lot, but each snap was an opportunity for Washington to make a big play. The defense was a turnover machine at the end of the season, and with Simms dropping back 41 times, it came up with three sacks and two interceptions.

Simms is getting a lot of credit for his play in the game, and he certainly played better than his 56.7 passer rating would imply, but he's not going to make anyone forget his dad just yet. I still think Brian Griese is better — although Griese's not going to make anyone forget his dad, either.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay's defense played a tremendous game, and it should have been enough to win. Washington's offense was terrible, as well, and that combination is how it wound up with a miserable total of 120 yards and a staggering 2.4 yards per play. Certainly, injuries played a role. Brunell was hurting beforehand, Portis got banged up during the game, Chris Samuels got hurt and had to miss the last series, James Thrash broke him thumb, and Ray Brown stayed 43. But the Bucs played great defense, and Washington stunk.

Ronde Barber had a pretty quiet game, but so did Santana Moss. Simeon Rice tore apart Samuels, posting a sack and a season-high six tackles. Samuels got three all-pro votes this season, which is a joke. He's a little above average, but nowhere near elite. That said, not all of Rice's impact was Samuels' fault. Washington left him unblocked on draws, and at least twice Rice crashed the play for a loss. I can only assume that Gibbs and his staff thought Rice would overrun the draw. If so, it was one of many mistakes Washington made on offense. Gibbs bottled things up in the second half, and he probably would have passed even less if Portis had been healthy.

Jacksonville @ New England

Let's get this out of the way: the difference between Byron Leftwich and David Garrard is not 25 points. I probably would have started Garrard against New England — I've always believed that you don't bench the hot hand — and I'm not convinced that Leftwich is the better player, but I don't think Jacksonville would have won with Joe Montana at quarterback. The Jaguars looked like a team that knew it was beat, and I suspect Jack Del Río's decision to start Leftwich was more about next season than this one.

The most striking aspect of the game was Jacksonville's inefficiency on offense. It didn't rival Washington's, but it wasn't pretty. The Jags went 1-for-12 on third downs and had only one rushing first down the entire game. Fred Taylor had eight carries. Leftwich, who is not known for his mobility, led the team in rushing. He and Garrard were sacked a combined six times. And yes, Jimmy Smith dropped a pass. Life goes on. (Unless you're talking about Jacksonville's playoff life. That's over.)

Tom Brady and Kevin Faulk were the offensive stars for New England, but the most amazing stat was the Patriots' fumbles. New England had four fumbles, and none was recovered by the Jaguars. The game also provided a remarkable example of Brady's slowness, when he was outrun by Marcus Stroud, who is listed at 312 pounds. I feel bad for Mike Peterson, Del Río's middle linebacker, who had a great regular season, but showed up on the highlight reels this weekend after failing to make a tackle on Ben Watson. Peterson injured his wrist in Week 17 and the cast he wore on Saturday diminished his ability to get a grip on Watson.

Injured quarterbacks and linebackers aside, though, I don't think the Jaguars ever had a chance in this game.

Carolina @ New York

It was ill-advised for Tiki Barber to publicly say that he thought the Giants were out-coached, and I was surprised to hear it from him, but I'm in complete agreement. In fact, I'm baffled at how poorly Tom Coughlin and his staff adjusted during the game, to say nothing of their clearly inadequate gameplanning beforehand.

Let's start with New York's defense. The Panthers came out running, attacking the Giants' injury-depleted linebacking corps and keeping pressure off of Jake Delhomme. Coughlin and his defensive coordinator, Tim Lewis, never adjusted. All game, the runs were there. DeShaun Foster and Nick Goings combined for 214 rushing yards and a 5.5 average. At some point, you have to brings guys to the line to stop the run, especially in the second half, when the Giants were down three scores and watching Carolina bleed the clock.

We all know Steve Smith is a force, but Delhomme has been inconsistent all season, and he did not look good on Sunday. Certainly not as good as Foster. The Giants should have played to stop Foster and Goings, and challenged Delhomme to keep the offense going. It's likely that the Panthers would have won anyway, but that's a common-sense adjustment if there ever was one. Some credit is due, too, to John Fox and his staff, who responded to the Giants' injuries with a run-heavy gameplan.

On offense, Coughlin never found a way to get his best player involved. The Giants rode Barber to the playoffs, but against Carolina he only got 13 carries and three catches. That's like being the old Chicago Bulls and saying, “Well, they're double-teaming Jordan. Let's see if Toni Kukoc can win it for us.” On a related note, let's not even pretend any more that there's discussion as to who got the better end of the Eli Manning trade. San Diego got one of the league's better kickers, a veteran tackle, the 2005 Defensive Rookie of the Year, and a young quarterback who could still turn out to be better than Little Manning.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

What's an AFC playoff game without quarterback intrigue? Carson Palmer's first-quarter injury set the tone for the game, but the Bengals didn't give up, and Jon Kitna had a decent game in relief. While things certainly would have been different with Palmer at the controls, I don't think Cincinnati would have won even if he hadn't gone down. Just a guess, and loyal readers know I don't think Palmer is the second coming of Johnny Unitas, but the Steelers just looked more ready on Sunday.

I'm not trying to accuse the Bengals of poor preparation, because there was no indication of that, but the Steelers looked like they were just taking care of business, winning a game they were supposed to win and doing it their way. Pittsburgh converted more than half of its third downs, sacked Kitna four times, and had 50% more runs than passes.

The focus has been on Cincinnati's offense without Palmer, which didn't score in the second half, but don't forget a defense that couldn't stop the Steelers. Pittsburgh had 144 rushing yards and had no turnovers, while Ben Roethlisberger averaged 9.2 yards per pass and was sacked only once.

The Crystal Ball

Washington @ Seattle

If Washington were playing Chicago, I might worry about picking the Bears. In Seattle, though, I think the Seahawks cruise. I don't want to underestimate Gibbs and Williams, and Washington does have reason for optimism. Against Tampa, the team played one of the worst offensive games imaginable and still won. It's almost inconceivable that they'll replicate that miserable performance against Seattle's 17th-ranked defense, and Washington was able to (more or less) contain Shaun Alexander when the teams met in Week 4.

The other side of this is that Seattle was 8-0 at home this season, while Washington is 5-4 on the road, including a 2-4 mark against teams that finished with winning records. Even more importantly, the visitors are far from healthy. Brunell, Portis, Samuels, and Thrash will be playing through injuries. Right guard Randy Thomas is on injured reserve, and Renaldo Wynn, who broke his leg against the Bucs, has joined him. Every cornerback on the team is playing hurt.

And Seattle matches up well against Washington. The 'Hawks allowed just 3.6 yards per rush this season, and only five rushing TDs, by far the best mark in the NFC. That means the game will be in the hands of Brunell, who hasn't looked right since he was injured against the Giants.

If the matchup were close, I might give this game to Washington on intangibles like coaching and momentum. Washington will play better offensively, and the Seahawks won't hang 40 points on that defense, but I'll take Seattle by 10.

New England @ Denver

I honestly don't know what I would do if the Patriots were playing at Indianapolis. Probably flip a coin. But I like Denver in this one. I think Mike Shanahan can hold his own against Bill Belichick, and I like Denver's 8-0 home record. New England is 5-3 on the road, and Brady's passer rating is 20 points lower than at home. The Broncos beat New England earlier this season, which actually puts the onus on Denver, since the Patriots are sure to make adjustments, and Shanahan has to guess what those will be.

Shutting down the run will be key for the Patriots, and they did an admirable job against Jacksonville, but what really hurt the Patriots when these teams met in Week 6 were Jake Plummer and Denver's defense. The Broncos finished the season tied for third in scoring defense, and in the Week 6 matchup, Brady completed only half his passes. New England is a much better team now than they were then, but with Corey Dillon and Tedy Bruschi in questionable health, Troy Brown back at DB, and the Broncos with an extra week of rest, Denver still has the edge.

The game could easily turn on special teams. If it were in Foxborough, I wouldn't hesitate to bet on the Pats. In Denver, though, the Broncos will be tough to beat. They'll need a good game from Plummer, and they probably have to force at least one turnover. I'm not totally confident in the pick, so I'll say Denver by four.

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Bill Cowher got his first postseason road win this past weekend. He's not going to get the second one on Sunday. The Steelers are a very good team, playing with a lot of confidence, and they're 7-2 on the road this season. They play a 3-4 defense, which gives Indianapolis fits, and they've got a big, physical, offensive front to attack Indy's undersized defense.

How much is that going to mean, though, against a team that was the NFL's best this season? These teams met six weeks ago, and the Colts ran away with a 26-7 victory. And while Roethlisberger wasn't totally healthy in that game, it's unlikely that the Colts will have 106 yards in penalties this time around. Pittsburgh's defensive backs were trounced by the Colts' receiving corps, and Edgerrin James had 124 rushing yards.

What the previous meeting came down to was that the Colts were more physical, especially on the offensive line. James had holes to run through. Peyton Manning had time to throw. If the Steelers are going to be competitive, they need to put pressure on Manning. Cowher and his defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, should spend all week studying tape of the San Diego Chargers, and use Joey Porter the same way Marty Schottenheimer and Wade Phillips used Shawne Merriman.

Manning generally beats blitzes, but when teams beat him, it's usually with a strong pass rush that gets him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Steelers will need big plays from their defense to win, and they can't get into a shootout. If I were Pittsburgh's offensive braintrust, I'd go after the guys returning from injury who haven't played in a month, and I'd try to throw in Jason David's direction. The key will be establishing Willie Parker.

On paper, Pittsburgh has a good shot. In reality, the Colts win by two touchdowns.

Carolina @ Chicago

The first time these teams met — that's right, all four divisional games are rematches — Chicago sacked Delhomme eight times. That's unlikely to happen again, but there's a better chance of Delhomme going down eight times than there is of Foster running for 150 against Chicago's defense. Make no mistake, the Bears are not going to let Foster and Goings beat them. If Delhomme has a great game, the Panthers will win. That's a chance Chicago is willing to take.

The wildcard here is Rex Grossman. If he plays well, the Bears could run away with this in a big way. If he plays like Kyle Orton, the game should be close. And if he makes a bunch of mistakes, he can room with Steve Bartman. Grossman's an unknown quantity, and Lovie Smith should try to limit his role in this game, putting the burden on the running game and the defense. Carolina, naturally, will try to take away the run and force Grossman to throw. The way he responds should determine Chicago's success on offense.

There are too many ifs for Carolina, and the team's inconsistency will be plain to see against a solid team like Chicago. Bears by 10.