Week 17 of the NFL season is finally upon us and, while serving as the starting gun for 12 of the more fortunate franchises in their runs at playoff glory, the better part of the league (well, technically that would be the worst part of the league, but putting that in print would just be adding insult to injury) looks at the season's final weekend as a prelude to an off-season period that, in most cases, ends in significant changes as teams try to reload and rebuild for future success.
New Year's day is also upon us and in the spirit of this dawning of a New Year, the missive you are currently reading will not delve into the already over-booked affairs of playoff preparation and prognostication, but will rather discuss the rebirth of seven pro football franchises that will spend their offseasons wondering what went wrong, who's to blame, and just how each wants to go about fixing the blemishes that stare team ownership in the face as they introspect their respective charges.
Now calling out coaching staffs and/or pending front office shake-ups may be fun, but there is no challenge in that, so I'll address those changes briefly: Texans are a mess, Packers will make some big changes, Rams will be looking for a new staff, no more Norv Turner in Oakland, and Herm Edwards should be the next Kansas City Chief coach.
There you have it. Any front office moves beyond those highlighted above are less than sure bets and frankly aren't nearly as reliable as article fodder since either nobody really cares, or those who do care will be too disgusted with their team being mentioned to continue reading. Both options net the same result: fewer readers. Not exactly an eventuality that most of us self-respecting sports writers are comfortable with.
Rather than boring or annoying you with further digressions (again, the goal is to keep you interested here), let's get to the meat of this story: where do the non-playoff combatants go from here? For your consumption, below is a summary for each of the seven teams that are already booking January vacation packages and have been since mid-October. Each team will be listed and a parenthetical description meant to signify the state of every organization is included, or at least the latin-esque equivalent of a meaningful description. (Yeah, big Road Runner vs. Wile E. Coyote fan ... can you seriously blame me? Good stuff.)
As mentioned before, coaching changes, front office movements, and possible changes in home city affiliations (we're looking at you, Tom Benson) will not be addressed so if that is what your football appetite is craving, check out another locale. Otherwise, read on and bon appetite!
Houston Texans (Apocalypticus Franchisus)
State of the Franchise: Either my home town team made a rather unfortunate deal with Lucifer himself or this group is en route to a major offseason overhaul. No position player will be safe, aside from CB Dunta Robinson (who had a disappointing sophomore campaign himself), LB Kailee Wong (injury mulligan), and maybe QB David Carr (who, coincidentally, has seen more grass this season than Snoop Dogg). If form holds, and it will, Houston will be picking first in the 2006 draft and had better pick the superlative USC tailback Reggie Bush, unless they want to play in front of a stadium full of empty seats for the foreseeable future. It's hard to imagine a team needing to start building from the ground up after just four years of existence, but Houston is in that enviable position and really will be a completely new-look team come next fall.
Hit the Road: DBs Phillip Buchanon and Marcus Robinson are both going to be wearing different uniforms next season and their defensive front seven should be shaken up quite noticeably, as well. RB Domanick Davis is very likely to be a very large bit of trade bait if Bush turns pro and should net the Texans a nice package of players or draft picks.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Look for a potential big-money signing like DE John Abraham or CB Nate Clements on defense and a bevy of trades as the team looks to add some youth through the draft to a very bad team. While it is hard to pinpoint just who the Texans will chase this far removed from the free agent season, it is a certainty that the front office will make every effort to make some noise as they try to become a viable franchise moving forward.
Final Prognosis: Not good. Even with some good talent available on the market this spring, they have far too many holes to plug along their offensive line, defensive line, and in their receiver and defensive back corps. If the front office operates as it should, 2006 will be a long year, but a step in the right direction. If the organization attempts to fill their voids by signing veterans, all bets are off for the future and the dismal '05 campaign will be a harbinger for things to come.
New Orleans Saints (Franchisus in Fluxium)
State of the Franchise: Your guess is as good as mine. Texas? Louisiana? Nevada? California? Okay, okay I don't necessarily mean that particular usage of "state," but you get the drift. The Saints are a wreck — their best players were set back by horrific injury and those who remained were inexplicable in their underperformance in what has become a wickedly unfair season of turmoil. Still, there is no excuse for the on-field results and heads must roll.
Hit the Road: Say goodbye to QB Aaron Brooks. He has made his last woeful decision in a Saints uniform, at least as their starting QB, and the burden of blame will certainly be at least partially on him once the smoke clears. WR Joe Horn is aging gracefully, but may be set for a change of scenery, as well, though his price in terms of both trade value and contractual obligations may handcuff the Saints if they attempt to deal him away.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Unfortunately for the Saints, it is going to be next to impossible to woo free agents into whichever city they call home under the current circumstances without overpaying precipitously. The team really needs to snag a stud early in free agency to bring some of the lesser-known players into town, but that scenario is quite unlikely. Perhaps a QB looking for a fresh start and a starting gig will deign to don the gold and black, but aside from the Jay Feidlers and Gus Frerottes of the world, no difference-maker will bring such uncertainty into their professional life intentionally. The draft could net the Saints their future QB (read: Matt Leinart or Vince Young), but beyond that, this team is needing to have their situation settled in a bad way.
Final Prognosis: My heart goes out to the New Orleans franchise and fans, but it is a very bad scene in southern Louisiana right now and the future is just as bleak. A move to a new city is almost a necessity now and with that will come more than one absurdly unbearable season, which makes the future dark indeed for this moribund team.
Green Bay Packers (Buildius Teamus Now)
State of the Franchise: Old. That describes things in Green Bay much more adequately than any metaphor or analogy would. In my pre-season prediction article I begged and pleaded with the reading public to open their eyes and see a disaster-in-the-making (a little self-preserving tooting of my own horn there ... let's not mention my anointing the Falcons as the next world champions). QB Brett Favre is no longer the player he once was. RB Ahman Green was diminished in skill and effectiveness prior to his season-ending injury. Their defense is woeful. Things have to be rebuilt in a hurry in Green Bay or else it will be a return to the Don Majkowski days of frustration and futility for Packer Nation.
Hit the Road: Brett, we love you, you are an all-time great, but you must retire. You still are an adequate starter, but don't go out like this. I beg you. Green is a free agent to be and likely won't be re-signed. WR Javon Walker didn't make any friends with his prolonged preseason holdout and unfortunate season-ending injury. The defense must be re-tooled. We're talking major turnover here.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Yet another team that won't be well-served in signing expensive veterans to ride on a sinking ship. The QB of the future (maybe) is already on the roster in Aaron Rodgers. Offensive lineman help would be a huge plus, but the best guy on the market, OG Steve Hutchinson, will cost an arm and a leg. Youth should be served and the Packers should look to bring LB A.J. Hawk into the fray if the draft plays out as it is at this point.
Future Prognosis: If changes aren't made, the Packers are in for a world of hurt. Samkon Gado is not their running back of the future and their offensive line has more holes in it than the Titanic. Brett Favre's decision on his own future is the ultimate divining rod relative to the short and long-term direction of this legendary franchise, and if the wrong decision is made, even short-term success will be quickly tempered with the reality of long-term turmoil.
New York Jets (What in the Worldius Happened)
State of the Franchise: Would you be able to do your job if you had no hands, one leg, and a big hole in your chest? Well, such is the lot of the New York Jets, who have been hit so hard by the injury bug that they can find no exterminator willing to even try to correct the problem. As a team that yearned for a shot at knocking off the Patriots for divisional supremacy heading into the '05 campaign, the Jets fell far short of their goals and learned a lot about the importance of quality depth. RB Curtis Martin is a year older next season, QB Chad Pennington has yet to prove that he can remain healthy and successfully operate Mike Heimerdinger's deep-passing offense, and their defense is far from elite, making next season's success very much full of "what ifs."
Hit the Road: DE John Abraham should not be back as a Jet as he has alienated a frustrated front office. Pennington's future is in doubt, as well, but this depends on the strategy employed by the front office as they regroup and assess what they think they have in him as a viable franchise quarterback.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Don't be surprised if the Jets make a serious run at RB Jamal Lewis, though the Ravens are unlikely to let him walk away without making any potential suitor pay up. Of all the have-not teams this low in the standings, the Jets stand to gain the most by playing the free agent market, as they do have a solid veteran core and some wiggle-room under the anticipated salary cap. One name to watch closely for the Jets is OG Steve Hutchinson, who is unlikely to be an affordable option for the Seattle Seahawks. In the draft, if USC QB Matt Leinart is on the board wherever the Jets wind up picking, he's a no-brainer.
Final Prognosis: It is hard to get a read on just where the Jets will be in 2006. Age is beginning to creep up on some of the franchise's most heralded veterans and only time will tell if these vets are still capable of being every-down contributors. Smart money says that this wreck of a season is a blip on the radar screen, but the potential loss of coach Herm Edwards may lead to a collapse of epic proportions. My heart (which is anchored by a significant hatred for my beloved Dolphins' most hated rivals) says that the Jets have a long road to hoe in their return to playoff contention, but my mind tells me that they aren't too far off and this dismal season will soon be a distant memory.
San Francisco 49ers (Romus Wasn't Builtium in a Diem)
State of the Franchise: The good news is the team didn't take a step back in 2005. The bad news is they didn't make any particular progress, either. Growth in San Francisco has been delayed due to handcuffs with the cap and a complete turnover in the front office, but it is clear that the team has a plan now and must proceed with implementing that plan and accept the harsh reality that their current struggles are necessary to the long-term success of this once proud franchise.
Hit the Road: Aside from RB Kevan Barlow, who has pretty much played himself out of his last best chance to succeed as a premier back in the league, there shouldn't be too much personnel turnaround in the Bay Area this winter. LB Julian Peterson is one free agent of note, but the coaching staff knows what they have in Peterson and likely will franchise him for another season if a longer-term deal isn't found to be amicable to both sides at the negotiating table.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: All the variables with this team (new coaching staff, young talent base, solid fan base) indicate that no really significant veterans will be courted. Most in the organization realize that the team is a year or two away from really being in a position to make a move, so it would be a shock if big money was doled out anytime soon. That said, WR Reggie Wayne would make a great deal of sense for San Francisco as he is young and would give them the offensive weapon they lust after in the passing game to team with their young franchise QB-in training. The Niners would be giddy if RB Reggie Bush fell in their lap (wouldn't anyone be?), but will likely look at either a top-notch defensive player like LB A.J. Hawk or a stud offensive lineman like D'Brickashaw Ferguson in the draft.
Final Prognosis: As the timeless classic movie "What About Bob?" implies, baby steps are sometimes the most effective means of making real progress. The 49ers would be wise to adhere to that mantra and are looking like a team that is on the right track but still a year or so away from being competitive. Fan patience may be at a minimum in San Fran, but it is, as they say, a virtue and will most certainly be rewarded by an eventual return to prominence.
Oakland Raiders (Bad-assius Façade, Wussium Resultae)
State of the Franchise: The silver and black emblem has long been a harbinger of fear and loathing for opponents. No longer is this the case. Al Davis' penchant for explosive offense has created a combustible combination of mindless mistakes, exploitable defense, and locker-room infighting that earmarks any failed team at any level in any sport. Penalties have long been a part of the equation in Oakland, but those were intimidation penalties in the past with nasty late hits or vicious face-masking infractions. Nowadays, it is ridiculous off-sides penalties on behemoth offensive linemen or wussy illegal contact fouls in an overmatched defensive backfield that undo the Raiders. A simple coaching change will not fix the problem (though it will be the first step) and Davis really needs to rethink his strategy as football pride dies on the sharpened shoulder pads of Raider Nation's undying fanaticism.
Hit the Road: QB Kerry Collins ... buh-bye. CB Charles Woodson ... it's been fun. DT Warren Sapp ... take your tool belt and get out. It will be a fire sale worthy of any great furniture barn's holiday clearance — everything must go and prices will be slashed.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Has anyone seen a capable tackler? Or maybe an o-lineman that has something other than lead in his motor? Perhaps a defensive lineman that can handle a blocker is out there somewhere? QB Drew Brees may make a move up the coast, but one thing is certain, the Raiders of today will look nothing at all like the team that lines up to play come next September.
Future Prognosis: "Just win, baby" is not something that you'll hear anytime soon in Oaktown. The base is very nice with an explosive crop of receivers and a young and talented LaMont Jordan handling the running duties. But the defense is as bad as it gets and has done little more than age over the past two campaigns. If a real motivator is brought in to coach this squad of underachievers, things may turnaround sooner rather than later, but don't count on that with Mr. Davis running his ship his way. For the foreseeable future, the Raiders are little more than a group of nice fantasy football draft picks wallowing at or near the bottom of the league standings.
Tennessee Titans (Confusium Incorporatus)
State of the Franchise: A mystery wrapped inside of a paradox as the answer to a riddle. The Titans have some great talent and a solid, proven offensive scheme. They have some overachievers on defense, a strong stable of running backs, a tough and savvy quarterback, and some stability along their offensive line. They are no better than a three-win team on paper, but their intangibles make them a six- or seven-win squad. They land somewhere in the middle in results, though, which confounds any who try to explain the current status of the team. I'm going to say it — print this out, because I don't say it often — I am dumbfounded by the Titans. I have no idea where they stand and where their future will take them. Acceptance is the first step to recovery.
Hit the Road: Could be everyone, could be no one, will likely fall somewhere in the middle. RBs Chris Brown and Travis Henry are probably staying put. QB Steve McNair is likely going to retire — but, of course, we've heard that song before. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch may jump ship as a free agent, but his standout performance this season may land him a longer-term deal if he chooses to stays put. Like I said, confusion reigns supreme here.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: This all depends on who leaves. One thing is for sure, they need a shut-down type of cornerback. For that reason, I say Charles Woodson would be a good fit, but he may be overpaid to move to New Orleans/San Antonio/L.A./Las Vegas. Sorry, but I've got few answers here, either.
Future Prognosis: In the spirit of the rest of this entry, I have no idea what the future holds for Tennessee. They could be a Super Bowl team next season. They may only win two games. They are well-coached, fairly well-managed, and aren't afraid to part with overpriced players when that time comes (Javon Kearse, Justin McCarreins, Samari Rolle, etc.). They seemingly have good scouts who can pick talent out of a crowd, but their cap-management is a relatively weak point and may cost them the ability to overspend for a difference maker on the open market. Lots of "could," "fairly." and "relatively" in this entry, and, frankly, I could have a fairly relative idea of what this franchise is doing, but I just can't put it into words. Sorry, but I'm at a loss here.
***
Beyond these seven teams, you cannot really attribute particular success or failure to enormous needs or monumental misjudgments in talent. The other 13 non-playoff teams all are either underachievers, up-and-comers, or playing exactly at their potential. For that reason and that reason alone, I have left them out of this article. Yes, the Rams, Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, and Falcons all have some work to do to fix the problems that caused them to disintegrate this season. It is true that the Browns, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Vikings, and Cowboys still have some big moves to make if they want to continue their assent to the league's elite.
But each of those teams can pin their results on substantive realities that can be easily identified. The seven teams highlighted above are miserable failures in every sense of the word and really have to take long, hard looks at themselves to see if their current models are based on sound business decisions made by competent individuals who know right from wrong.
For my money, these are the seven teams that bear the most scrutiny once the lights are shut down for the final time in Detroit, Michigan after the Super Bowl XL post-party is finished.
If not, they'll find themselves on this same list next season. Perish the thought.
December 30, 2005
Anthony Brancato:
You could have added an eighth team to the article - that of course being the Eagles, who must find some way to plug up the hole at wide receiver they themselves so foolishly opened by discarding T.O.; and with very limited pickings in both free agency and the 200 draft, it isn’t likely to happen even if they admit they have a problem in this area - and I wouldn’t assume that.
But that’s far from the only matter that requires urgent attention in Philly: Barring a miracle in their last game, their pass rush will finish with its lowest single-season sack total since 1976, they also desperately need a huge defensive tackle to stuff the run (a bigger issue than ever now that the lack of a go-to receiver means you don’t have to score a lot of points to beat the Eagles and you can thus afford the luxury of running the ball a lot against them) as well as a big back for short-yardage and goal-line plays, and also to be the feature back whenever the Eagles face a team that uses the 3-4 defense, which is making a big-time comeback in the NFL (Brian Westbrook being a proven failure against that alignment and Ryan Moats virtually certain to be the same).
But again, as in the case of the wide receiver position, the big question is whether Joe Banner and Andy Reid are willing to admit that these deficiencies even exist - and their dismal past record of filling immediate needs does not bode well for the future, which could see the Eagles installed as the favorites to land the number-one pick in the 2007 draft.
December 30, 2005
Matt Thomas:
I did consider eschewing the rebuilding 49ers in favor of those disappointing Eagles you describe, but I still feel that Philly isn’t as far from disaster as you opine. I totally agree with you on two points…they desperately need either a huge D-tackle or a Corey Simon-type that is mammoth strong and quick enough to react to an O-line’s first movements. Additionally, you are dead-on with your take on their RB situation. They are killed when they play teams that run all over the place on defense, a direct result of having shifty backs that are quick to the point-of-attack but have problems changing direction and stopping-and-starting once they get through the initial line. I have to argue your receiver concerns, however…remember, the Eagles made three straight NFC championship games with a very thin corps of wideouts. Yes, I know their defense was better than it is now, but I just think a healthy McNabb allays concerns with a deteriorated receiving group.
I whole-heartedly agree on the TO thing. Of course, we are in a grand minority, but treating Owens as they did was a twofold travesty…they lose one of the best WR talents in the game (albeit a very testy, rock-the-boat type) AND they virtually eliminate any chance of any other big-name WR coming to town in the immediate future. One thing you have to remember about the NFL’s WR position on the whole is that as a rule, the group is very arrogant, very sensative and very apt to make grandiose scene at the first sign of trouble and/or attention. They run their mouths, that’s what they do, and the irrational overreaction by the Eagles will do little to create a sense of comfort for any potential FA receiver worth his salt.
All things considered, I still cannot even fathom a Donovan McNabb led team finishing dead last in the NFL. For that reason and that reason alone, I give the Eagles more credit than you do, but your points are valid and well thought out, so I don’t totally discount that as a possibility.
Thanks for the great comments and thanks for reading!
December 30, 2005
Marc James:
Matt,
Your Packers analysis was a little off. The Packers are not old. Favre is old, but the defense is extremely young and the team on the whole is one of the younger teams in the league. Secondly, the defense was woeful in 2004, not 2005. They are ranked 18th overall, middle-of-the-pack, and actually were No. 1 in pass defense for a time. The defense deserves more respect than that. It’s been the woeful offense that has lost them games.
The Walker holdout issue is a non-issue. He had agreed to come back and play-out his contract on amicable terms. He also ditched Rosenhaus as an agent. He is on good terms with the organization and probably will get an extension if he has a good 2006 (his final year on the rookie contract).
You are correct that they need to upgrade their guards, and possibly a center due to Mike Flanagan’s injuries. They lost two very good guards before the season, but have two excellent tackles, which is something.
However, how can you be so quick to dismiss Samkon Gado as not being their future? I’ve watched him extensively and he has all the skills. He’s 23, has great speed, is very strong, and has great pass-catching skills. More importantly, he has shown the instinct to hit the right holes and seems to be a heady player. He has improved every game, and had several 100-yard games and a ypc over 4. He is more than a one-time fluke.
My hope and prediction is that Sherman stays, only because there are going to be a lot more coaching vacancies this year compared to last. If Sherman is fired, I don’t know if they could really get someone better. I think Favre is gone, and likely so is Green.
Next year, we’ll see Rodgers, Gado, and Walker form the team of the future. The defense is already in place to continue improving and become a top-tier defense under Jim Bates. They will likely miss the playoffs with Rodgers at the helm, but the future is solid.
Oh, and having a top-five draft pick will certainly help!
January 1, 2006
Marc James:
A couple of facts to add to my last comment:
The Packers enter the season finale as the NFL’s top-rated pass defense, allowing just 168.9 yards per game.
Not exactly woeful. More like young and improving.
“Samkon Gado showed he’s capable of being a starting running back in the NFL. What he has done in his short season - 582 yards on 143 carries (4.1 average) and six rushing touchdowns - is impressive. But more important, he should only get better. The facts of his football life - that he rarely started at a small school and wasn’t drafted - are sometimes held against him. If he were a first-round pick with the same performance, he’d be getting rave reviews. The fact that he hasn’t played much makes what he has done all the more remarkable. He’s talented, smart and has a great attitude. What’s not to like?” — Denis Dougherty, PackersNews.com
January 3, 2006
Matt Thomas:
Love the points as always, Marc, but I must defend my stance and am fully prepared to do just that.
First off, regarding the defense. While I cannot argue with the fact that in the nonsensicle world of the NFL, yardage against numbers determine the overall defensive rankings. By this substantially misguided measure, the Pack was indeed numero uno agains the pass. But a deeper review of stats uncovers the truths of the defense. When looking at quarterback rating against (which is a relatively complex formula used to calculate a qb’s effectiveness by factoring in game-impacting stats like TD%, INT% and Yards per attempt), GB ranks 26th overall. They allowed 20 TDs and intercepted only 10 balls all season. Additionally, GB rarely had a lead (many of their close games were due to late rallies) and had a QB who threw 29 picks, which radically shortens the field for the opponents, further cutting into passing yardage statistics.
Secondly, relative to Mr. Gado…I swear I’m not a hater….a Liberty grad who did so much with so little is not something to scoff at…I just don’t think his stats are indicative of his future. First of all, two of his three biggest games came against the Falcons (26th in overall run defense, DEAD LAST in yards/rush - 4.7/carry) and the Lions (24th in overall run defense, 4.2/carry yards against). The third of his three one-hundred yard efforts came against the Eagles, which was his most impressive showing considering the Eagles yield only 3.9 yards/carry and ranked 21st in the league, but they still gave up the fourth most runs of 20 yards or greater over the season, which tells you they were a bit suspect, as well. Gado is a fine runner and should have a nice long shelf-life as a pro, but he is not a #1 option to consider full-time and certainly can not be considered a legit foundation for the future.
Finally, when I say the Pack is “old”, I didn’t mean to imply that they were old in age alone. Perhaps “stale” or “expired” would have been a better choice of words. Favre is old and ready to retire, Green is vanilla even when healthy. The possession receiver thing isn’t really working out as Ferguson (unrealized potential) and Driver (nothing more than a solid #3 guy) are the same old story year after year. As for Walker’s holdout…yes it was a nonfactor in that Javon was ready to play, but I’m telling you right now that locker room was not all smiles when it came to Walker. Things like that tend to polarize a team, so if there are some that are on the anti-Walker side of the fence still around next season, there will be some repercussions into ‘06.
The high draft pick helps (AJ Hawk, here we come), but I stand by my comments. The Pack had a miserable season, have a defense that needs to be fixed and an offense that needs to be reborn. Not saying they can’t do it, just saying that they have to commit to it quickly by making the tough decisions and waving bye to Favre and Sherman (1 down, 1 to go) for the good of the franchise.
January 3, 2006
Marc James:
I’m not saying GB’s defense was number one, just that they deserved much more credit than you gave. They were middle of the pack. However, given how bad the offense was and how many times they were put back on the field due to a turnover, their play was admirable. Them not having an offense made it tougher, and they still were improved over the year before. Credit Jim Bates, who well could be the next coach.
Regarding Gado, you should give him more credit because of the weak o-line he was playing behind and the fact that no other RBs were able to have similar success behind it. He was the fifth RB to start, and the only one who was successful. Green, Davenport, Fisher, etc. played crummy defenses, and still didn’t perform. But Gado did. It is simply ridiculous to discount a rookie player who had the success he did. How can you be so quick to write him off? At least go with the “I’m still unsold” line rather than counting him off. He has *everything* a No. 1 back should have: speed, power, smarts, and receiving skills.
Finally, your feeling that they are old is an illusion. On the face of things, it’s the same few players that get mentioned, but when you look at the underpinnings of the team, from the young defense to other role players, the team has a ton of new faces and young talent.
I agree about Ferguson. He’s a pansy bust who seems willing to let defenders steal passes. However, Driver had a borderline Pro Bowl year with 1,200 yards and 5 TDs. He is a solid No. 1 receiver, and he proved it this year, even with Favre’s erratic passing. I very strongly disagree about Driver … he is probably second to Reggie Wayne as the best No. 2 receiver in the league.
Matt, I watch all of the player interviews and press conferences, and I follow this team closely. Not only has Walker dropped Rosenhaus, so has Grady Jackson and one other player. The holdout issue is over. It’s not an issue.
Yes, the Pack had a miserable season. The defense simply needs more playmakers and more maturity, but they’ve already been gutted in losing guys like Sharper and McKenzie, so “needs fixing” isn’t accurate. Just needs improving.
I think with Walker, Driver, Ferguson, Chatman, and the newly-acquired Rod Gardner (who says he’s happy and dedicated in GB), they could have the best receiving corps in the league. If Gado pans out and Rodgers is able to at least have an Eli Manning-type season, this team could be right back in the hunt with that improving defense. A lot of “ifs,” I know, but my main point is they don’t need to be totally dismantled.
January 3, 2006
Matt Thomas:
Your points are very well made…..I concede the thing on Walker….that’s more of a hunch than anything else and you definitely have more insight into it than me, so I’ve got to go with your take on the matter.
As for Driver, I like the guy, I really do….his numbers are fitting as a #2 or even #1 guy, but as a fan, as you watch, can you honestly tell me that those stats are little more than “too little, too late” add-ons? Does he make the “big catch” regularly? Maybe calling him a #3 is a bit harsh, but, with all due respect for your judgement, I cannot agree with him being the second-best #2 in the game (Larry Fitzgerald, by the way, is that guy). He may be as talented as any other #2 in the game, but you put any #2 guy worth his salt into that offense this season as the #1 guy and they’d have put up stats similar. As a #1, he is a great #2 guy, but as a #2, he is middle-of-the-pack. We can agree to disagree on this point, but I think realistically you have to concede at least some of what I am saying as being accurate in regards to Driver.
As for the “old” thing….I know they have a young group of players….and maybe I should note this as being an inadequacy with my writing style in not being accurate enough in defining my point thoroughly….my point on this matter is the CORE players are the same old-same old you’ve seen over the past few years. You can have an influx of young talent on a roster, but if the direction, style and pace of the team is defined by the same group of players and that group becomes stale in what they do, than a change is necessary for further progress to be made. Favre, Driver, Ferguson, Flanagan, Green, Davenport, Gbaja-Biamila, Al Harris, Bubba Franks, Chad Clifton, William Henderson, Grady Jackson…this group has been the heart-and-soul of the team for several years. I’ve heard for the past four seasons that Ferguson and Driver may well develop into the most dynamic receiving tandem in the league. I’ve heard that Davenport and Green are as explosive a 1-2 running punch as you’ll see. I’ve heard that Biamila, Harris and Jackson anchor a defense that is growing stronger and stronger each year. My point isn’t that the whole team is old and plain and soft….it is that the players who define the team need to change….they need to take the lumps of riding out a full season of dealing with developing youngsters and COMMIT to such a move…this will be a step backward, to be sure. The notable difference b/w the Packers and the others on my list (Jets not included) is that the Pack haven’t yet conceded that they need to backtrack to move forward. They lose their interior linemen last season, they don’t take a different approach on offense. They see Davenport get hurt each year for the past three or so and they don’t sign anyone of note to back up an aging and overused Green. They see they are hopelessly out of the running come mid-year and they don’t do anything to ease Rodgers into the games (granted, this was almost definitely out of respect for Favre, who certainly deserves such treatment). This is the “old” to which I refer. It is almost as if they didn’t take inventory of their own team, which is a travesty in today’s NFL.
I’ve never meant to disrespect Gado, and for that reason, I have certainly noted your suggestions for alternative ways to describe his situation. He was a revelation to be sure but I just don’t believe he can be annointed as a franchise back with his current body of work. Points taken, though, and duly noted.
If you recall, I did have a similar set of point/counter-points with you after I posted my pre-season predictions (which I’ll be following up on here shortly)…Green Bay’s predicament was one of my “hits”, much to your dismay. I said prior to the season that they should have taken better inventory and not tried to hold on to one last gasp effort at success….for the reasons that you see with the release of the final standings this week.
As always, your comments are fantastic and pointed and accurate….I hope that you do see where I’m coming from and realize my points are also well thought out and put together, which is really all I could ask for.
January 3, 2006
Marc James:
Driver is rock-solid and consistent. He keeps himself in tip-top shape and is as good as ever at 30. He didn’t play every down earlier in his career, so he is fresher than most. This is a guy who was a collegiate sprinter and gets everything out of his body.
But my point is that defenses keyed on him the whole season with Walker out and Green and the running game non-existent. You know what? He STILL had a career season. I’ll give you Fitzgerald, and that Driver has peaked, but I still think he’s a top-tier No. 2 receiver, and performed admirably as a No. 1 in tough circumstances.
I agree with you to a certain extent about how the core of the team needs an overhaul. Some of the old guys need to be moved, and some of the youngsters need to step up. With so many FAs this offseason, a lot of change is likely. However, I still maintain that this teams has a lot of parts. On defense, Nick Barnett is on the verge of being a Pro Bowler as he leads the team in tackles year after year. Nick Collins is a rookie safety who is a potential LeRoy Butler-like player. He started all year and got better and better. Then there’s Al Harris, who was a shutdown CB, and Ahmad Carroll has the tools opposite him.
They’re by no means a playoff contender, but I have optimism about the future.
January 4, 2006
Matt Thomas:
Those are great points, Marc….I LOVE Barnett and Collins and do like Carroll, as well. Like I said, I think the gist of your points have been taken to heart…I’m not in disagreement with you on most the points you make, but I perhaps could have better relayed my opinion in my story. I just didn’t want to get to pointed for any given team for fear of overwriting the article….but point well taken, and I agree I should have used different wording to convey the actual point of my piece on the Pack….they are needing to overhaul their core and this will be a bumpy ride that would have been smoother had they transitioned better to this point.
Thanks again for the input and the feedback…it is valued and noted.