Wednesday, December 28, 2005
NFL’s Seven Greatest Offseason Wonders
Week 17 of the NFL season is finally upon us and, while serving as the starting gun for 12 of the more fortunate franchises in their runs at playoff glory, the better part of the league (well, technically that would be the worst part of the league, but putting that in print would just be adding insult to injury) looks at the season's final weekend as a prelude to an off-season period that, in most cases, ends in significant changes as teams try to reload and rebuild for future success.
New Year's day is also upon us and in the spirit of this dawning of a New Year, the missive you are currently reading will not delve into the already over-booked affairs of playoff preparation and prognostication, but will rather discuss the rebirth of seven pro football franchises that will spend their offseasons wondering what went wrong, who's to blame, and just how each wants to go about fixing the blemishes that stare team ownership in the face as they introspect their respective charges.
Now calling out coaching staffs and/or pending front office shake-ups may be fun, but there is no challenge in that, so I'll address those changes briefly: Texans are a mess, Packers will make some big changes, Rams will be looking for a new staff, no more Norv Turner in Oakland, and Herm Edwards should be the next Kansas City Chief coach.
There you have it. Any front office moves beyond those highlighted above are less than sure bets and frankly aren't nearly as reliable as article fodder since either nobody really cares, or those who do care will be too disgusted with their team being mentioned to continue reading. Both options net the same result: fewer readers. Not exactly an eventuality that most of us self-respecting sports writers are comfortable with.
Rather than boring or annoying you with further digressions (again, the goal is to keep you interested here), let's get to the meat of this story: where do the non-playoff combatants go from here? For your consumption, below is a summary for each of the seven teams that are already booking January vacation packages and have been since mid-October. Each team will be listed and a parenthetical description meant to signify the state of every organization is included, or at least the latin-esque equivalent of a meaningful description. (Yeah, big Road Runner vs. Wile E. Coyote fan ... can you seriously blame me? Good stuff.)
As mentioned before, coaching changes, front office movements, and possible changes in home city affiliations (we're looking at you, Tom Benson) will not be addressed so if that is what your football appetite is craving, check out another locale. Otherwise, read on and bon appetite!
Houston Texans (Apocalypticus Franchisus)
State of the Franchise: Either my home town team made a rather unfortunate deal with Lucifer himself or this group is en route to a major offseason overhaul. No position player will be safe, aside from CB Dunta Robinson (who had a disappointing sophomore campaign himself), LB Kailee Wong (injury mulligan), and maybe QB David Carr (who, coincidentally, has seen more grass this season than Snoop Dogg). If form holds, and it will, Houston will be picking first in the 2006 draft and had better pick the superlative USC tailback Reggie Bush, unless they want to play in front of a stadium full of empty seats for the foreseeable future. It's hard to imagine a team needing to start building from the ground up after just four years of existence, but Houston is in that enviable position and really will be a completely new-look team come next fall.
Hit the Road: DBs Phillip Buchanon and Marcus Robinson are both going to be wearing different uniforms next season and their defensive front seven should be shaken up quite noticeably, as well. RB Domanick Davis is very likely to be a very large bit of trade bait if Bush turns pro and should net the Texans a nice package of players or draft picks.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Look for a potential big-money signing like DE John Abraham or CB Nate Clements on defense and a bevy of trades as the team looks to add some youth through the draft to a very bad team. While it is hard to pinpoint just who the Texans will chase this far removed from the free agent season, it is a certainty that the front office will make every effort to make some noise as they try to become a viable franchise moving forward.
Final Prognosis: Not good. Even with some good talent available on the market this spring, they have far too many holes to plug along their offensive line, defensive line, and in their receiver and defensive back corps. If the front office operates as it should, 2006 will be a long year, but a step in the right direction. If the organization attempts to fill their voids by signing veterans, all bets are off for the future and the dismal '05 campaign will be a harbinger for things to come.
New Orleans Saints (Franchisus in Fluxium)
State of the Franchise: Your guess is as good as mine. Texas? Louisiana? Nevada? California? Okay, okay I don't necessarily mean that particular usage of "state," but you get the drift. The Saints are a wreck — their best players were set back by horrific injury and those who remained were inexplicable in their underperformance in what has become a wickedly unfair season of turmoil. Still, there is no excuse for the on-field results and heads must roll.
Hit the Road: Say goodbye to QB Aaron Brooks. He has made his last woeful decision in a Saints uniform, at least as their starting QB, and the burden of blame will certainly be at least partially on him once the smoke clears. WR Joe Horn is aging gracefully, but may be set for a change of scenery, as well, though his price in terms of both trade value and contractual obligations may handcuff the Saints if they attempt to deal him away.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Unfortunately for the Saints, it is going to be next to impossible to woo free agents into whichever city they call home under the current circumstances without overpaying precipitously. The team really needs to snag a stud early in free agency to bring some of the lesser-known players into town, but that scenario is quite unlikely. Perhaps a QB looking for a fresh start and a starting gig will deign to don the gold and black, but aside from the Jay Feidlers and Gus Frerottes of the world, no difference-maker will bring such uncertainty into their professional life intentionally. The draft could net the Saints their future QB (read: Matt Leinart or Vince Young), but beyond that, this team is needing to have their situation settled in a bad way.
Final Prognosis: My heart goes out to the New Orleans franchise and fans, but it is a very bad scene in southern Louisiana right now and the future is just as bleak. A move to a new city is almost a necessity now and with that will come more than one absurdly unbearable season, which makes the future dark indeed for this moribund team.
Green Bay Packers (Buildius Teamus Now)
State of the Franchise: Old. That describes things in Green Bay much more adequately than any metaphor or analogy would. In my pre-season prediction article I begged and pleaded with the reading public to open their eyes and see a disaster-in-the-making (a little self-preserving tooting of my own horn there ... let's not mention my anointing the Falcons as the next world champions). QB Brett Favre is no longer the player he once was. RB Ahman Green was diminished in skill and effectiveness prior to his season-ending injury. Their defense is woeful. Things have to be rebuilt in a hurry in Green Bay or else it will be a return to the Don Majkowski days of frustration and futility for Packer Nation.
Hit the Road: Brett, we love you, you are an all-time great, but you must retire. You still are an adequate starter, but don't go out like this. I beg you. Green is a free agent to be and likely won't be re-signed. WR Javon Walker didn't make any friends with his prolonged preseason holdout and unfortunate season-ending injury. The defense must be re-tooled. We're talking major turnover here.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Yet another team that won't be well-served in signing expensive veterans to ride on a sinking ship. The QB of the future (maybe) is already on the roster in Aaron Rodgers. Offensive lineman help would be a huge plus, but the best guy on the market, OG Steve Hutchinson, will cost an arm and a leg. Youth should be served and the Packers should look to bring LB A.J. Hawk into the fray if the draft plays out as it is at this point.
Future Prognosis: If changes aren't made, the Packers are in for a world of hurt. Samkon Gado is not their running back of the future and their offensive line has more holes in it than the Titanic. Brett Favre's decision on his own future is the ultimate divining rod relative to the short and long-term direction of this legendary franchise, and if the wrong decision is made, even short-term success will be quickly tempered with the reality of long-term turmoil.
New York Jets (What in the Worldius Happened)
State of the Franchise: Would you be able to do your job if you had no hands, one leg, and a big hole in your chest? Well, such is the lot of the New York Jets, who have been hit so hard by the injury bug that they can find no exterminator willing to even try to correct the problem. As a team that yearned for a shot at knocking off the Patriots for divisional supremacy heading into the '05 campaign, the Jets fell far short of their goals and learned a lot about the importance of quality depth. RB Curtis Martin is a year older next season, QB Chad Pennington has yet to prove that he can remain healthy and successfully operate Mike Heimerdinger's deep-passing offense, and their defense is far from elite, making next season's success very much full of "what ifs."
Hit the Road: DE John Abraham should not be back as a Jet as he has alienated a frustrated front office. Pennington's future is in doubt, as well, but this depends on the strategy employed by the front office as they regroup and assess what they think they have in him as a viable franchise quarterback.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Don't be surprised if the Jets make a serious run at RB Jamal Lewis, though the Ravens are unlikely to let him walk away without making any potential suitor pay up. Of all the have-not teams this low in the standings, the Jets stand to gain the most by playing the free agent market, as they do have a solid veteran core and some wiggle-room under the anticipated salary cap. One name to watch closely for the Jets is OG Steve Hutchinson, who is unlikely to be an affordable option for the Seattle Seahawks. In the draft, if USC QB Matt Leinart is on the board wherever the Jets wind up picking, he's a no-brainer.
Final Prognosis: It is hard to get a read on just where the Jets will be in 2006. Age is beginning to creep up on some of the franchise's most heralded veterans and only time will tell if these vets are still capable of being every-down contributors. Smart money says that this wreck of a season is a blip on the radar screen, but the potential loss of coach Herm Edwards may lead to a collapse of epic proportions. My heart (which is anchored by a significant hatred for my beloved Dolphins' most hated rivals) says that the Jets have a long road to hoe in their return to playoff contention, but my mind tells me that they aren't too far off and this dismal season will soon be a distant memory.
San Francisco 49ers (Romus Wasn't Builtium in a Diem)
State of the Franchise: The good news is the team didn't take a step back in 2005. The bad news is they didn't make any particular progress, either. Growth in San Francisco has been delayed due to handcuffs with the cap and a complete turnover in the front office, but it is clear that the team has a plan now and must proceed with implementing that plan and accept the harsh reality that their current struggles are necessary to the long-term success of this once proud franchise.
Hit the Road: Aside from RB Kevan Barlow, who has pretty much played himself out of his last best chance to succeed as a premier back in the league, there shouldn't be too much personnel turnaround in the Bay Area this winter. LB Julian Peterson is one free agent of note, but the coaching staff knows what they have in Peterson and likely will franchise him for another season if a longer-term deal isn't found to be amicable to both sides at the negotiating table.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: All the variables with this team (new coaching staff, young talent base, solid fan base) indicate that no really significant veterans will be courted. Most in the organization realize that the team is a year or two away from really being in a position to make a move, so it would be a shock if big money was doled out anytime soon. That said, WR Reggie Wayne would make a great deal of sense for San Francisco as he is young and would give them the offensive weapon they lust after in the passing game to team with their young franchise QB-in training. The Niners would be giddy if RB Reggie Bush fell in their lap (wouldn't anyone be?), but will likely look at either a top-notch defensive player like LB A.J. Hawk or a stud offensive lineman like D'Brickashaw Ferguson in the draft.
Final Prognosis: As the timeless classic movie "What About Bob?" implies, baby steps are sometimes the most effective means of making real progress. The 49ers would be wise to adhere to that mantra and are looking like a team that is on the right track but still a year or so away from being competitive. Fan patience may be at a minimum in San Fran, but it is, as they say, a virtue and will most certainly be rewarded by an eventual return to prominence.
Oakland Raiders (Bad-assius Façade, Wussium Resultae)
State of the Franchise: The silver and black emblem has long been a harbinger of fear and loathing for opponents. No longer is this the case. Al Davis' penchant for explosive offense has created a combustible combination of mindless mistakes, exploitable defense, and locker-room infighting that earmarks any failed team at any level in any sport. Penalties have long been a part of the equation in Oakland, but those were intimidation penalties in the past with nasty late hits or vicious face-masking infractions. Nowadays, it is ridiculous off-sides penalties on behemoth offensive linemen or wussy illegal contact fouls in an overmatched defensive backfield that undo the Raiders. A simple coaching change will not fix the problem (though it will be the first step) and Davis really needs to rethink his strategy as football pride dies on the sharpened shoulder pads of Raider Nation's undying fanaticism.
Hit the Road: QB Kerry Collins ... buh-bye. CB Charles Woodson ... it's been fun. DT Warren Sapp ... take your tool belt and get out. It will be a fire sale worthy of any great furniture barn's holiday clearance — everything must go and prices will be slashed.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: Has anyone seen a capable tackler? Or maybe an o-lineman that has something other than lead in his motor? Perhaps a defensive lineman that can handle a blocker is out there somewhere? QB Drew Brees may make a move up the coast, but one thing is certain, the Raiders of today will look nothing at all like the team that lines up to play come next September.
Future Prognosis: "Just win, baby" is not something that you'll hear anytime soon in Oaktown. The base is very nice with an explosive crop of receivers and a young and talented LaMont Jordan handling the running duties. But the defense is as bad as it gets and has done little more than age over the past two campaigns. If a real motivator is brought in to coach this squad of underachievers, things may turnaround sooner rather than later, but don't count on that with Mr. Davis running his ship his way. For the foreseeable future, the Raiders are little more than a group of nice fantasy football draft picks wallowing at or near the bottom of the league standings.
Tennessee Titans (Confusium Incorporatus)
State of the Franchise: A mystery wrapped inside of a paradox as the answer to a riddle. The Titans have some great talent and a solid, proven offensive scheme. They have some overachievers on defense, a strong stable of running backs, a tough and savvy quarterback, and some stability along their offensive line. They are no better than a three-win team on paper, but their intangibles make them a six- or seven-win squad. They land somewhere in the middle in results, though, which confounds any who try to explain the current status of the team. I'm going to say it — print this out, because I don't say it often — I am dumbfounded by the Titans. I have no idea where they stand and where their future will take them. Acceptance is the first step to recovery.
Hit the Road: Could be everyone, could be no one, will likely fall somewhere in the middle. RBs Chris Brown and Travis Henry are probably staying put. QB Steve McNair is likely going to retire — but, of course, we've heard that song before. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch may jump ship as a free agent, but his standout performance this season may land him a longer-term deal if he chooses to stays put. Like I said, confusion reigns supreme here.
Roll Out the Welcome Mat: This all depends on who leaves. One thing is for sure, they need a shut-down type of cornerback. For that reason, I say Charles Woodson would be a good fit, but he may be overpaid to move to New Orleans/San Antonio/L.A./Las Vegas. Sorry, but I've got few answers here, either.
Future Prognosis: In the spirit of the rest of this entry, I have no idea what the future holds for Tennessee. They could be a Super Bowl team next season. They may only win two games. They are well-coached, fairly well-managed, and aren't afraid to part with overpriced players when that time comes (Javon Kearse, Justin McCarreins, Samari Rolle, etc.). They seemingly have good scouts who can pick talent out of a crowd, but their cap-management is a relatively weak point and may cost them the ability to overspend for a difference maker on the open market. Lots of "could," "fairly." and "relatively" in this entry, and, frankly, I could have a fairly relative idea of what this franchise is doing, but I just can't put it into words. Sorry, but I'm at a loss here.
***
Beyond these seven teams, you cannot really attribute particular success or failure to enormous needs or monumental misjudgments in talent. The other 13 non-playoff teams all are either underachievers, up-and-comers, or playing exactly at their potential. For that reason and that reason alone, I have left them out of this article. Yes, the Rams, Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, and Falcons all have some work to do to fix the problems that caused them to disintegrate this season. It is true that the Browns, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Vikings, and Cowboys still have some big moves to make if they want to continue their assent to the league's elite.
But each of those teams can pin their results on substantive realities that can be easily identified. The seven teams highlighted above are miserable failures in every sense of the word and really have to take long, hard looks at themselves to see if their current models are based on sound business decisions made by competent individuals who know right from wrong.
For my money, these are the seven teams that bear the most scrutiny once the lights are shut down for the final time in Detroit, Michigan after the Super Bowl XL post-party is finished.
If not, they'll find themselves on this same list next season. Perish the thought.