NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Why were Tom Brady and Chris Simms still in the game when it was 28-0? Aren't these guys supposed to be hurt? The game's over, get them out of there!

* There were some potentially huge injuries on the offensive line this weekend, most notably Indy's Ryan Diem and Washington's Randy Thomas.

* Steve Martin used to be funny, didn't he? It's getting hard to remember.

* Earlier this season, I praised Sterling Sharpe as an announcer. I take it back.

* On Sunday, Dan Dierdorf said, "A lot of receivers in the game now make the catch and drop to the ground like a quail; these Colts receivers [fight] for yardage." Uh, didn't Marvin Harrison invent dropping like a quail?

***

Saturday games are bittersweet for devotees of the National Football League: while it means more football, it also means the end of the season is approaching. This Saturday's games were mostly sweet, and none was better than Kansas City's trip to the Meadowlands. The Chiefs, fighting for their playoff lives, probably should have won. The Giants had key injuries on the offensive line and to their great middle linebacker, Antonio Pierce. William Roaf manhandled New York's best defensive player, Osi Umenyiora. Eli Manning had a terrible game. And Larry Johnson ran wild, with 167 yards and 2 TDs. With all those factors working for them, the Chiefs couldn't stop Tiki Barber, and they lost, 27-17.

The Giants looked tight at the beginning of the game. The reshuffled offensive front couldn't open holes for Barber, and the defensive line was plainly getting beaten by Kansas City's blockers. The offensive line came together later in the game, combining with fullback Jim Finn — and good downfield blocking by receivers — to open running lanes for Barber, who broke Choo-Choo Roberts' team record for single-game rushing yardage. I would have pulled Barber around the two-minute warning, though. I know Tom Coughlin wanted to help him get the record, but that kind of workload can lead to injuries, and when a player has that much adrenalin, he may not realize he should sit down.

Barber's performance stood in stark contrast to his quarterback's. There was no better illustration than when the home crowd was chanting Tiki's name, and booing Little Manning. Bonnie Bernstein delivered a "report" late in the game about Little Manning's poise and continued composure. And to be fair, that's probably right: he was equally bad throughout the contest. Playing against the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense, Eli completed barely half his passes, had fewer yards than his running back, and managed a 68.0 passer rating.

Jim Nantz did probably the best game I've heard from a play-by-play announcer all year, despite a few muffs, such as declaring, "Perfect snap!" on one that was anything but, low and way inside. Nantz also went out on a limb by saying that the Patriots are "certainly playing maybe their best football of the season." Certainly maybe. Way to take a stand. Despite those goofs, Nantz was on top of the action and even got in some decent analysis. This is faint praise, but right now Nantz and Phil Simms are probably the best announcing team on television.

Moving on to the power rankings, the Colts stay on top despite a loss. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Talked themselves into needing to maintain "rhythm" going into the playoffs, justifying attempts to go 16-0. Now that they can't go undefeated, it looks like the stars are going to get a lot of rest. I'm not sure they weren't right before the Chargers game, though. If they lose to the Seahawks on Saturday, the Colts may go to the postseason worried that they've lost their magic, or can't beat good teams. I said this about Andy Reid's Eagles last year, and normally it wouldn't matter too much, but with Indy's first opponent likely to be the Patriots, it should be a point of major concern. On the other hand, maybe Tony Dungy is worried that if they go all out against Seattle and lose, the team's confidence will be totally shattered. It may be a while before we know how this loss will affect the Colts.

2. New England Patriots [7] — I'm not sure they're really better than Seattle, but I think the Patriots would beat Cincinnati if they met next week. The Pats are probably going to play the Colts in the second round of the AFC playoffs, and for the third year in a row, it will be the most anticipated matchup of the postseason. The left side of the offensive line, Tom Ashworth and Logan Mankins, were great against Tampa.

3. Seattle Seahawks [2] — Lofa Tatupu, through no fault of his own, probably lost Defensive Rookie of the Year honors on Sunday. Tatupu and Cincinnati's Odell Thurman were leading candidates, but after what Shawne Merriman did against the Colts, he has to be the front-runner. If it's consolation to the Seahawks, Shaun Alexander is likely to win league MVP. This changes all the time, and there are two weeks left, but with Peyton Manning in mothballs, LaDainian Tomlinson effectively out of the race, and Barber coming on too late, Alexander appears to have the best chance. Of the many other candidates people mention, only Brian Urlacher is realistic, and I don't think he'll win. Just to be clear, these are predictions, not opinions.

4. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — Playing well enough that they almost skipped over the Seahawks and into third, but I think they may experience just-happy-to-be-here syndrome in the playoffs. Marvin Lewis is such a good coach that normally I wouldn't worry about it, and Lewis did win a Super Bowl as defensive coordinator of the Ravens, but there's only so much the coach can do. This is a young team with an immature vibe. I also question the defense's ability to stop good teams.

5. New York Giants [4] — It's hard to see the Giants doing much in the playoffs if Little Manning doesn't get a lot better in the next few weeks. Pierce is out for the season, which is a major blow to the defense, so the offense has to step up, and Barber can't run for 200 yards every week.

6. San Diego Chargers [5] — Beat the Colts on the line, on both sides of the ball, but the offense had the easier task. Indianapolis was without Robert Mathis and Corey Simon, and Larry Tripplett left the game with an injury. San Diego's defense rattled Manning by bringing pressure from different places — if the Colts' offense has a weakness, it's clearly the 3-4 defense. On the game's signature play, though, the defense was incidental. On fourth-and-goal, Manning tried several times to quiet the home crowd, and when the ball was snapped, there was obviously some miscommunication as to whether the team was running or throwing. Manning ended up wandering by the left sideline and was sacked by Merriman. A broken play, and it may have been the difference between the '72 Dolphins and the '98 Vikings.

7. Denver Broncos [6] — If they finish with the same record as Cincinnati, the Broncos will get a first-round bye because of a superior mark in conference games. That also means that if the Bengals win their first-round game, they'll travel to Denver for the divisional round. You heard it here first: the Broncos win that game, then lose badly in the AFC Championship, to whoever wins the other divisional game.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [11] — A reader noted that I picked nine (actually eight) Steelers for my Pro Bowl team, wondering if I'm a Pittsburgh fan. I'm not. I also took seven Seahawks and six Colts. Last season, I took nine Eagles and seven Chiefs. In the four years I've been covering the Pro Bowl for Sports Central, my most-picked teams have been Kansas City (27), Pittsburgh (18), and Tampa Bay (17), followed by the Colts and Packers (15 each), then the Patriots and Eagles (14 each). I'm not a Chiefs fan, either. I just really like Tony Gonzalez and the offensive line.

9. Chicago Bears [12] — Last week, I wrote that Kyle Orton should remain the starter, but he showed absolutely nothing in the first half against Atlanta, and Lovie Smith can't put Rex Grossman back on the bench after what he did in the second half. With Orton in, the Bears were running the ball on third-and-10. Craig Krenzel had a 3-0 stretch with this team last year, and Orton's 8-4 start may have been of the same nature.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [8] — All their stars were quiet against New England. Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks made about one play each. Cadillac Williams touched the ball 17 times and never gained more than three yards. Ronde Barber had one tackle. It's hard to win when you get nothing from the guys you count on.

11. Carolina Panthers [14] — Three wins in their last five games, against pretty good competition, but they went 1-2 against the teams with winning records, beating Atlanta at home, but losing to Tampa and at Chicago. The Panthers could be dangerous in the playoffs, but I think they're too inconsistent and one-dimensional to advance all the way to the Super Bowl.

12. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — Tiki Barber's performance put his name into MVP discussions — and he deserves more serious consideration than he's likely to get — but he got a big assist from Kansas City's defense, which put on as bad a display of tackling as we've seen this year. Quarterback Trent Green continued to struggle, as well. His numbers aren't significantly worse than in previous years, but he seems to have lost some confidence and consistency.

13. Washington Redskins [17] — Clearly, the coaching staff saw vulnerabilities in the Cowboys' pass protection (and Drew Bledsoe's tendency to hold the ball). Washington blitzed all afternoon, getting to Bledsoe seven times. They're 7-2 when Cornelius Griffin is healthy, and 1-4 without him. They're 3-4 when LaVar Arrington plays most of the game, and 5-2 when he doesn't.

14. Miami Dolphins [18] — Four wins in a row, including on the road against San Diego. The Dolphins have scored more than 20 points in each of those games, after doing it in only four of their first 10, but it's the defense that has really stepped up. Jason Taylor recorded three of Miami's six sacks against the Jets.

15. Dallas Cowboys [10] — The offensive line is already weak, and if Marco Rivera misses any time, it will get worse. Dallas has lost three of its last four, all against good teams (combined 37-19), but if they really deserved to be in the playoffs, the Cowboys would have pulled another one of those out.

16. Minnesota Vikings [13] — Lost an ugly game at home. The teams combined for just 460 yards, and both had double-digit penalties. That type of game favors the Steelers. It's mostly been floated as an idea rather than a serious proposal, but let's entirely abandon the ridiculous notion of Mike Tice as Coach of the Year. People who might get fired at the end of the season don't win that award. Anyway, the Vikings' best coaching move all year was made by Chris Gamble and Mike Minter, the Carolina DBs who injured Daunte Culpepper.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [15] — They've scored progressively fewer points in every game since Byron Leftwich was hurt, sliding from 31 in Week 11 to just 10 — against the league's worst defense — in Week 15. I don't know if the Jags are really worse than Dallas and Minnesota, but those teams didn't have to squeak by the 49ers.

18. Atlanta Falcons [16] — Jim Mora, Jr. had a bad night against Chicago. First, he made a stupid challenge, to get 3rd-and-8 instead of 3rd-and-13, which he lost anyway. Later, he earned a 15-yard penalty for fighting with the officials. I think Mora is too immature and thin-skinned to be an NFL head coach. His smug, defensive manner is off-putting enough, but he's not getting results, either. The Falcons' enormously-talented defense is a mediocre 14th, and Michael Vick has shown absolutely no progress under this coaching staff.

19. Cleveland Browns [20] — In all the fuss about "only undefeated team", let's not forget the 1948 Cleveland Browns, who went 14-0 and won the AAFC Championship. Competition in the AAFC wasn't as high as in the NFL, but the Browns dominated the league, and immediately became the best team in the NFL when the two leagues merged before the 1950 season. The team featured many future Pro Football Hall of Famers, including head coach Paul Brown, quarterback Otto Graham, and fullback Marion Motley. Brown is the father of the modern game, Motley is almost universally considered the greatest fullback in history, and I believe Graham was the greatest quarterback ever to play.

20. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Won with only 201 yards of offense, and four turnovers. I have no idea how this happened.

21. Baltimore Ravens [22] — If you're keeping an eye on Minnesota's playoff chances, keep an eye on Baltimore 5-2 home record. Did anyone else notice that during the introductions, Ed Reed said, "Miami" instead of "The U?" I can't decide whether or not that's refreshing. Probably.

22. Oakland Raiders [21] — The consensus seems to be that Norv Turner will be fired at the end of the season, and knowing Al Davis' itchy trigger finger, that's probably true, but I think it's a mistake. His rebuilding team has shown flashes, and I think Turner has done a reasonably good job. Besides, with many other teams likely to have head coaching vacancies this offseason, and no slam-dunk candidates available, who is Davis going to find that's better? Turner should get another year.

23. St. Louis Rams [24] — Passed San Francisco for the league's worst scoring defense, allowing an average of 28.2 points per game. The two meet on Saturday. Take the over. (I remember predicting, in 2000, that the Rams would beat the Niners 80-73. I was mostly joking. The actual final was 34-24.)

24. Buffalo Bills [25] — On paper, the Bills have a good defensive backfield. Troy Vincent and Lawyer Milloy aren't at the top of their respective games, but they're still savvy, above-average players, while Nate Clements and Terrence McGee are rising stars. You would think one of them could cover Rod Smith.

25. Tennessee Titans [29] — Played tough against Seattle, and this is an easy club to root for. That said, they haven't beaten anyone but the two worst teams in the league (2-12 Houston and 2-12 San Francisco) since Week 2, September 18 at home against Baltimore. Tennessee lost to the Cardinals, Raiders, and Browns in succession a month ago. Against Indianapolis, the Titans lost 35-3. I could justify ranking them 30th.

26. New York Jets [30] — How bad are the league's worst teams this year? This is the second spot in a row featuring a team that lost, but rose four places anyway.

27. Arizona Cardinals [23] — All you need to know about their game against Houston is that the Texans sacked Arizona's quarterbacks twice as often as the Cardinals got to David Carr.

28. New Orleans Saints [26] — Rough start for Todd Bouman, who had five turnovers against Carolina. The Saints rank 29th in points for and points against. I'm not sure why they aren't 29th here, too.

29. Green Bay Packers [27] — Why on earth were they in a shotgun formation on 3rd-and-1 with 0:25 left? Aaron Rodgers was struggling, and they put him in an obvious passing formation, so the Ravens could send the wolves without having to respect the run. What a terrible call.

30. Detroit Lions [28] — Five losses in a row, and I was prepared to drop them to 32nd, but the transcendent badness of the Texans and 49ers stopped me. Four of those five losses were to teams with winning records, and the other was last week's game against Green Bay, which the Lions would have won if Mike Carey hadn't let Samkon Gado cheat. Houston and San Francisco, in contrast, lose to pretty much everyone, frequently by wide margins.

31. Houston Texans [31] — Scored 30 points for the first time this season, despite the absence of their best player. Jonathan Wells, though, has been a capable backup for Houston. Just for something to say, I notice Kris Brown, the kicker, had a tackle against Arizona.

32. San Francisco 49ers [32] — Against Jacksonville, Alex Smith went 8-of-24 with an interception, and it wasn't even his worst game of the season. Smith has 10 interceptions and no touchdowns. His passer rating is 26.6, slightly higher than Ryan Leaf's rookie year, but lower than Leaf's career numbers. The Niners need to get Smith some help this offseason. Multiple upgrades to the offensive line would probably be best, but that Reggie Bush kid might help, too.

Comments and Conversation

December 20, 2005

Ray Meyers:

Very nice. I’m bookmarking the site. Your commentary seems very well informed, yet you don’t pretend to know the unknowable, like so many I’ve read.

I’ve been a Seahawks fan since a season or two before the Houston Oilers waived a small, slow receiver named Largent. I remember Mom entering a contest to name the team in ‘73 or ‘74. I think we sent in timber-centric monickers for consideration (Lumberjacks, Sawyers, what have you).

It’s nice to read an assessment of the team that acknowledges the good without gushing. Also your power ranking looked reasonable for the other teams in the league. My only gripe is the top five.

I would put the Bengals at number 2, the Pats at number 3, and then my beloved ‘Hawks at number 4.

I know. I’m weird. On the other hand, I want Indy’s first string to play the game Sunday. I want the Seahawks to take the best the Colts have to offer, and whup their asses anyway.

It’s nice to dream.

December 21, 2005

Jeff:

Don’t know if I agree that the Pats would be that high. I think the Chargers deserve to be right up there. The thing that the Pats have going against them is that they won’t have home-field past the first round. That’s what has essentially clinched it a lot of times in games against the Colts, etc. I know they won in Pittsburgh last year, but they’re not last year’s team, and they’ll have to go into Indy, and they would have to win in Cincinnati. I don’t think they’re as good without Weis and Crennel

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