The Toronto Blue Jays have opened up their wallets and will shell out a whopping $102 million over the next five years on hard-throwing right-hander A.J. Burnett and closer B.J. Ryan. They improved their offense by trading for Lyle Overbay.
And you know what's going to happen next — some fans and media members are going to jump on the Toronto bandwagon because they are sick of New York and Boston's success. "Look out for Toronto!" they will say, something we have heard for the past, oh, 12 years now.
But before anyone is ready to crown the Jays champions of the American League East, or seriously consider them as contenders, let us look at a few things.
First, Burnett is far from a sure thing. He had a very solid season last year, hurling 209 innings while posting a 3.44 ERA. But, when you take into consideration that he pitched for the National League in a pitchers' park, that is far from dominant.
You also have to question the character of a guy who was asked to leave the Marlins last year in late-September, following negative comments he made to reporters regarding the team's play down the stretch, which was ironic, considering he posted an ERA of 5.93 in his last five starts of the year.
How is he going to react if the Blue Jays play poorly?
Ryan was excellent last year, compiling 36 saves while striking out 100 batters in just 70.1 innings. At only 29-years-old, he could be ready to string together many good seasons in a row. Then again, look at how many closers/relievers flame out so quickly.
Overbay is coming off a solid season in which he hit 19 home runs and posted a .367 OBP. His .816 OPS is better than any Toronto regular last season — Shea Hillenbrand led the team with a .782 OPS. And while Overbay is an upgrade, no doubt, he is not going to turn their offense that was just 11th in the American League in home runs and 10th in slugging percentage into a juggernaut.
Then there is Toronto's competition. Yes, the Red Sox and Yankees look to have some flaws right now, but when all is said and done, the Red Sox will likely enter camp with Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon returning, coupled with the addition of Josh Beckett. And let us not forget that Boston won 95 games last year, despite having virtually zero production from Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke.
The Yankees have been written off more times than I can count, yet they always seems to be there at the end. Next year should be no different. Besides centerfield, they have no real glaring holes in their starting lineup. Their starting pitching is a bit overrated, because some of the big name pitchers, notably Mike Mussina, are clearly not what they used to be. But when you have a lineup that features Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, and Gary Sheffield in the heart of your order, coupled with Mariano Rivera at the back end of your bullpen, it is not as if you need five aces to win games.
The Blue Jays should be better next season, but keep in mind that they were just an 80-win, third-place-team last year. Even if the additions of Burnett, Ryan, and Overbay lead them to 90 wins, they are still probably going to fall a few games short of the Big Boys in the American League East.
December 13, 2005
Isabella Reyes:
I agree that the Jays need t least one big bat to make a difference in the AL East. But if Burnett and Ryan were so damn’ bad, why were they so hotly pursued by other teams? Yes, they’re both a gamble. But Ricciardi et all knew all about Burnett long before he made that top bid. The Jays had scouts at every game Burnett pitched. They obviously think they spotted something there.
NY struggled last year, even with all those big stars. They made the playoffs, but that is as far as they went. Boston did the same. So far, neither team has made any substantive changes. I’m a long-time TO fan, and I’m not approaching next season as if we’re going to the Series again. But we have a couple of things going for us that might take us further than we’ve been for a while: excellent, Gold Glove defense, an extremely good bullpen and the possibility of good pitching. We were an 80-game team last year, but we lost our ace before the midpoint of the season. We also lost a bunch of one-run games, and we blew way too many saves. If you look at how Halladay pitched, you have to assume we would have won 6-7 more games at least with him on the mound. Add a decent closer who might have held the lead, say, three more times, and you have a 90-game team right there.
December 13, 2005
David Sussman:
I find it quite pathetic that just because the Jays gave more money to BJ Ryan than was expected, every writer has to bash him and say he is a fluke.
Well, if you were to look at his stats, virtually every season he has allowed LESS hits and MORE strikeouts than innings pitched. If that isn’t consistent, I don’t know what is. Had he signed with the Yankees, I’m sure no one would bring up any consistency issue.