In September, I was bold enough to make some predictions about who would win their respective divisions in the AFC. With four games left in the season, and with some teams fighting for their playoff lives, I thought it would be interesting to revisit these picks and look at where we stand today.
At the start of the season, I picked the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Oakland Raiders to win their divisions. It looks like I was half right. The Colts are a lock for their division and the Patriots are looking solid, as well. The Steelers' loss to the Bengals last Sunday, combined with the Bengals' weak schedule, makes a Pittsburgh divisional title unlikely. Obviously, the Raiders aren't going to win the AFC West. In an effort to hold myself accountable, let's rundown what I got right and what I got wrong.
Let's start with what I got right:
AFC East
Here is what I said about the New England Patriots:
The world champions lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators. This is the wildcard, as it can't be easy to deal with that kind of change. But they have Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady leading the offense. Add a healthy Corey Dillon, a solid receiver core, and a reloaded defense, and it gets hard to bet against them. If the Pats can keep their team chemistry among the changes, look for them to make a serious run at another title.
Okay, so maybe they won't make a "serious run" at another title, but they are still slated for a comfortable divisional title. This once competitive division has been weakened by injury and poor quarterback play. New England has been hit by the injury bug and it has devastated their defense — the secondary in particular — but they still have a great leader in Tom Brady and it looks like Corey Dillon might finally be healthy. The Pats have beaten each of their divisional rivals once and it seems likely that they will continue to do so and thus wrap up the division. I wouldn't bet on the Patriots going deep into the playoffs with their beat up defense, but I have a hard time seeing teams led by Gus Frerotte, J.P. Losman, and Brooks Bollinger beating Tom Brady and company.
AFC South
Here is the question I posed regarding the Colts:
Can the Colts stop teams enough to outscore them? Another offseason has passed without any big-name improvements, but they are deeper and have some young talent. They have added another tough Big 10 guy in the secondary in Marlin Jackson and Mike Doss is as tough as they come. Will it be enough to make it to the Super Bowl? Who knows, but it should be fun to watch.
I think we can safely say the answer is yes. This has to be one of the biggest stories of the season. The Colts' defense has played remarkably well. It looks as if they have finally developed that toughness that Tony Dungy has been looking for. After struggling a little bit in Weeks 2 and 3, the Colts have gone on a tear, averaging 35 points a game and destroying some impressive opponents. They torched the Patriots and Bengals on the road and whipped the Steelers at home.
The question on everybody's mind now is whether the Colts can go undefeated. I knew their offense would be good, but I didn't have any idea their defense would be so stout and opportunistic. It goes without saying that the Colts will be the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year.
Let's move on to what I was wrong about.
AFC North
As much as it pains me to say it, I was wrong about the Bengals. Here is what I had to say in September:
A lot of folks will probably pick the Cincinnati Bengals as a sleeper winner in this division. I don't see it this year. Sure, they will have a strong offense with the evolving Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Rudi Johnson. But in this division, you must run and stop the run to win. The Bengal defense is still suspect in my mind. If the defense can't get the ball back for the offense, all that talent is wasted.
I was right about the defense in many ways. In October, they faced the Steelers at home and lost, 27-13. This seemed to encapsulate the Bengals' problems. The Steelers' defense kept Palmer guessing and used a powerful running game to control the clock and the tempo. Things seemed to be going as I expected. The Bengals' offense looked good at times, but good defense and a physical running would keep the Bengals off the field.
What I underestimated was the ability of the Bengals' offense to generate points and the opportunistic nature of their defense. When you combine the potent offense with a turnover-creating defense and a relatively weak schedule, you have the ingredients for a resurgent team in Cincinnati. The second meeting between the Steelers an Bengals is a good example. Sure, the Bengals defense gave up 31 points, but they also came up with four turnovers. The special teams unit also had a great showing. All of this added up to a crucial win and the driver's seat in the division; not to mention their first winning season since 1990.
It remains to be seen how far the Bengals can go in the playoffs. The defense is still suspect. Although they lead the league in turnover ratio (an astounding +24), they have given up an average of 35 points a game in their last three games. Teams like the Colts, Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers have the talent on offense to give the Bengals trouble. You know Marvin Lewis is working every day to toughen up his defense for just this reason.
Allow me a moment to talk about my beloved Steelers and the uphill climb they face. Coming off a remarkable 15-1 season and yet another AFC Conference Championship game loss, the Steelers were intent on getting to the Super Bowl. But injuries and miscues have forced them to fight for their playoff lives. Ben Roethlisberger has been banged up all season and has missed four games. Charlie Batch was able to win two games before getting hurt himself. the same can't be said for Tommy Maddox. His poor play against Jacksonville and Baltimore produced two heartbreaking overtime losses that loom large today.
Despite the devastating loss to Cincinnati on Sunday, if they win those two games (and they were in a position to do just that), they would be tied with the Bengals in the division with four games to go. More importantly, they would have been ahead of Kansas City and San Diego in the wildcard race and tied with the Jaguars while holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Instead, they are a game behind the Chiefs and Chargers and need to win out to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.
AFC West
This is the most competitive division in the AFC and the playoff race will be intense. Unfortunately, the Raiders won't be in it. Of all my predictions, this was the most off. Here is what I had to say in September:
There is always a chance that the unstable Randy Moss will do something to undermine his success at his new home in Oakland. But on paper, the Raiders look dangerous on offense. Say what you will about Kerry Collins, but he can throw the ball deep. And in Moss, Jerry Porter, and Ronald Curry, he has the weapons to do it. Add in Lamont Jordon to run the ball, and the offense looks solid. I don't think the defense will be the best in the league, but I have a feeling they will have better chemistry and a better game plan with the newly-installed 4-3. I think they will do just enough better on offense and defense to win the division.
Wrong. Clearly, the Raiders aren't any better on defense and they are not even as good on offense as they were last year. I thought this team had the potential to gel and outscore opponents. Instead, the offense has looked out of sync and the defense hasn't stopped anyone. Randy Moss has been banged up and unproductive. They lost their first three games and have struggled to stay competitive ever since. To add insult to injury, they have lost every divisional game.
Instead of the Raiders, it was the Denver Broncos that got on a roll. After getting beat by Miami in the season opener the Broncos reeled off five straight wins and have won four of their last six. For awhile, it looked like Denver might run away with the division. But heartbreaking losses to the New York Giants and their divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs have put the Broncos in the middle of a tough battle. The Broncos are 9-3 while both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers are 8-4.
Interestingly, all three teams rely on the running game. The Broncos of course seem to be able to run no matter who is in the backfield. This year, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell (and the occasional Ron Dayne) have continued the tradition of a powerful ground attack. The weak point of the Denver offense always seemed to be Jake Plummer's flakiness — he seemed to make mistakes at key moments. This year, he has played more within the game plan, letting the running game carry the weight. But Kansas City was able to stymie that running game and force Plummer into mistakes (two interceptions). Plummer's play will be key down the stretch.
Both Kansas City and San Diego have powerful running backs and great tight ends. LaDainian Tomlinson is perhaps the best all-around back in the league and Larry Johnson has once again proved he can step in and replace Priest Holmes. Tony Gonzalez seems to have finally found his way back into the Chiefs playbook and he gives Trent Green a dangerous weapon in the middle of the field. Antonio Gates leads the Chargers in receiving and is a security blanket for Drew Brees. After a rough start, the Chargers have won five straight games and eight of their last 10. Kansas City has won three straight, including a huge win against Denver on Sunday. The Chiefs' defense — a focus this offseason — remains inconsistent, but Larry Johnson is a punishing game-changing back that opens up the offense for Trent Green.
If their is a roadblock for Kansas City it is their schedule — the toughest of any playoff caliber team. Every one of their remaining opponents has a winning record. They must go on the road against the Giants and Cowboys only to return home to games against the Chargers and Bengals. San Diego's schedule isn't much easier. They face Miami at home on Sunday before road games against the Colts and Chiefs finishing with a home game against Denver. Denver has the easier road, facing Baltimore, Buffalo, and Oakland before the final clash against San Diego.
So how do I think all of this will play out? Well, first off I think the Colts will win their division. I have no idea whether they will rest their players or go for the glory of an undefeated season. If I had to guess right now, I say Dungy rests his stars for key minutes and the Colts lose a game or two. The risk of injury is just too great in the NFL. Dungy's goal is the Super Bowl and the Colts are certainly the favorite to make it there.
I also think the Patriots will win their division. I think it is likely that they win thee out of their four remaining games. I don't expect them to do much in the postseason, however, as the teams they are likely to face have too much firepower for the Patriots' depleted defense to handle.
I can't see the Bengals stumbling too munch with their schedule. They are likely to win three of four and win the division at 12-4. That Kansas City game seems to be where they are most likely to stumble, but by then, they should have the division wrapped up.
Picking a winner in the AFC West is like rolling dice. Denver, however, has the lead and the easier schedule. Like the Bengals, I see them winning three of their last four and winning the division at 12-4. That season finale at San Diego looms large.
As for the wildcard, I think the Jaguars will make it. They have a soft schedule, and despite the loss of Byron Leftwich, I think they lose to Indy this Sunday and then win out against San Francisco, Houston, and Tennessee. Their defense is good enough and David Garrard is competent enough to win against mediocre teams. If Fred Taylor can get healthy, they will be a dangerous team in the postseason, as well.
That last remaining spot in the AFC is tough to call. My Steelers have a tough road to climb, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. They have the easiest schedule. After facing a tough Bears defense (but struggling offense) at home on Sunday, they face the Vikings, Browns, and Lions. The Steelers are likely to be favored to win all of these games.
As I noted above, the Chargers and Chiefs face a tougher road. Interestingly, a lot may depend on whether the Colts are resting their players when they face the Chargers December 18. If we give them the game in Indy, I still think they lose to the Chiefs on Christmas Eve. The season finale against Denver is going to be a huge game. Maybe I am biased (yeah, I am biased), but I find it hard to believe that the Chiefs will win two tough road games and both games against two of the better teams in the league. I think it is entirely possible the Chiefs will go 2-2.
So if the Chargers finish 11-5 and the Chiefs end up 10-6, the Steelers will have to win out to finish 11-5. If they can do this, they will win the tiebreaker by virtue of their win against the Chargers in October. This would mean the AFC playoffs would include the Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Broncos, Jaguars, and Steelers.
Picking between the Steelers, Chargers, and Chiefs is not easy. All three teams have looked good at times and yet have been inconsistent. The Chargers have the most momentum and the Chiefs are ridding high after a big win. The Steelers, meanwhile, are reeling after three straight losses. Why pick the Steelers to run the table and sneak in? Is it because I would be devastated if they miss the playoffs? Perhaps, but I also think they have the talent and the schedule to do it. Would anyone have predicted last year that they would win 14 straight games with a rookie QB? The Chargers and Chiefs face a tougher schedule and a fierce divisional fight. I think with their backs up against the walls, Pittsburgh will be motivated to prove they still belong, but I admit that it is really a toss up at this point.
No matter who you think is going to get into the postseason, football fans have to be excited about the next four weeks. Each week will have games where a season hangs in the balance and the final week is likely to showcase a couple of games that will determine whether teams live to fight another day or start their vacations. Isn't that what it is all about?
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