NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The Eagles got blown out on the night they retired Reggie White's uniform. The Cowboys lost when they inducted the Triplets into their Ring of Honor. Let's stop pretending these things inspire a team. They don't.

* Steve Smith's baby-changing act was the most disgusting endzone performance I have ever seen. Say what you will about the Randy Moss moon show, at least it didn't involve human waste.

* I like endzone celebrations. I dislike contrived performances like Smith's and Chad Johnson's. Mike Anderson, who still does the Mile High Salute, is my favorite. Above all, let's show replays and highlights of plays, not endzone acts.

* John Lynch draws a lot of fines and penalties, and he's frequently defended as "not a dirty player." Lynch isn't dirty, but he is unsafe, and whatever the intent, he breaks rules the league has put in place to protect players' safety.

* Did Penn State really get stuck with FSU? That should be a great game. In opposite world!

***

The Indianapolis Colts aren't just 12-0 — they're a strong 12-0. They've won nine of their last 10 games by two touchdowns or more. They've beaten Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at home, New England and Cincinnati on the road. Indianapolis is fourth in the NFL in total offense, third in total defense, first in scoring, second in points allowed.

There are four teams whose net points are better than +100: the Giants are +101, San Diego is +128, Seattle is +130, and the Colts are +204. Their point differential is more than twice as high as the fourth-best team in the league. They can clinch the AFC's top seed with a win in Jacksonville.

Indianapolis has two of the NFL's realistic MVP candidates this season, quarterback Peyton Manning and running back Edgerrin James. Manning is the more likely contender at this point, but James is a huge weapon in that offense, and he'll be the first player to sit if Tony Dungy pulls his starters. Before the quarterback? Maybe not, but no later. Manning is anything but injury-prone, and he's got a great line protecting him. James gets hit on every play, and he does have a history of injury.

In the 1999 and 2000 seasons, James had a combined 756 carries and 125 receptions. The next season, he had 151 rushes in six games before suffering an injury that sidelined him for the rest of the year. It took two more seasons before he fully recovered. Now, James has 304 carries, putting him on pace for 405, just shy of Jamal Anderson's record (410).

If James gets anywhere near 400 carries, he will break down. It could be some time next season, or it could be in this year's playoffs. Dungy and Tom Moore need to be cautious about their star running back's workload.

Moving on to the power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Indianapolis Colts [1] — After giving up 37 points against Cincinnati, the defense has allowed a total of 10 points over the last two weeks. The Colts have held their opponent to seven points or less on six occasions this year, best in the league. If the team rests its stars, I think one of the first guys you'll see on the sideline is Dwight Freeney.

2. San Diego Chargers [3] — Average almost 30 points per game (29.8, trailing only the Colts), and haven't allowed an opponent to score 30 all season. Drew Brees is having a sensational year. At the beginning of the season, there was still some uncertainty as to whether San Diego might take its chances with Philip Rivers in 2006, but at this point, there's no way you let Brees get away.

3. Seattle Seahawks [4] — With the Seahawks looking like Super Bowl contenders, I think you'll see Dungy shelve the gameplan when the Colts travel to Seattle in Week 16. When the Colts got blasted by Denver at the end of last season, it was less about the backups and more about Indianapolis not wanting to give the Broncos any looks. I expect the same thing this year, and that could be the difference between 15-1 and perfection.

4. Denver Broncos [2] — The Colts seem to be resisting the hype, but I think the Broncos fell for theirs. They've been sloppy each of the last two weeks, barely beating Dallas and losing to Kansas City. They'll probably wake up and get back on track, but the Broncos have not looked sharp recently. On the bright side, maybe the ludicrous Jake Plummer for MVP talk will finally disappear now.

5. Carolina Panthers [8] — I know I'm not the only one who's been saying all season that DeShaun Foster should be getting more carries, so it's hard to understand why it's taken so long for him to get involved in the offense.

6. Cincinnati Bengals [9] — The defense is exposed further every week, now ranking 28th in yards allowed. Tom Moore's Colts laid a blueprint to beat the Bengals through the air, and they've allowed their three highest point totals of the season in the last three weeks. Lack of pass rush is the biggest problem (they're 28th in sacks, too). In 2004, Justin Smith made my Pro Bowl ballot, but he hasn't been impressive when I've seen the Bengals this year.

7. New York Giants [5] — Osi Umenyiora is making an all-pro push, but Little Manning had another awful game, and that kind of inconsistency will burn the Giants in the postseason. He now has a lower completion percentage than Alex Smith, more interceptions than Kerry Collins, and a worse passer rating than Chris Simms. The Giants are in good position right now, but three of their last four are on the road, where they're 1-3 — with the win at San Francisco.

8. Chicago Bears [7] — Their 127 points allowed is the NFC's lowest by over 50% (Carolina, 194), and the best in the division by nearly double (Detroit, 241). Chicago's tough closing schedule will probably break its winning streak, but if the Bears run the table and face Indianapolis in the Super Bowl, they will lose by four touchdowns.

9. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Jim Nantz had perhaps the worst line I've heard all season, about running back Larry Johnson: "Is this layering or Larry-ing?" That's heinous. Unless they drop both of their upcoming NFC East road games, or the Chargers lose to Miami, the Chiefs' Week 16 matchup against San Diego will probably be the most important game for the rest of the season. If the Chargers win, Kansas City's playing for pride.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — Eight consecutive games with at least 20 points. They have a chance to make a statement against Indianapolis, but I think their 20-point streak will come to an end, and Indy's won't.

11. Dallas Cowboys [6] — Lost two in a row and haven't beaten a winning team since Week 6. In the first six games of the season, Drew Bledsoe threw for 1,663 yards, with a 100.4 passer rating and a +7 TD/INT differential. In the six games since, he has 1,040 yards, with a 70.4 passer rating and a -1 TD/INT differential. Bledsoe always starts strong and finishes weak. Expect the Cowboys to follow the same pattern this season, missing the playoffs after a 7-3 start.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [13] — Won on the road and put themselves in the driver's seat for the NFC's top wildcard — if not the NFC South title — but when you're +4 in turnovers, you're supposed to win by more than a touchdown. Good teams can get four interceptions, but great teams — like the Seahawks — turn those picks into points.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers [10] — Three cheers for my CBS station for showing their game against Cincinnati instead of a stinker involving a semi-local team. Is it possible, though, to go through a Pittsburgh broadcast without hearing the phrase, "The terrible towels are out?" The Steelers got a bad break early when officials ruled a Bengals fumble down by contact.

14. Minnesota Vikings [14] — Definitely a playoff contender, but they need a collapse from one of the NFC South contenders, because they have head-to-head losses against all three. I think the Falcons will give them that collapse, the Cowboys will fade, and the Vikings will get the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs.

15. New England Patriots [16] — Some key players are coming back, and that could make the Patriots a force to be reckoned with. It is cause for concern, though, that the offense, which averaged 27.3 points per game last year, hasn't scored 27 or more since Week 5, including consecutive weeks under 20 against below-average defenses.

16. Atlanta Falcons [15] — Michael Vick was sacked five times against Carolina, returning him to the upper echelon of the league's most-sacked. The defense has the opposite problem, not finding the quarterback. After recording 17 sacks in the first four games, the Falcons have just 13 sacks in the eight games since, going 4-4 in that stretch. They average 3.7 sacks per game in victories, and 0.8 in losses. Atlanta looked like a contender at the beginning of the season, but it's fading fast.

17. Washington Redskins [18] — Cornelius Griffin's return has had a huge impact on the defense, and offense is once again the weak link. Not to mince words, Mark Brunell has been terrible since teams started covering Santana Moss. Kicker John Hall has struggled since his return from the injured list, and promising rookie Nick Novak, now with Arizona, may have been the wrong kicker to release.

18. Philadelphia Eagles [17] — There's a substantial space between 17th and 18th right now, and I'm not happy keeping the Eagles so high after their embarrassing loss on Monday night. Greg Lewis looked awfully lazy (and lazily awful), and normally-reliable tight end L.J. Smith had the worst game I've ever seen from him.

19. Oakland Raiders [19] — No penalties on Sunday night, dropping them behind Baltimore for the season. Executed their defensive gameplan, holding LaDainian Tomlinson to 86 rushing yards and a 3.4 average — with no touchdowns — but got beaten by Brees in the passing game. San Diego's pass rush had a great game, and the Raiders never really found a rhythm on offense.

20. Miami Dolphins [23] — Passed 65 times on Sunday, overcoming 13 penalties and some early defensive breakdowns. Wide receiver Chris Chambers caught all 65 passes.

21. Cleveland Browns [22] — The Charlie Frye era is off to a good start, but losing Braylon Edwards to a torn ACL is a major blow.

22. Buffalo Bills [21] — Up 21-0, and still leading 23-3 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, they couldn't hold on against a division rival. The game was Buffalo's closest road loss this season, and their highest point total on the road. The Bills are 29th in total offense this year.

23. St. Louis Rams [20] — Word is that Washington's Gregg Williams, former head coach of the Buffalo Bills, is the front-runner to replace Mike Martz in '06. I like what interim coach Joe Vitt has done, though, and I think he deserves a legitimate chance at getting the job full-time.

24. Baltimore Ravens [25] — Shannon Sharpe on Baltimore's last-minute win over Houston: "In the battle for Reggie Bush, the Ravens obviously do not feel they need him." Blame the defense, Ravens fans. The offense tried hard to give this one away.

25. Arizona Cardinals [27] — Now have won two of their last three. And their last six. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are probably the best receiving tandem in the NFC, but the team has serious problems everywhere else.

26. New Orleans Saints [28] — The team's unsettled situation makes me wonder whether it's worth replacing Jim Haslett this offseason, or keeping him around for one more year so that a new coach can start in 2007 with a level playing field. You have to figure, too, that the Saints will have trouble attracting the top coaching candidates this offseason.

27. Green Bay Packers [24] — He's not the only problem, but Brett Favre leads the NFL in turnovers (26). The Packers are tied for second in fewest sacks allowed, but Favre fumbles every other time he gets hit (16 sacks, 8 fumbles), and he easily leads the league in interceptions. He took a serious beating against Chicago, and although he plays hurt, Favre has been ineffective in the past when he's playing in pain. I really like Favre, but it's reasonable to question at this point whether he is becoming a liability for the Packers.

28. Detroit Lions [26] — I always root for interim head coaches, and meek-looking, second-chance Dick Jauron is easy to like. That said, I don't see him pulling the Lions out of their hole, and I won't be surprised if he goes 0-5.

29. Tennessee Titans [29] — Have held an opponent under 20 points only once all season, against Baltimore in Week 2. Allowed over 30 in half their games. Jeff Fisher must be going nuts trying to stem the tide.

30. San Francisco 49ers [30] — Could easily be 32nd. Alex Smith, in his three starts, has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdowns.

31. Houston Texans [31] — Second last-minute loss in two weeks. Reggie Bush is such a rare talent that you don't complain about drafting him number one, but the Texans have Domanick Davis, and I wouldn't be surprised if they trade the top pick in the draft for a package of lower picks. Assuming Houston does get the top pick, that is. There are some really bad teams standing in their way the next four weeks.

32. New York Jets [32] — The score doesn't really reflect the extent to which they were dominated by the Patriots. New England had a 16-minute lead in time of possession, twice as many first downs, more than twice as many yards from scrimmage, and nearly double Brooks Bollinger's completion percentage. I don't think Curtis Martin is going to make it to 1,000 yards this season.