Oregon Could Be Odd “Duck” Out of BCS

Well, it's come down to this. One final weekend of college football and then it's time to gear up for the ever-controversial bowl season. What makes it most controversial — in the eyes of this reporter — is not the snubs inevitably made by the Bowl Championship System, but the marginal teams that get invited to bowls. That's not the topic of discussion today, but rather what happens to the BCS if either Texas or USC lose Saturday?

Of course, the obvious ideal for determining the eight teams that will play in the four BCS bowls (Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and Rose) is to have both Southern Cal defeat UCLA and Texas win the Big 12 championship game over Colorado. Depending on what happens in the other two major conference title games (ACC and SEC), that would only create controversy for one or two of the at-large selections.

Say both Virginia Tech and LSU prevail in winning their respective conferences, along with Texas. USC already has been given a BCS spot as well as Penn State and West Virginia. That's six of the eight spots, of which five are the current top five teams in the BCS rankings (West Virginia is ranked No. 11). No. 6 is Ohio State and number seven is Oregon. Sounds pretty simple, huh? Hold your horses, partner. Ever heard of Notre Dame?

Here's where the controversy would lie. The fighting Irish currently are the eighth-ranked team in the BCS, which really doesn't mean a whole lot at this time. What does matter, though, is that they're an independent school. Why does that matter? Because the two schools ahead of them are in conferences that already have a representative in the BCS. Everyone knows Notre Dame is essentially "America's Team" when it comes to college football and they travel well. Bottom line: potentially bigger gate receipts and a larger share in the TV ratings.

However, the bigger question is which school between Oregon and Ohio State gets the "thanks for playing, here's a consolation prize" call when Notre Dame gets the BCS invite? How about the Buckeyes? Sure, they have two losses, but they were co-champs of the Big 10 and lost to Penn State only by a touchdown. Plus, they beat Michigan, the team responsible for the Nittany Lions' only loss. Then there's Oregon. Sure, they got roasted by Southern Cal, but that was in September and accounted for their only loss. This decision, again, will come down to who has the bigger national appeal and travels the best. Hands down, Ohio State has the edge over Oregon.

But now what if one or more of the conference championships is won by the underdog, or if UCLA upsets USC? That would open up a whole new can of worms. The lowest BCS-ranked team in a league title game is Virginia Tech at No. 5. They play unrated Florida State. If the Seminoles win, they would get an automatic BCS berth with a paltry 8-4 record. How far down would that knock the Hokies with a bunch of idle teams below them? They're currently less than a point ahead of Oregon in the standings, so they could conceivably fall all the way to seventh, just ahead of Notre Dame. Now where would that leave the Ducks?

An even messier situation would be if Colorado happened to knock off Texas. Colorado, like Florida State, is not ranked in the BCS. Not only would the Buffs take away a spot from one of the top-eight teams, but they would entirely disrupt the Rose Bowl. Right now, Texas and USC are pretty much packing their bags for Pasadena, but who would fill in if one of them should lose Saturday, especially the Longhorns? Penn State would be the obvious choice to play for the title, given their relatively solid hold on third place in the BCS (more than 0.05 points ahead of LSU). But, a big win by the Tigers over BCS No. 13 Georgia in the SEC title game could vault them ahead of idle Penn State. So, how about LSU and USC in the Rose Bowl?

Speaking of USC, what if they lost to cross-town rival UCLA on Saturday? Probably the same scenario as described above would result — Penn State against Texas for the national championship — unless, of course LSU smokes Georgia. Then it could be the Tigers and Longhorns in Pasadena. Now, if both USC and Texas lose, how far would either of them drop? UCLA is No. 12 in the BCS ratings right now, which would look better for USC than it would for Texas if they lost to unranked Colorado, but it's unlikely that either would fall out of the top eight.

In the event of a double loss by the top two teams, the Rose Bowl would most likely pit Penn State against LSU — which brings us back to Oregon. If the Trojans end up taking a BCS game that is not the national title game, it's doubtful the selection committee would favor two Pac-10 teams in BCS games, particularly with the previously discussed Notre Dame/Ohio State factors. So, bye-bye Duckies, hello Irish.

Of course, most of this can be avoided if everyone who needs to take care of business on Saturday does so. If USC, Texas, LSU, and Virginia Tech all win, then the only question that will remain to be answered is what to do with Oregon? Maybe there won't be controversy as far as the national title is concerned, but there probably will be plenty at the bottom of the heap and, once again, the Pac-10 will get the short end of the stick.