Bluebook Notes #10: BCS Top 10

Since we've reached our 10th edition of Bluebook Notes, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the top 10 teams in the BCS and see if they truly deserve their ranking.

No. 1 USC (No Brainer) — I don't think anyone will debate me on this one. USC has had their shaky moments against Arizona State, Oregon, and Fresno State, but they have looked unstoppable when they are on their game. They have gone undefeated this season and should be playing for the National Championship next month.

No. 2 Texas (No Brainer) — Like Southern Cal, Texas has had some hiccups, but those are to be expected in a 12-game season. Texas has also gone undefeated, and looked pretty well doing it. Their defense has played well, and Vince Young is the best quarterback in America. They should also be in Pasadena come January.

No. 3 Penn State (Nailed It) — I know most people want to see Texas against USC for the title. However, if Texas slips up against Colorado on Saturday, I won't be complaining. Penn State has had a magnificent season, and were it not for a fourth-quarter collapse against Michigan, we would have a major BCS snafu on our hands. Penn State is arguably the best one-loss team in the country and deserves a shot at the title. This just furthers the case for a playoff system.

No. 4 LSU (O-VER-RATED) — I really wish I could call these guys contenders, but they just haven't shown me enough to deserve their ranking. Don't get me wrong, LSU is a fantastic team, but barely beating a depleted Alabama team, and losing to Tennessee just doesn't cut it. Their early-season comeback victory against Arizona State has also grown less impressive over time, as well.

No. 5 Virginia Tech (Unfairly Penalized) — The Hokies are getting screwed. Virginia Tech has dominated their opponents this year, and besides one bad night in Blacksburg against Miami, they could put up a case as being a worthy candidate to go to the Rose Bowl. This is yet another team that is getting shafted because of when they lost. They deserve a chance at redemption, but with the way the BCS is setup, they wont have that opportunity.

No. 6 Ohio State (Got it Right) — Even though the Buckeyes have two losses, I still say that they may have the best chance of beating USC this year. They have the best corps of linebackers in the country, and their speed in the secondary would give them an excellent chance of containing Matt Leinart and Co. Of course, they won't get that chance, but they should be playing in a BCS bowl. The Buckeyes outplayed Texas, and their only sound defeat was a seven-point loss to Penn State in Happy Valley. This would be another team that could run the table in a playoff.

No. 7 Oregon (Pretender) — The Ducks are a quality team. I think Mike Bellotti should be a candidate for Coach of the Year because he has worked no less than a miracle in Eugene. However, they are not the seventh best team in the country. The main reason this is the case is because of Kellen Clemens. His injury has forced the Ducks to go with a platoon of Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf (does that name sound familiar?). Neither of those guys is as good as Clemens was, and the Ducks squeaked past Cal and Washington State. They have played well on defense (Justin Phinesee has been spectacular), but they just haven't shown me enough to merit their ranking.

No. 8 Notre Dame (No BCS Bias) — Notre Dame deserves their ranking. I'll say it again — Notre Dame deserves their ranking. I think their most impressive outing came in their close loss against USC. Charlie Weis and his team executed their game plan perfectly and came within inches of defeating the number one team in the country. They have consistently played well and with two exceptions (Michigan State and Stanford), beaten up on every team in which they were favored. Notre Dame would give any of the teams above them all they could handle in a playoff system.

No. 9 Miami (Underrated) — Even though their loss to Florida State looks worse with every passing week, the Hurricanes are still one of the best teams in the country. Fortunately or unfortunately, they play in a conference where it is almost impossible for any team to go undefeated. Even with their two losses, I would pick Miami to beat every team above them besides the top three at a neutral site. The Hurricanes are that good.

No. 10 Auburn (Getting the Shaft) — Right now, the Auburn Tigers are the best team in the SEC. They already beat Georgia who is playing in the SEC Championship, and if they had made some field goals against LSU, they would have gone undefeated in their conference. Al Borges has done a remarkable job getting Auburn's offense in gear, and their defense has continued to play well when needed. I would love to see these guys in a BCS bowl, but I don't think it is going to happen.

The HeisDAQ

The race for the Heisman Trophy fluctuates week by week. The HeisDAQ will let you know whose Heisman "stock" is rising and falling. Now that the race is winding down, I will highlight the five guys with the best chances of taking home the hardware.

1) Reggie Bush, RB/KR/PR USC (strong buy) — After Reggie's historic night against Fresno State, the Heisman is just about his. With the deadline for submitting votes coming up, many people have already sent in their ballots with Reggie's name at the top.

2) Vince Young, QB Texas (hold) — V.Y.'s uninspiring performance against Texas A&M will probably cost him the trophy. He still has one last chance to impress against Colorado, but I just don't think he can do enough to win.

3) Matt Leinart, QB USC (hold) — Matt Leinart is getting penalized for winning the Heisman last year. I told you this would happen in my Heisman preview, and although he had an unreal year, it just wasn't enough.

4) Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame (hold) — Quinn racked up the yards against Stanford, but his two first-half interceptions probably put the final nail in the coffin for his Heisman hopes. Quinn has had a phenomenal year, and even though he's out in 2005, if he stays in school, he's the preseason favorite for next year.

5) Drew Olson, QB UCLA (super-speculative buy) — Olson won't win the Heisman, but he may creep up towards the top three if UCLA can beat USC. He has put up unbelievable numbers, but his relative obscurity was just too much to overcome. I'm sure the trophy is out of reach, but with a win on Saturday, he has to be invited to the Athletic Club.

Games to Watch/Picks to Click

Season Record: 15-10 ATS; Last Week: 3-0 ATS

UCLA (+21) @ USC

This is the game that everyone in Southern California has been waiting for. USC is the huge favorite, and they are just about everyone's pick to win the game. However, there are plenty of reasons why UCLA could steal this game from the Trojans. USC's special teams have been shaky at best, and UCLA has the best return man in the country in Maurice Drew. Also, the Bruins will have Justin London, the oft-injured senior linebacker in the game after a prolonged absence. If the Bruins weren't so mismatched on the defensive line, I think they would pull off the upset. I think the Trojans will establish the run, and pound out a close victory.

Three-Pete 42, Drews 38

Texas @ Colorado (+27½)

Colorado is a team that I just haven't been able to figure out. They seemed to have peaked a little too early this year, but they can still be dangerous. Their defense has been tough against the run, which should help against the Longhorns. I see Texas winning this game handily, but just slightly less than the 28 points needed to cover the spread.

Mack's Trucks 34, Will Barnett Be Back? 10

Georgia (+2) @ LSU

The SEC Championship Game should be very entertaining and fun to watch. This game is important for both teams and with BCS bowls on the line, the drama and intensity will be high. I really think Georgia will win this game because of the senior leadership of D.J. Shockley. Shockley is back from the injury that sidelined him for the Florida game and will be the difference-maker. Georgia's defense has also been solid, and will keep LSU high-powered offense from scoring just enough to eek out the win.

Shockley & Blue 27, JaMarcus & Skyler 24

Mailbag

This week's e-mail comes from Ron Easterly in Kilauea, Hawaii:

Avery,
Yes, you're definitely off your rocker, but don't you worry, you have plenty of company. I'm often amazed at the level of stupidity with the media and the talking heads of the NCAA football world. The Heisman Trophy race is a great example of this along with your recent column. Just give that piece of junk trophy to Jason White every year. They rarely get it right and when they do it's seems to be an accident. What are you idiots watching? What more does a guy need to do? Vince Young will win it this year, because it was decided after the Arkansas slaying that Matt Leinart (35-1) has "too many weapons." How ridiculous is that?

Media people that use stats to form their opinions get absolutely no respect from me. If you're a stat head then the best quarterback plays for Texas Tech every year. USC would have two loses if Drew Olson were the starting quarterback. Comparing Matt Leinart (35-1) to Drew Olson is laughable. I'm not even going to waste my time. Matt Leinart has had a near perfect season. The pressure he's endured this year no other quarterback not named Brady or Manning can relate with. When USC shows up it's an event and not just another game. I seriously doubt that Notre Dame pulls out the green jerseys and throws an all night pep rally for the Drew Olson led UCLA Bruins coming to town.

Matt Leinart is the best quarterback I've ever seen and I've been watching college football for 18 seasons now. He'll outplay Young and Olson in the coming weeks, but that's because he has "too much talent around him." Whatever! USC does have talent everywhere but so do all the other traditional powers. USC will miss Leinart next year, just like Miami has missed Ken Dorsey. Taking advantage of the talent you have is tough to do with a quarterback that's prone to make bad decisions (Brock Berlin). To me, Matt Leinart is a Ken Dorsey with an NFL caliber arm. Both rarely made the wrong read and most importantly...they always WON. Maybe you should cover college bowling.

College bowling. Now there's an idea, I never thought of that. Ron, I think if you look at my article again, you will see that I talked about much more than just stats. I've watched every game that both Leinart and Olson have played this season (actually, all of Olson games in his career) and Olson has the edge in my book. Paul Molina from Minneapolis sums up my opinion in a couple of sentences.

Drew Olson deserves to be in NYC for the Heisman presentation. Hopefully, his tremendous stats will be enough to convince voters that he is no fraud. The guy can just flat-out play, but more importantly, there is not a QB in America with more guts and determination. Thanks for spreading the word about the best QB in Los Angeles.

Do you think that I'm "off my rocker," or did I hit the proverbial "nail on the head?" Let me know! Send an e-mail to [email protected] and include your name and hometown. I'll do my best to include it in the next week's column.