40 MLB Offseason Moves That Make Sense

UPDATED

Major League Baseball's Hot Stove League kicked off recently with the general manager meetings in California and, as suspected, big talk about trades that may or may not occur. And, as always, there was the idle banter about the year's thin free agent class that dominated the media's interest while the yearly debates over the designated hitter rule, instant replay, and the proposed change in date for the league's amateur draft were all put on hold until December's meetings in Dallas.

While fandom certainly has some interest in possible changes in rules for America's Favorite Pastime, it is no surprise that the media force feeds the public the rumors de jour on anything involving player movement, since this most directly alters one's perception of his or her team of choice relative to their chances for championship glory in 2006.

In homage to this reality, it would be remiss of myself (and Sports Central on the whole) to not put forth some iteration of our own predictions relating to any change of address forms that some notable players may or may not be filling out come mid-winter. This article serves as such a vehicle, as it takes a look at the 40 most interesting possibilities relating to player movement that my crystal ball divines for the 2005-2006 offseason transition.

Players on the Move

(2005 team in parenthesis)

Nomar Garciaparra (Cubs) — No-mah and his legendary footballer wife, Mia Hamm, seemed destined for sunny California in 2006. The Dodgers, by all indications, are quite intrigued with the possibility of Nomar's acceptance of manning the hot corner for any potential suitor, and his bat would fit nicely in the hitting-challenged Los Angeles lineup. It is a safe bet that Garciaparra will not be back in the Windy City regardless of where he winds up, but L.A. is where the smart money lies.

Paul Konerko (White Sox) — While most pundits continue to insist that Konerko will wind up back on the South Side, I can't see Pauly passing up the huge pile of dollars that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will throw his way. This will be a huge loss for the defending World Champs, so it may not be a slam dunk move as Kenny Williams and Co. may bend over backwards to retain Konerko's bat ... however, in the end, the ever-expanding Angels payroll should trump any offer the ChiSox make.

Update: Human nature may not be as cut-and-dried as we all thought. Paully nixed all others by announcing his desire to return to the ChiSox relatively early on in what would certainly have grown into an ugly bidding war. While not well-played in terms of leverage, you've got to hand it to Konerko for being true to his heart ... oh, and five years, $6 mil isn't so bad, either.

Lyle Overbay (Brewers) — This move is tied closely to Konerko's ultimate decision, but if Paul does indeed bolt to greener pastures (and a greener wallet), Chicago would be fools not to jump headlong into the bidding for Milwaukee's all-star first baseman. With a very deep farm system, the White Sox would have no problem meeting the Brew Crew's demands, especially considering the inevitability of a move involving Lyle with superstar-in-waiting Prince Fielder chomping at the bit for a full-time job. As an aside to this particular move, expect maligned lefty reliever Damaso Marte to be shipped to Wisconsin along with a prospect or two from the Sox system.

Update: Toronto continued their offseason overhaul by trading some prospects for Overbay. Obviously, the re-signing of Konerko left the ChiSox out of this equation.

Alfonso Soriano (Rangers) — While Soriano made it past the '05 trade deadline, don't expect to see him donning the Ranger colors come next April. As was the case last year, Soriano appears to be heading to the New York Mets in a deal that may involve a high-paid outfielder named either [Mike] Cameron or [Cliff] Floyd. This move may be contingent on an agreed change in position for Soriano (likely to the outfield), but don't be surprised if they keep Alfonso at second and try moving Kaz Matsui into the oversized Shea outfield.

Update: Another correct call on the trade, but a loser relative to the destination. Soriano will be a solid addition to a Washington Nationals team that could be a very nice sleeper pick for the NL wild card in '06.

A.J. Burnett (Marlins) — Many outlets are beginning to champion Toronto as a possible landing site for one of the few legit big-time free agent players, but my sources (comprised mostly of various voices inside my own head) see Burnett in an Oriole uniform come the onset of the '06 season. With many suitors, money should be the deciding factor here and Baltimore has shown a recklessness in spending that just can't be overlooked. If an Oriole deal doesn't work out, though, Burnett will indeed be in Toronto for the '06 season.

Update: This is a recording ... Blue Jays overpay for one of the few highly-regarded free agent arms on the market. Give me half credit on this one ... an Oriole deal didn't work out and A.J. wound up north of the border.

Billy Wagner (Phillies) — Wagner's demands are clear — $10 million a season for no less than three years. Philadelphia has no intention of meeting these demands and seems comfortable with the prospect of picking up a less-expensive free agent closer for the ninth inning next season, a frightening thought to be sure if you are a Philly backer, especially considering the reality that such players are few and far between in this year's market. One team's loss is another team's gain, though, and the Mets have made no secret of their desire to have Wagner on board. Look for Wagner to be closing games out in New York next season in a relatively typical active offseason for Omar Minaya and his Mets.

Update: Attention B.J. Ryan, you've actually just signed the second most lucrative relief pitcher contract in history thanks to Mr. Wagner and the New York Mets. Billy Wagner has indeed signed with the Mets for an unfathomably large bag of cash.

Manny Ramirez (Red Sox) — As unbelievable as it may seem, the Red Sox and Ramirez are destined to part ways, at least in my estimation. Cleveland is a good landing spot for Ramirez. He knows the area, will be an instant fan favorite, and won't have to adjust to any overbearing superstar that may currently be on the roster. While the terms of a trade relative to what the BoSox will demand are unclear, it seems Cleveland has enough arms and young bats to work out those details to Boston's liking and the Indians certainly have some money to play with, unlike the Mets and Angels, who may well be maxed out financially sooner rather than later.

Jeremy Burnitz (Cubs) — Bernie had a solid year in Chicago with both the bat and the glove and with the impending loss of Ramirez, he would be a relatively inexpensive stop gap power solution in the Red Sox outfield. He can play any of the three outfield spots effectively and his easygoing attitude would be a nice fit in the Boston clubhouse. St. Louis may enter the bidding for Jeremy's services, which may well drive the Red Sox off, but my assumption is for the Cards to look elsewhere for Larry Walker's replacement, leaving the Sox as Jeremy's most serious suitor.

Mike Piazza (Mets) — This may be a stretch, and I'm sure all the loyal readers will tell me just that in their feedback, but I see Piazza setting up camp in Beantown next season. Now if some team like the Angels or Tigers throw mad money at Mike, Boston certainly would back down, but if Manny does indeed get traded, Piazza makes good sense if they can get him for fair market value. He can spell an overused Jason Varitek behind the dish, get some time in at first, and play some at DH (assuming Boston's new GM will be comfortable with the worst fielding percentage in baseball). Granted, there are a lot of "ifs" associated to such a move, but don't be surprised if and when this one comes across the AP ticker.

Rafael Furcal (Braves) — Let's see ... capable leadoff man, nice pop, great glove ... perfect fit for the Chicago Cubs, who have openly coveted Furcal's services. I don't see any organization outbidding Chicago once the bidding does begin in earnest and Furcal would be well worth the investment to the Cubbies who are desperate for consistency high up in their order and a solid glove-man up the middle.

Update: I was about 12 hours from hitting this one on the head ... all indications had Furcal heading to the Northsiders until an 11th hour plea came from the Dodger camp to hear them out. Money talks, and Rafael made himself a killing to don Dodger blue.

B.J. Ryan (Orioles) — Ryan will be in New York as a Met if Wagner doesn't wind up there, but since we've already decided he will, B.J.'s final destination should be elsewhere. If Hoffman winds up calling San Diego's bluff and does leave town, look for Ryan to surface in Southern California as a Padre. But if the status quo prevails for the Padres (which is exactly what will happen, if you ask me), look for teams like Arizona, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Philadelphia to put the full court press on Ryan. My gut tells me that Ryan ends up in Cleveland to replace Bob Wickman, but Atlanta would be a great fit, too.

Update: Ryan has reportedly accepted an offer from Toronto that will make him the highest-paid relief pitcher ever ... a suspect decision to say the least for the young and relatively unproven lefty.

Kyle Farnsworth (Braves) — "The Farns," as he was nicknamed by one-time Chicago Cub play-by-play man Chip Carey, seemed to find himself under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone (now there's a recurring storyline for major league pitchers). With Mazzone bolting to Baltimore, expect Kyle to follow suit. His stuff is as good as you get and if he made as solid a connection with Mazzone as his late season results indicated, Farnsworth would be committing professional suicide if he left Leo now.

Update: I must admit, this one came as a surprise. Farnsworth would rather hook on with the Yanks as a middle-man than continue his development as a closer. Financially, the deal makes sense, but from a developmental standpoint, this is a definate step backwards for the young, wild-armed pitcher.

Geoff Jenkins (Brewers) — Milwaukee has made no secret their desire to trade the streaky-hitting outfielder. Conventional wisdom has the Brewers dealing Jenkins to the AL, where his powerful left-handed bat can't cause them any turmoil or regret ... but the deal that makes the most sense would send Geoff to a divisional foe, namely the Houston Astros. Houston needs a big bat desperately, but also has to be mindful of their salary situation with the possibility of both Roger Clemens and Jeff Bagwell sticking around another season so they cannot spend heavily on the likes of Jacque Jones or Brian Giles. Jenkins would be a good fit as he sports a solid glove and a big lefty stick that would fit nicely into the order between Lance Berkman and Jason Lane.

Bengie Molina (Angels) — With the New York Mets showing interest in most every free agent on the market, it is difficult to discern which ones they are serious about acquiring. All indications point to Molina as being a legit target for the Mets, but don't be surprised to see his name surface in Houston, especially if Clemens does indeed announce his retirement before the end of the calendar year. With Brad Ausmus likely to either retire or move west to San Diego, Houston will be desperate for a catcher to handle their talented pitching staff. If the Astros do find some money, most likely in the form of a Rocket departure, Molina makes good sense. If Houston isn't in the mix, however, Molina will be a Met.

Carlos Delgado (Marlins) — Surprisingly enough, the Marlins are looking to trade their highly-paid, power-hitting free agent acquisition from last year's offseason. Few teams can fit his salary into their budget and it is a safe bet that Florida will not trade Carlos to a divisional foe like the Mets, who (surprise, surprise) have shown a strong interest. This leaves Baltimore, who coveted Delgado last winter, and Seattle, who seem willing to pay anything for power hitters these days, as the major players. The Mariners make good sense, and the deal involving Delgado may wind up being a reality.

Update: Carlos Delgado will apparently be handling the first base duties for the Mets this season, as the Marlins and Mets completed a trade ... not good news for the rest of the NL East.

Javier Vazquez (Diamondbacks) — This up-and-down starting pitcher has expressed an interest in being dealt back to the East Coast, and it is a likely scenario. Look for Vazquez to wind up in either Baltimore or Toronto, wherever A.J. Burnett doesn't go.

Brian Giles (Padres) — Giles is another one of the very few big-ticket free agent commodities that will be worth the investment. While Houston is a possibility (albeit unlikely with the financial commitments the Astros have to wait out), it is more likely that Giles will wind up in either St. Louis or Chicago with the Cubs. The Cardinals have never been a team that enjoys a good bidding war, so the Cubbies will likely win any such war, filling another big need with a quality left-handed bat.

Update: Choosing to stay in comfy San Diego, Giles defied popular opinion and eschewed a shot at a more lucrative contract by waiting the market out a bit.

Jacque Jones (Twins) — It is pretty much a certainty that Giles is out in San Diego, which means they will be in the market for his replacement. Jones is as good a replacement as there is and will be a solid fit in the spacious outfield of Petco Park. Assuming the inevitability of the Giles move, you can pencil Jacque Jones in as a Padre come 2006 Opening Day.

Ramon Hernandez (Padres) — With Piazza undoubtedly leaving town and the aforementioned Bengie Molina-to-Houston idea, Ramon Hernandez is left as the most available catching hand on the market. The Mets, therefore, will pay whatever has to be paid to enlist his services.

Update: The Marlin firesale really threw a monkey wrench in this call ... Paul LoDuca wound up in New York even after offers were on the table from the Mets for both Ramon and Benji Molina. Thusly, Martinez winds up catching in Baltimore.

Alex Gonzalez (Marlins) — Not to be confused with the other Alex Gonzalez (you know, the one that cost the Cubs a World Series berth), the ex-Marlin shortstop is as good a "get" as there is on the market. He won't demand the money of a Furcal and he has every bit as good a glove and only a slightly less effective bat, assuming his injury woes are behind him. Look for the slick-fielder to wind up replacing Rafael in Atlanta for much less money.

Preston Wilson (Nationals) — Wilson has some detractors, but he is a productive bat man and a solid fielder. The Detroit Tigers will miss out on many of the year's top free agents because they have such an unsettled management situation, but Wilson will be one they get and his bat will be a great addition to the Tiger lineup.

Sammy Sosa (Orioles) — From the "Why do we even still care?" department comes Slammin' (or is that "Slimmin'") Sammy. Sosa is a liability with the glove and the bat, but brings instant name recognition to a team willing to swallow overblown sense of self. Enter the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Match made in heaven, as Sammy will get to play every day and blast his boom box without the pesky concerns of his 150-plus strikeouts ruining a contender's chances.

Matt Morris (Cardinals) — Morris has been a stand-up pro for the Cardinals for several years and St. Louis will not like seeing him leave, but his reputation is not worth the money he will demand on the open market, especially for a team like the Cards who are yearly contenders. Look for Morris to wind up being the big acquisition for a mid-market club like Detroit, Cleveland, or Seattle. One other possibility, though much less likely, is for the Houston Astros to make a play for Morris if Roger Clemens announces his retirement sooner rather than later. For the sake of this article, let's put Morris in Detroit.

Update: I certainly didn't see the San Francisco Giants as a possibility for Morris at all, especially for the length and terms of the contract he accepted. One thing I will add here is if the Giants don't show marked improvement early, this surely will mean the end of the Jason Schmidt era by the trade deadline.

Kevin Millwood (Indians) — The AL's ERA leader wants a longer deal, and the Indians aren't budging. Cleveland doesn't want to lose Millwood, but may make a play early in free agency for Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver, or Burnett, which would make Millwood's camp start looking elsewhere. The St. Louis Cardinals will be in the market for a solid veteran replacement for Morris, and Millwood makes great sense here.

Jeff Weaver (Dodgers) — Speaking of Mr. Weaver ... though his results have mostly been less reliable than tech stocks, Jeff should demand a handsome salary as a starter with good stuff and some experience in a market relatively bereft of such types. Cleveland will make a play for Weaver and should land him as Millwood's replacement unless Anaheim gets into the bidding and is willing to overpay.

Kevin Millar (Red Sox) — All indications have Millar going to the Twins for 2006. I can't argue with that — he's a good, cheap bat for a team that likes good, cheap bats. The Tigers may also slide into the bidding for Millar, but only if they offer a second year on a deal.

Kenny Rogers (Rangers) — The Gambler pretty much punched his ticket out of town by waylaying that cameraman right around all-star time last season. The crafty, aging left-hander still has something to give, but only in the right situation. Much of the general media has Rogers slated for the L.A. rotation, and I don't disagree, but I think he's more apt to be in the Angels top five than Dodger blue. The Angels of Anaheim will want to make a splash somewhere, and with some of the other moves going down, adding a solid fifth arm makes good sense for the organization.

Update: Another big surprise ... the Indians threw a boatload of money at Rogers and he accepted. Can't predict ignorance, which seems to be the motivation behind this move.

Bob Wickman (Indians) — With Kyle Farnsworth following pitching coach Mazzone to Baltimore, Atlanta will be in the market for a proven closer to anchor their pen. Enter Bob Wickman, who likely will be replaced by the younger B.J. Ryan in Cleveland. The Braves are a good landing spot for this vet, unless Atlanta decides Danny Kolb is the answer (unlikely), in which case Wickman may wind up in one of the other closer-desperate markets like Philly or Boston.

Juan Encarnacion (Marlins) — Encarnacion is a decent bat and an exceptional outfielder. St. Louis is a solid organization with a great eye for talent. They see Encarnacion, you can be sure of that, and he makes a lot of sense as Larry Walker's replacement in right field. If the Cards to snatch him up, watch for Juan to emerge in Washington's outfield, but my money is still going on a deal with the Cardinals.

Brad Ausmus (Astros) — One more in a long litany of moves more or less directly tied to the decision of Roger Clemens. If Clemens opts to retire, Ausmus is as sure to move to San Diego as the sun is to rise. Otherwise, it's 50/25/25 between staying in Houston, retiring, or becoming a Padre. Since I'm banking on the Rocket to retire, I see long surfing weekends for Ausmus in beautiful San Diego.

Update: Wow. Of all my other oversights, this is the most surprising. Roger is out (at least for now), and the 'Stros still insist on keeping the aging, offensively-challenged Ausmus on board. For a team that will be defending an NL pennant, they don't seem too concerned with upgrading a shoddy offense by replacing the most egregious weak spots in the lineup.

Staying Put

Johnny Damon (Red Sox) — If I wasn't so convinced that Man-Ram was leaving town, this wouldn't be such a slam dunk. The Sox would be hung out to dry by their passionate fan base if they lost them both, and, as of writing, rumors are swirling that Damon has already been offered a fine deal to stay by the Red Sox brass.

Jarrod Washburn (Angels) —Washburn isn't as big a name as there is out there, but he is a solid pitcher and could be on the verge of erupting onto the scene as a big-time ace. The Angels will hold on to the lefty more as a fall-back option than a priority get, but the move ultimately will work in their favor.

Hideki Matsui (Yankees) — Another that fits the "slam dunk" category, Matsui is going nowhere. Team Yankee is far too conscious of their international appeal to let one of a very small handful of marketable Asian players walk. It may cost them, but Hideki's a Yankee for life.

Update: After this article was written, Matsui was signed to a multi-year deal with the Yankees.

Esteban Loaiza (Nationals) — A solid contributor as a middle of the rotation guy, Loaiza earned an extended stay in the Nation's Capitol. The market may overpay for Esteban to move elsewhere, but he is very cognizant of the struggles he had dealing with New York's media, so don't expect Loaiza to be in too large a hurry to risk making another bad decision anytime soon.

Update: Loaiza, having not received a tangible offer from the Nats, signed a multi-year deal with the Oakland Athletics.

Trevor Hoffman (Padres) — This isn't as big a slam-dunk as you would think ... in fact, at the time of this article's writing, the airwaves are abuzz with talk between Hoffman's camp and the New York Mets. Alas, this just doesn't make much sense unless the Mets scrap their head-over-heals infatuation with Billy Wagner, so it plays much better as a hard-ball tactic meant to send a message of defiance to a San Diego front office that may be taking Hoffman for granted. Ultimately, sanity will prevail and Trevor Hoffman will remain right where he belongs.

Update: Okay, got another one ... though there was some tentative moments, Trevor stays right where he belongs.

Todd Jones (Marlins) — Not every Marlin is destined for new scenery in '06. The veteran closer with substandard stuff but incredible control certainly pitched well enough to deserve a longer tenure in Florida. With some key losses for the Marlins, the front office will pay to keep Jones in town.

Update: Chalk another one up to the firesale that I didn't fully understand the depth of in Florida. Jones winds up getting fat bank from the Indians ... which seems odd, since Wickman is a better option and wouldn't have cost much more.

Mark Grudzielanek (Cardinals) — Proving to be a very underrated commodity, Grudzy flashed a solid glove in '05 and a consistent enough bat to merit a second go-round in St. Louis.

Reggie Sanders (Cardinals) — With the Larry Walker retirement staring the Cards in the face, So Taguchi is not exactly the option they wish to go with everyday in the outfield. Sanders will stay put for at least one more season.

It's Been a Good Ride

Roger Clemens (Astros) — Cy Young or no Cy Young, the Rocket was amazing last season. An ERA under two and a stoic composition that didn't let the frustration of his mates not bothering to bring their bats to the games he started showed us all just what kind of professional Clemens is. Still, every great ride must end, and the way that Roger broke down late last season was hard to watch. Though it is a certainty that Clemens would put up another improbably successful season in 2006 if he so chooses, it is time for him to step aside and let his hometown team begin their rebuilding.

Update: It remains to be seen if the Rocket does retire for good, but kudos for the Astros for at least making a move here. If he doesn't retire, it seems reasonable to assume that Roger will suit up for Houston come early May, though he certainly will tease the markets in Boston in New York a bit to make the Houston ownership sweat a bit.

Rafael Palmeiro (Orioles) — Yes, Raffy will stubbornly try to catch on with some club in 2006. Heck, he may even make the team out of spring training. But it won't take long for him to realize that the fans don't have patience for liars and cheats and his best move is to quietly ride into the sunset with the little dignity he still has. Batting .280 as a part-time DH for the Kansas City Royals won't do anything to help his legacy, and even a man dumb enough to (allegedly) lie to Congress must know this.

There you have it — 40 juicy tidbits for you to chew on between now and April. While it is a strong possibility that less than half of what you read here will actually occur, it does make good food for thought in an otherwise dismal stretch of the MLB offseason.

No matter what happens, just remember where you read it first.