Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.
1. Tony Stewart — Stewart all but clinched his second Cup title with a fourth-place finish in Phoenix. Finishing ahead of all Chase competitors except for one, Greg Biffle, Stewart extended his points lead from 38 to 52 over second-place Jimmie Johnson.
"Now comes the fun part," says Stewart, "my extended victory lap at Homestead."
Stewart needs only to finish ninth or better this Sunday and the championship is his. He has top-10 finishes in 25 of 35 races, including seven of nine Chase races, so the outlook is bleak for the competition.
2. Jimmie Johnson — After running near the front for most of the day, Johnson suffered handling problems in the latter stages of the Phoenix race and finished seventh. Not a bad finish, but not so good when Tony Stewart finishes fourth. Johnson lost 14 points, and now trails Stewart by 52.
"I've got my concession speech written," says Johnson, "but I'm not quite ready to read it. It's simple: we need Tony to finish 43rd. I think we could manage a top-30 finish after that."
In his last three races at Homestead, Johnson has top-10 results on each occasion. Ideally, he would like to get up front and put a little pressure on Stewart, and hope for the best, or worst, in Stewart's case.
3. Carl Edwards — Edwards collected his third straight top-10 finish with a strong sixth at Phoenix, but dropped 10 points to Stewart. Edwards now sits 87 points back, and needs a lot of help to grab the Cup.
"The sad reality is we need two guys, Stewart and Johnson, to have miserable days," says Edwards. "What even sadder is I don't feel the least bit ashamed about wishing for it. All I want to do is listen 'Sabotage' by the Beastie Boys."
Edwards finished 14th last year in the season finale at Homestead. A win would force Stewart and Johnson to finish in the top 20.
4. Greg Biffle — Biffle led the most laps in Phoenix, 189 out of 312, but came up short at the finish, unable to overtake Kyle Busch. Biffle gained 20 points on Stewart, but still has a near-insurmountable 102 point deficit.
"I was never good at math," says Biffle, "but they tell me it's still mathematically possible for me to win this thing. I guess 'mathematically possible' means Stewart, Johnson, and Edwards crashing on the first lap."
Biffle has one more incentive to win the race: a win gives him six on the year, which would give him the series' lead.
5. Mark Martin — Martin finished a disappointing 14th in Phoenix, and fell 162 points behind Stewart. That officially eliminated his possibilities of winning the Cup.
"I can't complain," says Martin. "We here at Roush still one driver alive for the Cup, and three others, myself, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth racing for personal glory. And the other driver? Well, NASCAR did tell Jack he couldn't have a five-car team anymore. So he suspended Kurt Busch."
Martin hopes to close out the year with his second points race win. He has three top-five results in six starts there.
6. Ryan Newman — Newman failed to finish in the top 10 for the third straight race, but did finish 12th after an 11th-place qualifying effort. He now stands sixth in the points, 207 behind Stewart.
"As you know, they call me 'Rocket Man,'" says Newman. "In this case, I think they are referring to how I 'rocketed' out of contention after starting the Chase with three straight top-five finishes."
In three starts at Homestead, Newman's best is a sixth. His last two efforts have been no better than 30th.
7. Matt Kenseth — Brake problems led to a frustrating day for Kenseth and the No. 17 Ford, as several pit stops for repairs cost him three laps. He eventually finished 32nd, two laps down, which dropped him to seventh in the points, 228 out of first.
"But at least I'm not bringing up the rear for Roush Racing," says Kenseth. "That would be the job of Kurt Busch, who had his license revoked by Jack Roush."
Kenseth could finish as high as third in the standings, an unlikely scenario considering he's never finished higher than 19th there.
8. Rusty Wallawce — Wallace suffered a flat left-rear tire with about twenty laps to go, and the subsequent green flag pit stop cost him two laps. He finished 29th, and is now 399 points behind leader Tony Stewart. Wallace's start at Homestead on Sunday will be his final on the Nextel Cup circuit.
"I'm not sure I want to hand over the keys to Kurt Busch, now," says Wallace. "I think he took the 'Rusty's Last Call' deal a bit too far."
Wallace and the Miller Lite team tested at Homestead on November 8th and 9th. They hope to cash that in for a win in Wallace's last race.
9. Jeremy Mayfield — Mayfield finished 24th in Phoenix, and, remarkably, remained in 10th place although Kurt Busch didn't ever race. Mayfield should get out of the cellar at Homestead and pass Busch in the standings and finish ninth.
"I'm moving on up," says Mayfield. "Last year, I finished 10th. This year, I should pull out a ninth. Pretty soon, in a decade or so, I'll be challenging for the Cup."
Mayfield hasn't had a top-10 finish since the Chase's second race. He hopes to break that streak with a strong run at Homestead.
10. Kurt Busch — Busch was suspended for the final two races of the year by Roush Racing after a traffic stop in which he was suspected of driving while intoxicated. He was eventually issued a citation for reckless driving.
"It's not the best circumstances under which to make a move to the Miller Lite car," says Busch. "But I'll survive. Are people going to stop drinking Miller Lite because I'm driving the car? Of course, but not because of a traffic citation."
Busch will watch the season finale from home, and will finish 10th in the Chase a year after winning the title.
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