The four major North American sports fall into two categories:
Predictable and unpredictable.
The unpredictable ones include the NFL and the NHL, where a firm salary cap forces the talent to be dispersed among all of the teams which therefore produces more parity.
The predictable sports include MLB and the NBA, where team spending is not limited and the talent flocks to the big spenders.
Enter the 2005-06 NBA season.
It falls under the second category, and although there is a ton of individual talent worth watching throughout the season, there are really only five or six teams who are a real threat to win the championship.
It's simple, let's go by process of elimination.
Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks — rebuilding is a positive way to describe these teams.
Charlotte Bobcats — let's start with the playoffs first.
New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics — they need to learn to crawl before they can learn to walk.
Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks — out in the first round, maybe the second round, of the playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards, New Jersey Nets — second-tier Eastern Conference teams.
Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Hornets — they are still playing in the sandbox.
Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers — finally ascending, but nowhere near the top.
Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks — I believe the correct term is fogasie.
Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Seattle SuperSonics, Utah Jazz — competing for seventh and eighth in the Western Conference.
Denver Nuggets — see last year's results in the playoffs.
Phoenix Suns — see last year's results in the playoffs, now without Amare Stoudemire.
So after separating the playgirls from the playboys, here is what we have left:
The San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and the Sacramento Kings.
That is the six-horse race we are faced with this season.
You can keep the Kings at the back of the pack for now. They have the depth and the personnel to hang with the mentioned teams, but they are the weakest team defensively, hence their slow start.
The Houston Rockets are the Spurs' main competition in the West. Last year, the Rockets flashed what they were capable of with a starting lineup of Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and three bench players. Now with legitimate starters at point guard (Rafer Alston), shooting guard (Derek Anderson), and power forward (Stromile Swift), their starting five is stronger and their bench is deeper.
The Spurs, for obvious reasons, are the clear-cut favorite. Not only are they the reigning champions and have kept all their key ingredients intact, they have added a few more exotic flavors to the recipe with Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel. You would be hard-pressed to find a deeper team.
It's pretty clear that both conferences are top-heavy. Teams like the Nets and the Nuggets may be somewhat talented, but they are still no match for their conference giants like the Heat or the Spurs.
In the East, the Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, and Indiana Pacers reign supreme.
The Heat should be considered the favorites in this conference considering they came within a game of the finals and added Antoine Walker, James Posey, Jason Williams, and Gary Payton in the offseason. With Shaquille O'Neal, they have an advantage over the Pacers and Pistons, but one area of concern may be team chemistry. Williams, Walker, and Payton don't have a track record of being the best teammates. Can they keep it together as the season wears down?
On the other hand, chemistry is the exact strength of the Pacers and Pistons. The fibers of those teams are tightly knit since they have played together for several seasons.
The Pistons have always been a strong defensive team with their main weaknesses stemming from their offensive game, but with new head coach Flip Saunders, the Pistons have been averaging over 100 points per game. The Pacers also look like a stellar outfit and are extremely motivated after last year's disappointment.
But the bottom line is that the flashy Vince Carter and Jason Richardson dunks may impress you in the regular season, but the championship run doesn't really include their teams or any other teams outside of the six mentioned above.
Contenders and pretenders mix like Mondays and me.
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