Keys on the Road to Super Bowl XL

This has been, like most NFL campaigns, a season whose fate largely lay in the status of body parts. Big Ben Roethlisberger's knee. Mike Martz's heart. Terrell Owens' mouth. With a little less than half a season to play, what are the crucial factors that will determine playoff positioning, homefield advantage, and the combatants for Super Bowl XL?

While many would argue that the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts are the class of the NFL, one must remember that the 7-2 Steelers have played three games without the services of the poised-beyond-his-years Ben Roethlisbeger. It is true that the Colts have re-made themselves into a team spurred by the ground attack of Edgerrin James and a solid defense, rather than last year's imitation of the 1985 Chargers.

Still, Pittsburgh has three solid runners in Duce Staley, Jerome Bettis, and Willie Parker, and a defense that was already established. Safety Troy Polamalu is doing is own interpretation of Ed Reed. Although Pittsburgh is locked in a divisional race with the takeaway-happy Bengals, they are almost assured of at least a wildcard berth. Of course, should Indy secure dome-field advantage, their turf superiority will come into play.

In the AFC East, the Patriots are wading above .500 as they await the return of defensive stars such as Richard Seymour and Teddy Bruschi to full strength. Last year, they were a clock-killing unit led by Corey Dillon, this year the running game has let them down, largely due to Dillon's playing hurt. Motivational players such as Bruschi and Ty Law are impossible to replace, and hurt the team more than the defections of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. With Dillon banged up and the defense short-handed, the legend of Tom Brady loses its gilded edge. The saving factor is the weakness of a division featuring the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets.

The Broncos are a mile above the competition in the AFC West, as San Diego and Kansas City continue their mystery seasons. In Denver, any back shines in the succession of Terrell Davis-Mike Anderson-Olandis Gary-Clinton Portis-Ruben Droughns-Tatum Bell, but in S.D. and K.C., not even stars such as Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, and LaDainian Tomlinson ensure postseason success. Charger QB Drew Brees could not have been expected to post career numbers two years in a row. The biggest question for Oakland is, will A.D. go after T.O.?

The Colts will lose a game, maybe even two, to come back to the field a bit. They will still secure home field advantage, as Cincy and Pitt must meet again in the regular season. Denver benefits from the mediocrity of its division, and will not be a factor past one playoff round. Jake Plummer has earned a lot of respect this season, but Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Roethlisberger already had. The conference title will go to the team whose defense shows up in January — the smart money is on the Steelers.

The Giants and Cowboys will make it a two-team NFC East race for the balance of the year, as Mark Brunell's costly turnovers continue to doom Washington. Bill Parcells' teams tend to come on late, but it would be nice to have RB Julius Jones return to be the factor he was late last season. Keyshawn Johnson has become a threat for the first time in three years. Lovie Smith's sturdy defense has turned the Bears around — the 6-3 club has revived the Windy City's rooting interest — but Kyle Orton is too green to be a playoff star.

The NFC South battle may be traced to the comeback years of two talented wideouts — the Buccaneers' Joey Galloway and the Panthers' Steve Smith. Smith leads the NFL in receiving yards with 937, Galloway is third with 862. Smith as 9 TDs, and speedster Galloway 7. Their strong recoveries have made life easy for QBs Jake Delhomme and Chris Simms. The Bucs need Cadillac Williams to return to early season form to break their 6-3 deadlock with Atlanta, and catch the 7-2 Panthers. The Falcons rest assured that both Matt Schaub and Michael Vick, their young QBs from Virginia colleges, can lead the team.

Seattle holds a three-game lead in the NFC West, as Shaun Alexander piles up MVP votes as easily as he does touchdowns. With 2-7 clubs in New Orleans and San Francisco, the Seahawks' challenge is to stay motivated.

The conference title is up for grabs, and loaded with question marks. Is Eli Manning too young for big games? How will Dallas close? Will Cadillac get an overhaul? How far can the Falcons go? Are the Seahawks a team of destiny? Seattle has a strong shot at homefield. Carolina has players that have "been there" before. Parcells has the coaching resume. Look for a title game between the South division champ and the Seahawks, with an edge to the team from Dixie.

This is the AFC's year. No Patriots in the realistic picture, but Indy, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Cincinnati all strong, balanced teams. Peyton Manning looks to shed the big game jinx, which will manifest as a Big Ben jinx.