Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.
1. Tony Stewart — Stewart reclaimed first place in the points with a runner-up finish at Martinsville after starting on the pole. As has been the case many times this year, Stewart easily led the most laps (283 out of 500), gaining a valuable 10 bonus points, but was unable to pass Gordon at the end.
"Jeff Gordon is an idiot," says Stewart. "Wait a minute. Wrong driver. Greg Biffle is an idiot, as is Chad Knaus, Jimmie Johnson's crew chief. Off the track, though, we're all best of pals."
Stewart's lead is 15 points on Johnson, and his next closest pursuer is Ryan Newman, 63 down. The Chase is shaping up to be a two man race to the wire. Johnson is a favorite in Atlanta, but Stewart has proven he is strong on all types of tracks.
2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's third-place finish kept him solidly in Chase contention, but there were three things wrong with it. One, he finished one place behind Tony Stewart. Two, Johnson didn't lead a single lap. And three, Stewart led the most laps. What does it equal? A 15-point deficit to Stewart in the points.
"I never was good at math," says Johnson. "I guess those bonus points do add up. If I lose the Chase by less than 15 points, I'll be terribly upset. Otherwise, it's a moot point."
In the spring race in Atlanta, Johnson lost to Carl Edwards at the tape, and he won this race last year. Expect Johnson to be a force in Atlanta and take over the points lead.
3. Ryan Newman — Newman's fifth top-10 finish of the Chase, a 10th at Martinsville, vaulted him one position in the points. However, he lost 46 points to the leader, and now stands 63 behind Stewart.
"Wow! That's just the opposite of what happened last week," says Newman. "Last week, I dropped two places and gained on the leader."
Newman has won five straight poles in Atlanta, so one thing's for sure — he'll start first. Finishing first is the problem. He's never won there and has only one top-five finish.
4. Greg Biffle — Biffle fell to number four in the points after finishing 20th in Martinsville, his second finish out of the top 15 in the six Chase races. Tony Stewart had some choice words for Biffle after Biffle, a lap down, refused to yield and let Stewart pass as Stewart was chasing Gordon.
"Does Tony realize this is the Chase?" asks Biffle. "He's leading the points. Shouldn't I do everthing in my power to keep him behind me, so I'll lose fewer points to him. It's simple mathematics. I think Tony's the idiot."
Idiot or not, Biffle needs a top-five finish to challenge Johnson and Stewart. Of course, if they finish in the top five as well, Biffle gets nowhere. He finished third in Atlanta earlier this year, and tenth last year in the fall race.
5. Carl Edwards — Edwards lost considerable ground in the Chase, 95 to be exact, with a 26th-place finish in Martinsville, ending a string of four straight top-10s. Edwards' effort was marred by a faulty handling car that he and his crew never could quite get a grip on. However, Atlanta offers a great site for Edwards to rebound strongly from the disappointment at Martinsville.
"If I'm not backflipping off my car at the end of this race," says Edwards, "then my Chase aspirations go further down the tube. The Edwards' backflip has been seen only twice this year, a lot less than the Stewart fence climb, which was getting a little monotonous, to be honest."
Edwards won in Atlanta earlier this year after a dramatic last lap duel with Johnson. He finished third in this race last year, so his credentials make him one of the favorites.
6. Rusty Wallace — After starting third and racing among the leaders for most of the day, Wallace spun trying to pass a lapped car, sending him into the turn two wall. Well, on his way to a top-10 finish, at worst, Wallace instead finished 19th, his third finish of 19th or worse in six Chase races. He's now 166 behind points leader Stewart.
"At a place like Martinsville," adds Wallace, "half of the field is lap traffic. When you're trying to weave your way through there, it's like navigating bumper cars at the state fair. No matter where you go, you're going to hit someone."
In 19 career starts at Atlanta, Wallace has only one top-five finish, while those ahead of him in the points run much stronger at Atlanta. It could be a discouraging day for Wallace.
7. Mark Martin — Forced to start in a backup car after crashing in practice, Martin struggled with handling all day, and the situation got worse when his brakes failed on lap 434. Martin took the car to the garage for repairs, and returned to finish 34th, 32 laps off the lead. He dropped two places in the points to seventh, while losing 119 points to the leader.
"If you find yourself in the garage at any point during the Chase," says Martin, "you can pretty much kiss your title hopes goodbye. And if you're in there long enough to take a good, solid nap, which I did, then you can really kiss it goodbye."
Martin finished fourth in the Atlanta spring race, and was runner-up last year in the fall. If he could pin his bad luck from Martinsville on Stewart, Johnson, Newman, and Biffle, and win this race, then his season may not be lost.
"Here's to a Halloween curse on those guys," adds Martin.
8. Kurt Busch — Busch finally dug himself out of 10th-place in the Chase, finishing sixth for his second straight top-10. He's now in seventh, 172 points out of first. Busch fought back from a one lap penalty for hitting Michael Waltrip on lap 197.
"What's the reasoning behind penalizing me and no one else for the same infraction committed several times by various drivers?" asks Busch. "It's obvious NASCAR doesn't want me to repeat as champion. That penalty is bogus. I feel like the New Orleans Saints of NASCAR."
Busch has finished 32nd and 42nd at his last two races in Atlanta. But the track sets up well for Roush cars, so look for Busch to make it three straight top-10s.
9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 12th in Martinsville, but finishing ahead of him were three of the top four drivers in the points. As a result, Kenseth lost 48 points to the lead, and effectively lost any chance of challenging for the Cup.
"Hey, it's not over until the fat lady sings," says Kenseth. "And she's behind the curtain, getting ready to take the stage."
Kenseth has not finished better than 31st in his last three outings at Atlanta. Like his counterparts in other Roush cars, his hopes have faded with the success of Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson.
10. Jeremy Mayfield — Mayfield's worst finish of the Chase, a 28th, dropped him to bottom of the standings, 216 points out of the lead. A flat tire on lap 406, and an extra lap on that flat to clear traffic and enter the pits, ended up costing Mayfield three laps, none of which he could make up.
"There you have it," says Mayfield. "I guess you can call that 'Mayfield's Map to Last Place in the Chase.'"
Mayfield has only one top-10 in the Chase, so he raced himself out of contention early. Now, the goal is simply to build momentum for next year.
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