Bluebook Notes #7: BCS Rankings

Each year, there is a debate as to which conference is the toughest in the country. The SEC people think the Pac-10 teams play no defense. The Pac-10 people think that the Big 10 teams play an antiquated version of football where passing and improvisation are banned — and so on and so forth.

I thought it would be interesting to rank the conferences to determine which one was the best. I will primarily rank the six BCS conferences based upon the strength of the top third of their teams. No one really cares if Kentucky would beat Arizona until sometime in March, so that's why I'm not looking at the conferences from top to bottom.

Nevertheless, parity will be considered, as well. A conference that has strong flagship teams, and is loaded from top to bottom will be ranked higher than one without. Now that the ground rules have been established, let's get started.

6) Big East

Top four teams: West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida
Parity level: Medium

I don't think that anyone would argue that the Big East is currently the worst BCS conference right now. Even West Virginia, the highest-ranked team in the Big East, doesn't have a prayer at winning or even playing in the National Championship Game. The parity level in the conference is decent, as an argument could be made for both Pitt and Connecticut to be mentioned in the top four, but the high level of competition needed for a better ranking is sorely lacking.

5) Big 12

Top four teams: Texas, Texas Tech, Colorado, Texas A&M
Parity level: Medium

The Big 12 has a history of being one of the toughest conferences in the nation. Unfortunately, they are down this season with only two teams ranked in the top 25. Texas is the runaway leader, and the talent level drops off considerably after that. Texas Tech looked lost in Austin this Saturday, and Colorado, while playing above expectations, has failed to maintain a top-25 ranking. The parity level in this conference is tricky, because there are six teams (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Iowa State) that are very close as far as talent level. However, since Texas is so much better than the rest, a "medium" ranking is deserved. I look for the Big 12 to be much stronger next year, but for now, they get no better than fifth in my book.

4) Big 10

Top four teams: Penn State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Parity level: Very high

This had to be one of the most difficult rankings I have ever made in my writing career. If I were judging purely on conference balance, the Big 10 would probably be number one. The parity in this league is amazing, as there are at least seven teams with very reasonable chances to win the crown. However, I feel that this parity also indicates a level of mediocrity within the conference, as well. There is no dominant team that can break from the pack and assert their will. Also, the conference has badly underperformed against other BCS divisions. Many of the top teams (Michigan, Northwestern, and Ohio State) have had costly losses against teams when they have played teams outside of the conference. Finally, since there are no true national championship contenders in the Big 10, I believe their ranking is justified.

3) SEC

Top four teams: Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Florida
Parity level: Medium-high

There can be a legitimate argument made to place this conference much higher, however, I have to stand by their current placement. I put the SEC third because of two factors. The first is the Georgia and Alabama's viability to continue to contend for a national title with in their current situation. Georgia almost lost to a miserable Arkansas team without D.J. Shockley and Alabama should have lost at home to Tennessee. The second is that after the top six teams (the top four plus Auburn and Tennessee), the remainder of the conference has been deplorable.

2) Pac-10

Top four teams: USC, UCLA, Oregon, California
Parity level: Medium-high

The Pac-10 has two legitimate national title contenders with USC and UCLA. One of these teams will be in Pasadena this year playing for the national championship. The Pac-10 has also performed well against the other BCS conferences as mid-tier Arizona State lost a winnable game against LSU and demolished Northwestern, 52-21. ASU, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State are all difficult teams to handle for even the upper echelon, and only Washington and Arizona are true bottom-feeders. This conference holds a very slight edge over the SEC in my opinion, and will demonstrate its strength in the bowl games in December and January.

1) ACC

Top four teams: Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Boston College
Parity level: High

The ACC is the best conference in college football. Let's start with their top teams. Virginia Tech has a good chance of heading to Pasadena, and Miami and Florida State cannot be counted out (remember Tennessee in 1998). Boston College is a legitimate top-15 team, and will spring an upset before this season is over. Speaking of upsets, Clemson and Georgia Tech, the ACC's fifth and sixth teams, have delivered with wins over higher rated teams in other conferences. Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina have all impressed with quality wins during this season, and even Wake Forest has played well. The ACC has earned their number one ranking, and will have the most teams out of all of the BCS conferences in bowl games this year.

The HeisDAQ

The race for the Heisman Trophy fluctuates week by week. The HeisDAQ will let you know whose Heisman "stock" is rising and falling. Now that the race is winding down, I will highlight the five guys with the best chances of taking home the hardware.

1) Reggie Bush, RB/KR/PR USC (strong buy) — Bush has only enhanced his chances of winning the Heisman with a solid performance last week. His 86-yard punt return was something special and was shown over and over on SportsCenter. He has proven that he has the ability necessary to get the trophy.

2) Vince Young, QB Texas (strong buy) — V.Y. has overtaken Matt Leinart and is performing well week after week. His two interceptions against Texas Tech on Saturday were overshadowed by the absolute dominance of his team.

3) Matt Leinart, QB USC (buy) — Leinart is still very much in the Heisman race even though I've dropped him down to third. He had a nice rebound game against the Huskies and was back to his dominating self. However, I just don't think he's had the type of season that was needed to repeat as Heisman trophy winner. We will see.

4) Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame (buy) — Quinn had an electrifying six-touchdown performance against BYU. He showed no signs of a hangover after the bitter defeat to USC and led his team to a convincing win over the Cougars. Unfortunately for Quinn, the gap between him and the top three is considerable and he will need a miracle in order to win.

5) Maurice Drew, RB UCLA (speculative buy) — Drew has become the wildcard in the Heisman race. He is having a phenomenal year and has become the most feared punt-returner in the country (yes, including Reggie Bush). He will stay in the hunt as long as the Bruins stay undefeated and cracks the top three if they beat USC.

Games to Watch/Picks to Click

Season Record: 11-8 ATS; Last Week: 1-2 ATS

Georgia (+4) @ Florida

Most people believe that Florida will win this game handily, but I'm not ready to buy off on that yet. The loss of D.J. Shockley hurts Georgia, but the Bulldog defense has really been the key to their success and they are still in tact. Nevertheless, I do think that Florida will win, as they have had time to prepare and heal up due to their bye week. It will be close, but Florida pulls it out in a squeaker.

Fixed Leak 20, Bulldogged 14

Michigan @ Northwestern (+3)

This will be the game that proves that Northwestern is for real. They are underdogs on paper, due to Michigan's reputation, but I believe they will win this game. Brett Basanez has been on fire lately, and has played as well as anyone in the Big 10. Michigan still has injury problems, but I believe they will make it a competitive game. The Wolverines must be able to run the ball effectively to have a chance.

Sons of Darnell Autry 31, Michiganders 27

UCLA @ Stanford (+7 ½)

The Cardinal have had a history of upsetting good UCLA teams. This will be on everyone's mind as the Bruins march up to the farm on Saturday. Trent Edwards, Stanford's quarterback, has looked as good as anyone in the Pac-10 recently and has the Cardinal on a three-game winning streak. However, the undefeated Bruins will prevail due to their better balance on offense, and the fact that Stanford's running game is not where it needs to be.

Dorrell's Bruins 42, Trees 31

Mailbag

This week's e-mail comes from Jeb in College Station, TX:

Reggie McNeal a flop! You must be kidding me! Reggie doesn't play on defense nor special teams, and since when has one person been responsible for the fate of an entire team. Reggie is a much better quarterback than everyone gives him credit for, and just because he's not in running for the Hypesman doesn't mean that he lacks skills. Please don't jump back on the bandwagon when he leads the Ags over the Horns.

Jeb, I don't think McNeal is a flop, I just think his campaign for Heisman Trophy winner has flop. Reggie McNeal is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but he's just not performing at a level that will warrant serious Heisman consideration. I love his game, but his team just hasn't been able to win the higher-profile games (Clemson and Colorado). I don't know if the Ags will win against UT, but if they do, I will be the first to sing his praises.

Do you think that I'm "off my rocker," or did I hit the proverbial "nail on the head?" Let me know! Send an e-mail to [email protected] and include your name and hometown. I'll do my best to include it in the next week's column.