An Early AFC North Showdown

We're six weeks into the NFL season and it seems to me that there is a very fine line between winning and losing in this league. Sure, the Indianapolis Colts are undefeated and the Houston Texans are winless (and they happen to play this weekend), but in between, things are not so easy to sort out. As we head into the meat of the season, this is the time we begin to sort out which teams are flukes and which teams are for real.

I want to take a look at one game in particular that will help begin this sorting out process: Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Cincinnati Bengals game. This is a big game. It is a divisional game that could very well set the tone for the season. It is also an important game mentally for both teams.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-2 after two heartbreaking losses. A win on Sunday and they are back on track and positioned to win the division. A loss and they are at .500 and looking up at the Bengals. The challenge for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year is going to be staying healthy and not beating themselves. They have the talent that allowed them to go 15-1 last year. Ben Roethlisberger won't light up the place, but he is smart, dangerous when mobile, and backed-up by a strong running game. The defense has some holes in the secondary, but is stout against the run and aggressive enough to force mistakes and turnovers.

But the Steelers' style and talent are not enough to overcome key injuries or self-inflicted wounds. They will need to win the Steeler way, with ground control offense, strategic passing, and an aggressive defense.

Last week was a great example of how things can go wrong. Ben Roethlisberger was forced out after being injured in the Monday night game against San Diego. Despite being banged up himself, Tommy Maddox was declared the starter. All-Pro wideout Hines Ward was also out. It is a giant understatement to say things did not go well. And most of the blame falls on the hapless Maddox.

"Touchdown Tommy" had three interceptions and fumble in the overtime loss to Jacksonville. Not only did Maddox put the Steelers behind the eight ball with two picks on their first three drives, he managed to single-handedly lose the game in OT. The Steelers get the ball first in overtime and Cedric Wilson promptly ran the kick back 74 yards. The Steelers are perfectly positioned to kick the game winning field goal. But no! After a couple of running plays, Maddox bungles the snap and fumbles the ball. The defense remarkably does its job and the Steelers get the ball back. What does Maddox do? Throws another interception that the Jags run back for the game-winning touchdown. Nice work, Tommy!

How unbelievably frustrating. The defense and special teams played well enough to win this game. The defense only gave up a couple of sustained drives all game. One Jacksonville touchdown came directly off a Maddox interception that gave them the ball on the Pittsburgh seven-yard line. The defense stopped the Jags on 4th-and-2 early in the game and intercepted Byron Leftwich to prevent a possible game-winning touchdown with less than 30 seconds left. After the first turnover in OT, the defense again held and got the ball back for the offense.

Special teams contributed, as well. Antwan Randel El ran a punt back for a score and Cedric Wilson had the great return to set the offense up in OT. How many more chances was Maddox and the offense going to get to win this game? None, as it turned out because Maddox's third interception ended the game.

When playing a quality team, the Steelers simply can't afford to make these kind of mistakes. Eventually, they will come back to haunt you. Thank goodness Roethlisberger is going to start Sunday against the Bengals. If the Steelers want to prove that they are still the dominant team in the division and a threat to finally go to the Super Bowl this is a big game. Turnovers and mistakes won't cut it, either. The Bengals have enough talent to make you pay for turnovers and mistakes. Just ask the Tennessee Titans about that.

The key to this game will be the running game of the Steelers' versus the passing game of the Bengals'. The Steelers should be able to run on the Bengals' defense. Cincinnati's front four will be out-manned by the Steelers' offensive line. I think both Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker will have room to run. If the Steelers can control the clock and keep Carson Palmer and the Bengals' offense off the field, they have the upper hand.

What could be a problem is Pittsburgh's banged-up secondary. The defense can't give up the big play. The Steeler defense, I believe, can stop the Bengals from running the ball consistently. But they will need to get pressure on Palmer so the Bengals passing game can't get on track. If you give Palmer time, he will find Chad Johnson and make the big plays downfield. The Steelers can't afford to get in a shootout with the Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals are no longer the laughing stock of the NFL. Under head coach Marvin Lewis, they have dropped the losing attitude and built a talented team with the likes of Carson Palmer and Chad and Rudi Johnson. They got off to a hot start, handily winning their first three games and they are 5-1 and at the top of the division. This doesn't look like the old Bengals.

Questions remain, however, as the schedule has been weak so far and Cincinnati has struggled at times. In many ways, they were lucky to escape with a 16-10 win against the Texans. A controversial fumble call played a big role in helping the Bengals dodge a bullet in a game in which they had over 100 yards in penalties — including a negated touchdown. They followed that shaky win with a loss to Jacksonville that included a number of miscues (a last-minute fumble ended their comeback attempt) and a heated sideline argument between Palmer and Chad Johnson.

The Bengals are 5-1 for the first time since 1988 after beating the Tennessee Titans last week, but even that wasn't easy. The Titans ran the ball practically at will against the Bengals and surged out to a 10-0 lead. But the game turned on two big turnovers. Trailing 17-10 in the third quarter, Tory James hit Titans WR Tyrone Calico just as the ball arrived, allowing opportunistic Bengals linebacker Odell Thurman to grab the ball out of the air and run it back for a touchdown.

Leading 24-20, the defense once again came up big. Trying to engineer the comeback, Steve McNair got the ball to running back Chris Brown for what looked like a successful screen play. But Tory James once again intervened, hitting Brown and causing a fumble that he ran back to the one-yard line. Rudi Johnson took it in on the next play for a touchdown and the Bengals held on for the win.

The key for the Bengals on Sunday is to cut out the penalties (they are the most penalized team in the AFC), toughen their run defense, and continue their opportunistic ways. The Bengals are giving up nearly five yards a carry on the ground and over 117 yards per game. In contrast, the Steelers are only giving up 3.4 and 90 respectively. What has helped offset this mediocre run defense has been their ability to create turnovers. The Bengals lead the league in turnover margin.

The Bengals need to force the Steelers to make the big mistakes and take advantage when opportunities present themselves. This is exactly what they failed to do last year. Despite getting to Roethlisberger, sacking him seven times, and causing both an interception and a fumble, the Bengals allowed Jerome Bettis to run for 129 yards. The Bengals led 14-10 at the half, but played poorly in the second half and allowed the Steelers to control the clock and the tempo. Once the Steelers got the lead, they pounded Bettis and played tough defense to hold on for the 19-14 win.

Penalties and missed opportunities had coach Marvin Lewis screaming at his team in the locker room. Lewis' comments last year bear repeating:

"This is the angriest I've been," said Lewis, who always tries to accentuate the positive. "We're not going to accept mediocrity. If we accept getting close, if we accept leading in the first half, we're not going to get any better. We're not going to accept that."

This game will go a long way to determining whether this is a new Cincinnati Bengals or just a flashier version of the old one.

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