In this special edition of Bluebook Notes, I will take a closer look at the ten teams with the best shot at heading to the Rose Bowl.
USC (Odds 3:2)
Why they're going: Why is Southern California the favorite to go to the Rose Bowl this season? For starters, their offense is loaded and has been clicking on all cylinders. Reggie Bush has racked up a ton of all-purpose yards, and Matt Leinart has had a phenomenal senior year. Even though they haven't played their best football in their last three games, they've still managed to outscore their opponents 125-63 in that span. The recent comebacks against Oregon and Arizona State have only strengthened the resolve of a team stacked with talent.
Why they're not: Even though the Trojans are almost unstoppable on offense, their defense still is a bit shaky. USC is very green in the secondary and teams with strong offensive firepower can and will take advantage of that. They face three teams (Notre Dame, California, and UCLA) who can all throw the ball efficiently and will put their defense to the test.
Conclusion: The Trojans should win all of their remaining games, and head on to Pasadena.
Texas (7:2)
Why they're going: Texas has played even better than I thought this season, and is clicking on all cylinders. Vince Young has shown everyone that he can indeed pass the ball, and he definitely has not forgotten how to run. Speaking of running, Jamaal Charles, the Longhorns' freshman sensation, has shown why people are comparing him favorably to guys like Ricky Williams and Cedric Benson. The Longhorn defense has also been superb, with a great pass rush and excellent coverage downfield. Their schedule looks fairly easy with Texas Tech and the Big 12 championship game (most likely against Colorado, this week's opponent) as their only tests.
Why they're not: I really think that the BCS might just mess with Texas. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, the Big 12 is about as strong as Richard Simmons this year. Oklahoma has disappeared from the spotlight, and Texas A&M has to be one of the biggest disappointments in all of college football. Even the win against Ohio State doesn't sparkle as much due to the fact that the Buckeyes lost to Penn State last Saturday. Texas benefited from the BCS chaos by knocking out a more deserving Cal team last year, and this season, turnabout might just be fair or unfair play.
Conclusion: I have a feeling that we will find out this year if the BCS has truly taken "strength of schedule" out of the equation. I think that in any polling system, strength of schedule is included in either a conscious or unconscious basis. I think that the Longhorns will make it, but its going to be pretty darn close.
Florida State (9:2)
Why they're going: In my ACC preview, I stated that Bobby Bowden must have his best coaching year in order for the Seminoles to have a chance this season, and he has. This team has looked better and better every week and the offense is finally starting to gel. Drew Weatherford's spirals are looking crisper by the day, and FSU's vaunted defense has imposed their will on their opponents. Florida State's schedule looks manageable, as even the hated Gators look pretty tame right now. They stand an excellent chance of being undefeated going in to the conference championship game, and if they can win that, they should have all of the BCS support they need.
Why they're not: The Seminoles have not moved the ball on the ground this season. This just might jump up and bite them when least expect it. Their defense has played well, but any squad can be susceptible to fatigue, and the ground game controls that. I see the game against Clemson as a potential stumbling block.
Conclusion: I don't know if the Seminoles have the team to beat Virginia Tech. If they do, Bobby Bowden's bringing his team to Pasadena.
Virginia Tech (9:2)
Why they're going: Virginia Tech has played magnificent football this season. Marcus Vick has shown that he is a capable passer, and can spread the ball effectively down the field. The real story, though, is Tech's defense. They have only allowed an average of 235 yards a game and they totally disrupt the other team's game plan. The dominated the Georgia Tech game, and stepped it up in the second half against West Virginia. These guys are for real.
Why they're not: Tech has a schedule filled with land mines. Their next four opponents (Maryland, Boston College, Miami, and Virginia) are all capable of springing an upset. Also, Florida State will most likely await them in the championship game. As you can see, the Hokies will have to be almost perfect to stay undefeated and go to Pasadena.
Conclusion: I think that Virginia Tech will go 5-1 in their next six games. I don't know to whom they will lose to, but I just don't think can get through their schedule without dropping one game. The good news for V-Tech fans is that another BCS bowl will undoubtedly pick them up with just one loss.
Georgia (12:1)
Why they're going: The main reason why Georgia is even being considered as a possible Rose Bowl contender is because of D.J. Shockley. The former five-star recruit waited patiently for his chance under David Greene, and has shown why he was so highly-regarded. He can hurt you with his arm or his legs and can break a team down. The Bulldogs have also been stout on defense, even with the loss of David Pollack to the NFL. Their schedule is tough, but they should be favored in every contest, except for their visit to Gainesville. Also, having the SEC championship game in Atlanta doesn't hurt.
Why they're not: Most of the major powers in this year's SEC suffer from an anemia offense. Tennessee, Florida, and even LSU at times (12-6 against Vandy after three?!) have all looked downright pitiful on offense. This has caused the conference to lose some of its luster, and Georgia will suffer in the rankings because of it. The Bulldogs are also showing signs of struggling with the ball, as their defense and special teams carried the load last week. Mark Richt's team is going to have to fine-tune their offense if they plan on staying undefeated.
Conclusion: I think Georgia is on the outside looking in this season.
Miami (FL) (15:1)
Why they're going: Miami has seemed to correct the problems they've had on offense lately and are looking very impressive. Their 23-3 thumping of Colorado looks a lot better now, and they are gaining momentum heading into the more difficult section of their schedule.
Why they're not: The Hurricanes have two major obstacles. The first is that they have already lost to Florida State. It will be hard for them to gain ground if other teams don't lose. The second obstacle is their game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech looks to be the more complete team at this moment, and pulling out a victory would be a monumental task.
Conclusion: I think the Hurricanes will overcome one of the two obstacles facing them. Unfortunately, they won't conquer both, and they will be headed most likely to the Orange Bowl.
Alabama (15:1)
Why they're going: I thought that the Tide would do reasonably well this season, but they have exceeded all of my expectations. Brodie Croyle is looking like a legitimate Heisman contender at quarterback and Mike Darby has run the ball with authority as well. Their smackdown of a good Florida team shows that this team has the talent on both sides of the ball needed to get to Pasadena.
Why they're not: One of the major strikes against Alabama will be the loss of Tommy Prothro. Prothro, the all-world receiver in Tuscaloosa, was the major playmaker on offense and that will limit Mike Shula's creativity. Also, the schedule will be very difficult from here on out, and the Iron Bowl against Auburn might just be the game that gets away.
Conclusion: I love what the Tide are doing this year, but I don't think they make it to Pasadena. They need far too much help and they do not have enough firepower to stay undefeated.
Notre Dame (15:1)
Why they're going: Brady Quinn and the Irish have had an almost perfect season. It seems as if they are always knocking on the red zone when they touch the ball. Another thing that's "knocking" is opportunity. The No. 1-ranked Trojans are coming into South Bend, and a victory catapults the Irish into the top three.
Why they're not: Even with all of the success Notre Dame has had this season, they will have to play a perfect game against USC to win this Saturday. Even with the rumored green jersey and "Touchdown Jesus," I just don't see it happening. Of course, with two losses, the odds of a national championship berth are just about zero.
Conclusion: Notre Dame's schedule is always one of the toughest in the nation. This schedule virtually assures them of a BCS bowl game if they can pull off nine wins. Unfortunately for them, this year's schedule will also give them two losses, which puts them out of contention.
Penn State (20:1)
Why they're going: The Nittany Lions have got to be the "feel good" story of 2005. The legendary Joe Paterno was on his way to a controversial and not so quiet sunset with his teams underperforming the last couple of seasons. Joe Pa has definitely turned it around and his team is executing beautifully.
Why they're not: Penn State fans have got to be concerned with the consistency on offense. Michael Robinson has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has not been steady enough at quarterback. Also, the Lions were ranked so far below everyone else in the start of the season that people just don't believe that they are this good. This perception will kill them in the BCS rankings.
Conclusion: Penn State has a bone to pick with all of the national sports writers and media. If they were ranked where Ohio State was in the preseason, they could almost punch their ticket to Pasadena. Of course they are not, so another BCS bowl seems to be the obvious fit for the resurgent Nittany Lions.
UCLA (30:1)
Why they're going: The return to glory for the UCLA Bruins is another saga unfolding before our eyes this season. Karl Dorrell, UCLA's head coach, was on the hot seat before the season began, but has redeemed himself to the faithful in Westwood, and has this team undefeated. Maurice Jones-Drew has been the catalyst of a supercharged offense, which has taken the nation by storm. The Bruins will be favored in their next five matchups, which will potentially put them at 10-0 against USC.
Why they're not: The Bruin defense has been very unpredictable this year. Injuries to Kevin Brown and Nikola Dragovic have depleted an already undersized defensive line. The new guys on the line along with the rest of the unit will be put to the supreme test against USC. The Trojans should exploit the Bruin weaknesses up front and make it a long day for Karl Dorrell.
Conclusion: UCLA's national championship game will most likely be held at the Coliseum on December 3rd. This rivalry game against USC will be hyped as one of the greatest ever. I don't think the Bruins have enough weapons to counteract the Trojans on offense, and even if they pull off the upset, they still might be denied a chance to stay and play in Pasadena, due to the "lovable" BCS.
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Games to Watch/Picks to Click
Season Record: 7-6 ATS; Last Week: 2-2 ATS
USC @ Notre Dame (+12)
This will be one of the best games of the year. Both teams possess immense offensive firepower and scoring should not be a problem. The key to victory will be which team can run the ball more effectively. Notre Dame has good backs with Darius Walker, and Rashaun Powers-Neal, but the Trojans' tandem of Bush and White is the best in the country. Even though I think USC will win the game, I don't see them covering as Charlie Weis will device schemes that will expose the weakened Trojan secondary.
Leinart & Crew 38, Brady's Bunch 28
Florida (+6) @ LSU
I don't think Florida stands a chance in this one. Chad Johnson and Dallas Baker are both out for this one and an already-hurting Chris Leak is one untimely hit away from an injury. Florida's offensive line has not handled blitz packages effectively enough, and LSU will bring the pressure all day. The Tigers should handle a Gator team that is nowhere near full strength.
Survivors 35, Sub-Urbans 13
Michigan State (+6) @ Ohio State
This game basically boils down to how well Drew Stanton and Co. will fare against the Ohio State defense. I think that Michigan State will do fairly well, as they have had two weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes. Ohio State will have to run the ball effectively in order for their defense to stay fresh enough to be effective. It should be close, but I think Ohio State barely covers.
Ginn is Back! 27, Spartacus 20
The Mailbag
This week's comes from John from SEC land.
Smith, I do not agree with you on very much...VY deserves the Heisman, no one should be able to win it twice, because there is no way that anyone can really pick who should have it one time much less twice. CHRIS LEAK IS NOT EVEN THE # 2 BEST QB IN THE SEC, SO WHY PLACE HIM ON YOUR LIST? The best QB in the SEC is at Vandy, and BAMA QB is second, Shockley next and by the way there is a freshman at LSU better than all of them...maranatha!!!
John, I've got to say that I don't agree very much with you on this one, buddy. Vince Young is certainly in my Heisman top three, but I think Reggie Bush is the best player in America, hands down. I think you are closer to the truth when you rank the quarterbacks in the SEC. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt's quarterback, is the second best quarterback in the conference. I think that Brodie Croyle, Alabama's signal-caller, is my No. 1. Even with all of this said, the Heisman is about hype, and that's why Leak was among the top candidates until the recent thumping he took in Tuscaloosa. He has no chance of winning now. Thanks for the e-mail, John!
Do you think that I'm "off my rocker," or did I hit the proverbial "nail on the head?" Let me know! Send an e-mail to [email protected] and include your name and hometown. I'll do my best to include it in the next week's column.
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