Reversal of Fortune in the Big 10

In my Big 10 preview, I stayed pretty close to the national script — Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, and Michigan were heads and shoulders above the remaining seven teams. After the end of most of the non-conference play, only Purdue, at this writing, has a clean non-conference sheet of the Big Four — and they still have Notre Dame left on it.

Okay, so surely the Big Four will dominate the conference play? After just one lone week of conference scrimmages, only one of the Big Four, Ohio State, is without a loss.

In the Big 10, down has always been up and predictions best made by darts.

So who is the real deal in the Big 10? Ohio State must surely still be considered a favorite. Iowa and Michigan look lost. Purdue lost a shootout on the road to Minnesota, and should rebound. But it's the teams outside the Big Four that deserve the most ink right now.

Speaking of ink, there's been much of it spilled over Minnesota's yearly near-breakthrough. With the exception of this year, there was always at least one major publication ready to declare the upcoming Big 10 season the Year of the Gopher. It still hasn't happened, and count me among those who believe it's not going to happen, at least not this year. It doesn't seem to matter if it's the NFL or NCAA, if you are a football resident of the Metrodome, you fold like prize-winning origami to the slightest of road tests. As much as I like Laurence Maroney, I'm not much of a believer in running backs carrying teams.

Or maybe I should be. If you don't know Brian Calhoun yet, introduce yourself, for it is he and not Maroney that is the best back in the Big 10.

What's amazing about Calhoun's win over Michigan is that a) with the rest of Wisconsin's offense dead up until the last three plays, Michigan could afford to key on him, b) Michigan did key on him, c) Wisconsin gave him the rock play after play anyway, d) He ripped off nice gains play after play anyway. Nice defensive effort aside, it seems fitting to award Calhoun the solo victory. Furthermore, between the lukewarm results and the recruit party scandals of last year, Calhoun (unhappy and obviously not used effectively for Colorado) may be the transfer-out that ends up costing Gary Barnett his job.

I'm sure I'm missing several people, but the last big-program-to-another transfer to have this great of an impact in college football, at least in the Big 10, might've been Jeff George's jaunt from Purdue to Illinois in 1987.

As excited as I am about Calhoun, the rest of the Wisconsin offense is probably on par with the Sun Belt Conference. One-dimensional offensive attacks haven't impressed me too much since the heyday of the Nebraska option. Next.

Penn State? They are quite possibly for real. As outstanding as Ohio State's and Wisconsin's defense has played, and as honorable-mention-to-be-generous as Penn State's D was against Northwestern, I still kind of like the Lions' defense as the best in the Big 10.

At last, Penn State has also learned how to score some points, even if Michael Robinson only tantalizes PSU fans to infuriate them later. Still, I'm not even writing this paragraph and no one is discussing Penn State outside of Happy Valley if they didn't convert an unlikely 4th-and-15 on their game-winning drive against Northwestern. I see the Lions knocking off Minnesota this week and then it all boils down to their October 8th hosting of Ohio State. Is it fair to say that the last five years, at least, of Nittany Lion football have led up to this game? And yet I can't say I really think they will get it done.

If any team is going to knock off the Buckeyes this year and win the Big 10, one must give the longest, hardest look to Michigan State. Finally, a multi-faceted offense. Finally, a Big 10 team with a quality win. The way they beat Notre Dame, with all the intangible magic of the Irish at home working against them after blowing a big lead. It was really something to behold, even if Michigan State has owned South Bend of late.

You've probably heard it by now, but it still drops the jaw: Michigan State is 9-1 against top 10 teams since 1997 — and 47-43 in all of their other games. Each victory, save one over those top-10 teams, was immediately followed by a loss. The Spartans, wanting to put that knock against them to bed, followed up their win at South Bend by raping Illinois. Tasteless verb to use, I realize, but then the way the Spartans were throwing on fourth down deep in Illini territory up 61-14 with under two minutes to go was even more tasteless. With apologies to Gregg Easterbrook, I hope the football gods noticed that one.

Another thing working against Michigan State is simply their schedule. They do host Michigan this week, but their remaining road schedule is at Ohio State, at Purdue, and at Minnesota. Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State come to East Lansing.

So which of these supposed middle-of-the-pack teams will snatch the Big 10 title out from under the prognosticators' eyes? Or will one of the Big Four rebound and make us guys look like we were smart all along? Well, I'll tell you. Just hand me the darts.