NFL Math: Early Test Results

Once the gun goes off to end the Super Bowl, NFL teams take a close look at their rosters and begin to assemble a plan to improve their team. Each team has its own plan, and each plan yields different results.

Week 1 of the NFL season has given a glimpse (if somewhat early) on how successful the process was.

Addition By Addition

This is the favored manner of improving. The idea is to keep the good players you already have and simply add better players at the weaker positions.

This is easier said than done in the salary-cap era and can also lead to accusations that the team hasn't really done anything to improve.

New York Jets

The Jets think they pretty much have all the puzzle pieces and just need to put them all together. The team spent a second-round draft choice on Ohio State kicker (and team captain) Mike Nugent in order to replace Doug Brien, who missed two field goals in the final two minutes of the Pittsburgh playoff game the Jets lost by three points.

QB Chad Pennington however, fumbled six times in Week 1, and looked anything but the guy who can get Gang Green deep into the AFC playoffs. Rookie kicker Mike Nugent fell on one of his attempts and the Jets fans may be a little worried with what they saw early this season.

St. Louis Rams

St. Louis is several years removed from the "Greatest Show on Turf" teams that appeared to score at will.

WR Torry Holt is still explosive and QB Marc Bulger can move the ball through the air, but something is still missing. The Rams also tried to address their defensive shortcomings by adding a number of defensive free agents. The result, a first game loss to the San Francisco 49ers who should be in a race for worst team in the NFL. Not a good start for head coach Mike Martz.

Seattle Seahawks

Last season, the Seahawks were the in vogue pick for the Super Bowl. The most glaring weakness of their game was the large number of dropped passes from their receivers. Joe Jurevicius and Jerome Pathon were added to address this. Pathon didn't make the final roster, but Jurevicius caught a TD in Week 1.

The jury is still out, but coach Mike Holmgren must be running out of time if the Seahawks deliver another .500 season. Although, the Seahawks lost their opener, if the receiver play continues to improve, the Seahawks have a good chance to represent the NFC West in the playoffs.

New York Giants

The Giants used free agency to plug most of the holes in their team. WR Plaxico Burress looks like a good pickup to haul in the passes from a developing Eli Manning. Burress even contributed a TD in a Week 1 win over the Arizona Cardinals, this year's in vogue pick for most improved.

The Giants are solid with RB Tiki Barber and if Manning improves quickly and the defense comes together, the Giants may have put together a solid team.

Chicago Bears

Here is an example of the dangers of adding one or two guys without an eye for depth on your football team.

The Bears drafted RB Cedric Benson and signed WR Muhsin Muhammad. Then, QB Rex Grossman went down in the preseason. The Bears now need to rely on rookie Kyle Orton to lead the offense.

Week 1 saw the Bears drop a game to the "ready-to-beat Washington Redskins," who seem to add players without any real plan for development or succession. While the Bears weren't really a great threat to make a whole bunch of noise this season, the Grossman injury just seems to set them back.

Addition By Subtraction

Some teams feel that instead of adding someone, they really need to take someone away, someone who is holding them back. This player may disrupt locker room chemistry or simply is someone who can always be counted upon to make the wrong move at the wrong time.

Minnesota Vikings

There was a limit for the Randy Moss soap opera after all in Minnesota. After admitting to taking plays off, insulting fellow players and coaches, leaving a game early, and fake-mooning the crowd in Green Bay, the Vikings figured they couldn't move ahead with Moss and let him go.

In Moss' place, the Vikings selected South Carolina WR Troy Williamson in the draft who has great speed, but wide receivers generally don't find their stride until their third year in the league or so (with Moss a great exception).

The defense is much improved, but if the Vikings lose their ability to put up lots of points, and Week 1 has shown that some of that ability may be lost, the improved defense may not be able to help the team get deeper into the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

Drew Bledsoe drew more criticism than cheers his last few seasons in Buffalo. The Bills, who started last season 0-4, but finished 8-2, decided to let the immobile Bledsoe go and turn the game over to second-year J.P. Losman.

While Bledsoe led his new team, the Dallas Cowboys, to a win against San Diego, Losman has Buffalo fans looking for great things after his performance. Losman moved the pocket, scrambled, and looked very poised for a young QB making his first start.

The Bills defense doesn't look like it will fall out of the top five this season and this may be the year that Buffalo makes the playoffs after a five-year absence.

Addition By Other Peoples' Subtraction

This strategy has your team pick up the players that other teams let go for various reasons: too old, too expensive, and too high-maintenance.

While your roster may end up with a number of big names on it, the effectiveness of your team may not add up to the sum of all the individual parts.

Oakland Raiders

Of course the Raiders fit here. The Silver and Black have been a destination for the league's huddled masses for years. The misfits and quirky players can find a place under the wing of Al Davis, with varying results.

The Raiders have won Super Bowls and have finished in the basement, but have never been boring.

The big-name misfit this year is, of course, Randy Moss. Run out of Minnesota, Moss has found a home in Oakland and fits in with the long passing game that Al Davis loves.

Warren Sapp, Kerry Collins, and Moss lead the names of players who were let go by their former team and migrated west.

Moss will catch touchdowns because that is what he does. However, players like Sapp have seen their best days already and long touchdowns don't mean you win Super Bowls (see the Minnesota Vikings).

Washington Redskins

Owner Dan Snyder hasn't met a price tag he didn't like. After years of spending like a drunken sailor on other teams' cast-offs, the Redskins don't appear to be any closer to getting back to the Super Bowl.

At least the Raiders put on an entertaining show with their collection of re-treads. The Redskins though just keep coasting along without any real plan of putting together a team and are rewarded with the largest home crowds in the league.

The defense under Gregg Williams has been near the top of the league, but the offense has so many holes that not even Joe Gibbs seems able to turn things around.

The Redskins did get a win in Week 1, but other wins may not come in bunches in their division with six games against seemingly perennial power Philadelphia, perhaps an improved Dallas, and an up-and-coming New York Giant team.

Of course, Week 1 trends don't always predict how the season will unfold, but seeing your plans lead to a win is always better than second-guessing because of a loss.