Tuesday, September 13, 2005
NFL Week 1 Power Rankings
Five Quick Hits
* Lots of penalties this weekend. Hopefully, everyone will shape up and adjust quickly.
* Derrick Mason got up dancing after a catch in the Sunday night game. You'd think a veteran would know you don't dance when you're losing 17-0.
* Norv Turner is making a funny face. John Madden: "That's a position that a coach gets into when you don't know exactly what happened, but you think you do and you don't want to hear it."
* Listening to the radio on Sunday, I heard someone declare that Shaun Alexander was the most underrated player in the NFL. How can a Pro Bowler, who went in the first round of every fantasy draft in the country, be the most underrated guy in the league?
* I hate squib kicks.
***
Every year, Week 1 provides a chance for teams to show something new, like Kansas City's defense or Tampa Bay's rookie RB Cadillac Williams. Unfortunately, ESPN's Sunday Night announcing team hasn't changed a bit. The ridiculous hype was present, as usual, but it's not every game that one of the announcers accuses another of having a small penis. Paul McGuire actually said to Joe Theismann, and I quote, "Speaking of short, you would know." Classy and professional, this guy.
The other problems were more predictable. The broadcast missed the first play of the second quarter. Theismann claimed that Baltimore quarterback Kyle Boller was "playing pretty darn well tonight" when Boller left the game. Boller's team was trailing 17-0, he'd just been sacked, and his passer rating was 63.9. That's pretty darn bad.
On to the power rankings. The number in brackets shows last week's rank.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers [9] — Ben Roethlisberger threw only 11 passes on Sunday, the team's fewest attempts in almost 30 years. All last season, I proclaimed that teams have to shut down the run and make Roethlisberger win with his arm. He usually will, but at least then you've got a chance. It's tough to draw many conclusions from their rampage over the young, rebuilding Titans, but it looks like Pittsburgh has picked up where it left off last season.
2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — The offense came together after a rusty start and the defense looked impressive, but I saw reason for serious concern in Sunday night's game. On offense, Peyton Manning threw almost exclusively to his wide receivers, neglecting the running backs and tight ends. There's nothing inherently problematic about that, but I got the impression that Manning didn't really trust anyone but Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. The defense had an impressive showing against Baltimore's joke of an offense, but I believe it will struggle against good teams. The Ravens gave up on the run early, with only seven attempts in the second half.
Indianapolis could win 13 games this year and it wouldn't surprise me, but I don't like them in the postseason because I think they're built to blow-out bad teams, not beat good ones. Keep things close against the Colts, and you'll beat their defense running the ball. Get them behind, and Manning starts forcing things, making mistakes. This is a very good team, but I don't think it's the best.
3. New England Patriots [4] — Oakland's defense focused on stopping the run, and New England responded with a big passing day. I worry that the Patriots created so little for themselves, though. They got a lot of help from Oakland penalties, and they're awfully reliant on turnovers. New England wins the turnover battle pretty consistently, but it's risky to count on that to win games. The Pats did enough to win, and that's fine for now, but they'll need to play better to beat good teams. Richard Seymour had a tremendous game.
4. Atlanta Falcons [10] — No unit impressed me more in Week 1 than Atlanta's defense. Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman both looked like Defensive Player of the Year candidates, and DeAngelo Hall had a very good game against Terrell Owens. On offense, the line was great, Warrick Dunn was great, and Michael Vick shook off a few bad plays, showing his amazing speed and versatility, plus a great long bomb to Michael Jenkins. Even the special teams looked terrific. Vick needs to get rid of the ball more quickly, though, so he can avoid sacks that lead to fumbles and injuries.
5. Philadelphia Eagles [2] — They usually start slowly under Andy Reid, so I'm not terribly concerned about the Eagles. I'd feel better, though, if there were more evidence of a running game and solid run defense. It's probably unwise to draw definite conclusions from a game against Atlanta's great defense and with starting MLB Jeremiah Trotter out, but these were problem areas for the Eagles last year, too. Donovan McNabb had an awful game, and I'd like to see him tuck the ball and run once in a while.
6. Kansas City Chiefs [8] — It's easy to look at Chad Pennington's six fumbles, Curtis Martin's 2.9 yards per carry, and Trent Green's 66.2 passer rating, and say the Chiefs won with defense. Offseason additions Pat Surtain and Sammy Knight contributed an interception and a sack, respectively, while first-round draft choice Derrick Johnson led the team in tackles and added a sack. KC's defense has clearly improved, but the offense isn't done yet. The Chiefs' scoring drives went an average of 61 yards, and the team leads the NFL in all of the following rushing categories: average per attempt, TDs, first downs, and runs of the 20 yards or more. They've already got some injury problems, so an impressive first week yields a modest jump in the Rankings.
7. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Had their chances against Indianapolis. If Chris McAlister or Ed Reed comes up with the interceptions they dropped in the first half, Baltimore might have won the game. When the Ravens fell behind and started asking their offensive line, which excels at run-blocking, to pass-block against the Colts' defensive front, which specializes at rushing the passer, things started to get ugly. They finished getting ugly when Brian Billick refused to accept Tony Dungy's sportsmanship, calling timeouts and an onside kick instead of letting the Colts run the final 1:41 off the board.
8. Minnesota Vikings [6] — The offense won't be that bad again all season, and the defense showed a lot of promise. My biggest concern is the lack of a running game. The Vikings have Super Bowl aspirations this year, and you don't get to the big game without a rushing attack.
9. Carolina Panthers [3] — Kris Jenkins is out for the season again, and that's a major loss. I'm not prepared to give up on Carolina yet, but Sunday's loss to the Saints was an awfully disheartening sign. The Panthers need more big plays from their defense, and someone besides Steve Smith will have to step up in the receiving corps.
10. Buffalo Bills [14] — Domination. (dom'i na'shen) n. 38:15 time of possession, 2½ times as many yards as your opponent, five sacks, three interceptions, 1.0 yard per pass attempt against.
11. Detroit Lions [12] — Those oft-mentioned first-round receivers (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams) combined for four catches for 47 yards and one TD. Marcus Pollard alone had five catches for 58 and a TD. The big credit for Sunday's win, of course, goes to the defense that held Green Bay to three points.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [13] — If they beat Buffalo next week, I may move the Bucs into the top 10, but for now, they only advance one spot. Tampa probably can't play much better than it did on Sunday, and I believe I had this team ranked properly last week. It has my gratitude for making me look smart.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Byron Leftwich and Jimmy Smith connected for a lot of yardage, but all credit to the defense on this one. The Jags picked off Matt Hasselbeck three times and held Shaun Alexander to 73 total yards and no touchdowns.
14. New York Jets [7] — Last week, I claimed that "for now, everyone is healthy and the Jets should be able to play with anybody." By "everyone," I meant except Chad Pennington. And by "anybody," I meant college teams.
15. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — Cincinnati's big three of Carson Palmer (26 completions in 34 attempts), Rudi Johnson (126 rushing yards and a TD), and Chad Johnson (9 catches for 91 yards) had a nice game and the defense produced three turnovers. They've got an interesting test at home against Minnesota next week.
16. New Orleans Saints [23] — Not to rain on their stunning, emotional win in Carolina, but I'm still not sold on the Saints. I really liked the way they finished last season, and I was prepared to like them this year, but my memories of the Bears playing in Champaign (and dropping from 13-3 to 4-12) are still too fresh. New Orleans has its first home game on Monday, in New Jersey. I think the Saints will win that game, but they can't last the season moving around so much.
17. Dallas Cowboys [19] — Drew Bledsoe got sacked four times, but completed 75% of his passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Anthony Henry had a nice game. The cornerback tandem of Henry and Terence Newman gives the Cowboys a defensive backfield that is unnecessarily good for the receiver-weak NFC East.
18. San Diego Chargers [11] — After their first offensive drive, I was punching myself in the head for ranking the Chargers outside the top 10. Drew Brees looked good and the Cowboys couldn't stop LaDainian Tomlinson. They'll probably rebound a bit next week when Antonio Gates returns, but offense wasn't really the problem against Dallas.
19. Seattle Seahawks [18] — Maybe the recent hospitalization of defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes can explain the problems on defense Sunday, but I don't think Hasselbeck's regression to Rick Mirer levels can be traced to Rhodes. Mike Holmgren might have something to do with it.
20. New York Giants [28] — The defense did a nice number on Arizona, but there's really no way around this: Eli Manning sucks. I meant to rank Washington ahead of New York last week, but now I like the Giants better, so it works out.
21. Miami Dolphins [27] — The Dolphins won the most surprising game of the NFL's opening weekend, demolishing the highly-regarded Broncos. The defense was superb, and the offense moved the ball when it had to, converting eight of 15 third downs. The Broncos made only one out of 12.
22. Washington Redskins [29] — Outplayed the Bears to a degree the 9-7 score doesn't reflect, gaining twice as many yards and holding an 8:30 edge in time of possession. Washington got a couple of big plays out of Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, but it would be nice to see more consistency and fewer mistakes.
23. Denver Broncos [15] — Jake Plummer was atrocious and every break went Miami's way. The Broncos have a chance to rebound with a big divisional game against San Diego in Week 2.
24. Green Bay Packers [21] — Brett Favre had three turnovers and Ahman Green had a zillion yards called back on penalties. The Pack totaled 14 fouls for 100 yards and six Detroit first downs. After giving up only 14 sacks all of last season, Green Bay allowed three against the Lions this weekend. It's too early to say for sure that the wheels have come off, but it's a bad start.
25. Houston Texans [20] — All I saw of the Buffalo game was highlights, but I can read stat sheets, and here's David Carr's passing column: 9-for-21, 70 yards, 3 INT. That doesn't even include the five sacks and lost fumble. I don't know how much of that was Carr's fault, but he's got to start producing soon.
26. St. Louis Rams [22] — So I'm looking at the numbers, and I have no idea how this happened. Twenty-six first downs to 12. Forty minutes to 20 time of possession. Eight out of 20 third downs converted against one of seven. 405 yards to 217. The Rams were on the good side of all those numbers. They even won the turnover battle.
27. Oakland Raiders [26] — Randy Moss had a nice debut in silver and black, but the defense managed zero sacks and interceptions against the Patriots, and 16 penalties is bad even when the officials are flag-happy.
28. Arizona Cardinals [24] — The defense really wasn't bad, but the offense and special teams were terrible. The Cardinals' coverage on Willie Ponder's kick return TD was one of the ugliest things I saw all weekend. As for the offense, all you need to know is that Kurt Warner led the team in rushing.
29. Tennessee Titans [25] — We knew the defense would be bad, but not that bad. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh's third-string RB, averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Roethlisberger averaged 19.8 yards per pass (7 is good) and had a perfect passer rating. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee had four turnovers, three sacks, and 3½ scoreless quarters. The personnel just isn't there.
30. San Francisco 49ers [32] — Mike Adams, Julian Peterson, and Bryant Young combined for six sacks and an interception. Even Tim Rattay had a nice game, but that won't happen against teams with real head coaches.
31. Cleveland Browns [30] — Didn't get blown out, just quietly lost. They're at Green Bay next week, and if the Browns win, the NFC has to forfeit this year's Pro Bowl.
32. Chicago Bears [31] — In one remarkable stretch in the second half, Chicago committed three consecutive false starts. When they finally got a play off, Kyle Orton got sacked, then Muhsin Muhammad dropped a pass.