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Last Year
An up-and-down season finished up for St. Louis as they made a trip to the second round of the playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks may have won the battle of winning the division, but the Rams won the war by defeating their neighboring rival three times, including a meeting in the postseason. Inconsistency, game management, and defense were persistent issues for the Rams, but those issues will always hinder the Rams from success while Mike Martz is the head coach.
What We Learned From Last Year
There are not many coaches in the NFL that are as careless as Mike Martz and his slapdash demeanor has seeped into the on-field product of his team.
Last year, the Rams had enough talent to finish at least 10-6 in a conference that featured only four winning teams, yet somehow they slid to 8-8.
Not somehow, there are many reasons for it.
The carelessness is best displayed by the team's league-worst (-24) turnover ratio. While it is true that the defense was abysmal and only forced 15 takeaways, the offense was extremely reckless with the ball.
They finished fourth in the league in giveaways with 22 interceptions and 17 fumbles.
The Rams are in pretty dreadful company when you look at the teams that posted comparable numbers. For interceptions, only Miami and Dallas threw more and for fumbles, Chicago, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay are the only teams who finished with more.
But those teams were all extremely offensively-challenged. Dallas, Miami, and Chicago didn't have starting quarterbacks while Cleveland and San Francisco were overall disasters.
Yes, Chris Chandler and his eight interceptions did inflate the interception total, but Mike Martz's mysterious obsession with passing the ball was also a factor.
The Rams had as many pass attempts as teams like Miami and Oakland, but the difference was that they actually had reliable running backs that could play. In other words, while the Dolphins and Raiders were forced into passing (because of the lack of a legitimate running back), the Rams just did it by choice.
And that is exactly the type of Mike Martz conundrum that no one will ever understand.
Last year, they drafted a running back in the first-round of the draft — which was a questionable move to begin with since Marshall Faulk was still on the roster and the defense was clearly talent-deficient — but let us just say, for argument's sake, that it was a good idea.
So now the Rams had two high-quality running backs.
Question: why the heck did they have the third-least amount of rushing attempts in the NFL last year?
Steven Jackson was NFL-ready from day one and did not need much time to mature. If the Rams wanted to pound him or Marshall Faulk all year long, they could have. Instead, they foolishly stuck with the pass.
In the last three years, the Rams have ranked 30th, 28th, and 32nd in rush attempts, which simply does not make sense.
The Rams were in the second round of the playoffs last year, but more of it had to do with luck than success. Aside from the Seattle Seahawks, who can't seem to defeat the Rams, St. Louis beat only one quality opponent.
They defeated San Francisco twice, Arizona, Tampa Bay, a Philadelphia team without any of its starters, and barely scraped by the New York Jets in Week 17.
That the Rams offensive line was one of the weakest in the NFL was a big misconception. Orlando Pace is a Pro Bowler, while Adam Timmerman and center Andy McCollum are good starters. But any offensive line will wear down if they are constantly in pass protection. Running the ball lets them grind the defense into the ground instead of forcing them to sustain for long periods of time.
Sure, the defense was a setback every game, but the key note to bring into the coming season was Martz's questionable emphasis on passing the ball and his incomprehensible choice to shy away from the run.
This Year
For a defense already short of talent, losing starting cornerback Jerametrius Butler to a season-ending injury is crippling. Last year's defense only had six interceptions and he had five of them.
Travis Fisher and DeJuan Groce will start, but both are not good enough to start. Fisher is undersized and is easily exploited by tall receivers. Groce is also short and can be beaten on deep routes. Kevin Garrett is more of the same. Rookie Ronald Bartell is the team's only cornerback taller than 5-10.
Last year, St. Louis was used as a treadmill by opposing running backs and will hope that that problem can be solved in-house. Damione Lewis, Ryan Pickett, and Jimmy Kennedy are all defensive tackles that were selected in the first-round who will be counted on.
Pickett had his best season last year and looked to be a good run-stuffer, but he came to training camp overweight this year and hurt his back. This is an injury that will linger and affect his play. Lewis has been a bust, which leaves Kennedy to hold the fort. He came on strong at the end of the season, but is still inconsistent. Nonetheless, the coaching staff is expecting big things from him.
Defensive end Leonard Little is still the only dominant player on the line and the team will look to Anthony Hargrove to replace Bryce Fisher in the role opposite of Little.
The linebackers have significantly improved as Dexter Coakley and Chris Claiborne are welcomed as free agents. With Pisa Tinoisamoa on the outside, this is definitely the strength of the defense. Claiborne is used to dealing with a lot of blockers, so he is a fit for this defense. Coakley, on the other hand, is not and is coming off of a rough season. There will be plenty of tackles to go around for this trio.
Adam Archuleta is a playmaker at strong safety, but free safety will be an Achilles heel.
Depth is a pressing concern everywhere. Although the defense is just as porous as last year's, we all know that the offense is the bread and butter.
The team spent their first-round pick on an offensive tackle to shore up the protection for Marc Bulger, which is an astute decision considering how much they throw the ball. Alex Barron is expected to start at right tackle, but he has been less than impressive in the preseason. Orlando Pace, Adam Timmerman, and Andy McCollum return and rookie Claude Terrell will start at left guard. Veteran guard Tom Nutten is back from retirement and versatile linemen Rex Tucker and Blaine Saipaia provide some decent depth.
Well, the line is sturdy and there is a young buck running back ready to blossom, but will Martz run the ball?
The wide receiving corps is as deep as it has been in a long time, so the signs don't exactly point to yes.
Dane Looker, Shaun McDonald, and Kevin Curtis are all good enough to exploit nickel and dime backs, which will tempt Martz call passing plays.
But if the Rams are to be a real contender, they will need to run the ball consistently, milk the clock, and keep their defense off the field.
Bulger looks to be in for a career year, but if the running game is not fully employed, then this team will not be successful.
Considering the defense ranked last in the league in turnovers a season ago and could equal that feat again, offensive turnovers need to be minimized.
Overall, this is just not a well-run football team outside of the passing game. The potential to be a serious competitor is there if they change their ways, but Martz is stubborn.
They better find a way to win on the road or 8-8 will be a good season.
Over/Under: 8.5
In the six road games that the Rams lost last year, their average margin of defeat was just under 20 points. Matter of fact, they have only won seven of their last 24 road games. The better teams in the league find a way to win away from their cozy confines and St. Louis needs to do the same if they plan on competing. They play: TEN, @NYG, @IND, NO, JAX, @HOU, WAS, @MIN, PHI, and @DAL.
Fantasy Sleeper
There's no question that Steven Jackson is going to be an NFL superstar, it just depends on how big of a workload Mike Martz will give him. Marshall Faulk has asked to be the backup, so don't worry about splitting carries. Jackson has a unique blend of power and speed and will run wild as defenses are loosened up by the passing game.
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