Let me state from the outset that readers should in no way make judgments of any consequence, financial or otherwise, based on what follows. This is simply my guesstimates about what might happen in the NFL this year. I will freely admit that it is based more on my gut instinct that any scientific research.
And, let's face it, football is a cruel mistress and anything can, and usually will, happen when grown men throw themselves across the field at each other. Prognosticators beware is what I am saying.
With that caveat out of the way, let's get started. Below you will find my predictions as to who will win each division in the AFC. Next week, I will tackle the NFC.
AFC East
This is traditionally a very competitive division. It isn't rare to see a playoff-caliber team fail to make the playoffs. Given the dominance of the New England Patriots in recent years, one has to see them as the favorite. I won't argue. I think the Patriots will win the division.
If there is one constant in the NFL, it is change. And all of these teams will have to adjust the changes the offseason brought them. I just think New England has the most stability at key positions and the ability to make the talent they have work.
The world champions lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators. This is the wildcard, as it can't be easy to deal with that kind of change. But they have Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady leading the offense. Add a healthy Corey Dillon, a solid receiver core, and a reloaded defense, and it gets hard to bet against them. If the Pats can keep their team chemistry among the changes, look for them to make a serious run at another title. Dynasty indeed.
The Rest
* The New York Jets have a bad taste in their mouth from last year. A few missed field goals separated them from the championship game. Doug Brien is gone and they have Ohio State hero — and second round draft pick - Mike Nugent kicking. Chad Pennington's arm is healthy and the indefatigable Curtis Martin returns with ex-Chief Derrick Blaylock as backup. Laveraneus Coles is back from his side trip to Washington and Justin McCareins is poised to live up to his potential under new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's more aggressive system. The Jets could push the Pats for the division, but I think Pennington and the offense will struggle to get in sync with the new system.
* The Buffalo Bills could also give the champs a run, but I have a hard time picking a J.P. Losman led team to win the division. The Bills will try to duplicate the Steelers' plan last year: tough defense, strong running game, limited pressure on your young QB. With a tough defense, solid special teams, and weapons like Willis McGahee, Eric Moulds, and Lee Evans, they might just pull it off. Count me cynical, however, as I don't think lightening strikes twice. It is a good thing Losman is mobile because he might be running for his life.
* Miami has a new coach in Nick Saban and hopefully a new attitude after last year's debacle. They brought back Ricky Williams and drafted Ronnie Brown, but I just can't pick a team whose QB prospects are A.J. Feeley and Gus Ferrote. Plus, the defense is getting old and switching schemes (from 4-3 to 3-4).
AFC North
Here we come to the home of my beloved Pittsburgh Steelers. It is still hard to believe that the boys from Steel Town won 15 games with a rookie QB. Of course, they got beat up by the eventual champions at home again, so miracles only go so far. The difference between winning and losing is a thin line in the NFL as illustrated by the Steelers' 6-10 record in 2003 as compared to the 15-1 record of last year. I still think the Steelers are the team to beat in the AFC North in 2005.
They haven't lit it up in the preseason and the starting offense hasn't scored a touchdown. But the defense and special teams have looked very sharp. Sure, the Steelers lost big man wide-out Plaxico Burress and both Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis are dinged up. But I believe the Steelers' offense will find its rhythm and get the job done.
Hines Ward will continue to be the clutch go-to guy. Cedric Wilson has impressed people with his quickness and route running and should give a boost to the receiving core. Plus, rookies Heath Miller, Nate Washington, and Fred Gibson all show signs of being able to contribute quickly. Willie Parker will provide the spark in the running game and give Staley and Bettis time to get healthy. Roethlisberger won't necessarily turn into Joe Montana, but he should be a little sharper and a little wiser as the season progresses. With aggressive defense and special teams play, the Steelers will once again put Ben in a position where he just has to play smart to win. Look for 10 or 11 wins and the division title.
The Rest
* The Baltimore Ravens are hoping that Kyle Boller can have a season like Roethlisberger did last year. The Ravens defense has been carrying the team for years and the running game is usually solid. The passing game simply hasn't been there. They've added Derrick Mason and drafted Mark Clayton (and Todd Heap returns healthy) but I still don't see Kyle Boller as the answer. I wouldn't be surprised if the defense struggled at times, as well. They are aging and changing schemes.
* A lot of folks will probably pick the Cincinnati Bengals as a sleeper winner in this division. I don't see it this year. Sure, they will have a strong offense with the evolving Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Rudi Johnson. But in this division, you must run and stop the run to win. The Bengal defense is still suspect in my mind. If the defense can't get the ball back for the offense, all that talent is wasted.
* As much as it saddens me to say it, I am confident that Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage will turn the Cleveland Brown franchise around. Just not this year. Things are just too unsettled and there isn't enough mature talent on the field. The Browns might have their future in Braylon Edwards and Charlie Frye but this year is likely to be a rough one.
AFC South
The Indianapolis Colts have enough offensive weapons. About that there is no doubt. Peyton Manning has three quality receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley each had 1,000-yard seasons) and a solid running back in Edgerin James. Tight end Dallas Clark looks to stay healthy and live up to his potential. That is a lot of targets and Manning has shown he knows how to use them. I say this is enough to win the division.
No, the perennial question is defense. Can the Colts stop teams enough to outscore them? Another offseason has passed without any big name improvements, but they are deeper and have some young talent. They have added another tough Big 10 guy in the secondary in Marlin Jackson and Mike Doss is as tough as they come. Will it be enough to make it to the Super Bowl? Who knows, but it should be fun to watch.
The Rest
* The Jacksonville Jaguars are almost the mirror opposite of the Colts — who they beat twice last year. They have a stingy defense and solid special teams, but lack consistency on offense. They brought in a new offensive coordinator and look to go vertical more often. Byron Leftwich will be looking to go deep to youngsters like Reggie Williams and college-QB-turned-receiver Matt Jones. Both have the physical talent, but have yet to prove it in the pros. The Jags hope veteran Jimmy Smith can lead the way. They might have trouble in the running game because who wants to bet whether Fred Taylor makes it through the season? That's what I thought. The Jags are tough, but I am not sure they have it together enough to take the division.
* The Houston Texans have some talent with QB David Carr, RB Domanick Davis, and WR Andre Johnson, but the questions is whether they are tough enough. Until I see some consistent talent and effort on the offensive and defensive lines, I don't think they can go very far. Entertaining at times? Yes, but not playoff-caliber yet.
* After coming inches short of Super Bowl win, the Titans have faded into a mediocre team. Steve McNair has been the walking wounded and what used to be a veteran led and smash mouth team is now a young and weak team. McNair might be healthy and Travis Henry might give them a boost in the running game, but this team isn't ready for prime time.
AFC West
Here is the pertinent question: whose defense will step up and make a difference in this division? There is no question that the teams in know how to score points, but they haven't been able to stop opposing offenses when it counts. Picking a winner in this field isn't easy, but I am going to go out on a limb and say the Oakland Raiders win the division.
There is always a chance that the unstable Randy Moss will do something to undermine his success at his new home in Oakland. But on paper, the Raiders look dangerous on offense. Say what you will about Kerry Collins, but he can throw the ball deep. And in Moss, Jerry Porter, and Ronald Curry, he has the weapons to do it. Add in Lamont Jordon to run the ball, and the offense looks solid. I don't think the defense will be the best in the league, but I have a feeling they will have better chemistry and a better game plan with the newly-installed 4-3. I think they will do just enough better on offense and defense to win the division.
The Rest
* The Kansas City Chiefs can score a lot of points, too. Trent Green loves to throw it around and with tight end Tony Gonzalez and Priest Holmes has some talent around him. The Chiefs brought in Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtein to the secondary to toughen things up and rookie Derrick Johnson should be a star. I think the Chiefs will be marginally better on defense, as well, but I give the offensive edge to Oakland.
* The Denver Broncos tried to improve on defense by importing the Cleveland Browns' defensive line. Excuse me if I am less than impressed. The Broncos will probably run the ball well again with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, but Jake Plummer and Ashlie Lelie are just too erratic these days. I think the Chiefs and Raiders come out ahead.
* What about last year's surprising division winner the San Diego Chargers? Hard to say. Drew Brees is solid and LaDamlian Tomlinson is a power by himself. Antonio Gates and Keenan McCardell aren't slouches, either. This team might be the West Coast version of the Patriots in that they have consistency and unity as a team. If Brees can pick up where he left off last year, and if the defense can stiffen, I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers make another run. They have the most balanced team in the division and they are the reigning champs, but I just have a sense that the Raiders are going to get hot.
So there you have it, folks: Patriots, Steelers, Colts, and Raiders for the AFC divisional winners. Check back next week for the NFC.
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