With the beginning of September, we enter Pennant Race Season, Rookie Call-Up Season, and, yes, Award Speculation Season. If your team's pennant race is over, it doesn't mean the fun is gone until October. Who doesn't enjoy debating the "true intent" of the MVP Award? And who doesn't afford the meaning of "value" the same scrutiny as the proclamations of the Founding Fathers? That's what I thought.
In that spirit, it's time to examine one of this year's tightest award races: the National League Cy Young.
Take a look at any list of NL pitching leaders and three names come to the fore with regularity: Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, and Roger Clemens.
All three have had outstanding seasons to this point, and each has earned the right to be recognized for his work this year. Nonetheless, I'm inclined at this point (keeping in mind that there are still four weeks to go in the season, and the picture could change a bit in that time) to narrow this to a two-man race between Carpenter and Clemens.
The reason is pretty simple. Each of these three guys has a particular strength that makes him stand out from the rest of the pack. For Clemens, it's obviously the ERA. If the season ended as of this writing, Clemens' 1.57 would be the lowest single-season figure since Greg Maddux's 1.56 in 1994. Oh, by the way — the mound was a little higher when Maddux did it.
For Carpenter and Willis, the eye-catcher is the high win total, combined with an outstanding winning percentage. Carpenter won his 20th game the other night, and Willis is currently sitting on 19 with an excellent chance for 20+. In terms of the Cy Young, though, Willis' problem is that his biggest strength is the same as Carpenter's, and Carpenter just plays that game better. On wins, it's 20-19, Carpenter. Losses? Carpenter's 4 to Dontrelle's 6. Complete games are now 7-6, Carpenter.
So, it's Carpenter vs. Clemens.
In the actual voting, Carpenter is almost a shoe-in. As a rule, wins trump all when it comes to the Cy Young, but who should win this year's award? Let's try to find out.
Of course, Carpenter blows Clemens away in the wins category, but it's hard to think that this comparison is a fair representation of the way that each has pitched this year. Both have started 28 games. Clemens has 24 quality starts to Carpenter's 25, and Clemens' ERA is over half a run better, but he has nine fewer wins and two more losses to show for his work. How much of that is bad luck?
Well, of Carpenter's 25 quality starts (starts in which he pitched at least six innings and surrendered three or fewer earned runs), 20, or 80 percent, became wins. Of Clemens' 24 quality starts, 10 (about 42 percent) became wins. Part of that difference stems from the fact that Carpenter has finished seven games, while Clemens has completed one. The bullpen has surrendered three of Clemens' leads over the course of the season, while Carpenter has gone deep enough in most games that it hasn't been a factor. Carpenter has earned that high win rate in quality starts.
At the same time, 42 percent is a ridiculously low rate for Clemens. What about 60 percent? Does it seem fair that the average pitcher would win 60 percent of the games in which he gives up three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings? It does to me, so we'll look at Clemens' record with that rate inserted: 15-6.
A big part of the problem for Clemens has been a lack of run support. While Carpenter has been the pitcher of record this year, the Cardinals have scored an average of 5.25 runs, while Clemens has seen just 3.61 runs cross the plate during his starts. In addition, the Astros' run support has been clumpy. Clemens has one cheap win to his credit, in which he surrendered five runs over six innings, but still got the win. On the other side of the coin, however, he has lost five quality starts, while Carpenter has lost just two such games.
The kicker, though, are the shutouts. Clemens has left an incredible 10 games in which he has held the opposition scoreless. He has won a grand total of four. Four! (Carpenter has shut out the opposition four times, as well, winning all four times.) Clemens has been on the losing end of five 1-0 scores. Carpenter's Cardinals have only been shut out once during his starts (4-0 vs. Boston). If we award Clemens a win in 70 percent of his shutouts (once again, this seems extremely fair), we're looking at three more wins for Clemens. His record is now 18-6 to Carpenter's 20-4, for those of you keeping score at home.
Some other things to think about: Clemens has left seven games with his team trailing, and has lost six of those. Carpenter has left six games trailing, losing three.
After accounting for their win-loss differences, let's look at a few other factors. Carpenter has finished seven games this year, with four shutouts. That certainly counts for something. On Clemens' side, he has been slightly more dominant than Carpenter when he has been in the game. At age 43, his pitch counts have been too high for him to finish a lot of games, but his strikeout rate is better than Carpenter's, and he's surrendered 41 fewer hits and 21 fewer earned runs.
Ultimately, I believe it comes down to how much value you place on playing for a winning team. The Cardinals will cruise to the playoffs and possibly to the National League crown. The Astros will be playing golf in October. The big question is how much responsibility we can assign to Carpenter for the Cardinals' success. Would they be significantly worse without him?
This is a tough question, and it's beyond the scope of what I want to do here. I will say this, however. Of Carpenter's 20 wins, just four have come in games where the Cardinals scored three runs or fewer. In other words, a lot of his wins have come in games that a lot of guys could have won. As for those three nail-biters, the Cardinals currently sport a 13.5-game lead on the Astros in the NL Central.
Carpenter's been great, but he hasn't been the difference between the Cardinals making the postseason or not, nor has he been the difference between a tight pennant race and the laugher you see before you. So, before we toast Carpenter as the Cy Young winner based on his "winning team" credentials, let's not forget that this is a pretty good team without him.
Ultimately, Carpenter should start clearing out space on his mantel for some upcoming hardware, but don't be fooled — Clemens has a stronger case than most will admit.
September 6, 2005
kara:
Do you realize how biased your article is?
For example, you make this incredible statement “The kicker, though, are the shutouts. Clemens has left an incredible 10 games in which he has held the opposition scoreless.” Those are not shut outs. Clemens hasn’t pitched a single 9-inning shut out this year. Why are you implying otherwise?
You make an enormous effort to explain away Clemens lack of wins, but you make no effort to explain Carpenter’s higher ERA. You might have mentioned that if not for a single game in April, Carpenters ERA would be 1.88, much closer to Clemens. 1.57.
You claim that with better run support Clemens would win more games, but you fail to mention that Clemens’ teammates, Pettitte and Oswalt, who suffer with the same offense, have won 14 and 16 games respectively. If Clemens is having such a historically great season, why can he not match the win totals of his own teammates?
Why does Clemens get less run support than other Astro pitchers? Do you suppose that Astro hitters don’t try as hard when Clemens pitches? Do you think that Clemens has faced a tougher level of competition than Pettitte or Oswalt? Or do you think that Clemens lack of run support is just bad luck? If so, isn’t it just as likely that his ERA is the result of good luck?
Did it ever occur to you that Clemens ERA and his lack of run support may be related phenomenons? Perhaps Clemens is working in an inordinate number of games with umpires that have large strike zones. Wouldn’t that explain Clemens ERA, his lack of run support and his low win total?
September 6, 2005
Jake:
I do believe the author’s point was to explain that Clemens is having a pheneomenal season, despite an average record. Due mostly in part to the fact he has gotten awful run support, and pitiful bullpen support after leaving a game.
This doesn’t necessarily display bias, as much as it does logic. If you were to trade pitchers, and Carpenter were on the Astros, and Clemens on the Cardinals, I would bet very large sums of money you’d see Clemens with 20+ wins with a similar ERA, and Carpeneter with much fewer wins, and a higher ERA, having to face the Cardinal offense a number of times during the season.
September 7, 2005
Jeremy:
The biggest reason that Carpenter is having a better season wasn’t touched on very much…and it is 23.2 more innings pitched for Carp. This also greatly explains the win differential, the fact that Carpenter consistently goes deeper into games means that Carpenter doesn’t leave his possibility of getting a win up to the bullpen as does Clemens. The Astros bullpen is 4th best in the NL, so they aren’t bad, but if Clemens stayed longer in games as Carpenter did, the excuse of the bullpen blowing games would not be a worry, as it is not a worry in St. Louis when Carpenter starts a game.
September 8, 2005
Jake:
That is more of a factor of age, which is why Carpeneter is the favorite for the award. Being younger allows for a higher consistent pitch count, which means more potential innings. Unless you’re throwing 15 or less pitches an inning, you’re not gonna go past 6 innings when you’re 43 years old.
But you are indeed right Jeremy, I too overlooked that.