Eagle-eyed readers of Slant Pattern will have noticed that I have not, as in previous years, posted a conference-by-conference college football preview this year.
I figure, let someone else be wrong about everything. Besides, the college football prognosticating duties around here have been ably assumed by Avery Smith, although next year I hope he goes ahead and gives a preview of every team in the conference he's writing up.
The Big 10 is my cup of tea, anyway ... I was just winging my way through the other conferences. Here's how I see the Big 10 shaping up:
1) Ohio State (8-0; 11-0)
I am an OSU alum, but this is the first time I am picking the Buckeyes to win the Big 10 — I'm not being a homer, I promise. Experience on both lines, consensus best linebacking corps in the country, top-10 consensus secondary, big weapons at receiver, an underrated tailback in Antonio Pittman (he picked up 5.3 yards per carry last year, so I'm not sure why people contend the Buckeyes are lacking in that area), and finished huge last year, blowing out Michigan and Oklahoma State, putting up tons of points. What more do you want?
2) Iowa (7-1; 10-1)
If Kirk Ferentz stays in Iowa City for a long time, and all indications are that he will, get used to the big two in the conference becoming the big three. The Hawkeyes should be able to post their fourth consecutive 10-win season, and this will be the first one in that span where they return their quarterback, another big tribute to Ferentz. If Ohio State doesn't have the best linebackers in the country, then Iowa does.
3) Michigan (6-2; 9-2)
The possibility of a three-way tie atop the Big 10 is quite possible, because Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa all have one home game and one road game against the other two, and I haven't even gotten to Purdue yet. If they stay in through their senior seasons, Chad Henne and Mike Hart might be even more decorated and honored and Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. Their secondary, porous last season, probably will not improve enough to get them the Big 10 crown.
4) Purdue (6-2; 8-3)
Purdue is a popular pick to take the Big 10 this year. Ask those pickers why, and the first words out of their mouth will always be, "their schedule." Yes, this is a damn easy schedule; no Ohio State or Michigan, and Iowa at home. Yes, Purdue is talented and experienced (18 starters back, including all 11 defensive starters). But you just can't ride an easy schedule all the way to the promised land. Well, you can, but it's never the teams or the easy schedules the pundits think it will be. Purdue's experience and schedule will only serve to bump them a bit above the rest of the pack.
5) Penn State (4-4; 7-4)
If any team has the ability to crack the four horsemen, it's Penn State. You can't score on them. They probably won't score on you, either, although Nittany faithful are very excited about quarterback Michael Robinson and all-star recruit Derrick Williams. It feels weird and sacrilegious to say, but I don't trust Joe Paterno to be able to pull off a big season anymore.
6) Wisconsin (4-4; 7-5)
I may be underestimating the mojo that will be created by the fact that this is Barry Alvarez's final year on the sideline, but the top four of the Big 10 will gobble up so many wins that the middling teams of the Big 10 might be slightly worse for wear. Alvarez is the best coach in the conference. Wisconsin was Indiana-esque when he took over. But this edition of the Badgers put up only 328 yards of offense per game last year and will be doing a lot of auditioning on defense.
7) Minnesota (3-5; 6-5)
It's getting to the point that you can write the same preview for Minnesota every single year: ferocious, multi-headed running attack, no other great units, cupcake schedule, minor bowl. Rinse and repeat. It's not changing this year.
8) Michigan State (3-5; 5-6)
In order to improve on last year's bowl-free disappointment, the Spartans might be well advised to throw, throw, throw in the three yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Big 10. Drew Stanton deserves mention as possibly the league's best quarterback, and he has three excellent targets: Matt Trannon, Kyle Brown, and Jerramy Scott. That still might not be enough if Michigan State continues to be spastic (losses to Rutgers, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech in the last two years).
9) Northwestern (2-6; 3-8)
Every year, I stick up for Northwestern. They've established themselves as a .500 team in the Big 10 over the last several years, including big wins over both Ohio State and Michigan, but the previews read the same every year: this is the year the Wildcats fall back to the basement. They have enough offensive firepower to prevent it, but I suspect the naysayers are finally right this year. The schedule (Northern Illinois, Arizona State, all of the teams I've ranked in the top five of the conference in this preview) just won't grant them any traction.
10) Illinois (1-7; 2-9)
What an embarrassing football program for the flagship school of one of the most populous states in the country. It will be interesting to see if Ron Zook can get Illinois back to the top — I honestly don't have a guess — but this year will be more of the same in Champaign. Best thing going for them: running back tandem of E.B. Halsey and Pierre Thomas.
11) Indiana (0-8, 2-9)
Due to the advent of ESPNU and CSTV (College Sports Television), it's almost easy to get televised nationally if you're a major conference program, especially if you schedule your game at an odd time, like a Friday at 8 PM. And thus, Indiana's opener against Central Michigan will be available on ESPNU for Hoosier fans from sea to shining sea. And I encourage them all to fire up the popcorn, crack open a Dos Equis, and watch this game. Make it your bowl game. 'Cause it's the only televised game Indiana is going to win this year.
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