AL Pennant: Yanks’ For the Taking?

It's top billing on the Boston social calendar. It's Mardi Gras and Cinco de Maio rolled into October, only without the punctuality. After all, it's been canceled 26 times in the last 102 years — 28 if you count 1904 and 1994.

Well Beantowners, start your guest lists if you must, select your color schemes, but be advised not to set a date for this year's Yankee Elimination Party quite yet.

It might not come.

For much of the 2005 season, the anomalous play of The Evil Empire has stirred the imagination of both Yankee haters and neutral fans that wonder what a postseason without the New York Yankees might be like.

They've inspired the conjecture of partisan analysts and chic media personalities who have been like so many coroners looking to pronounce death over the New York Yankee corpse since May. Among their ranks are talk show hosts from New York's WFAN and Boston's WEEI; writers from the New York Daily News, Newark Star-Ledger, Hartford Courant, and Boston's Globe and Herald; and nationally-syndicated columnists on ESPN and Sports Illustrated.

Even loyal Yankee fans have at times conceded them to be the 21st century's version of the 1959 club whose mediocre season was sandwiched between nine pennants and four World Series championships over a 10-year period.

In short, predicting the demise of the New York Yankees is hip in 2005.

As my luck goes, I've never been hip. I'm not of the in crowd. The lines I stand in are always short. I find myself in a short one now, a weak linking of outcasts who believe the American League's East Division and pennant are the Yankees' for the taking.

All of which has me wondering what the masses know that I don't. What inside information can be convincing enough to concede the division crown to the Boston Red Sox before September begins?

This line I'm in mutates incessantly. Sometimes it grows long, as when Shawn Chacon shuts out the White Sox and fair-weather Yankee fans append our ranks. Then, four bombs off Randy Johnson the next day truncate it sizably. Another shutout by Jaret Wright and the strays are back in.

Much like our line, the 2005 Yankee season has ebbed and flowed. An 11-19 start — their worst since 1966 — cast them into a last-place tie with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on May 6th, nine games behind the then-soaring Baltimore Orioles.

With the Yankee season about to flat-line, schedule makers dialed up the paramedics dressed in green and yellow smocks. If you're from the Bronx, it's frightening to think what spring would be like without a vernal resuscitation by the Oakland Athletics.

A year after sweeping the A's to start an eight-game winning streak that righted a bad start, this year's Yanks opened a 10-game streak with back-to-back shutouts over the A's, who contributed five losses in all. That run ultimately extended to 16-2 and landed New York on a 27-21 record.

Nevertheless, they sifted back into mediocrity at 39-39 by July 1st. Then the bats really heated up, pitching woes subsided, and the Yankees have enjoyed a 29-16 run that has brought them to the threshold of the American League postseason once again.

Which brings us to the first reason Bostonians may want to hold off on that non-refundable deposit with the caterer: New York is not that bad.

Since July 1st, the Yankees are among the top of nearly every significant offensive category. Their 76 homers during this stretch have come from seven spots in the batting order. They've been led by both an expected and unexpected source in perennial all-star Alex Rodriguez and embattled first baseman Jason Giambi, each with 16.

New York has scored at least six runs 22 times over the last 45 games, winning 19. Perhaps of greater relief to Yankee fans, the maligned pitching corps has seemingly turned the corner, holding opponents to four or fewer runs 26 times, going 21-5 in the process.

As this year's trading deadline loomed, New York's team ERA was 4.66, their starting rotation was in disarray with three starters on the DL, and middle relief was so suspect that the acquisition of Red Sox castoff Alan Embree was regarded as an improvement.

Late-July additions of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon, followed by Jaret Wright's return to duty, have patched the starting rotation. Chacon is arguably this season's best deadline move outside of Florida's retention of A.J. Burnett, pitching effectively in all five starts since coming to the Bronx. Since the trading deadline, Yankee team ERA is 3.56, a drop of more than a full run per nine innings.

In this year's pennant race, New York's fate need not rest solely in its own hands. Which brings us to the second reason they can win: Boston is not that good.

If the Yankee season can be labeled as streaky, then Boston's is no less than a Six Flags ride.

By the season's second week, the Sox were into their first hot streak, going 7-1. The very next day began a 1-5 stretch. This ended with an 11-3 run that fizzled out at 3-8. All this in the course of 39 games.

In June, the Red Sox surged into first place with a 12-1 run that was erased with a 6-12 stretch on either side of the All-Star Break. A 14-2 mark carried them into August before they opened their current 10-game road trip with four losses in the first six games.

Such inconsistent play is certainly worth a few swinging chads in the American League East election, but it is also symptomatic of problems that run as deep as The Big Dig deficit.

Streaky play is synonymous with the Big-Bat, Bad-Arm syndrome that has plagued both the Yankees and Red Sox, the latter much more acutely.

As good as the Yankee lineup is, Boston's is better, at least statistically. Their 5.7 runs per game leads the majors, as does their .284 batting average and .360 on-base percentage.

However, unlike in New York, Boston's pitching is still broke. Staff ERA has jumped from 4.71 before the trading deadline to 5.35 in the month of August. Their bullpen owns the worst ERA and second-lowest strikeout total per nine innings in the American League and this is not a defensive team you want balls hit into play against.

In team defense, they rank 26th. Shortstop Edgar Renteria leads the majors with 23 errors. The fielding exploits of Kevin Millar and Manny Ramirez — which often don't show up in the box score — are aired for the entertainment of the viewing public nightly.

With Curt Schilling moving back into the rotation, shaky Mike Timlin assuming closing duties, and a large void in setup relief, their staff is more of an enigma now than ever. This, as the Yankees are finding answers.

Ultimately, the American League East will be decided by its own. The Yankees and Red Sox possess the worst divisional records in the East and have 29 and 26 games, respectively, left to play.

Surprisingly, Yankee nemeses have been Baltimore (4-6) and Tampa Bay (4-9), teams they have dominated in prior seasons. The Orioles caught New York early on when they were actually competitive. With eight games remaining between them, the Yankees have a wealth of untapped victories. They will still have to endure the Tampa Bay nightmare for six more games.

On the other hand, Boston has struggled with the Birds every year and 2005 (5-7) is no exception. There won't be many easy ones here. Toronto (3-8) also has their number. Then there's the psychological burden of facing the Angels and Athletics in mid-September while the Yankees play Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Of course, there remain six head-to-head games. While history speaks of the difficulty in overcoming a four-game deficit, the Yankees seem to bide their time confident in this opportunity to make up ground.

Sport is full of irony. How about the West divisional loser clinching the wildcard as New York rolls into Boston three games back for the final regular season series? A three-game sweep, then the tie-breaker — let's see, that makes four straight — would end the Red Sox season. Sound familiar?

Well, okay, that's the division, but elimination comes in playoff form as well, just a little less sweet.

Not so fast. The rest of the American League is not that good.

The Yankees will be hitting the playoffs in peak form. Overcoming Boston would mean a half-season of play at a .650 clip, surely better than anyone else except perhaps Oakland. Concede Chicago the best record and the wildcard draw. That pairs New York with the West divisional winner.

If that's Oakland, it's not worth analyzing. There's no quantifiable way of explaining how Moneyball will succumb once again to the Yankees' experience or the pressure of playoff baseball. It just will. Billy Beane deeded ownership of his fate to the Yankees back in 2000.

The Angels promise an entertaining series, but they'll dissipate in the Bronx as fast as their four-run leads did in consecutive eighth inning collapses there earlier this month. The reason is in the 'pen: the Yankees have one, the Angels don't.

The pennant will go through Chicago, just as New York did last weekend. Save for one inning, they would have come away with a sweep. Over six games, the Yankee staff shut down the White Sox five times. Although the Yanks had trouble scoring themselves, Chicago aces Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle are not battle-tested. Nor will the White Sox as a team be after playing out September in a sluggish brand of baseball.

So proceed cautiously as you set your tables for the autumn festivities, you revilers of Yankee existence. That fork could be stuck in you well before it ever touches the hors d'oeuvres.