2005 NFL Preview: Minnesota Vikings

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Last Year

It couldn't have been a better opening for the Minnesota Vikings as they started 5-1 and the Green Bay Packers started 1-4. But as per their usual under head coach Mike Tice, they scalped away the division to the Packers in December. As the team shifts its strength from offense to defense for the coming year, the one lingering weakness remains to be their lack of mental toughness.

What We Learned From Last Year

In 2004, Mike Tice led the Vikings to their first postseason berth and victory since 2000, but during his two-year tenure, the team has been less than impressive.

In his first year, the team jumped out of the gates with a 6-0 record, stumbled to finish 9-7 finish, and was barred from the playoffs by a last-second loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Last season was even worse as their start was not as hot as 2003 and their collapse dropped them to .500 (could have been much worse — i.e. Detroit missing an extra point). Had the conference been somewhat competitive, the Vikings would not have made the playoffs at 8-8.

The difference between the Jekyll and Hyde is the ability to run the ball.

During their streaky 5-1 start, the Vikes were averaging 128 yards per game, but that average dropped to 106.6 amid their slide into the playoffs.

Their offensive line is ranked among the best in the NFL, but with a running back by committee, the Vikings don't seem to have that dominant, reliable one guy who they can count in critical situations.

Onterrio Smith was the starter early on, but then gave way to Mewelde Moore, who was effective for a few games. Then Michael Bennett reclaimed his starting job, but essentially, all three split carries the rest of the way. None were overly successful in the red zone as the Vikings tallied more rushing touchdowns than only the Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, and Detroit Lions.

But the inconsistency did not faze quarterback Daunte Culpepper, who at one point looked like an MVP candidate.

He posted new career-highs for completion percentage (69.2%), passing yards (4,717), TD/INT ratio (39/11), and quarterback rating (110.9) and penciled his name under most of the Vikings' passing records.

While Randy Moss was his usual self, aside from missing a section of five games, Nate Burleson surfaced as a legitimate second option with 68 receptions for just over 1,000 yards receiving. He has shown great hands and good separation, but in all fairness, he wasn't the focus of attention by most defenses.

There are no real qualms to be had with the sixth-ranked scoring offense — it was the defense that was more of a letdown.

It is difficult to wrap your mind around the fact that the Vikings allowed opponents to convert 45.9% of their third downs and still made the playoffs. Only the Oakland Raiders and the Carolina Panthers ranked worse.

The defense as a whole finished 28th in the league, but the pass defense was unquestionably inferior to the run defense.

Free agent signing Antoine Winfield fit the bill, but there was no one adequate cornerback to start alongside him. Free safety was another area of concern as Brian Russell was barely tolerable as a starter. Strong safety Corey Chavous was the only other competent starter in the secondary, but often tried to do too much.

Chris Hovan wore out his welcome in Minnesota as the starting tackle, but partner Kevin Williams emerged as a primetime tackle and represented Minnesota's defense in the Pro Bowl.

The line also saw Kenechi Udeze grow as a first-round draft pick as he registered five sacks in his rookie campaign, but neither him, nor Kenny Mixon could offer the consistency that Lance Johnstone did on the other side.

Udeze wasn't an every-down player (because of a shoulder injury) and too often could Williams be double-teamed and the rest of the line would disappear.

The 2004 and 2003 Vikings were simply not mentally tough. They played well when it didn't matter and fell apart when crunch time came along. This type of team-wide collapse usually stems from the coach. See: 2005 Baltimore Orioles and 2004 Cleveland Cavaliers.

This Year

To be blunt, coaches like Mike Tice simply don't have their heads screwed on too tightly. Can you imagine Bill Belichick ever scalping tickets? Is it fathomable to think that Bill Parcells would start an injured franchise player, like Tice did Moss, just so his personal streak of consecutive games started would prolong?

Unlikely.

Tice blows a lot of hot air and very little of it is warming.

Remember the Randy-ratio? That hot air turned into smoke up our rear ends, so when he says he plans to return to a tough inside running attack this year, believe with caution.

Aside: there are coaches in the NFL who can take good talent and coach them up, such as John Fox and Andy Reid. Then there are coaches who have Super Bowl-caliber teams and barely reach the playoffs, such as Mike Tice and Mike Martz.

The Vikings have finally made a strong commitment to the defense, which is a complete deviation from their typical all-offense strategy.

The signing of Fred Smoot means that the Vikings will start arguably the best tandem of cornerbacks in the league. Brian Williams will get pushed back to a nickel role which he is better suited for.

At safety, the Vikings plucked the Packers' best defender in Darren Sharper and he will team with Corey Chavous as the safeties. With help around him, Chavous doesn't have to save the world this year.

On paper, there is nothing to be worried about in the secondary.

The linebackers will also welcome a couple of new faces as Napolean Harris and Sam Cowart arrive. Cowart should feel right at home playing the middle linebacker role. He thrived at that position in Buffalo before being misplaced to an outside spot in New York. Dontarrious Thomas misses too many tackles to be the third starter and E.J. Henderson will start ahead of him. Although this trio is much better than last year's group, they are still not as strong as the secondary projects to be.

On the line, bringing Pat Williams on board will create a massive predicament for opponents. Both Williams' can beat single-coverage, but teams will have to pick their poison. Furthermore, the drafting of Erasmus James, a pure speed-rusher off the end means that his development, along with Udeze's, should be expedited if they are only facing one lineman, as well. If neither matures, even though Lance Johnstone is still around, the passing defense will be burdened with quarterbacks having too much time to throw.

So the defense does a 180, but expect the offense to do the same.

A power running game, the Vikings will have not. The committee features Michael Bennett (5-9, 209), Mewelde Moore (5-10, 210), Moe Williams (6-1, 205), and Ciatrick Fason (6-0, 215), all of which are too small to handle the rigors of a 25-30-carry load per game.

But the Vikings will still have a premier running attack based on blazing speed and elusiveness.

The question is if the Vikings can rely on these running backs to wear the clock down in the fourth quarter. A big, powerful back in the mix would provide some variety, opposed to the crowd of small, shifty runners that they have.

They will also face the added difficulty of more defensive attention. With Randy Moss on the field, teams had to commit at least one cornerback and one safety to him. Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson will not distract opponents as much.

Rookie first-rounder Troy Williamson and former first-rounder Travis Taylor are also part of the wide receiving corps. Williamson is a vertical threat, but he is a rookie. First-year wide receivers traditionally do not make a big impact. Taylor was a castoff from Baltimore, a team desperate for wideouts, and although he has starting potential, he has underachieved to this point.

Burleson is the opposite of Taylor: he has great focus and concentration, has excellent hands, and can catch in traffic.

But Burleson and Robinson were beneficiaries of having a Randy Moss on the other side of the field. Injured or healthy, Moss attracted the opponent's best cornerback and now Burleson will have to deal with that.

If you're an optimist, Taylor and Burleson will suffice with strong production from Williamson, pushing for a starting job.

If you're a pessimist, Burleson still has to prove he can be the unquestioned top target and Taylor still has to prove he has worth.

If the latter is the case, combined with a group of small running backs that disappear in critical situations, the Vikings will have trouble scoring points at times of necessity.

Something tells me this offense won't have any problems in the first seven weeks, but will struggle drastically in the last seven weeks. With Mike Tice on board, you can always expect the team to underachieve.

Over/Under: 9.5

In the NFC North, the Vikings are only the best team on paper. Come December, that paper is typically used in the bathroom as the Viqueens can be outplayed by Green Bay, Chicago, or Detroit in that month. They play: TB, @CIN, NO, @ATL, @CAR, @NYG, CLE, STL, PIT, and @BAL.

Fantasy Sleeper

Mike Tice says he has re-committed to Michael Bennett and since he is the only every-down back this team has to offer, look for a good fantasy season from him. He has track speed and can turn small gain into long distance runs. He's also in a contract year — you know what that means.

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