The final installment of my fantasy football forecast profiles the little men of the NFL, the kickers. While kickers religiously receive little of the credit and absorb lots of the blame (especially if you name is Doug Brien or Scott Norwood), having a solid one on your fantasy football team is a good way to consistently outscore your opponents. If nothing else, being secure at this spot will alleviate at least a modicum of the stress you face as you make your weekly lineup.
Kickers are a tough breed to rate. Generally, a kicker's performance is tied directly to the inability of his team to score. This makes the kickers on teams that have difficulty scoring touchdowns a premium group. However, there is a balance to be noted, and that balance is predicated on the fact that you don't want a kicker on one of these teams if they also have difficulty moving the ball at all.
It also helps if the kicker you draft plays on a team with a rugged defense, as this will minimize late-game fourth-down conversion attempts and allow for some cheap end-of-game or end-of-half field goal attempts that do add up over the course of a season.
My kicker grading system is a bit different than the other positions. Though there are exceptions, generally, most kickers I would recommend play on teams with stout defenses, effective offenses, but teams that also lack a short yardage stud or a red zone maven. I've included only the top 10, but using this formula, it is pretty easy to slot all those not mentioned below.
1) Adam Vinatieri, Patriots
I said there were exceptions, and this is one of them. Though Corey Dillon is a great short yardage guy, the Pats are one of those "do just enough to win" teams and usually that consists of kicking lots of field goals and not turning the ball over. Vinatieri is a strong pick in or around the early part of the second half of the draft.
2) David Akers, Eagles
Akers is accurate and has a relatively strong leg, and Philly is lacking a real horse in the red zone (at least on the ground). This should translate into ample opportunities for the Eagles kicker. Another good pick early after round 10.
3) John Kasey, Panthers
Kasey kicked very well at the close of 2004, and should continue to see lots of chances. Many will say this is too high, but I don't buy it. The best thing about Kasey is the value he'll bring you — few owners will even consider drafting him, so he should be available in your last few picks.
4) Jason Elam, Broncos
Though he is aging, the mile-high Denver air adds life to his career, and the struggle I anticipate Denver having punching the ball into the end zone will be a godsend for fantasy owners who grab Elam late in their drafts.
5) Mike Vanderjagt, Colts
Another of those exceptions I mentioned, Vanderjagt gains value for kicking indoors and for the effectiveness of his team's offense. Most leagues will have an owner that reaches for Vanderjagt, so let them and take one of the others unless he's still there late in the draft.
6) Mike Nugent, Jets
No player should see more field goal chances than Nugent, but you have to temper his value as he is just a rookie. Still, a good bet to be close to or at the top of the field goal charts, just be careful if you league deducts points for misses, as rookies generally do have a bit of a learning curve to overcome, especially considering the unpredictability of New York's winters.
7) Olindo Mare, Dolphins
Miami's offense is certain to improve under new coach Nick Saban and new coordinator Scott Linehan, which will translate into more opportunities for Mare. He is inconsistent, though, so you may want to grab one of the others if they remain late in your draft.
8) Josh Scobey, Jaguars
Since Jacksonville doesn't really have a goal line back, Scobey should get some in-close chances. He has a strong leg, too, which will help, but he is still young and may struggle at times. A safe pick.
9) Nate Kaeding, Chargers
Loses some value with the presence of L.T. and Antonio Gates, both strong red zone players. But Kaeding has a cannon and plays in reasonably tame weather, so he's a good bet to produce.
10) Billy Cundiff, Cowboys
Cundiff is the least skilled of all the kickers in my top 10, but Dallas will certainly have a solid enough offense to get him in range and their defense will keep most games close. Look to grab him as a free agent if you don't feel comfortable with any of the kickers on the board late in the draft.
Drafting a kicker is a bit of gamble, as there are many serviceable candidates that will be around as free agents, especially in relatively small leagues. Still, making sure you get a guy you are comfortable with will create a sense of calm with the position that is well worth a late-round investment.
My kicker of choice, as alluded to above, is John Kasey. I like to feel good about my kicker, but I drafted mine late nonetheless, using my more valuable picks on skill positions that may be on my competitors' radars. As with the defenses, the only true failsafe method for picking the kicker you want is approaching you draft with a solid plan and sticking with that plan.
With that, my fantasy football forecast for 2005 comes to a close. Hopefully you've had a chance to check out all six of the articles, and I certainly hope you've found value in my effort.
If nothing else, my rankings can provide a starting point that costs far less than one of those publications you can get on most any newsstand. In fantasy football, any little bit of info helps, and I trust that you'll at least consider my analysis when coming up with your preferred plan of attack as you prepare for your league's draft.
In any event, good luck and happy drafting!
Leave a Comment