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Last Year
The Indianapolis Colts and their superman, Peyton Manning, looked unstoppable in 2004 as their offense was made of steel and Manning's x-ray vision re-wrote the record books with 49 passing touchdowns. But the Colts still found their kryptonite in the form of the New England Patriots as their second consecutive season was ended by the Pats. As it stands right now, the Colts are the number one contender, but they need to beat the champ — or have someone else beat them — to be the champ.
What We Learned From Last Year
Last season started exactly like 2003-04 ended: with a loss to the New England Patriots.
Manning, once again, looked confused by the schemes of Bill Belichick — what else is new?
Some may forget, but the Colts were actually pretty sluggish out of the gate with a 4-3 record and were temporarily out of first place until the offense caught fire.
Although Indy didn't score less than 24 points in the first eight weeks of the season, it wasn't until week nine that they really started to maul opponents.
In the following six weeks, they outscored their foes 225-67 and never came close to losing any game.
The passing game was a highlight reel and for the first time in his career, Manning did not rely so heavily on only one receiver. This time, he had three.
Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley emerged with 1,000+ receiving yard and 10+ touchdown seasons, which kept the focus off the Colts' most dangerous receiver, Marvin Harrison. Factor in some double tight end sets with Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard and this hydra was unstoppable.
Normally, over 2,000 rushing and receiving yards don't go unnoticed, but with so much of the spotlight on the passing game, Edgerrin James' best season in four years was somewhat overshadowed.
As for the defense, it's become much of an afterthought for the Colts with such a high-powered offense.
Head coach Tony Dungy has done a good job of cultivating some first-rate young talent, but it gets lost in the mix since every opponent is forced to score just to keep up.
Cato June and David Thornton were stout in the linebacking corps and both led the team in tackles.
On the line, Dwight Freeney was once again outstanding, but this time Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock sprouted as valuable complements. The latter two are still partially overrated since they don't have to play a lot of run defense.
The secondary was still a weakness as Nick Harper, Jason David, Joseph Jefferson, and Donald Strickland were not capable of covering anyone. The whole secondary combined for a mediocre 12 interceptions and was picked apart constantly.
At safety, Bob Sanders and Mike Doss have yet to meet expectations, but have bright futures.
Rewinding to last year's AFC Championship game, the defense may have been a little wet behind the ears, but they kept the Colts competitive. It was the offense who let them down.
In the world sports, there are some teams who just matchup so perfectly against others. The Ottawa Senators can't defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs in the playoffs, the Oklahoma Sooners own Mack Brown's Texas Longhorns, and the Indianapolis Colts can't handle the New England Patriots.
Indy has increasingly improved under Tony Dungy, but it's all for not unless the Colts can leap the mental hurdle and get past the Patriots.
This Year
November 7th is a date circled on most NFL calendars as last year's AFC Championship matchup will be revisited. By then, we'll truly know how the Patriots have responded to the loss of both of their coordinators.
On offense, the Colts return the same cast, minus tight end Marcus Pollard. The loss should be minimal as former first-round pick Dallas Clark has been groomed to step into the starting lineup and second-year players Ben Hartsock or Ben Utecht should be ready to be the team's second tight end. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore won't have to pull the two tight end sets that he loves so much out of his playbook if one of the two can step up, otherwise look for more three-receiver sets.
The offensive line is always a key for the Colts, but they have never really had any question marks regarding it. This grouping is among the league's premier units time after time. This year, they are set at center and the tackle positions, but the starting guards are not written in stone.
Rookie Dylan Gandy will compete with Ryan Lilja for the right job and Jake Scott should be penciled in for the left job after nine starts in his rookie season. Manning always does an excellent job of feeling the pressure and getting rid of the ball quickly, if necessary, so this unit should not be a concern.
The Colts spent six of their first eight draft selections on defensive players including first-round pick cornerback Marlin Jackson.
He will compete with a pack of pedestrians at cornerback, but is expected to develop into the team's shutdown man. Nick Harper, Joseph Jefferson, and Jason David are all decent nickel backs, but are overwhelmed when facing a solid number two wideout.
If Jackson can mature quickly, the Colts should have playmakers at every area on the defense.
At safety, Mike Doss and Bob Sanders are the Colts' 2003 and 2004 second-round selections, but have yet to establish themselves. Sanders is a presence at strong safety and Doss has shown flashes of instinctive playmaking ability, but both are relatively inexperienced.
At linebacker, David Thornton is on the cusp of becoming the playmaker in the middle of the defense. He is very athletic, is solid in pass coverage, and can cover a lot of ground. He will be joined by Cato June and Gary Brackett in the middle. The team also re-signed veteran linebacker Rob Morris, which was a wise move to provide some depth.
On the line, we're well aware of Freeney and Mathis, but Raheem Brock and Montae Reagor are very good pass-rushers, as well. The problem is that none of these four really excel in terms of run defense. They are much more effective playing with the lead when their opponent is forced to pass the ball and they can just go all out getting to the quarterback.
Larry Tripplett is one of the few Colts linemen with some bulk, but he has not lived up to expectations so far. This is a contract year for him, so don't be surprised if he becomes a bigger influence in the run defense.
It has been a few years now that the Colts have been frugal with the defensive personnel, only investing draft picks for that side of the ball while tying most of their finances into the offense but on paper, things look to be coming together for the defense.
The defensive line has talent on the ends and has a decent enough rotation at tackle while the secondary is replete with a few prospects waiting to blossom (although the same sentiments have been echoed in the previous two seasons).
This Colts' offense has mangled virtually every type of opponent the AFC has thrown their way: high-scoring outfits like the Chiefs, defensive-minded teams like the Ravens, and running-game oriented rivals like the Broncos. The only team Indy has struggled with is the Patriots (and the Jaguars, to some degree).
Last year seemed to be a prime opportunity for the Colts as their offense was climaxing in the playoffs while New England was without starting cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole and Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour. How much better can it get?
A scrappy division might keep the Colts from achieving homefield advantage throughout the playoffs but home or away, rain or snow, Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis or no Romeo Crennel and no Charlie Weis, the bottom line is the Colts need to find a way to overcome or avoid the Patriots.
The latter might be easier.
Over/Under: 11.5
Twelve wins is a serious possibility for a focused championship contender with urgent homefield advantage needs. The Colts have never had any problems with division rivals Houston (6-0) and or Tennessee (4-0 in last four meetings), leaving Jacksonville as the only ominous opponent in-house. The AFC South faces up with the NFC West this year, which is one of the easier divisions, meaning that the Colts will have a legitimate shot at repeating last year's 12-4 performance. They play: @BAL, CLE, @SF, STL, @NE, @CIN, PIT, SD, @SEA, and ARZ.
Fantasy Sleeper
Troy Walters was injured throughout most of last season, but is capable of being an excellent weapon in the slot — a la Brandon Stokley. With Stokley enduring a separated shoulder on the August 3rd, look for Walters to get a few extra reps with the first team. If Stokley's injured is prolonged, or any of the Colts receivers miss time during the regular season, Walters will have some value.
Stay tuned as Dave Golokhov brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! Sponsored by CyberSportsbook.com, a great casino for horse racing and sportsbook action.
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