Fantasy Football Forecast: D/ST Ratings

No championship fantasy football roster is complete without a strong defense. While some leagues employ an individual defender scoring system, the lion's share utilize team defenses combined with special teams to represent their defensive scoring.

While I certainly am anal retentive enough to bore you with a ranking of the top 100 individual performers, I'm not too sure how much that would impress the editor here at Sports Central, so I'll refrain from taking that route. Rather, I've put together a short list of those defense/special team units that are worthy of consideration at or near the early part of any draft.

Since the leagues I participate in don't use this scoring system, I will admit that my ranking system isn't quite as fool-proof relative to this position. But since I do have experience in the past using this type of scoring, it's not like the blind leading the blind here.

With that, I give you the top 10 defense/special team units for the 2005 season with a brief explanation for each and their particular slotting.

1) Baltimore Ravens

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure this one out. Lots of turnovers, explosive players, and constant pressure create headaches for any offensive coordinator working up a game plan in preparation for a game versus Baltimore. Their return game is solid, though not spectacular, and they've been known to throw in some blocked punts and field goals, as well, making theirs a thoroughly dominating unit. A very strong pick in or around the sixth round.

2) Detroit Lions

A very good return game mixed in with the most promising secondary in the game makes the outlook very good for this developing group. While sack numbers will likely remain an area of concern, they should do well enough in that category to keep this unit at or near the top of the league throughout the 2005 campaign. Not quite as sure a thing as Baltimore, the Lions would be a nice pick in round six.

3) Philadelphia Eagles

Their defense is the real deal, as they regularly compile nice sack totals and a whole lot of turnovers. While their return game is somewhat in a state of flux, Brian Westbrook may go back to returning punts full time, which would only improve a unit that is not terrible to begin with. As well-coached as they come, the Eagles get bonus points in the area of points allowed and yards given up. Their consistency warrants them a pick in round six or seven.

4) Buffalo Bills

While it is evident Buffalo's loss of Pat Williams will effect their run defense negatively, their returner, Terrance Maghee, is a stud and makes this a very nice pick in the eighth or ninth round.

5) Dallas Cowboys

The Tuna has his charges looking up this season, and while they are very weak at the linebacker position and will be counting on some young rookies to pressure the quarterback, their secondary is dynamite and the potential for a great return game in Big D is very real. Make this group a 10th-round selection, and you'll be doing well for yourself.

6) San Diego Chargers

With a very stingy defense, aggressive defensive backs, and a disciplined coaching staff, San Diego offers a very secure option as a fantasy defensive unit. Factor in the special teams, which should be anchored by rookie dynamo Darren Sproles, and you have a top-notch unit. Don't wait much longer than round 10 for this group.

7) Cincinnati Bengals

I like their tenacity and their development last season, though they did have some breakdowns. They generate a lot of turnovers, but may give up more yards than the others on this list. Still, they, too have potential to make hay in the special teams category. Look like a nice mid-round choice.

8) Miami Dolphins

A bit of a "homer" slotting here, though that allegiance has a lot to do with my feeling that the defensive unit isn't aging as quickly as all the pundits seem to think. An improved return game should help, and big-play types like Tavares Tillman and Tebucky Jones in the secondary will certainly boost their turnover ratio. Not to mention, they are always a threat to put up huge sack numbers. A mid-to-late-round choice.

9) Houston Texans

Sure, they still haven't proven to anyone that they can get any substantive pressure applied to the opposing quarterback. But this team is young and fast and has two big-play cornerbacks (Phillip Buchanon, Dunta Robinson) and a great return game. A solid pick in the second half of the draft as your primary defense.

10) Atlanta Falcons

Rounding out the top 10 is this aggressive unit, which generates a lot of pressure on the opposition. They may give up too many points to ultimately rank higher than No. 10 on this list, but they are well-coached and have a solid return specialist in Allen Rossum. A good choice early in the second part of a draft.

As I said, my specialty is not team defensive rankings, though I feel very good about the 10 units rated above. Beyond these 10, it's pretty much a crapshoot, so look to gain an advantage by drafting one of them without reaching too far. Maybe talk up the Ravens and Bills a bit to try to sucker a league-mate into reaching into round four or five for their defense, and then you wait until round 12 or so and grab a very productive unit like those of the Chargers or Falcons.

Since I am more familiar with individual defender league formats, I don't want to leave out at least one tidbit of info regarding potential drafting strategies, so here it is: when choosing an IDP (individual defensive player), remember the importance of consistency. As good as a Michael Strahan's 15 sacks look, keep in mind that he most likely won't be getting a sack in each and every game. This leaves a big hole in your lineup through those games where he isn't producing. You're better bet is too let the rest of the owner's in your league reach for their big-name players while you sit back and grab relatively unknown consistent tackling machines like Will Witherspoon (Panthers) and Mike Peterson (Jaguars), who will get you 8-12 points each and every week.

There are the obvious exceptions to the wait-and-see approach for drafting individual defenders. Those would be Ray Lewis (Ravens), Donnie Edwards (Chargers), Julius Peppers (Panthers), and Ed Reed (Ravens). Grab those guys early if you can — maybe as early as round five. Their production is consistent and they have unmatched big play potential on defense.

Beyond that, regardless of the format your league is using for defense, keep their value in perspective. While you don't want to waste picks that you should be spending on skill position players, you also don't want to completely neglect this particular area of your team. Defense does indeed win championships, even in fantasy football, and ensuring that your squad doesn't get left in the cold takes little more than having a plan as you go into your draft. Stick to this plan and you should be fine.

Don't miss the QB, RB, WR, and TE ratings. Stay tuned as Matt Thomas brings you more fantasy forecasts!

Comments and Conversation

August 11, 2005

mike kielma:

Hey matt, good peice as always. I like em all except the lions and bengals.
The lions have tough offense’s in thier divison including 2 of the top 7 Qbs in Culpep and Favre. Some people will say Farve is over-da-hill and Culpep is nothing without Moss, but until either one of these guys throw for less than 30 TDs in a season, I would stay out of the Norris Divison. The Bengals O is stout, so this may force other teams to be aggressive in playing catchup. I would rather take Pits instead due to they have been a little more consistent in years past, and that division is an offensive black hole.
Mike

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