Year in and year out, the wide receiver position is one that is religiously the most difficult to predict. Each season, the upper echelon of receivers, in terms of production, is dotted with one-hit-wonders amidst the "usual suspects" that tend to produce on a yearly basis. Add to that the reliance any receiver has on the production of his quarterback and the offensive scheme his team employs, and you have yourself a veritable crapshoot.
That's where I come in. The "science" behind my rankings in general, and especially my receiver rankings, considers all of the factors that are generally lost on the casual fantasy football participant. I think any reader will see as they peruse this list that some of these wide outs, who may otherwise be unnoticed, are very much in the limelight as a result of my analysis. Hopefully, this makes my top 50 wide receivers a palatable crew.
Having a solid group of receivers, especially in some fantasy football formats that require playing at least two each week, can make the difference between having an average team and a great one. Conversely, getting a consistently low score from the position could doom even teams with a great running back/quarterback combo.
Again, if you've missed out on my first two installments (quarterbacks and running backs), I invite you to check them out before you get into the meat of this particular article, as they give some background on my qualifications relative to the ratings.
As with the other lists, I've included each player's strength of schedule and, predictably, the value represented for wide receivers is indicative of the team's schedule difficulty against the pass. Statistical projections are also included, with receptions being calculated by taking yardage and dividing it by the league average yards per catch at the position. The top 50 receivers on my list have been included below, with a more detailed analysis accompanying the top 10.
1) Terrell Owens, Eagles (7)
T.O. has reported to Eagles camp and he'll be the same old T.O. Owens is deadly at any location on the field (heck, the guy's even deadly in the press room with all those microphones in his face) and is a lock to put up big-time yardage and touchdown numbers as Donovan McNabb's favorite target. If you are picking near the back end of the first round and feel that a running back you're comfortable with will still be around when you pick again in round two, don't hesitate on drafting Owens.
(2005 projected stats: 101 catches, 1,377 yards, 15 TD)
2) Randy Moss, Raiders (27-tie)
The saying goes, "A rolling stone gathers no moss," but recent history has shown that a rolling offense is covered in Moss. The latter is an adage fans of the Silver and Black will be eating up all year long. Despite having to cope with one of the five toughest pass schedules this season, Moss is a dangerous receiver with unmatched skills and tenacity (when applying himself, it should be noted). Pencil him in for his usual nearly pornographic array of dazzling touchdown catches and highlight reel runs after the catch. With Owens, he is one of the two worthy first stanza receiver selections and if you can manage to pick him up early in round two after you grab a running back in the first, you should consider yourself truly blessed.
(83, 1,126, 17)
3) Drew Bennett, Titans (10)
For all of the pageantry Moss and Owens provide at the position, this blue-collar wide out will give you nearly as much security without the hullabaloo. While many will point out that Bennett's emergent 2004 season was on the strength of three outrageously productive games, it should be noted that those games were under similar circumstances to those the Titans will face this season (large deficits and a thin receiving corps), which makes him a threat to burst onto the scene in 2005 with a much more consistent contribution. I like Bennett as a second-round talent, but caution any reader that he likely will be available in round three or four and would be a real steal if you could grab him in one of those rounds.
(89, 1,217, 15)
4) Muhsin Muhammad, Bears (18)
Another that many feel outperformed reality last season, Muhammad was always considered a superb talent, but never really lived up to expectations until last season, when the injury to Steve Smith availed him the opportunity to be the primary target in an offense. In Chicago, he will have the same status and even with an inexperienced quarterback he should stabilize what was an atrocious passing game a year ago. Look to grab Muhsin late in round two or early in round three.
(85, 1,152, 14)
5) Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (6)
I can hear all the boos and cat-calls now. However, Fitzgerald will be in his second season and should be ready to show the world that he is the real deal, especially with a rifle-armed Warner hurling him the pigskin. Even with two very significant receivers playing alongside Fitzgerald (Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson), Larry should have no problem handling the spotlight in the desert sun. With very little resistance in terms of the defenses he will regularly face, Fitzy is a very safe third round selection and a steal in any round thereafter.
(92, 1,253, 12)
6) Marvin Harrison, Colts (12)
You see, I have not forgotten about the ultra-consistent Indianapolis receiver, after all. Playing for the Colts affords Harrison many opportunities to shine, but also tempers his numbers a bit due to the variety of weapons Manning has at his disposal. That said, the guy leads the league in "Why in the hell was he so open?" exclamations from opposing coaches, and that alone slots him higher than his counterpart, Reggie Wayne. Harrison is an interesting case, who many owners will value as a first-round or early second-round guy, but my analysis places him firmly as a third-round producer and it would be wise not to fall victim to overvaluing Harrison, even if it means missing out on his services — just take Wayne a round or two later.
(75, 1,022, 15)
7) Torry Holt, Rams (5)
Production is Torry Holt's middle name, and this year will be no different. The one factor that drops him all the way to seven on this list is the likelihood that he won't score quite as many touchdowns as some of the other receivers will. The drop-off from Owens (who is No. 1 on this list) to Holt isn't too severe, and numbers three through 12 on this list will ultimately put up very similar overall numbers, but that difference is enough to move Holt (and the others) into the third round just on the fact that the receiver position isn't a real priority when considering it against the top-shelf backfield options.
102, 1,388, 10)
8) Chad Johnson, Bengals (19)
Johnson has been as solid as anyone over the past two-plus seasons at his position, and with a Cincinnati team that seems poised to make a strong playoff push, Chad should continue to excel. As with Holt, Chad Johnson could ultimately wind up leading the league in both receptions and yardage, but isn't quite the red zone threat that some of the others are, so that makes him a solid third-rounder and nothing more.
(96, 1,301, 11)
9) Reggie Wayne, Colts (12)
Part two of Indy's dynamic receiving corps, Wayne is an emerging stud and is quickly usurping many of Harrison's opportunities in the Colts passing attack. Still, Wayne hasn't quite surpassed Marvin in terms of touchdown potential as he sometimes struggles to shed double-coverage, especially in the red zone. Regardless of this, making Reggie your first receiver pick somewhere in the third round is a strong move and it will eliminate the frustration of reaching for a more renowned Harrison in the first two rounds without sacrificing a whole lot.
(91, 1,244, 10)
10) Hines Ward, Steelers (25)
As steady a pass-catcher as there is in the game, Ward certainly will continue to be a top-flight fantasy option. However, one of QB Ben Roethlisberger's most valuable assets is his ability to find the open guy, which will somewhat reduce the steady stream of passes Ward has seen in recent years. Even with that, Hines is a great third- or fourth-round pick and is pretty much a sure thing to produce at a level worthy of such a pick.
(81, 1,101, 12)
11) Joe Horn, Saints (22)
Like a fine wine, Horn continues to grow better with age. The inconsistency of Aaron Brooks and the Saints' offense in general hurts his stock a bit, but Horn is still an easy guy to figure relative to production. Snatch him up if he's still around late in the third round or early in the fourth.
(90, 1,223, 10)
12) Andre Johnson, Texans (3)
Andre should benefit greatly from the porous defenses he'll face within his division (aside from Jacksonville, of course) in 2005. He has become a highlight-reel performer who has proven he can make tough catches in traffic and his size makes him a solid red zone target for developing QB David Carr. An easy pick if he's around in round four, and may even be worth a late third.
(88, 1,204, 10)
13) Darrell Jackson, Seahawks (4)
With Koren Robinson out of the picture in Seattle, Jackson can go one of two ways. He may continue on his recent trend of dropping passes and put up just decent numbers, or he'll be a more focused football player and become the top-tier threat his route-running and nose for the ball would characterize him as. I look for the latter to be a more likely result, which makes Jackson a good pick in round four.
(96, 1,311, 8)
14) Javon Walker, Packers (28)
A huge asterisk should be placed next to Walker's name as he, unlike Owens, actually has a valid case for a hold out. If he does report, look for Walker to show that last season's production was no fluke. Watch his status carefully, because using the fourth round pick I recommend on Javon and having him miss even a part of the year would be unfortunate indeed. (Note: Walker has reported to Packers camp. — Ed)
(80, 1,095, 10)
15) Nate Burleson, Vikings (9)
Sans Randy Moss, Burleson is the de facto go to guy in Minnesota's offense. This has proven to be a very beneficial spot to be in, and Burleson should have no problem duplicating the promise he began to flash en masse last season. A steal in round five.
(82, 1116, 9)
16) Plaxico Burress, Giants (21)
The new setting in Flushing Meadows should do wonders for Burress' generally apathetic approach to a game he could dominate. Still, with all the talent Plaxico possesses, it is a shame that he rates out of the top-10, and that won't change until he shows he's committed to his job. Taking him before the fifth round is a risk, but one that may pay off.
(60, 820, 12)
17) Jimmy Smith, Jaguars (1)
Smith is clearly aging, but continues to show that he is an all-timer at the wide receiver position. While I do expect a continued drop-off in his numbers, the Jags feature a ridiculously pass-friendly schedule in 2005 and Smith certainly isn't ready to fade into the sunset quite yet. A solid fifth-round pick.
(80, 1,092, 9)
18) Chris Chambers, Dolphins (8)
Realizing that Chambers has never fully lived up to the hype, Chris is the best receiver on a team that should score more in 2005. Chambers has always had a decent nose for the end zone and should emerge as a favorite target, especially with the legal question marks surrounding their other primary pass catcher, TE Randy McMichael. A good fifth-round pick who should finally break the 1,000-yard plateau.
(77, 1,052, 9)
19) Michael Clayton, Buccaneers (13)
Year two of the Michael Clayton era in Tampa should be marked with improvement as a rapport develops between he and Brian Griese. Look to snag Clayton in round six.
(83, 1,136, 8)
20) Roy Williams, Lions (15)
Another emerging young receiver, Williams needs to stay healthy to justify a top-20 ranking. Clearly, the best of a very talented set of pass catchers in Detroit, his affinity for acrobatic catches in traffic make him a pretty safe bet as a fifth- or sixth-round receiving option.
(72, 979, 8)
21) Lee Evans, Bills (27-tie)
I mentioned in my running back analysis that I am not a believer in the Buffalo Bills for 2005. But because of his red zone potential, Lee Evans will bring to an end the Eric Moulds era of prominence in Buffalo, which isn't an easy task. If Evans is around in round six, jump all over him.
(55, 752, 10)
22) Donald Driver, Packers (28)
Someone that may slip through the cracks, especially if Walker's hold out becomes increasingly ugly. Without Walker, Driver should be slid up this list considerably, with him, don't use anything lower than a seventh-rounder on Driver.
(70, 957, 8)
23) Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (6)
A physical specimen if there ever was one, Boldin is poised to rebound from an injury-plagued 2004. A firm seventh-round choice.
(70, 949, 8)
24) Isaac Bruce, Rams (5)
No matter how hard I try, I just can't find justification for leaving Bruce out of the top 25 at his position. He'll be another step slower and a little more fragile, but he's a gamer and worthy of a pick late in round seven or early in round eight.
(81, 1,098, 6)
25) Jerry Porter, Raiders (27-tie)
Though Moss will render Porter obsolete as Kerry Collins' primary option on offense, his red zone prowess can never be completely ignored. Getting Jerry in round eight would be a coup, but be careful not to reach for him too early, as No. 3 receiver Ronald Curry may also cut into his chances.
(61, 831, 8)
26) Derrick Mason, Ravens (11)
Being Kyle Boller's number two option (remember, Todd Heap is there as his number one) is akin to being a number three on most other teams. Mason will certainly catch his share of balls, but the red zone belongs to Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap, which tempers any enthusiasm I may have had for Mason. Still, you could do worse in rounds nine or ten.
(73, 995, 5)
27) Quincy Morgan, Cowboys (16)
With one year of Bill Parcells in his rear view mirror, Morgan should be able to adjust to his coach's expectations in 2005. May emerge as the primary pass-catcher, as long as Keyshawn doesn't write any books about him. No better than a 10th-round choice, with a pretty good upside.
(62, 844, 7)
28) Reggie Williams, Jaguars (1)
Lost in the hype about 2005 first-round draft pick Matt Jones is Jacksonville's 2004 first-rounder, Reggie Williams. Williams has great size and should capitalize on a potent Jag offensive attack. A good sleeper in round 10.
(64, 872, 7)
29) Eddie Kennison, Chiefs (31)
Somebody has to catch some balls in Kansas City, and Gonzalez can't get them all. Kennison is the primary candidate to fit that bill, so he is worthy of a late 10th-round pick.
(54, 730, 8)
30) Troy Williamson, Vikings (9)
Finally, a rookie on this list. While I am not a believer in Williamson (hands of stone — trust me, you'll see), the nature of the Viking offense and his blazing speed will certainly yield him enough big plays to render him a relatively adequate pick in rounds 10-12.
(59, 810, 7)
31) Steve Smith, Panthers (17)
Coming back from injury, Smith won't be the same guy we saw in the 2003 playoffs — yet. A balanced Carolina passing game will be anchored by the diminutive Smith, though, and his numbers should make him worthy of an 11th-round selection.
(66, 897, 6)
32) Michael Jenkins, Falcons (14)
Recently anointed the starter in Atlanta, Jenkins is a promising young player who could turn the relatively harmless Falcon passing attack into more of a downfield weapon. I like him as a deep sleeper, as his projected numbers err on the side of conservative and he is worthy of a 12th-round draft pick.
(64, 870, 6)
33) Eric Moulds, Bills (27-tie)
Moulds is still a talent and should not be completely forgotten, but he stands to lose many touchdown opportunities playing alongside the emerging Lee Evans. His greatest curse this season will be the minimalist attitude the coaches take to the Buffalo passing game in year one of the J.P. Losman era. Worth no better than 12th-round choice.
(59, 805, 7)
34) Rod Gardner, Panthers (17)
As I implied in counterpart Steve Smith's explanation, Carolina should have a balanced offense, giving new acquisition Gardner ample opportunity to contribute, but little chance to shine. Another 12th-round value pick.
(55, 754, 7)
35) David Patten, Redskins (23)
There is not much to like about Washington's offense this season, but Patten is a nice addition and his contribution should be felt immediately. Not worth anything better than a 13th-round choice, but a player to keep an eye on as he should go undrafted in many leagues.
(54, 731, 7)
36) Keyshawn Johnson, Cowboys (16)
"Me-shawn" may be playing on borrowed time, even with his buddy Parcells running the ship. His size makes him a safe bet to at least get some catches, but he won't be much of a factor in terms of big plays and scoring chances. A good late-round pickup.
(60, 815, 4)
37) Bryant Johnson, Cardinals (6)
I'm as shocked as you to see three Arizona Cardinals in the top 40, but it is what it is. Johnson is the lesser of the three, but this is the year his production begins to match his potential. A late-round grab, but only if you don't have either of the other two Cardinal pass-catchers.
(59, 801, 6)
38) Brandon Stokley, Colts (12)
Another number three guy in the top 40, but this one is far easier to justify. Stokley's 2004 campaign will be tough to duplicate, but he has emerged as a reliable option in a pinch. Let somebody else grab him early, unless he sits on the board into the late rounds.
(66, 903, 4)
39) Mike Williams, Lions (15)
His presence in Detroit is actually the sole reason that Roy Williams doesn't find himself higher in the rankings. Williams will certainly emerge as the man in the red zone with the matchup problems his size creates. A late-round pick or free agent steal.
(37, 500, 9)
40) Braylon Edwards, Browns (30)
While Edwards may ultimately become a great professional player, his QB as of press time is Trent Dilfer. Ouch. Wait around on Edwards and grab him very late in the draft.
(52, 715, 6)
41) T.J. Houshmandzedah, Bengals (19)
T.J. (I'm not even going to try to write that last name twice in the same article) came on strong last season and proved to be a valuable option in the Cincy offense. As such, you shouldn't hesitate to take him with one of your last two picks if he's still around.
(63, 863, 4)
42) Reche Caldwell, Chargers (24)
Like the rest of San Diego's wideouts, Caldwell is a victim of the recent trend towards hammering the ball to the tight ends. Reche is talented and should be considered a deep, deep sleeper, so I would recommend grabbing him with your last pick instead of praying for him to still be around as a free agent once the season starts — he will catch some touchdowns.
(52, 706, 6)
43) Rod Smith, Broncos (32)
It is hard to believe no Bronco receiver lands in the top 40. But they play a nasty schedule and Jake Plummer still doesn't look comfortable, which makes any Denver receiver a risky play. Draft him late on his reputation alone, but don't expect too much.
(61, 825, 5)
44) Deion Branch, Patriots (20)
I must admit, I would never wait this long to choose Branch, nor would most other owners. But my analysis rated him here, so I'm going to go with it. Try to sneak him up to mid-rounds, if you want, but don't be surprised if his numbers break him down as a disappointment later in the year.
(50, 677, 6)
45) Ashley Lelie, Broncos (32)
With Rod Smith on the list, Lelie cannot be far behind. Lelie has worlds of talent and could blow up at any time, but not with this schedule and that quarterback. Try to get Lelie as a free agent or maybe as a last pick for depth.
(58, 791, 5)
46) Donte Stallworth, Saints (22)
There really isn't a more frustrating talent at the receiver position. He could score two touchdowns and get over 100 yards any given week, but then again, he could get shut out just as easily. For that reason, don't waste anything more than one of your last two choices on Stallworth.
(59, 667, 6)
47) Antwaan Randle El, Steelers (25)
If your league awards individual points for returns, give Antwaan a whirl, because he should get many more chances in the passing game in 2005, to boot.
(59, 809, 4)
48) Kevin Curtis, Rams (5)
Curtis could be looking at a nice breakout type of year. Keep a close eye on him, but don't draft him, unless you play in a very large league.
(57, 775, 5)
49) Johnnie Morton, 49ers (2)
I have not forgotten about the 49ers, either, but with a rookie QB (theoretically) and a TE (Eric Johnson) who should suck up all red zone opportunities, the receivers will be pretty much an afterthought in San Fran.
(66, 893, 3)
50) Lavarenues Coles, Jets (29)
Can this possibly be? No Jet receiver on the list until number 50, and I didn't even rig it to come out like this?! Truth is, Coles is allergic to the end zone and New York stand to be one of the lower scoring teams in football this season.
(61, 831, 3)
***
In my most recent draft, I waited on my wide receiver picks and grabbed Nate Burleson, Chris Chambers, Michael Jenkins, and Quincy Morgan in later rounds. This gave me two I am comfortable with (Chambers and Burleson) and a couple others that could have big seasons, if things fall right.
It should be noted that your wide receiver preference should match your strategic preference for your team. By this, if you are not a believer in putting all your proverbial eggs in one basket, you may want to shy away from drafting a higher rated player if he is on the same team as one of your primary running backs. Also, quarterback/wide receiver combos are nice when their team is putting up fat numbers, but keep in mind that during those lean weeks, you'll be suffering at two positions rather than just the one.
Additionally, if you play in larger leagues, the pickings will be slimmer as rounds progress, so you should adjust my projected round of selection accordingly.
My personal preference is to stay away from both scenarios, with a few very specific exceptions (McNabb/Owens, Peyton Manning/Harrison, Manning/Wayne, Collins/Moss, Carson Palmer/Johnson and Carr/Johnson). Rare is the case that you get a pass-catcher and a runner that both put up fat numbers, especially in consideration of touchdowns, so I have always shied away from creating such a dilemma on my teams. But to each his/her own, my opinion is just one bubble in the bath water, and there certainly is more than one way to skin a cat.
Since I'm running out of clichés, I leave each of you to your own devices when it comes to deigning your own wide receiver roster choices, but you can't say you weren't warned.
Don't miss the QB and RB ratings. Stay tuned as Matt Thomas brings you more fantasy forecasts!
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