Fantasy Football Forecast: QB Ratings

As the slow gait of the NFL offseason transitions into the trot of the preseason, fantasy football fanatics everywhere are tweaking and tuning their respective value lists in hopes of taking home their league's version of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This fanatic is no different, save for my opportunity to impose my will onto the masses via this site.

Never being one to shy away from the chance to present my opinion as fact, I triumphantly present my lead-pipe, stone-cold, no questions asked/no answers given positional ratings for the 2005 fantasy football season! Having already whet the collective appetites of fantasy football fans on this site with a past article, this one delves a bit deeper into my subconscious and gives a much more inclusive summary of my insights for the upcoming season.

Though it certainly isn't warranted, given my fantasy football credentials (hopefully, none of my league-mates respond with the truth about my credentials), let me take a moment to qualify my ratings with some insight into the "how" of my lists. I do warn the reader that I've never been accused of being simple-minded in my approach to fantasy football, so proceed with caution and be sure to have a cool washcloth and some aspirin available for the next couple of paragraphs.

Step one is a compilation of strength of schedule — the true backbone to any effective fantasy football prognostication. To obtain this, a point value is assigned for each team on a per-game basis both as a run defense and a pass defense, taking into account cumulative stats for the past three seasons and any impacting offseason additions and subtractions. This number serves as an "adjustment rate" for each and every player evaluated.

Secondly, a player's raw value is assessed and quantified, again using a three-year model to account for up and down seasons. All of these values are tied back to games played, which, theoretically, will give a rather reliable baseline for each player's anticipated performance on a per-game basis. "Immeasurable" value is factored into the player's actual statistical performance relative to offensive tendencies, injury history, and supporting cast, so this is more than just a measure of stats, which levels out one-season-wonder type of players the likes of Nick Goings who ended last season carrying the load for an injury-stricken Panther running game.

Finally, the adjustment factor for strength of schedule is applied to each player's per game rating for every game on the schedule. These numbers, when added together, give an aggregate projection for statistics each player should get if they were to play a 16-game season. These numbers are divided by 16 and then multiplied by projected games played (again, the purpose of this step is to level out players who are not starters or those who are injury-prone) giving each player a final total of projected statistics.

Once you have this, you can easily adjust these values to any fantasy league format (i.e. if a player is projected to have 10 touchdowns and you get six points for each touchdown in you league, you can easily figure that the player is projected to score 60 points on touchdowns this season).

While I don't pretend to think that anyone with a life would even care to understand all of this mumbo-jumbo, I did think it was important to demonstrate that this was much more than just a listing of my favorite players devoid of reality. And, to be fair, I warned you that my interest is borderline obsessive-compulsive fanaticism as opposed to general curiosity.

With that out of the way, let's get right to my rankings, beginning with the signal callers. My top five are accompanied by detailed analysis, and the rest of the top 25 include a brief summary of their value. I've included as a parenthetical each player's team overall strength of schedule ranking, with the lower numbers being the most favorable. Appended to the end of each entry are statistical projections for each player based on my calculations.

1) Peyton Manning, Colts (12)

No surprise here. Manning's '04 performance was arguably the second greatest statistical output for a QB in the league's illustrious history (Dan Marino's 1984 numbers are overall just a hair better, and, yes, I am a loyal Dolfan). While smart money almost guarantees that forty-nine touchdown passes are an exception not a rule for Peyton, there is no debating that his offensive scheme, supporting cast, and experience are evidence enough that Manning will again rise to the top of the charts as a difference-maker in any fantasy league format. Even with a relatively difficult schedule against the pass, Manning is a sure-fire top-three pick in any draft.

(2005 projected stats: 4,219 yards, 42 TD, 12 INT)

2) Donovan McNabb, Eagles (7)

With or without Terrell Owens, Donovan is for real. McNabb's innate ability to make plays in the face of adversity all but assures any prospective owner that he is a weekly force to be reckoned with. If the T.O. situation was a bit more clear at this point, my rating system would actually have McNabb slightly higher than Manning on this list, but, as I said, a true and accurate value system for fantasy football brings all variables into the equation and that certainly cannot be overlooked. Still, an early first-round selection of McNabb certainly would not be a regrettable move by any stretch of the imagination. The Eagles' lack of a short-yardage horse opens up red zone opportunities for McNabb and inflates already impressive touchdown numbers both through the air and on the ground.

(4,249, 33, 8/270, 3)

3) Daunte Culpepper, Vikings (8)

With Randy Moss, Culpepper is an otherworldly statistical performer. Without him, Culpepper is merely way above average. While I fully expect a marked drop-off in touchdown passes without the dominating red zone option he had in Moss, Coach Mike Tice's affinity for involvement of his backs in the passing game should make for a continued commitment to the pass regardless of field position. The one thing holding back Daunte is his history as a turnover-machine (which, to be fair, was a whole lot less of a problem last season), which may once again become a point of concern without a solid go-to guy to fall back on in times of duress. Definitely a first-round option, but a steal for anyone who can grab him early in round two.

(4,157, 32, 14/445, 3)

4) Byron Leftwich, Jaguars (1)

Though I'm certain many readers are trying to rub the dirt out of their lying eyes after reading this particular entry, the numbers don't lie, and mine have Leftwich exploding onto the scene on the strength of the easiest passing schedule in football. Factor in an ailing backfield-mate (Fred Taylor), a good defense that should get him on the field often, and an improved offensive line and you have the makings of a break-out season in Jacksonville. Again, interceptions may bring Byron's value down a bit, but rookie Matt Jones could provide a nearly unstoppable red zone option, if utilized properly. If Byron is still around in round four, jump on him, and don't feel bad about taking him as early as round three.

(3,949, 31, 10/195, 3)

5) David Carr, Texans (5-tie)

Being one of many to point out that Carr has not yet lived up to the hype, it can also be said that he has not performed horribly despite having spent the formative part of his career behind the worst offensive line in recent football memory. Also, featuring a light schedule in terms of passing defenses to be faced, Carr has a fast-maturing stud of a go-to guy in receiver Andre Johnson and an outstanding running back (Domanick Davis), which should keep the opposing linebackers out of the mid-range passing game. Additionally, a weakened defense should work in Carr's favor, as you can safely anticipate more chances being taken in the deep passing game.

If there is one question mark that bears watching (beyond, of course, the expected progression of the offensive line), it is the relatively pedestrian touchdown numbers Carr has (or has not, more accurately) accumulated in his first three seasons. Bottom line, his protection cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago and the natural progressions of the young trio of skill-position players certainly bodes well for a team poised to make big strides on offense. Carr is one that may slide a bit in drafts, but I wouldn't let him get past you if he's on the board in round five, allowing an owner to concentrate on backs and receivers in the first four rounds without giving much up at the QB spot.

(4,059, 28, 11/437, 1)

6) Marc Bulger, Rams (5-tie)

Ease of schedule notwithstanding, Bulger is not as consistent as you'd like from a top-tier quarterback option. Interceptions and a renewed commitment to the running game should impact his numbers, but he'll still produce solid aggregate stats. Let another owner reach for him in any of the first five rounds, but grab him if he's still on the board in the mid rounds.

(4,568, 31, 18)

7) Kerry Collins, Raiders (26)

A bit of a sleeper, all things considered. Obviously, Moss, Jerry Porter, and a healthy Ronald Curry give him a solid bevy of options to throw to, and the fact that the Raiders will be playing catch-up doesn't hurt, either, but the Raiders do play a very difficult schedule and face some of the league's elite defenses. I like Collins as a solid fifth-rounder, but like Bulger, his inconsistency bears watching.

(3,800, 36, 19)

8) Michael Vick, Falcons (14)

Vick is a top round talent, but has the occasional negative-point game, a big no-no in fantasy football. His running ability makes him an intriguing pick, and personally I'd use a second round pick on him, but that's just a hunch and the raw numbers slot him more as a fifth- or sixth-rounder.

(3,186, 19, 10/814, 4)

9) Steve McNair, Titans (9)

If healthy, McNair would certainly be much higher on this board. But he's not. One word to the wise, however, in leagues that employ a team quarterback concept, the Titans have one of the best backups in football and the combo of McNair and Billy Volek is much more enticing than McNair alone. Taking McNair before round six is a gamble, but if you are set at the position already, he's a solid guy to be able to start the weeks he plays the Colts, Browns, Raiders, and Rams and well worth the investment.

(3394, 25, 8/232 rush yards, 4 TD)

10) Matt Hasselback, Seahawks (6)

Another guy that you'd be best serve talking up pre-draft and letting your buddy waste a fourth-round pick on. Big question marks at receiver and the improvement of his divisional rivals' defenses make him a player with a value that should slide relative to previous seasons. Nothing more than a sixth-rounder on my board.

(3,980, 28, 17)

11) Jake Delhomme, Panthers (21)

A healthy running game will normalize Delhomme's rather inflated 2004 numbers. Still, a solid mid-round option.

(3,658, 27, 12)

12) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (24)

Not a numbers guy, and without Plaxico Burress, Jerome Bettis will still be the main beneficiary of an efficient offense. Taking Big Ben before round seven is a stretch.

(3,131, 29, 14)

13) Carson Palmer, Bengals (19)

Could put up huge stats this season, but fantasy football isn't won on hypothetical performances. If you pick a QB early, Palmer is a great guy to grab in rounds six through eight as a backup.

(3,721, 26, 11)

14) Tom Brady, Patriots (23)

See Roethlisberger. If I were building a real team, Brady would be my guy, but in fantasy, his propensity to do just enough to win scares me. Let someone else scream at the television all winter begging Bill Belichek to pass the damn ball.

(3,546, 27, 10)

15) Drew Brees, Chargers (22)

Last year was nice, but a year does not a trend make. Anytime before round eight is too early, as backup Phillip Rivers should see some spot duty this year.

(2,883, 26, 9)

16) Kurt Warner, Cardinals (3)

Fluff schedule and stud receivers should make for a nice story in the desert, but the interceptions and fumbles are maddening to fantasy owners. Hope he doesn't get picked by any savvy league owners and watch him closely in preseason, or maybe take a late-round flier on him, but don't count on him as your regular guy.

(4,081, 29, 24)

17) Drew Bledsoe, Cowboys (13)

Drew Bledsoe is benefiting here from the "Tuna Factor." Could be a nice surprise, but more likely will be the same old, happy-footed Drew.

(3,490, 28, 19)

18) Trent Green, Chiefs (30)

Eventually, Green will revert to his turnover-prone self as the Chiefs inexplicably still haven't addressed their glaring needs at receiver. While Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez help his value, both are a year older and their improved defense should eliminate the need the Chiefs have had in recent years for chucking the ball Mike Martz-style.

(3,435, 29, 21)

19) Brett Favre, Packers (28)

I love Brett, but hate Brett's schedule. With receiver Javon Walker on board, perhaps Favre would be a good mid-rounder, but that's a big if and there's no Bubba Franks yet, either. Lots of touchdowns should still make Favre a great late round addition, but don't be fooled picking Brett on reputation alone, as he certainly will see somewhat of a down year.

(3,134, 26, 19)

20) Aaron Brooks, Saints (25)

For Brooks' sake, I hope this rating is a little low. If he remains as inconsistent as recent history suggests, he may be a short-timer in N'Orleans. Late round pick at best.

(3,419, 20, 16/143, 4)

21) Rex Grossman, Bears (15)

Please don't draft him. Seriously. But don't be ashamed to watch him closely to see if any rapport develops between he and Muhsin Muhammad and to pick him up after the draft as a free agent.

(2,813, 21, 14/220, 4)

22) Joey Harrington, Lions (16)

If Jeff Garcia wasn't around and with those weapons on offense, Harrington could be a solid sleeper. But with Garcia breathing down his neck, Joey will have to improve to keep his job. If he wins it outright, snap him up post-haste.

(2,973, 21, 9/207, 2)

23) Chad Pennington, Jets (31)

Brutal schedule gives him an almost unfair disadvantage. Losing Santana Moss may help their offensive flow, but certainly the big-play-phobic Laveranues Coles won't help his yardage and touchdown stats any. Should go undrafted or maybe worthy of a very late-round flier.

(2570, 20, 8/259)

24) Eli Manning, Giants (17)

Not yet, grasshopper. Though Jeremy Shockey provides the younger Manning a nice fallback option on broken plays, New York's young signal-caller is still a year or two away from being able to fully handle the speed of the big-time NFL. Still, in a pinch, Manning may be an adequate backup, so don't feel ashamed if you find yourself picking him up near the end of the draft.

(2,952, 25, 15)

25) Brian Griese, Buccaneers (20)

Griese could be one heck of a free agent pickup, come season's end. He has proven that he can put up nice numbers, but with Tampa's offense in transition, he is a risky fantasy play. Best bet would be to snatch him up if one of your other quarterbacks gets injured, but if you don't mind carrying three at the position, he'd be a decent gamble with one of your last few picks.

(2,645, 20, 13)

***

For what it is worth, my two QBs this season are Mike Vick and Byron Leftwich — as I said in my breakdown, Vick is a pure hunch and Leftwich is my insurance policy. I've found the best strategy in these things to be to always play the hunch, but to also make sure your "plan B" is not a similar hunch, but that is just my opinion and my recent track record is, well, less than brilliant.

That said, I do offer a 100% money-back guarantee if you follow my rankings and are not satisfied with your results.

Now, exactly how much are you paying for this article?

Stay tuned as Matt Thomas brings you more fantasy forecasts!