Who to Watch in NFL 2005?

The long, dark night of the soul that is the NFL offseason is almost over. And for once in my life, I feel bad for NFL players. I would not want to be reporting to camp in the 100-degree weather that is engulfing the nation. Can you imagine being a 300-pound lineman expected to run around in this weather? Keep the water and Gatorade flowing so these guys don't pass out or worse.

As we get closer and closer to actual football being played again, allow me to offer you a few thoughts on what I am looking forward to this season. As is usually the case, there is no shortage of story lines or personalities when it comes to NFL football.

What Do You Do After 15-1?

As is my wont, I am again going to be selfish and talk about my favorite team first. The Pittsburgh Steelers had an amazing season last year. With a rookie at the helm, they won their division, had the best record in the league, going 15-1, and went to the AFC Championship Game. But with all of that, it had the feel of a disappointment. Seasons like that should get you to the Super Bowl. Instead, the Steelers barely escaped their first playoff game and got roughed up again by the New England Patriots on their home field.

Now, there is nothing particularly shameful about being beaten by the eventual Super Bowl champions (especially when they were out for blood after a thrashing earlier in the season at Hines Field when you have a rookie at QB). But still, that game hurt something fierce.

So one thing that has me excited, and a bit scared I will admit, is to see how Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers respond this year. I think it was clear that Ben wasn't able to overcome the physical and mental strain of a full NFL season. His mechanics and his focus were dragging at the end of the season and it showed. His interceptions went up and his touchdowns went down.

In hindsight, despite having home field advantage and a better record, it was hard to see how a rookie could beat a clutch veteran like Tom Brady. I know football is team game, but the QB position is huge and Brady clearly had the edge. I also know that the Steelers defense gave up some big plays, but Roethlisberger's turnovers and mistakes cost them the game in my mind. I am not saying that to scapegoat Ben, just to point out the reality of the situation.

What is exciting as a Steeler fan, however, is the chance for Ben to grow and mature as a QB. This guy clearly has game. He has surprising athleticism for his large frame and he has the leadership ability to make plays and inspire the team. If he can win 15 games as a rookie, imagine what he can do with experience and maturity.

But along with that potential comes pressure. Big things are expected out of Ben. Steeler fans want a Super Bowl trophy. They haven't had a QB like this since Bradshaw, and that expectation can be a burden. These kind of expectations often aren't fair, but they are real and an important part of being a star quarterback in the NFL is managing the pressure on and off the field.

Kordell Stewart showed flashes of brilliance in his own way during his time in Pittsburgh, but he could never seem to take it up a notch and really hone his skills and improve week-in-week-out. Part of that was the chaos of multiple offensive coordinators during his tenure, part of it was likely personal issues that undermined his leadership role, but it was also the inability of Kordell to live up to his potential in the way say Steve McNair did. Inconsistency plagued him while in Pittsburgh and continues to do so today.

In his favor, Ben has so far shown a remarkable level of maturity and again has a pretty solid team around him. Hines Ward is still the go to guy in the receiving game. Plaxico Burress left for New York, but the Steelers brought in Cedric Wilson from San Fransisco and drafted Fred Gibson to strengthen that position. Plus, fans are excited about Antwaan Randle El seeing more playing time. The former Indiana QB brings speed and versatility to the flanker position.

Also, worth mentioning is Heath Miller at tight end. The rookie out of Virginia brings the potential for one more weapon on offense. The Steelers haven't had a reliable receiving TE for awhile, and with the breakout year so many tight ends had last season, Miller has fans exited about watching a real pass catching tight end playing for the black and gold.

Of course, the Steelers are going to be a hard-nosed running team first. Jerome Bettis is coming back for one more season. There is hope that Duce Staley can stay healthy for a whole season, but it is nice to know that the Bus is there to share the load. Behind that heavy load, the Steelers also have the up-and-coming halfbacks Verron Haynes and Willie Parker — plus the intriguing rookie Noah Heron, who could be dangerous out of the backfield.

The key could all come down to the offensive line. The Steelers lost a couple of key players with the departure of right tackle Oliver Ross and right guard Kendrick Vincent. If the line can get the running game going, I am confident that Ben can avoid a sophomore jinx and take the Steelers into the playoffs. It should be fun, if nerve racking, to watch.

Okay, other than my beloved Steelers, who else will I be watching? Here are a few of the story lines I will be keeping my eye on:

Who Will Be the Next Rookie Sensation?

As a Michigan fan, I would love to see Braylon Edwards break the mold for successful UM receivers bombing in the NFL. But as a Steeler fan, I am not sure I want the Browns to do well. I think Edwards will be a weapon for the perennially rebuilding Browns, but I would guess that Trent Dilfer isn't going to break any passing records this year, so the opportunities for a breakout season might be limited.

Once Alex Smith signs with the San Fransisco 49ers, does he have the potential to have a breakout year? Again, I think the odds are low. With a new coaching staff and no clear leader on the offense, the 49ers don't really have the team to make that happen. Don't look for Smith to replicate Roethlisberger's achievement.

What about running backs like Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams? Hard to say, but there is certainly some talent there. It is a bit unnerving that none of the top draft picks have signed with their respective teams. I guess everyone is waiting for Smith to sign and make deals based on those numbers. (Note: Smith signed a $49.5M deal with the 49ers after this was written. — Ed)

I think the Miami Dolphins are a better team than their record last year, and Ronnie Brown is a solid back, so that has potential. But of course we have the return of Rickie Williams to throw into the picture and who knows what that means. Sure, Ricky ran like a bull for a couple of years, but after his drug problems and his, shall we say, motivational problems, I am not sure what he brings to the table, but he has to make Brown nervous. Given all of this, I have to agree with SC's Dave Golokhov and wonder why the Dolphins want Ricky back anyway.

Brown's Auburn teammate, Cadillac Williams, is also a solid runner, but one wonders if John Gruden has an offensive game plan and the personnel to make it happen in Tampa Bay. Mark Clayton certainly had a great year, despite the troubles, so who knows. I know Michigan alum Brian Griese would love to have a powerful running game to help open up things for the passing game, but my gut tells me this is not the next rookie sensation.

Texas star Cedric Benson isn't likely to start for the Chicago Bears given that Thomas Jones is finally getting his career on track, but I am sure Benson will see plenty of action. You don't draft someone that high to have them ride the bench. But Benson's position on the depth chart, at least at the start of the season, doesn't auger well for a Rookie of the Year type numbers. By the way, it looks like former Michigan standout Anthony Thomas' days in Chicago are numbered.

As the above reveals, it is hard to judge who will be the rookie surprise of the 2005-2006 season. Did anyone think Roethlisberger would be the one last year? This is yet another reason to enjoy the NFL. Every year, there are rookies who fail miserably and there are those who exceed expectations. Watching it live can be a lot of fun (or painful depending on your perspective).

New Coaches

The last thing I will be watching when the season starts is the success of some new coaches. The aforementioned Cleveland Browns have had a nasty streak of bad decisions and bad breaks lately. One has to wonder if Romeo Crennel can turn this team around. The AFC North is a no cakewalk these days with the Steelers trying to stay at the top and with Baltimore and Cincinnati trying to ride their young gunslingers to the top, as well.

The Steelers and the Ravens should have solid defenses with strong running games, while the Bengals should have a dangerous offense as Carson Palmer continues to improve. One has to think former defensive coordinator Crennel is going to try and toughen his defense up, but I am not sure they have the D-line to get things done.

On offense, he will need to pick a strategy and go with it. Dilfer can be counted on not to do too many stupid things, but he won't win games on his own. I expect they are looking for Edwards to make some big plays, but otherwise play conservatively and keep games close. This is not a team made to win shootouts.

One question mark is the running game. Will Crennel go with Lee Suggs the back that has shown the most spark of late, underachiever — and former coach Butch Davis favorite — William Green, or the recently-acquired Reuben Droughns? The rebuilt offensive line might give the Browns the chance to use the power running game and let Dilfer pick his moments down field.

The spotlight will also be on new Miami head coach Nick Saban. I am not a fan of Saban, but it will be interesting to see what he can do with one of the most underachieving teams in recent memory. Year in year out, the Dolphins have had talent on paper, but playing in a tough division has kept them from breaking out and making a run for the Super Bowl. They have often had the makings of Super Bowl-caliber team with tough defense and a good running game, but they have lacked a real leader a QB — or at least a healthy one — since Dan Marino. Saban will have to decide who can take him the farthest this year, A.J. Feeley or Gus Frerotte. Tough choice.

And if being a brand new coach in the NFL isn't enough, Saban has to deal with the Ricky Williams circus and sign a first-round draft pick. Don Shula set the bar very high in Miami and the money Saban is making has to add to the pressure. Should be fun to see how things develop.

So those are some of the things that have me excited thinking about the upcoming NFL season. Hang in there, boys, football is almost here.